Bitcoin Forum

I was just looking through the historical prices of Bitcoin on bitcoin.com (https://charts.bitcoin.com/chart/price) and noticed that the high points and low points seem to be (give or take a bit) fairly predictable. The highest price of Bitcoin each year always seems to be towards the end of the year, normally December; and the lowest price always seems to be at the beginning of the year, normally January. Obviously throughout the year there is plenty of market movement up and down, and some periods may over or under run slightly, but as a general pattern, it's an eye opener.

2010 -

Low - No real action on the price until July, when it jumped from virtually nothing to about $0.09. Therefore lowest price January to June.
High - Hit $0.35 in November

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 300%

2011 -

Low - Started the year at around $0.30
High - Hit $29 in June

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 10,000%

2012 -

Low - Dropped to around $4 in February
High - Rose to just under $14 by December

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point around 250%

2013 -

Low - Carried on from December at around $13 in January
High - Huge rise up to over $1100 by November

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 8,500%

2014 -

Low - Low point right at the end of the year, when it dropped to just over $300
High - Hit it's high right at the beginning of the year in January at around $950 before immediately dropping like a stone

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point just over 200% (pretty irrelevant this one, as the high was in January and the low in December, so would show a loss unless trading throughout the year)

2015 -

Low - Didn't drop too much lower than December 2014, and was at around $190 in January
High - Crept up to $460 by December

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 150%

2016 -

Low - Standard January drop to about $370
High - Steadily moved up, roller coaster style, to almost $1000 in December

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point just over 150%

2017 -

Low - Just under $800 in January
High - Around $20,000 in December before...

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 2500%

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None of this really means anything I guess, but interesting nonetheless.

Another random fact, August 2013 was the last time you could buy a Bitcoin for less than $100. And hopefully that won't be changing anytime soon.
 

No, I don’t think it is ever possible to predict cryptocurrency, even the people in wall street with all their pedigree and their standing and their experience cannot even state for sure what bitcoin will be in the future. They cannot even correctly predict their stock market how much more the bitcoin. That’s why we can only rely on this past information as a basis, some sort of guideline to have an understanding before we can even make a major decision and to me that’s only what we can do

Yeah, I don't think it's quite possible to predict anything, especially over a twelve month period. You can certainly have some prediction power day to day if you keep your finger on the pulse and stay very in tune to what's happening globally surrounding Bitcoin.

That's why prediction is hard this day because of the sudden drop and slowly increase of the bitcoin price, that is the reason why traders is earning and losing at the same time.

Having the coins earned or purchase doesn't matter. The price of Bitcoin and altcoins can go up in value if there is people holding the coins.

There's been a clear trend in past years for a big rise year end and a fall in the new year but that does not mean that it will happen again. Only so much can be concluded from the past and the future is never written. Also just because you know that the price is going to dip does not mean you can pick accurately when it's near the top and when it's near the bottom. Even if someone told you that 'in the next month bitcoin will drop 30%' you still might end up making a loss.

Your showing past years from bitcoin beginning is showing just bitcoin intercourse, it's cryptocurrencies natural activity I think, and no one can guess right about cryptocurrencies future proper activities.

Not really predictable, but you can use these patterns as guidelines. Patterns can direct the flow of the market, but the force of the news I can say can really stagger the market.

I do not believe anyone can predict the value of bitcoin. If they really anticipate bitcoin value they have become wealthy with their speculation. Its value depends on many investors around the world. Not dominated by anyone

Thats a very good analysis bro and well known fact as well since many years. Yes, bitcoin always dumps itself in the prices when it is month of January. This is thought to be because of new year where people sell most of their bitcoin for cash and thus enjoy the new year welcoming parties. This is obvious case though! Later on when people start getting their taxes filed then they start with new investments later on. The is why the bitcoin starts going upwards and this creates feeling of better bitcoin and thus more people jump into it through the year. The end result of this event? Spiked prices of the bitcoin at the end of year. So yeah your analysis is completely true and also worth studying it for this years prediction too.

They can only be predictable if there is a test net that only you own. Having that would not make any difference on Bitcoins network though.

Some very well respected Crypto people i follow says that bitcoin bottom will be a "W" bottom not just a "V" bottom at 6000.  So they expect this current dip to get near the 6000 low to complete the "W" bottom before it goes back on its bull run. And "W" bottoms make for much stronger bull rallies than just "V" bottoms.  In addition, alot of institutional investment money will be coming into crypto in May which will obviously make the over all crypto market rise (especially the large caps).  Im not expecting just a rise, Im expecting a very strong run to the all time highs this summer.  This is the opinion of very respected crypto people, and I believe it and will be investing accordingly.  good luck to you

I think bitcoin prices are low and growth is not so much as forecaster because many business men are losing their capital. Again, those who understand the predictions can increase bitcoin, they are benefiting from the business. So bitcoin prices should be stable.

This gives an idea about the prices from the past, but  that's no guarantee for the future. When Bitcoin hit 20K, everyone's attention was drawn to cryptocurrencies. That's when banks and governmentsbegan to realise something big was going on. They got scared bank accounts would run empty and state issued tender would be in danger because of cryptocurrencies. Now cryptocurrencies will face worldwide regulations, that means the prices will not go to the moon anymore.

I'm waiting for lightning network. After that price could run as fast as can

Although crypto prices are not easy to predict, but it is a fun fact to read. Thank you for putting the information together. From OP, it show that bitcoin price rise at least 150%, which is quite good for an investment.

it is a fact that bitcoin price movements like roller coasters sometimes rise very high even when there is a decrease to the lowest point. I acknowledge the bitcoin value history to the low point is in 2013, but for the big players of 2013 it is the most precious year because they can buy bitcoin in considerable amounts.

Bitcoin price is unpredictable, any wise trader or investor will never trust such predictions.
I will not buy Bitcoin in January and wait the whole year hoping it will have the highest price by December, any thing can happen in the meanwhile.
There are faster and safer ways to make profit.

Hardly predictable anybody would say, if that were the case then we wouldn't all be running around makings predictions and have feelings of FOMO. The markets would be boring, and then it wouldn't be nearly as fun as it is now. I for one enjoy the unpredictability and believe it is the reason the markets exist as they do.

Yeah, the question mark at the end of the title was important. I realise that nothing in the markets can be predicted 100%, otherwise the markets wouldn't exist. But just interested to see the overall pattern of Bitcoin's price over the last few years. I know most traders do regular analysis of all patterns and use much more complicated indicators to pick out buy and sell points on a daily basis. Even after doing all of that, it is still unpredictable, but it does give you a headstart against those that are buying completely blind.

It is common knowledge by now that the Bitcoin price takes a bit of a dive after December of every year. I think the reason

for that is quite simple. :

1. A lot of people take some profits during early December to fund their Xmas and New Year expenses. {selling coins}
2. The Chinese version of New Year is set on January 16th, but for one to two weeks Before the Chinese New Years Eve, most suppliers close shop. {less trading are done during this time} The Spring festival last for about 23 days {lunar calendar}
3. Most stock markets even close on New Years Day.
4. Many people are flat broke after the holiday season and will only recover after a few months.  ;D

These are just some of the things that cause a slow down in trading and less volume in the beginning of every year.  :D

While I agree that all of these contribute I think the most evident thing is that people have an expectation that prices will fall (because of these reasons and the past trend) and so they sell their coins, this in turn actually leads to the fall in the prices as we have seen.

I wish it had been common knowledge enough for me to have known it. I read and watch a lot to pick up as much as I can, but even though now I see that it makes perfect sense, I didn't catch on at the time. Will definitely be in a better position from now on, learning every day about different trends and how to spot them. Most of the stuff I am learning now is probably stuff that a majority of people on here already know, but I'm happy enough that I am now involved and improving. Onwards and upwards.

Yes, there is the possibility to predict what's going to happen. It's a gamble anyway. But, from what I've noticed, it works in a pattern.

Right now we should expect an uptrend.

https://scontent.fomr1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/29133771_664001250611900_732317543447920640_n.jpg?_nc_eui2=v1%3AAeFeqmGJMF6uh3TssLyvLAyVXPsTCJN_jrcRaV1Ek4xOgDlzz-lSviHJrD5x3Ek2CeNtP1y0p_ZZzFMmkvhwMSV-Z69OXT0juIFTz2g9uJoJNg&oh=1782bf2b7f071b86aa8ae4aa3b803fb3&oe=5B06D0A2

Prediction can not be correct always. Although we ca. assume that price of bitcoin will keep surging, we can not describe future of bitcoin. Therefore price hike and price fall is unpredictable.

I know finding a range for an investor is the most important to avoid the risks or to judge the worst situation. But as per the historical data. After the market crash btc have loosed it value by the 50 percent. Help your self if you dont believe me. Last time loosing the value from 20k to 10k also signifies that.
Now the question is what should be the range for the certain period.
So as for the next 3 month as per my observation 5k will be the lowest and got 1 percent chance to achieve and 15k will be the highest to achive. 20k was a act played by the syndicated group. People wont sale coins when it is around 5k and gonna hold the coins for long time which will ensure a slow

Yes I agree on that, no one can really predict bitcoin price. Even the most experience person on this feild may never know what would be the exact time of changes of the bitcoin price. We can really know that it is unstable but if we point an exact time on when it will going to happen I think only god knows about that thing. We are need to be more patience on this feild to join the price flow or else we can lose our savings and maybe experience the worst thing.

Bitcoin is way too volatile to predict the highs and lows but I think the theory about the price drop after december is plausible because people are broke from the holidays and are trying to recover so not a lot of money goes into the market, but as the year progresses people get more expendable cash and they start buying back in again. Its the only one that seems reasonable enough to me

We can not predict high low of btc but hope btc is always rising up

This year will be different, value from December 2017 (20k) is melting steadily and downtrend is obvious. Price can easily slip to 4-5K but i expect rather 7-8k on longer scale. Those with right information can always risk to sell (e.g. today at 8.200$) then buy again at 7800$. big players have right info always so they are not in risk that much.

In practice, it turns out that the cost of bitcoins depends heavily on the number of active (and therefore satisfied) users of the system - this is noticeable

Another fact is that Bitcoin is still growing, though we see it drop a bit this early month but it is still going to go up in the later part of this year. So there is nothing to worry about and just keep holding your Bitcoin for bigger gain in the future.

Yes you can predict it, based on the bitcoin price history you will find out when the bitcoin price spike.
bitcoin price always spiked on the end of the year indeed. But the thing you must find out is, why ?
Why the price always spiked every year on that time ? If there are some reasons, then we can find out
if the reasons still exist for this year too or not. If it still exist, then bitcoin price will spiked again in this year with a high possibility.

Bitcoin price is unpredictable, based on the market news, since March 7, 2018, within 48 hours
the price of bitcoin decrease from 11 thousand dollars to 8,300 dollars, recording a staggering
2,700 dollars dropped in value.

The entire market price followed the bitcoin price trend, declined by 11 percent. It recoverse
and stabilized at about 8,600 dollars yet it goes down again. The current btc per dollar is 8,021 dollars.

In conclusion, the market trend is unpredictable.

Your post is a very good one I wish I could give a merit. You summarized bitcoin past prices. It could be seen well that bitcoin always rises up every end of the year.

It wouldbe more nice if there would be a graph showing that pattern to help people trust more in bitcoin or any cryptocurrency.

I think bitcoin increase or decrease is very difficult to predict. No one knows when and how much bitcoin will increase. Bitcoin can disappear instantly. Because bitcoin is not managed by any state or government. You can hardly predict the future of bitcoin.

Base on OP's, there 3 non-consecutive years that bitcoin exceeded 1,000 percent gains. Also the gap from each gains became longer. So i guess unless there's a major upgrade on the network or a strong mass adoption of bitcoin payments, it's price will not surpass last year's ATH and we might wait for a couple of years.

Yes bitcoin price is unpredictable, but I see now bitcoin is more stable not much drop down and increase. But still many investors invest in bitcoin.
Many prediction in this year bitcoin can reach around $ 30,000 end of this year. But actually no one can make sure what will happen in bitcoin future.

I think it will increase the bitcoin we just wait for it to rise first and we're too chilly with its price so its time to buy a bitcoin so we can buy or profit bigger

Bitcoin price is unpredictable but with the previous experience I notice that the price always appreciate more towards the end of the year but let keep our fingers across to see how it goes.

wow i event dont remembered that we got a lowest of 800$ in 2017 XD
Nice list the 2500$ that bitcoin makes in 2017 are totaly havy and now we are on a normal way .



regards

There is no way to predict highs and lows when it comes to bitcoin. It is a volatile market which means it will always move in ways that are unpredictable and no one can tell when the next high will be.

The statement is phrased as a question deliberately. I am not stating that I (or anyone else) can predict the price of Bitcoin accurately enough to make money on every transaction, only that patterns exist. This particular one is a very basic one, traders use much more complicated indicators to really pick apart movement. I just found it interesting and will definitely be more aware going into next year than I was last year. It is undoubtedly a tough target for Bitcoin to finish the year above where it started, but I think it will be close. It has made a huge impact on mainstream awareness and adoption over the last 12 months, and that will (in time) reflect positively on the price. The problem with the meteoric rise recently is that it was unsustainable; now that it has dropped back, it has opened the door for new investors (and older ones to increase their holdings), presumably the majority of which have confidence in Bitcoin's long term prospects. Either that or they have money to burn, which I guess is also possible. 

I think the highs and lows at certain times are very predictable for bitcoin. The reason for this is because bitcoin is so very completely controlled by trading bots. All the bots are looking at the same signals and trade the same way. The bots all do the same thing because it is profitable for them to do so... and it is profitable for them to all trade on the same signals because all the other bots are trading on the same signals...

It's a huge feedback look that leads to crazy ups and downs. It is not entirely unlike the stock market.

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are volatile in the market, they hard to predict.
If they easy to predict, there will be many millionaire right now because they predicted the price right few years ago.

In fact, bitcoin is one of the most volatile coins in the crypto market. There are not many bases for predicting up or down time for bitcoins. Even analysts and analysts are unaware of the timing. That fluctuation is beyond supply and demand but also influenced by media or external factors.

although we are seeing the low price of bitcoin, we still make a profit especially for people which hold their bitcoin from 3 years ago. but for new people which join in bitcoin, we cannot predict how highs and lows bitcoin can reach and only the times that can answer. we can only buy at the low price and sell at the high price but we could hold for a long time just like what the people did which hold the bitcoin for a long time ago.

Actually this is the always main scenario in the world of cryptocurrencency always volatile and unpredictable,thats why we being an investor of this kind of bussiness,we must follow the basic fundamental analysis so that we can gain an exacy earning,will maybe this kind of presentation is big help to us so that we can determine,when exactly  the time that bitcoin will become high and low,maybe these things  will give a little information to us but not at all,because we must also,trust in our own personal instinct.

 :) :)    its give ideas about prices from the past but it is no guarantee for the future .while bitcoin hits 20k everything needs attention was down to cryptocurrency .when does the bank and the government begin to realise something great what's going on all had a bank account that would run out of money and state issued a tender could not be a properly closed because the cryptocurrency would now feace  a whole world of regulations .I mean the prices does not rise to much even anymore.

It is not scientific to predict that the high and low points of the bitcoin can be predicted. Some figures, I think, are just coincidences and are overinterpreted by people. The bitcoin market is not yet mature, and there are many factors that can directly affect the price of bitcoin. We all know that sometimes a small message can make the price of bitcoin fluctuate sharply. I think bitcoin price is a direct response to market sentiment, which is not predictable.

High or low volatility of the bitcoin market is evident. Although such a change can sometimes make investors fail, much of it can be predicted by market researchers. Investors need to follow the speculation of the experts, study the market, use their experience and make the right decisions. So  profit you of more and more.

I don't think that bitcoin is really that unpredictable perhaps this may have been coincidental since if this is predictable then there would have been more people that had been gaining more profit. Else, if some people had studied thoroughly the trending of bitcoin just like you did could eventually gain potential profit and this will help people to analyze in understanding how bitcoin is working with respect to the fluctuation and the increase in price.

Many analysts predict that bitcoin will be more than twenty thousand dollars at the end of this year. But I personally think that its price will be more than thirty thousand dollars.

The price is predictable we cannot say if high or low but it hard to believe the price from $100 up $20k before end of 2018 the price predicted is around 50k.

You should anticipate that, not what is the maximum, you need to find yourself the knowledge to predict everything.

If bitcoin is below 100 usd again, no one cares about it anymore, hoping that the price will go up to new heights this year, maybe 50 000 USD

I read that some people make predicting that bitcoin will go down at $5500-$6000 and I think we can make our predicting too like them and I hope that the price won't goes down too deep. and the high of the price that could reach is unlimited because when bitcoin price increase, we don't know how much it will increase and if we take a look in the last year, the price is increased in more than $19000 before it's down too deep until now.

sell bitcoins and invest in other crypto projects like Socratus very good project

i dont think it is possible to predict crypto. the market is very unpredictable. we cannot just base on past infromations and predict the future of btc.

Bitcoin price prediction is very difficult right now as mostly in current scenario it is total manipulation.

Its highs and its lows are predictable? Yes you are right there, if you are talking about making predictions but not precise ones, its really difficult for people to make clear predictions about the price, even experts are having a hard time to make these predictions as accurate as possible, but if you can make predictions that will really be exact and precise then you are a very smart person.

Bitcoin value is unpredictable and nobody can predict on bitcoin future even the fortune teller cannot predict on what happen tomorrow when it down or up. I think  the value of bitcoin is depends on the investors around the world .

It is a very difficult thing to predict, and whoever comes close certainly has big winnings. There are many factors involved, FUD, FOMO, regulations, manipulation etc. I think currently the large number of ICO's also limits Bitcoin's earnings because many people prefer to invest in a token that is in the beginning to try to catch the "new Bitcoin" and make a big profit.

It's quite easy to show that Bitcoin is not predictable. All you need to do is look at predictions from the past and see how incredibly way off they were.

There's nothing I see to suggest that predictions are any more accurate than random guessing.

No sure predictions for bitcoin, whales sometimes determine the fate of bitcoin and no wise investors or traders will ever trust any predictions for bitcoin..... Being vigilant and not too greedy is a requirement for bitcoin investors

Fortune teller can't but whales can, we are still engage with manipulations, the whales are playing inside and the movements are difficult to understand, even you have some good basic when it came to read the charts, bitcoin still showed different movements when we are expecting for some good news but instead of making some great increase it will just a temporary one and big downfall follows, there's a lots of possibilities but as long as those big bag holders are around we really risking our money out of this investment.

From the above information on the growth and fall of the price of bitcoin for each year, one can only see the almost general tendency to increase the price of bitcoin by the end of the year and the fall, and a sharp one, at the beginning of next year. So, in principle, you can hope for the growth of bitcoin prices from the third quarter. In addition, bitcoin has repeatedly experienced very sharp falls in value and it can also be concluded that the more the price will be bitcoin, the greater the amplitude of its price fluctuations.

We are very easy to talk about the past. That is what happened, the important is the future, the future will look like no one would predict.

i think this topic is often discussed in many previous discussion, and my answer will always be the same. We have to remember that no one knows hpw to predict and give the exact prediction about the price of bitcoin. Because the price of bitcoin is very unstable and involved by many factors, so we can not give the prediction about how the price of bitcoin.

Hello everybody. I believe that guessing the price of any asset, especially Bitcoin, is not a thankful business. The author of the article has done some work analyzing the price of Bitcoin, - there really is a certain pattern. But I do not want to guess - I've already invested half the money. But I would still like to buy Bitcoin for $ 6,000, so I left a pending order to buy. I also analyzed the price chart. My analysis is such - the minimum price this year is 6 000 $ - a maximum of 20 000 $ for one Bitcoin. But, again, it looks like fortune telling fortune-teller. You need to know firmly what you want, where to buy and where to sell and then you will never lose.

All this is due to bitcoin volatility because the unstable market movement of bitcoin is always as a result of it total dependent on the force of demand and supply because bitcoin like every other commodity in the market requires high demands in other to rise in price and with the previous movement in price I believe what we are witnessing right now is still part of the market. Bitcoin rise to it highest at the end of 2017 to $20,000 but falls at the early days of the year 2018 which I see as normal occurrence.

Interesting topic OP, the quality of most contributions to this thread is a pity though. Could we achieve a real discussion or it's too late?

The main reason for your observation, @cryptothief, that the highs usually are seen at the end of the year, is however quite simple for me: It's because most of the years since 2011 were part of a longer-term bull market - so it's obvious that the price at the end will be higher that at the beginning.

Only in 2014 and 2011 the highest prices were recorded in the first half (2011 near mid-year), and probably 2018 will be another one that escapes the general trend. In 2011, the immature and extremely volatile market may have been a major factor, contributing to a short but hefty bullish cycle followed by an even shorter bear market (June-November). 2014 was, until now, the only full year inside a bearish cycle. I guess 2018 will be very similar to 2014, although I don't rule out a bull run at the end of the year this time if the bearish cycle turns out to be shorter.

I also agree somewhat with @Kprawn with his observations regarding the reasons that in most years there is a significant dip near the end/beginning of the year (influence of Christmas and Western/Chinese new year).

the high and low predictions will not always be safe, so to me one can only buy bitcoin at the lowest of price and just wait for the best to happen. i mean we can all predict that it mostly rise in December but there could be a case when it will be in November because bitcoin to me is not predictable. am just waiting for the best

Bitcoin prices are predictable in a stable market to some extent. But in a volatile market predictions usually don't work. You could see that there haven't been extremely bad news  but the market was still in red. There are other factors that affect the market that are not easily predictable. The only prediction I believe in is that bitcoin always has the tendency to rise after each bear market.