Bitcoin Forum

Where's the top of this rally, gentlemen?

$ASDFFJUFCKFUCKFCUKA:LKJFDL:KSJDF0NOOOOOOOOO

More important question is what will be the bottom of the next big dip. Hopefully its $100 or less.

We just had $100 a couple weeks ago when silk road shut down. You missed your chance to buy. It's on the way up for now.

$1337

1000 CNY, 160 on bitstamp, 179 on mt gox

Top 500 then hit 200

What timescale? This week's rally will surely end soon by having a substantial correction, since nothing goes up that fast, but it might only last a day or a week and could well continue on upward. I'm guessing China will break the floodgates of 1000 yuan soon and then gush higher on sheer excitement at breaking that psychological barrier, dragging the western world with it despite the West's psychological barrier at $200. So on the scale of the next few days it could peak and correct anywhere, while on the scale of the next two weeks or so it might temporarily peak at $220 or $230, supposing China does bust through 1000.

If China really goes nuts after breaking 1000 and rushes up more than 30-40% higher, it could drag MtGox and Bitstamp through the painful memory of the all-time high at $266, which would cause the West to go nuts and we could zig-zag into another crazy global bubble. That's the perfect storm, domino effect scenario.

This sounds about right.

For those who were around earlier this year, just try lopping a zero off the price (for example: think of $170 as $17), as we have experience with price movements around there. With the caveat that that was an extraordinary run-up in spring, it still provides a kind of upper bound on what can realistically be expected.

This reminds me of busting through $20 back in January with sites set on the ATH at $32. This classic post captures the flavor of that time:

http://archive.freecapitalists.org/forums/p/32931/512906.aspx

It's tough to say; thinking exponentially makes me want to say the bubbles will be of the same relative size (that they'll look the same on the log chart, though of course being far larger in absolute terms), while the historical evidence suggests that the bubbles are actually getting less volatile (2011 bubble was hyper-insane; 2013 was merely epic), though it's true that the recent one was surely blunted prematurely by MtGox failure. Exactly how prematurely I guess we'll never know. It's even possible we're experiencing the continuation of that bubble right now, and it was only resting while the exchanges got their acts together.

I'm also tempted to argue that the stable infrastructure and general stability and "known factor"-ness of Bitcoin will make the bubbles less wild going forward, but that may be falling into fallacious linear thinking about an exponential phenomenon, because as stability increases the stakes also rise, with governments and hedge funds now involved and the financial incentive for infiltration of the dev team or other as-yet unwitnessed and even un-envisaged nasties growing stronger in a likewise exponential fashion.

Just makes me wish I bought a bit more at 142 :S

Few days ago, I've dreamed of an exact peak number of $479  ???

good dream

current top will be ....

(lol, i just checked the chart to see what would be a good guess; it is 179 on gox and i wanted to write 180...)

well, 136 € (gox) will be the top
 ;)

Well hopefully it just keeps going but realistically I'd say 190

195.83 so long as we are talking about today / tomorrow. To da moon in the next few months.

I had a top of 197 and was wrong :(

I think this price increase will be tested, and we will see a floor at around $130 on bitstamp. I sold at just under $150 and just over $166, and I'll be looking to buy back in the $130-135 range within the next week. I hope I'm not wrong about this, I feel kind of exposed right now having sold off almost all of my hot wallet/liquid coins. It will be a very humbling speculatory experience for me if the price breaks $200 on bitstamp and doesn't come back down.

it won't go back.

What's your reasoning behind this?

Let me rephrase: if we go beyond 200, there are slight chances to go down.

Everyone wants it up in the sky, miners had almost no profit at current prices, MtGox is not the monopoly anymore. This is just the spark, wait until it really ignites.

The upper bound for the value of 1 BTC in this year's USD is 1-5 million (given finite earth, etcetc,). Realistic positive long term scenario is 300k. If the whole crypto or BTC fails in some unforeseen way, it can be worth so little that it is impractical to trade.

 Let's put the possibilities in log scale (price of BTC in current USD):

10^7 = 10 million. Total value of bitcoins would be on par with total value of the Earth. This is not possible and this scenario is therefore utopistic.

10^6 = 1 million. All bitcoins would be about as valuable as the M1 monetary stock of a top-notch fiat currency such as the USD. This is in the realm of possibility, but clearly the most positive scenario imaginable, and therefore unlikely.

10^5 = 100 000. Bitcoins would be more valuable than all the silver ever mined, but less valuable than all the gold, and much less valuable than many fiat currencies of today (total value about 1000 billion).

10^4 = 10 000. This will be reached ??

10^3 = 1000. This will be reached ??

10^2 = 100. This was reached 4/2013.

10^1 = 10. This was reached in 6/2011.

10^0 = 1. This was reached in 2/2011.

10^-1 = 0.1. Minimum value that bitcoin has ever traded in an exchange. At that time there were no actual uses for the currency.

10^-2 = 0.01. This would render all the bitcoin economy worth about 100,000 USD. As this value is spread between millions of users, nobody has a big enough stock to have any incentive to care about bitcoin, and the exchanges and eventually even the network would likely grind to a halt. This is therefore an impossible long term scenario. Altcoins die if they cannot overcome this barrier or fall through it.

The market is very volatile because market participants need to assess probabilities to scenarios, which are not close to each other in outcome. In contrast to stock market, where there are reasonable bounds as to what a certain stock's value might be, with bitcoin there are only absolute bounds, 8 orders of magnitude from each other. If the market would reach consensus that in 1% probability, bitcoin's value is 1 million (and 99% probability it is zero), the price would explode to the upside as any price short of $10000 per bitcoin is a bargain with positive expected value.

Bitcoin is not in a bubble but in a genuine price discovery phase. Not longer than a few hours ago, I told that I expect bitcoin to rise to 4 digits before next summer. My friend's guess was $15. Both are preparing accordingly.

I think this analysis is fantastic long term.

Yes, if you think 5 years is long term.

Holders and sellers want it in the sky, and I see it there for sure, but I don't think it's realistic to expect the price increase that we're seeing right now without somewhat of a bumpy ride along the way. All of last week Bitstamp was fighting a $130 ceiling, do we really think it blasted through seamlessly and permanently without any possibility of backtrack?

Very good point. I was thinking of 5 years as long term, but I should probably relabel as medium. I'm really too focused super short term for the moment, like the next week. I'm a 1 week bear right now.

Quoted from the investment classic "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" written in the early 20th C by a famous speculator called Jesse Livermore:



These quotes are about "bull markets". The right way to think of a bull market is just a case where there is a genuine signal below the noise: something truly has a very large value, and the day to day news stories and flow of buying and selling isn't really relevant.
Bitcoin, arguably, has this property more than any stock in history, more than IBM or Google or Berkshire Hathaway.
Learn how to sit tight. It is not 1% as easy as it sounds.

The top definitely isn't there yet... Keep rolling fella's.

Waxwing's quotes and comments should be sticky'ed!

Vladimir, I understand now what you wrote earlier on some other thread, that it does not matter if we buy now at 100 or 200 (don't remember the exact figures you used, but that's not important).

Edit: but it's oh so tempting to sell at, say, 169 and buy back at 164 (provided you manage to call each mini-wave).

$300 by Year End.

Between 1200 and 2400

:D

I've been thinking this rally, there will be a top of possibly $200-210 before we see it start to fall if it hasn't begun its drop already.

~224

440-470

True !

People are still stuck in Limitation mentality , get out of it , No top , keep rolling :)

$160..

What u doin brah

I Rofl....good one m8    ;D

It is possible that we have seen the top for 2013! There is a resistance in $166 and most exchanges are struggling to overcome it. The most bullish scenario imo would be to spend 2 weeks here and then blast on towards ATH.

what happened to $300k/btc you scum

wtf I post a prediction 6 months ago and since it did not come true you still call me names get a life punk

your notorious existence on this forum during the bubble period is not forgotten so fast you bold turd

Im not joking, this might be the top (please don't use MtGox price). It's not going up any more :).

1. Stamp surpassed 160 already.
2. When I sell in person for cash, my trading partners are happy to give me MtGox price.

Why do I have the feeling that price is gonna stagnate for the rest of the weekend and then go down hard??

i've been feeling like this since last night. waiting for some dumps.....i have no idea, though......

 :o

People are being anxious because of the strong rise. Therefore are triggerhappy waiting for dumps to happen now. If they don't happen we'll shoot up to new ATH.

that's my thinking too. makes me nervous waiting during this calm period..... which way will it go......  ???  i have some usd and some coins, but wish i trusted my gut enough to go further one way or the other.

This thread contained some interesting posts, but they are interleaved with tons of bullshit numbers taken out of people's asses... a pity.

I don't often chime in here, but I think there's a good chance we have seen <$100 for the last time. What BTC showed after the SR dip was a surprising resilience. The crash in April didn't happen because the price was too high IMHO, only because we got there too fast. If we break $260 again, there's a LOT of upside. $700-$1000 wouldn't surprise me.

When MtGox crashes, I expect also the price to tank a bit for a little while.
I also expect it to be back to normal withing days or weeks.

190, when i wake up again

arbitrage seems to be increasing between gox and bitstamp. Virwox hasnt even hit $151 per coin yet.

$2282
december 1st 2013

New highs hit this rally  ;D

$200+

$388, then a fall back to $200, then up to $250 where we will stay until buttercoin, then back up again.

$684

Perhaps about 700-800, then a larger relapse, but the high will be surpassed ever quicker.

20 months to surpass $32,
7 months to beat $266,
perhaps 2-3 months to go over the next record, and $1000, $2000 and beyond.

Bear trap later this month as it touches $500 and dips back down to $300~$400 for about 14 days.
Then Christmas & New Year's rally to 12000CNY. ;D

$1750 in the next 3-6 months.

Lets hope you are right!!

365$

350/400 it will start to level out for a while, then on the next big media hype induced buying the price will absolutely skyrocket because the big boys will get involved

$1000 soon obviously

Why do you say this?

I mean, I intuitively believe it... This rally is so fast it seems like insanity. Just wanna know the intelligent analysis :)

lol, bad call.  :D

new try:

it will rise until 750 $ and then crash to 380ish before getting a rest at around 480.

Meaning what, exactly? Trend reversal?

Why would there need to be a drop anyway? We got enough exchanges that even several of them going down probably won't hugely impact things, the SR thing was mostly resolved in a matter of hours, major names are getting on board along with the chinese. Looks to me like it will go up and keep going up.

Also the forum is buggy, this is my first post today and it won't let me post because I supposedly posted just a few minutes ago.

Peak at ~ $1750 by Thanksgiving, "crash" to $350 but only stay there a day or two, level off quickly at ~ $600, then slow and relatively boring (ha!) climb to $3000 over 6-8 months.

Alternatively, something completely different could happen, who knows?

Those are just my two Satoshis ;)

Uh oh, did chodpaba say we are starting to run out of steam? I do not take his comments lightly!

chodpaba, what indicators are the basis for your indicator?  :)

I'm calling the top in the $1k range only because I feel that this bubble will last longer than the previous one and inevitably break the 4 digit barrier.

I say 1000+ as well. I'm not going to underestimate the fearlessness of the Chinese when it comes to gambling. Hope there are some dips along the way so I can buy a few more though....

For the Chinese to drive the stampede that far they'll have to break through the psychologically-significant (?) 4000 (and 4400 and 4444!) CNY barrier first, or others will have to do it for them. I don't know how important that superstition will be in this market, whether the Chinese are principally investing in bitcoin or gambling/speculating.

Top was touched for me at 350. My order autosold there today.

i would also love to know what chodpaba thinks. and masterluc too! this is uncharted territory, to be sure. :)

The top will be 20XX.

So should I buy back? I don't want this rocket take off without me!

i´d buy back. (hell, why have you sold ?)

The order was  put at 350 since 120s...

Probably retest of 266 and subsequent trading range before next blastoff

Spike to $500 and then a price correction.

i call price correction 360-620.


All time high, look at the spike...its going to crash hard, then pick up.

I have 3 targets for this bull run.

$372
$558
$744

$444->$333->$777->$888

3-6 months $2468

The top is $422.

/end of discussion

My thoughts:

$349 on Bitstamp
$396 on Gox
2525 on BTCChina

At least the top of this rally, after a couple weeks of retracements and consolidation a new rally will begin.

Where do those #s come from?

The double, triple and quadruple of the 3 month weekly weighted moving average. ($186)

YMMV.

1200

Thinking about the psychological barriers of $1.000,00 (one thousand) and $1,00 (dolar parity), I went back 10^3 to see this earliest bitcoin bubble (oct-nov/2010):

https://i.imgur.com/I9Oe5qG.png

10^3 later, the prices can rise to $500 ($0,50), drop to $150 ($0,15), and stabilize at $300 ($0,30), preparing the path to $1.000 ($1,00) during the following months.

Given some projections, actually it seems that it can go way higher, but $1.300,00 is the price of an ounce of gold, and that it's THE ultimate psychological barrier. It feels too early in the game to come close to that price.

The selling will start at $500 (for my part). And I will probably regret it afterwards.

I say $650.

I am mildly concerned over the Chinese superstition regarding the number four (as in four yuan per mBTC) at this price point, so that's not a bad guess. Or maybe they won't care about that and just buy all the way through as quickly as possible. :)

266*(266/31) = 2282

I like this notion, but there is one subtle difference in that we retested ATH after only seven months instead of two years or so. That said, the exponential trend line offers a (very) rough guide as to future expectations and overbought versus oversold conditions. $1/mBTC is due in the back half of 2014, so it looks rather bubbleicious should that arrive much sooner. History suggests weekly price doubling, even for bitcoin, isn't sustainable so I'm making considerations about diversification and when/if/how to go short. There's a bit more money at stake now than during the 260 runup. :)

Looks like the top is in, perhaps not THE top but for the coming days and weeks I don't think we're going to retest these ATHs again. My targets were too low for BTCChina and Bitstamp but MtGox is pretty damn close. :)

The theoretical top for Gox was 378$, because of low volume it couldn't climb higher. China went up a lot at the same time.
And then the rebound on Gox climbed higher than the top, to 395$, because the volume and bullishness returned. Crazy!

are you saying we already reached the top? i was thinking we just needed a very deep correction because of the velocity of price movement. which we have had. not sure how much lower it will go, but i think there is some fuel left to the rally. just need to consolidate first.

I'll put on my rose coloured glasses, I see a lot of demand coming from existing traders, investing virgin fiat. (So this rally is partly supported by the old guard and poised for a huge correction from where we are now.)

There is also new investors testing the water with a sub $1000 investment a lot of them investing at sub $100.

Then there are the new oligarchs, some invested in mining and they have been snapping up a lot of coins off exchange behind the eyes of the traders. (I've herd a few mention coin supply has run dry.)

There are also the SecondMarket converts who will spin this off by investing directly in Bitcoin, leveraging there public investment in the ETF's (and some speculation the Winklevoss will get SEC approval)

Then there is the upcoming presentation to the US Senate and the resulting insight.

Not to mention I've noticed more public opinion on why we need something like Bitcoin, indicating people get it.

So I'm going out on a limb and call a top in 6 to 9 month's of around $30,000 give or take a handful of flash crashes like we have just seen 30-50% volatility on the way up.

i will send you 50 000,- us $ if you are right. with love.  :-*

Already hit the top this time around. Investors are getting wiser, and everyone is anticipating a big drop like in April. We're likely to see a bear market as investors lose interest and the price eases down to the $150-$200 range by year end.

one month ago this would would have been seen as optimistic. kinda changed now. sub 200 is history.

When I saw it fall from $395 I thought it would be the top, until then I had no idea. At that point the volume to sustain could not be found. Right now I think we are in the phase of people thinking they are buying cheap, plus some whales who are trying to pump to sell the coins other whales dumped on them.

I think a big crash will be seen in China, as they are newer to BTC. They went almost $50 above Gox, and are now lagging. So consider getting on a Chinese exchange. I took advantage of the $1 difference in LTC there to get in.

So I guess now we are calling the bottom. There has been a serious amount of money put into BTC at prices above 200 and 300. If these people wake up and find the price is 250, there could be some serious panic selling, snowballing. However, to counteract this I think there will be a lot of people ready to catch the falling knife. If BTC were to continue a steady growth as from about July, we'd be looking at 120-160. So I think the bottom will be either a bit below or above this, depending on how frantic the panic is and how determined people are to buy on the way down.

In this spike we must have seen at least $100,000,000 come into BTC. If 25% of that goes on panic sells, it should fall to the mid-100 range.

Will it come below $280 anytime before the new year ? So desperate to buy my first BTCs

$550, or $800. Bitcoin has not had two 'tall bubbles' in a row since its inception. We might a short bubble like in 2012 instead. I feel the resistance at each level getting progressively heavier and more violent. Eventually it will be too much for the bulls to handle and they will turn into bears.

It is always impossible to predict the top of any given market especially if the market has limited-supply and increased-demand which is seen exactly now on BTC. Four digits is more likely than two digits in this kind of environment (limited-supply, increased demand).

Yes it could.  Have your funds ready.

523 $

Bitcoin works on waves of enthusiasm as new investors and new money seeps in. But once the bull rush loses momentum and interest trickles down, it will likely fall well below $280. I'd be surprised if it isn't in that range again or lower by next month.

Around 650-700 or 1200 based on previous bubbles and where we might be now in relation to them.

If I am right I expect a cake

Methinks we'll see a mass sell-off within the next week, judging by historical data. Top will be ~$400 USD then we'll see it drop to just over $100 again.



Me too.

What historical data?

Basically how the crash back in April went down (I wasn't around for the first major crash). The remarkably steep slope in the price increase has me convinced this isn't sustainable growth, so we'll be seeing a major correction soon.

my WAG:

$1975 if the Senate hearings are not negative
$524 if they are a catastrophe

$500 will be broken through and then we will crash shortly after.  :)

Spike up to $2000 and a disastrous collapse to $800 where it will stagnate for a few months? Sweet! :P

Chodpada what's your current thinking, along the same lines?

I think the last chance to buy below $300 was last weekend..
Any historical data that points to a 80% crash is based on the assumption that our only exchange is MtGox, which is not the case anymore.
I'm convinced that in a few years, anything below $1000/BTC will be considered cheap.

I cannot wait till next EU countries starts collapsing, I'm sure we will have a party in here. :)

I heard the same thing when it hit $200+ and it wouldn't touch "double digits ever again." Within a few weeks, I was buying more at $70-80.

In other words, have we started capitulation? And the market is completely clueless about it yet?

yikes! thanks for your input.  :)

do you take EW theory into consideration at all? i am trying to figure out if the next correction is wave 4 or ABC corrective...

Really?  Where on the chart was it $200+ and then $70 "a few weeks" later.  Maybe the day it hit $266 for 1 minute, because that's when a friend of mine got in for $70 (so lucky).

We'll never see the $100s again.

This rally:

522.5


Next rally:
Between 950-1338

522.5$? not 522 or 523? lol

$1,000

or the $200s

$720 top

If we haven't topped already, I'm going to say 832$

3000$

i think we are approaching the top. maybe we break $500 or so, but i think we start pulling back not long after, if we do. but what do i know, LOL? i haven't had the courage to pull the sell trigger yet.

Took my meds  ;D i feel better now

Infinity and beyond. Or 550$. One of them for sure  :P

looks like we got that pullback and recovery! let's see if we can't hit $500 or so before a real pullback.  :D

The moon!  :D

i am the top bid I win!  ;D

I believe ~440 was the top.
It's all downhill from here.

https://i.imgur.com/Jl3U1qu.png


I sold my coins at 420 in btc-e

top of 845, crashing to 666.

Question: why are this post in any way interesting, since they contain random numbers pulled out of user's asses?
What's the point of giving random predictions, if you don't explain the exact reasoning why you predict one specific number?
Is anyone actually reading this shit, or is everyone just in write-only mode?

When will people learn there are no elliot waves in bitcoin.

$2,000

They never learn to avoid obvious scammers, nor to stop pulling idiocies out of their asses, let alone green dragons with red hair.

Mtgox price?

Top?

chodpaba delves deep, yet important changes tend to occur spontanously

We are close. Top already? Also 3000¥.

There is no top, it never stops

Close in time - but not necessarily in price - the last jump can be pretty high.

But you're the mofo oracle!  ;D

Anyway, I don't know what to make of this rally, all I can say is that it hasn't yet had the frenzy that preceded 266 and 32 and for me that's unchartered territory. We've had low volume ath's and the 6hr and 12hr charts are screaming overbought and lost momentum....yet here we are.

Its boring in a way but since this is in the speculation category these are the topic you should be expecting. So I will call the top $2000 :)

sure, but since I'm aware of your intention to use Gox, Bitstamp and BTCChina (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=318088.0) as sources for your estimations I was wondering if you already have something in place. 

I believe this is genuinely the most accurate call yet, we have all been found out as not having a f'in clue.  I reckon we dip before 1k but hit 1k by next Feb.

I assure you we have all given these number gr8 deal of thought...

I stand by my 3000$ prediction for the top

anyone thinking the top is less than 1000$ hasn't a clue whats going on, and trades purely on emotion.

Any chance you could elaborate on your method/reasoning/thought process for that prediction?

It'd be interesting to see if you would put your money where your mouth is...

in a nut shell ....

http://youtu.be/Qsma7OGcp6A?t=1m20s

 ;)

Btw, that means he pulled it out of his ass.

To me that screams $1200  :P

Over $9000.

I hope.  Its amusing seeing people sell out at sub $400 only days ago.  Crazy.

Top of this rally is probably around $500-$600, then correction to about $250 comes.
Saying over $1000 is just wishfull thinking

Guess I'd better start backpedaling...no cake for me :(



Oh well. The massive value gain in my wallet is an excellent consolation prize.

$4500-5000

The game has changed, the sky is the limit. 



This is not a stock, this is not one nations currency.   This is something which is unprecedented and only time will tell.  Take your knowledge of economics, and what you think you know about crypto and throw it out the window, it's useless.  Just grab onto something and hold on.

Fixed that for you! :)

It's at 670 right now. Hmmm, the top has been reached. Back down to ca 250 soon.

Of this bubble? $1000 very soon. Then bang, bubble burst.

At BTC china the top price was 800 USD (4879 CNY) few minutes ago.

What number would make you sell your bitcoins?
Mine is $1000 USD x btc. I think that if I get there I will sell at least the half.

We're climbing fast. I've been calling $20b market cap by next July for a while now, but there's a very good chance we could be there by year's end at this point. If you believe in the $1t market cap, as I do, you're a fool selling at $1000.