Bitcoin Forum

We failed to close above the 200 day and we just got a very bad death cross, both signalling an upcoming hard sell.
We'll see $6000 real soon and i think we'll drop much lower even.

Thoughts? Why has bitcoin failed again to recover? MtGox? Governments? Criminals selling off?

We can't say yet but if bitcoin backs to $7k level I think it will crash again up to $6k. I see no more bad news about cryptocurrency aside from banning the advertisements in fact a lot of good news during G20 summit but yeah, it looks like its not able to break the resistance. We can wait for more weeks and I believe it can finally break that wall and go even higher.

Lol, I have a feeling if bitcointalk started banning ads we'd see even more of a price crash. BTT is where crypto was born and this is still the first place people go to advertise ICOs.

the death cross signal or chart analysis in general isn't any predictive factor for future price development.

in the best case, its a self fulfilling prophecy - in the worst case you gonna loose money due to irrational trading behavior.

just hodl

Once upon a time I recall there was a Golden Cross that took place. This caused a vast amount of excitement and the stroking of many a genital as it was so rare.

What then happened?

Sod all.

I think it's normal that we see the price decrease after the price increased from yesterday, It wasn't failed honestly you are trying to spread another FUD and it's likely you are telling other bitcoin holders to sell their bitcoin that could result of panic selling.

I suggest you to better stay hodl and don't use the news for now as your signal that bitcoin is going to die or drop back to $6k value because anything you read from blogs is Fake like "google bans crypto ads"

Bloggers are always making an article that could be trending just to get more visitors.

No one knows what will be the price of bitcoin it will still depending on the demand and supply.

So, hodl and support bitcoin to keep the price stay at current level or increase again back.

DOOOOOM

Talk about optimism.

Bitcoin has been recovering since last tuesday, price was 7400, we're now at 9k, even the 1w charts show a 14% increase in the price.
But just to be clear, the thing about MtGox is done, the trustee already sold enough btc to pay off the creditors, there's no future sale of the remaining btc.
Governments? have you read anything over the last few days or weeks that makes you think that goverments are doing something behind the scenes to stop the btc price from recovering? did you even read the statement from the G20 about cryptocurrrencies?
Criminals selling off? that's dumb.

Friendly advice: stop spreading FUD.

Maybe you are a failed person but i'm not. Because i'm always optimistic with the growth that occurs in bitcoin.


It is unlikely that bitcoin will return to $ 6.000, because the results of the G20 meetings have brought a positive change in bitcoin prices, i'm sure in a few days more people and companies will probably adopt bitcoin and bitcoin will move easily to $ 10.000, $ 11.000 and $ 12.000.

All that technical "analysis" does not matter. As long as Bitcoin is at these low prices, all we have to think about is to buy as much as we can then wait for the next halving.

Trust me, by the next halving around May 2020, we would be seeing Bitcoin trading above the all time highs.

Not necessarily. We tagged the MA200 and naturally, we pulled back. The MA50/MA200 death cross hasn't actually happened. It might if there is a pronounced selloff here.

I've noticed often times when the MA50 and MA200 meet, it's a "crossroads" moment. Sometimes there's a selloff that confirms the cross. Sometimes there's a pump that rejects it. Pivotal moment!


Possible in time, but I'm still thinking we need a solid bull trap before we go to retest the lows. Bears need punishing too. :)

By the way..... Is that you, kwukduck? ::)

One thing I learned about Bitcoin is that any surge and any slide can be attributed to anything true or just imaginary especially after the whole thing transpired. We have become good analysts on anything related to Bitcoin but we know that Bitcoin can move up or down anytime even without any reason behind. How many times have we been surprised by Bitcoin? How many times have Bitcoin been declared to be dead? As far as I know there is no single person or any group that can categorically say what can happen next with it...all are just guesses.

Now that we're in a situation where there is not even a single day of bad news. Perhaps, it is the games of governments. Isn't it strange that you have bad news every day? I don't know what to do anymore.

@Wind_FURY - Correct, all it takes is a bit of patience & people to HODL for a few years. All these noobs can’t handle it & sell off after a price correction or dump.

It’s fucking embarrassing tbh

this is A hot potato. There is no bad news about price reductions, that prices are down because of the bitcoin characters that can go down at any time, but I see little research after a lot of positive news has sprung up especially G20 showing a positive policy for the future, I hope there is more continuation of the news. There will be an increase in prices in the next few months and show a positive trend for bitcoin, all should realize it without your realizing it.

I wouldn't focus too much on TA in that case.
Remember we were going up for 2 years. So we are just retracing for about 3 months now, this is nothing!
Although we know anything can happen with Bitcoin, therefore the honeybadgers decides to moon out of nothing, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more months of consolidation with some minor up and down swings in a range of 6-10k. Even new lows aren't out of question for me.
If you're in for long just hold and wait until the market reverses. So far we're still in a bear market.

I think it is not strange. In fact, I see it as natural considering bitcoin transactions had been slow and expensive in the past few months and many new users have got in with the mindset get rich quick in bitcoin. I also don't think that the government is playing games with us. If they do that, I don't see their games that profitable because they will use more money than what they will gain by making btc price go down.

Death cross? How long you've been investing and holding in cryptocurrency? Yesterday?

Tell what you want to tell there is even someone on our group chat that even said there will be a massive drop that bitcoin will lead to $3,000 and he even said "MARK MY WORD".

Failed again to recover? So what's the price of bitcoin last year?

Ah yes, just ignore TA. TA is for all those millions of professional loser economists and traders that run the world business and economy.

HODL is the game!
The game that is the bitcoin scam. The scam community has to come up with some hype buzzword to draw in investors and make sure idiots keep buying "low" while early adapters sell at premium ridiculous prices and get filthy rich without ever moving a finger to contribute to society!

Death cross.  ::)

There is only supply and demand. Death crosses are for stocks, bonds, and other assets that can die. Bitcoin does not need your money.

if you look at each of the previous major dumps from the ATH you can see each of them are getting smaller and smaller and all of them without exception started with a huge FUD.
right now there is no reason for a drop but only reason for a rise. and unless a fresh FUD starts up i don't see any major drops either.

just because $9500 is not the price we are seeing doesn't mean there will be a drop. it is more like a retracement before testing it again from where i am standing.

More bitcoin delusion.
It DOES need our money, if people don't keep buying and the early adapters keep selling it will be worth nothing in no-time. That's why it's a scam and people are calling it out for it!

Technical analysis has been wrong a billion times in bitcoin. All the analysts that are now playing the "death cross" game called a top of $7500 for 2017, then we went to $20000. A bunch of idiots thought that "professional technical analysts" predictions couldn't fail, but that is exactly what they did, so all of these people now want lower prices to get back, in which group I suspect you belong to.

On a long enough time, your posts will look as stupid as this:

https://cdn.pbrd.co/images/Hd6w0WP.png

So be careful with these shorts my friend, or you may go bankrupt and not able to buy back the dip, which is what you all obviously want. Anyone that has been here for a couple of years isn't stupid enough to claim "bitcoin is a scam and it's going to die". Translation of that is "please price, go down, I sold and I need to buy back in cheaper".

On the other hand, holders on a long enough timeline can only meet one destiny: to get rich as fuck.

Right, explain to me why i would want to hold something that is outdated so much? You realize Bitcoin is OLD right? It only works for a small group and not as P2P Cash as Satoshi Nakamoto intended it to me.
For that goal we now have several 4th Generation Crypto currencies that scale to hundreds of thousands transactions per second, don't ruin the planets climate, are more secure and have proper governance built in.

Kwukduck, THAT IS YOU!

I have missed you old friend.  And it is good to hear from you and your "predictions".  Clearly bull market boom times are ahead for BTC since you have confirmed it, in reverse.  Your record is flawless, in the opposite!

Recovery from the downward trend is process that require time and positive news in favour of Bitcoin and other altcoins and not the FUD that emanates from different source that has led to panic selling in recent time.

Hahaha! I was about to make the same post! OK EVERYONE! It is time to start buying this dip. Kwukduck, who is hiding in the not so obvious username "cryptokwuk", has given us the signal of doing the opposite of what he predicts.

Thank you for this, Kwuk. It made my decision to buy this dip easier. 8)


"Old" but still ahead of everyone in security and reliability. Plus look! The market also prefers Bitcoin over the rest.

If you want "P2P cash", go use an altcoin like Bitcoin Cash or Dogecoin. No one is stopping you.

Very true and the fact that it happened in 2014/2015 does not mean we will end up seeing the same thing happening this time around. The market is not looking bad presently and I would not be surprised to see it breaking some resistances in the coming days.

Moreover, since we had the bounce from the $7k region, it already gave some hope and things are changing fundamentally towards the positive, so we may just see these MAs (50 and 200) never meeting.

Bitcoin is well above $6k which was the lowest of the low. So it has recovered, it has not failed to recover as you have suggested.

I agree, we may be seeing $6k soon but that's going to be temporary. The price should again recover to at least $8-9k if the price does hit $6k, but for now, I think it's just a short correction that will stop as soon as the $9.3k resistance is broken.

2018 was never expected to be bullish, anyways.

I mean what else do you expect coming off a year where BTC's price grew 2000%. Do you expect the exact same thing to happen? Come on, obviously there's got to be some profit takers and corrections to consolidate the price to a more reasonable level. And that's exactly what's happening right now. Nothing surprising. But the process is definitely sped up via all the new regulations coming out that is scaring the crap out of traders.

Yes, there is no bad news, the atmosphere is gradually changing and I do not see how this would really be the case. Before we even see the 50 and 200MA crossing, we should have seen a huge bounce already in the market with volume kicking in. I do not know, but at least I expect the bulls to be somewhere around the corner, ready to do something.

Moreover, OP kind of guys all should stop all this bullshit with the death cross, it may be looming but does not mean it would happen. We are bouncing and volume can kick in, and at least let it cross first before spreading some unnecessary panic. I know this would not be good because that would cause some panic dump in the market but, I feel we have gotten past this stage already once we show sign of recovery and strength.

No such thing as better than Bitcoin, so no, Bitcoin is not outdated, and no, none of these "4th generation crypto currencies" (whatever this shit means) offer anything worth anyone's time. I guess you are stupid enough to have fallen for the IOTA scam and any other of these DAG, DPoS or whatever other scams which pretend to be viable replacements for pure PoW. This explains everything. Well, what can I say? other than sorry for your loss.

It's wrong no more often in Bitcoin than other markets, especially now that we have a more liquid market. The problem is that most people (especially novices and laypeople) assume that TA is predictive. It is not, at least not outside the scope of generalized probability.

A chart setup will always fail a significant amount of the time. Trading successfully is about quickly cutting the losses from those failures while maximizing the gains (letting your winners run, rolling stops up).


That's probably not true. "Golden crosses" and "death crosses" are long term lagging indicators. Nobody who trades based on them would have called a top at $7,500.

Maybe what you say is true of permabears, but then your bone to pick is with permabears, not TA.


I don't like to think of it as predictive. It's a lagging observation of cyclical trends. A death cross after long term bullish trending just means that price is no longer recovering during bearish/corrective cycles as before. That can indicate a marked change to the trend. It doesn't necessarily mean doom, but it's one indicator that an uptrend is no longer intact.

Ah, finally somebody who gets it.

As others began to explain, BTC is not beholden to the trader psychology theories that underpin classical technical analysis. That's because its not a stock or a commodity -- its essence is digital and its nature is changing all the time.

BTC has a price ceiling which is determined by its average transaction fee. If the ave tx fee goes too high, BTC loses its intrinsic value as a currency and is no longer competitive. That doesn't happen with commodities. The amount it costs to trade gold is always flat regardless of its price or current popularity.

"Its essence is digital?" If I say the essence of gold is metal, does that tell you something about how the gold market moves? I don't think so. What does it have to do with anything? The nature of Bitcoin is not changing all the time. It's rather society's opinion towards it that changes. This boils down to markets.

It's very simple: Bitcoin is bought and sold like anything else. The market is necessarily determined by supply and demand, like any other market. Why would it be immune to market dynamics, the understanding of which underpins TA?


Take a chart of median/average transaction fees paid over time (https://bitcoinfees.info/). Then lay the chart over a Bitcoin price chart (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitfinex/btcusd) for the same period.

Seems like the opposite is true. As fees rise, so does Bitcoin's price.

Actually it is. Recently a new version of Core was released that contained some upgrades that helped scale bitcoin and reduce tx fees.


For most of its history it wasn't and its rise has been uniquely spectacular. However, when the price goes higher, the ave tx fee is bound to simultaneously increase, due to people shelling out more BTC to speed through a transaction. Trading stocks and bonds and commodities doesn't work this way. Most trade brokers offer a flat trading fee -- it doesn't change with the price of the security being traded.


Okay so I did what you asked. BTC reached its all-time high on 12-10-17. The all-time high for fees was on 12-20. So what was your point again?

Anybody can read anything however they want to and make a compelling argument for their prediction. I believe bitcoin's upward potential is limited by an increasing non-competitiveness in transaction fees, which means its intrinsic value morphs according to its price, or adjustments made to the Core client.

That's why its different from anything that's ever been traded before: first of all, unlike most things that are traded, it was built to be traded. It just so happens that because of the way it works, as it becomes more popular and the system gets strained, people have to pay more $$ to rush their transaction into the next block. This causes it to lose some of its innate value as a currency. That's what its for. It's not meant for speculation. Then again, most things that are traded aren't.

How does that change the "nature of Bitcoin?" A new version may affect the network's prospects for scale and adoption (fundamentals), the perception of which affects supply and demand. So what? Like all markets, everything boils down to supply and demand.


If transaction fees rise over time, why does it follow that TA doesn't apply to Bitcoin?

If stock brokers have flat fees, why does it follow that TA doesn't apply to Bitcoin?


Um, peaking only 10 days apart just proves my point.

• Both fees and price significantly trended upwards throughout 2017.
• After both fees and price peaked in December, they trended downwards throughout 2018.

You argued that fees had a negative correlation to price. Any data to support that? Because you're ignoring an obvious and established correlation which suggests the opposite.


You're saying that demand is limited by fees. I get it. The idea is not intuitively wrong if Bitcoin's only value is cheap fees (I disagree). Anyway, I was just pointing out that the evidence isn't there.


No it wasn't. It was built to remove trusted third parties from financial transactions.

No, I didn't. We're actually in agreement on this. Its just that you said price follows fee and I'm saying its the other way around.

You're now just arguing with me for argument's sake.

My thought won’t be as negative that anyone does. It isn’t failing to recover, it does recovered in a slight and slowly phase that is different from than the much faster happened last year. Mtgox is already a done controversial news and happened to be used in FUDs to strongly crash the market. They have given an statement regarding this issue and that’s good enough.

Who even cares? Let the death cross happen, and then we will be gladly buying more at the end of the day. This is just a way to panic some people in the market, but from the look of things and the news going on, I want to believe that we are going to have good times ahead of us from the bounce we already had. It is just plain stupid for anyone to be panicking right now when the market is about to set off for another bull run.

As much as I believe that the 50 and 200MA will not cross on the daily chart, one must also be ready to get careful in the market as things are presently. I am very optimistic though that we won't get to see any doom, but if that happens, I am so sure, the bear rally is going to be a huge one, and that is one that would set us way down lower. Let's just see how this would suffice in coming days.

I think we guys shouldn't let mathematics to fool us. Bitcoin is returning to sane levels and consolidating. Its not losing confidence or trust. Every pther price drop gives us good entry point so I am waiting like 'hunter' to accumulate more bitcoin.

Well now you're just confusing things. I didn't say price follows fees. That would imply causation. I merely said there was a correlation between BTC price and transaction fees that is at odds with your theory.

You actually went further than mere correlation. You argued they have a causal relationship (higher fees causes lower price):


I don't believe BTC price and transaction fees have a causal relationship. I believe the correlation exists because higher demand = higher price, and higher demand = higher network activity. So price and average fees rise together, but one doesn't cause the other. They are both caused by spikes in demand to own/use BTC.

Someone is nervous. This lion you can't kill so easily. Waiting for more panic and it will turn over again.
Up and down we go as always.

If I'm not mistaken the death cross is used as a signal in more traditional financial markets like stocks and is a fairly accurate signal but has it ever happened before in crypto that the cross has formed and what was the result of this if it did happen?

I'm not worried about the future. Bitcoin is a very good idea. She can't go anywhere. Now many potential investors are ready to buy bitcoin but they are afraid that bitcoin will never become a currency and will forever remain a speculative asset. Without bitcoin upgrades, we should not expect price increases. To increase prices, you need to forget about the legalization of bitcoin and Fiat.

I think it's pretty clear by now what this signal means.
LOL.

During the last DEATH CROSS, the price of BTC was 250 USD (2015 summer). Sınce than 50 days EMA have never been under 200 days EMA. At the moment the cross is very very close. Maybe 2-3 more days if the fall continues like this.

It took only a couple of days for the trend to totally reverse and for Bitcoin to go below $8,000. We do seem to be at an inflection point - it is very much possible that we drift lower towards $6,000 as predicted by the 'death cross'. If we do consolidate at this stage, it could be a nice spring board for the next bull rally.

Sorry my friend but you are wrong. Many technical analysts use the golden cross and the death cross as a buy/sell signal for bitcoin and even for ether.
Please look at the name you will understand what does it means.

It does mean we're gonna have a somewhat extended bear market. We might even see sub $4000s / BTC in a few weeks with this downward momentum.

This could be, but anybody who was willing to sell should have already , didn't they?l
To me it seems like the hype was not into a stage of delirium yet....
7.8-7.9 seems to hold untill now.
Curious how this is going to turn out, if it should revert, next time it won't

anyway if i get stuck in a very high coin price then i will still keep my coin because if i sell it then surely i will get a lot of losses, i keep confident that the price will surely rise if this goes down this seems only price correction only and still can go back up, patience is very important and highly tested when faced with problems like this.

I don't think an investor has a concern for Bitcoin being a legal currency but one of its main concern is the price itself. A lot of people who have entered in the cryptocurrency market are newbies and all of them don't have any trading plan and don't know what to do with it. The price movement we are seeing now is the bears dominating the market as everyone is pressured selling their cryptocurrencies in anticipating for a price drop which can occur and all of them are helping it to go down more.

Just don't let the hype get you, it's just normal as bitcoin price go up and down, maybe it a bit low now but let put trust bitcoin like we were used to do. I still believe that bitcoin can recover to its normal price sooner or later, we just have to hold like we used to do.

Nothing is clear, that's why it is called a signal. Nothing will become clear until it has actually unfolded. I also did not question what it is meant to signal, I am fully aware of that.


I understand very well what it means. I know many are using it for bitcoin, but it has not happened yet so how can they know if it will be transitive. It is used far more frequently in stock markets and has shown success as a signal but we do not know yet if it will be transitive to bitcoin. That is why I was asking if it had happened previously. In the end I looked myself, turns out it's happened in 2014 and 2015, in 2014 it was as part of the large crash which many fear this one is mirroring and would suggest we still are going to fall at least a further 50%. In 2015 it was followed by a return to increasing prices for a period and barely signaled anything.

The real question here is - how low is enough for serious investors to start buying massively and hence giving a green signal to everybody else? ;)
Is it a matter of timing or just price? This experience shows us how centralized cryptos actually are.

hangover, bitcoin needs time to rest the last pump

So the current cross of moving averages reminds me about the downside power of the cryptocurrencies. Lets analysis the market and check relations between different financial tools. The whole financial markets currently turned to next cycle which bears have consistence.
Bitcoin is worst more than 40% of marketcap and this death cross on price will result more panic selling on cryptocurrencies.

Of course it's happened. Bitcoin has been trading on exchanges for 8+ years now. There was a death cross on the 1-day chart in early 2014, but it was actually a bad signal. It happened near a market bottom before a 2-month bull trap. The next death cross in September held for almost a year, though.

I don't know why people make these big distinctions between traditional markets like stocks and Bitcoin. Markets act like markets, no matter the asset.


$3,000-4,000. But it's more a matter of time than price.

You think? All right. Seems valid. Where do you expect it to bounce after that?

Yeah, I checked it out myself in the end because I was too impatient to wait for a response. a 50% accuracy rate isn't all that great for people to be putting so much faith in to it as a predictor.

$3k-$4k would be in line with the 2014 dip in terms of a percentage fall. In that scenario it took just over a year from top to bottom and a further 2 years to recover. I don't think we'll experience such a long downturn again but if we do it's going to get very painful for many.

Mtgox are the one dumping their coins and I see this as an attack on crypto currencies market. Last time that we have serious dump like this the governments was behind it and now that most of the regulations issues are over we have started see Mtgox dumping bitcoin at a very cheap prices.

The trustee already sold huge amounts of BTC and until september, when a decision will be made if more BTC needs to be sold, no more BTC is going to reach the market. Furthermore the Mt. Gox BTC adresses are know now and many eyes are on them.
So it's not the Mt. Gox trustee behind the actual decline!
What about accepting that we are in a obviously strong bear market. Two years in a row bulls had a lot of fun and where partying. Now it's the bear's time.

And just to give my prediction how low we could go. 5k is on the table. And with more fear, uncertainty and weakness in the market, hell even 3k could be a possible low target for the bears.
Just have a look on the weekly chart and spot the gaps.

Oh well, the bears is really taking the market for the first 3 months of this year, and there's no clear site as to when and why are we going to bounce. But we have to take note that its not only bitcoin that is taking so much beating here, the whole crypto market is, so yeah, bears is all over. But as we can't go parabolic for a long time, I don't think that the bears can keep this up. The bulls may be just all around scattered, but we all know that once the herd consolidates, then expect a massive bull run.


Currently we are just a shade above $7000 and weekends is coming. We all know that there are "mini dumps" occurring in those days, so I might as well see the price going below $7000 in the next coming days. But let's put a positive spin out of it and see it as a bargain price to purchase bitcoin.

what comes to you that bitcointalk will banned ads?are you ok saying that?this is bitcoin community,and together with altcoins so why would this ban its own advertisements?lol some kind of joke!!!bitcoin talk is not fool to take the rights of its own members to advertise in their own community.

But regarding to the OPs topic this is a common situation for cryptocurrency that experienced a dip,and only weak hands are being affected of this,but us?i assure you nothings bothering us.

Yeah, my thoughts exactly - the only thing pretty much predictable about Bitcoin is that it seems to show a pattern - a same behavior through the year, through different years.
However, although I noticed that I was too lazy to check the figures. Thank you for doing the work parrober!

It is worse that Mt Gox hasn't sold ALL their coins..  With them still having plenty it is a cloud over all buyers..  why would anyone want to ramp up into their next dump?

Perhaps they should dump the rest into the next Tether bomb and blow up both bad situations together