Bitcoin Forum

Miners should be sold with the warning,

You can NEVER get all your Bitcoins back.
Hoarding is safe and bitcoin deflation pays you better returns.

Sigh. :(

And they should change Bitcoins motto to:

Bitcoin: the only use is to make USD.

Then they will never sell any of the ASIC they produce :)

Might be true now, but not in the past, and the future is unknown  ;)

Should happens.

should we write on the side of food : "might make you fat. hoarding your food money will make you thinner and richer"?

(if you say yes, welcome to the nanny state for idiots)

In terms of mining the future is more or less known, the mining difficulty will only ever go up unless the process is somehow compromised and dies which is unlikely.

The next drop in block reward will really separate the righteous devoted miners from the casual miners because the mining process will just become a much more serious fiat money pit unless btc "worth" rises significantly.

The people I feel sorry for are those who were ordering KnC miners with their life savings and expecting to be millionaires in a year, they were warned.. but greed has that effect.

That is false. You can definitely make money by mining. You just have to avoid paying too much for the equipment. Most people are spending a bunch of money on mining equipment before they even bother to figure out how much it will mine.

This is just like the Gold Rush of the 1840's. The only people that made money then were also the people that sold mining equipment. I'm sure there will be stories about the Bitcoin Rush in 100 years, too.

This. And people need to do homework before buying. Some people just dont understand what dificulty is and buying bunch of asic.

I don't think is so bad, I made my numbers, but well time will tell  ;), I tell you guys in a year (just ordered some rigs)
so far I am doing quite ok (of course, I don't pretend to ROI in 3 months!, if I ROI in 1 year, I am happy)

I paid for 3.2 btc for ~10GHashes, expecting it will break even, at least in a year. may be some more for second year as profit.

Everything is ok so far, and received my 0.1 BTC as my weekly payout.

Except September delivery announced, received in late in October.

If this extends for 32 more weeks (8 months), then it will break even with my investment, which is great.

But I think it will never return my investment. :(

I hate to be the one to break it to you, but unless there is some major change in the next few months, you'll be lucky to ever see even 1 BTC.

Bitcoin won't start to deflate until the last bitcoin is mined. ::)

I like that.  ;D Fodder for a signature quote, right there.

Mining companies would never put a warning on their product, it's a non-starter. But you know that. Is this thread just a vent, or are you looking for solace from like-minded miners? If so, I'll throw out the obligatory "Don't worry, man. All will be well with your investment. Difficulty increases should be incremental from here on out."
Now all you have to do is sabotage all the undelivered-as-of-yet ASIC mining companies' operations, or marry into on of their families. I'm already married, but I've got a single brother I'm currently trying my damndest to sneak into the fold. Just bought him Rosetta Stone for Swedish.  ;)

I think the mining community is quickly realizing purchasing mining equipment is not profitable unless they do it as a hobby.  It is pretty addictive to play around with optimizing your machines.

Ouch, I just got 10 giga for 0.9 and I'm questioning my ROI....  Good luck!

mining is a fools errand.  It was good if you dont know of coinbase.  Now that you can use coinbase, you will never get more coins mining than you would from just buying coins. period.

and i payed 139.8 for my 60ghs ;)

look at it like this, if noone spends their btc, it sure as hell wont be worth anything

Good luck on ROI, hashfast is coming soon and the real difficulty hike is coming...

Which hashfast delayed again..... lets just assume they will deliver end of December so there is still plenty of time to mine.....

A refund if they delay more then 2 weeks... is more important then the warning...

Refund would be nice, but it has to be more realistic price.

Another Ebay Item closed for just over $1,000 for the BFL's 30GH/S miner (In-Stock Item) 

I can just hear the EXPRESS TRAIN GOV911 coming

Now, there are so many pissed off people calling FTC and Local Senate's Office complaining about BFL and Bitcoin Mining money loss.  I just hate to see the knee jerk reactions to restrict BTC

It's unlikely but if they do pass the bill by end of this month, it could be a major disasters in the US.

The news regarding BFL being Subpoena to hand over customer data, if that info was to be turned over to the government, there will be lots of people getting a visit from IRS CID Agents for the criminal audit on their tax returns next year.

 

ASIC selling should give 1% rebate for every single day they delay... this way its free after 100 days :)

Mining is extremely risky at the moment, say you receive your hw and it's not working or it breaks at some point and you have downtime for repairs at the rate the hashing str is increasing you will just lose money. So definitely take out the protection plan some companies offer.

For the next couple months we will see hashing str increases around 10%, come end January str increase we looking at 30-40% and the same in feb as the new HW miners are plugged into the system.

People who spent the money on bitcoins themselves just to hold are the wise ones as been proven now.

KNC gives 10% discount, if paid with bitcoins..

I think the overall attitude about mining ROI is predicated on a lot of assumptions that aren't necessarily valid.

There are many reasons to want to hold Bitcoin. If the goal is short-term fiat gains, then yes, mining is completely mentally retarded.

The endgame of Bitcoin is not something like buying at $180 and dumping at $350. Frankly that's chump change.

Let's get real about how this sort of thing could actually play out in real life, assuming that we're not strictly talking about pump-and-dump speculators. If a person's goals fall into that category, Bitcoin is the same as oil future is the same as pork bellies is the same as frozen concentrated orange juice, it's just a number on a ticker that you buy low and sell high for marginal fiat gains.

If the goal is to hold and grow a position predicated on believing in the value of this technology and not as a shady get-rich-quick scheme, mining makes perfect sense. It would be nice if hardware prices dropped for sure, but it still makes sense.

Imagine hypothetically you wanted to build a very modest position by mining for several months on some 5 GH/s Jalapeno unit or something of that power that you acquired today. Suppose you paid the full retail price of like $275 or whatever that unit is supposed to be, and after factoring in power consumption by the time you decided to take that hashing offline in several months, you accumulated something like 0.3 BTC.

Now say instead you bought a position outright on an exchange at ~$350, immediately holding something like 0.78 BTC.

Yes, of course, if your concern is rapidly cashing in for fiat, the miner is all manner of epithets: greedy, delusional, idiotic, incompetent at math, just construct your litany of disdainful remarks, all would apply.

But consider if your reason for getting into BTC is to be involved in the long-term potential, imagine several years down the line BTC hits the $100,000+ mark. Are we really going to cry about the difference between making $30,000 versus $78,000 fiat off of a $275 investment? Both of those long-term returns are completely outside the pale of anything except a revolutionary emergent technology. Furthermore, in the long-term scenario, how do we know that these two individuals know to cash out at exactly the same time? Wouldn't it be plausible to imagine the 0.78 BTC holder might be tempted to cash in at say $50,000 or even just $5000 because their decision-making process reveals a desire for fiat?

If the endgame for all of this is to build a position as a store of value in an emerging revolutionary technology, then these differences are nonsensical, because the person with that mindset is really only going to cash out to fiat to support living expenses or re-investment or whatever, because the ideal scenario for Bitcoin involves that person wanting Bitcoins.

If Bitcoin really takes off as far as say what Forex market share estimations would indicate if it hit critical mass in just that market, why should some aggressive Bitcoin holder really care if their holdings end up being worth say $30 million versus $50 million or whatever? Are we financing space programs here?

I'm really on board with what you're putting down here.  Yes we have seen time and time again that simply buying the coins at the time the miner was purchased would result in higher BTC gains, I guess, usually.

But.  

(1) This economy is very psychological.  Do buyers of flat, large amounts of BTC hold?  DO THEY?  Probably not as often as the slowly trickling miner. There is something about the steady, relaxing growth of the mining income that keeps you from falling victim to speculative sell offs.

(2) More importantly, I have done both, and admittedly have had higher gains off buying.  But nothing gave my friends more of a jolt that "holy shit, bitcoin is insanely cool, efficient, omg I want it" than a money printing machine.  They thought this was fabulous.  The excitement generated made me profits.

(3) When you mine, you learn.  Now I offer consulting to people who want to mine.  It's nice.

(4) I have been successful as an investor, but I owe this completely to my strategy of "convert USD to BTC on a schedule - ignore the fucking price."  It has worked, obviously.  I sold bitcoins on an exchange ONCE and regretted it right away.  

(5) Become a well rounded bitcoiner.  Mine a bit.  Just do it.  Because we need well rounded coin experts of the future.  And we need them in pretty good numbers.  We don't want a small collection of people who understand, and a vast majority who knows nothing.

I believe so strongly in (5) that when I sell on local bitcoins, I give buyers hours of my time just to tell them GET THE HELL OFF THIS ONLINE WALLET. Most buyers show up with no fucking idea how to safely store bitcoin, and are handing me a thousand dollars.  I owe my knowledge of coin to all my experience, including mining, and it makes me valueable - it rubs off on others, and is all around great.

But fuck yes.  These ASIC prices need to fall.  And they will, really they will.  I really hope the eventuality is cheap .68 USD cent asics that texas instruments sells so basically everyone has got them.  I think that is what must happen ... ASICS are not a secret, and the several GIANTS of the asic industry have not even turned their heads to bitcoin yet.

I have given a somewhat reasonable way to evaluate a miner's potential in my blog. 

http://altoidnerd.wordpress.com/2013/11/07/when-should-i-sell-my-bitcoin-mining-hardware-bitcoin-mining-hardware-resale-value-vs-projected-return-2/

You assume that BTC difficult will always rise. The rise is a result of it's increased fiat value.  If fiat value goes down to by 90% so that 1 BTC is worth $3 who will still mine? Some might. Most will stop or quit. So then difficulty drops and your mining gear will give you that BTC ROI. Your fiat ROI is in the toilet. Unless you have a crystal ball that can predict the future then anything is possible. Bet you the genesis block didn't predict this.

Spend BTC to buy actual products... When you pay 1 BTC to buy 0.5 BTC you are not doing any good to anyone except the greedy people that produce mining equipment...

its an expensive doorstop :)

if i had spent all my btc on it id be more pist off, /no risk no gain :)

This is so true!
Everyone is like "I hate fiat, blah, blah, blah, screw the banks"
Then in reality a lot of people are just exchanging their bitcoins for fiat.
Lol

haha, everyone want to convince other people to buy Bitcoin to push up price... :)

I have to agree with the poster above, if there was a global fiat market collapse tomorrow bitcoin prices would plummet as people would sell them off to cover there losses. The same thing happens to gold prices when fiat loses value. Everything just goes down.

Honestly the best advice is, don't spend money you can't afford to lose. Remember interest rates in US and ECB can't go any lower so what will happen if economic growth still cools off...

AGREE!!!!  but warning could be nice, so when they lose $$$, they can't blame anyone but self

In reality, no body want to lose money and everyone wants to make money... so yeah..