Bitcoin Forum

So because of the recent downward volatility I have been reading a lot of threads and posts about how bitcoin is a bubble and could crash to zero. I have a different theory: bitcoin will one day become a reserve currency!

Right now countries typically hold US Dollars, Gold and Oil in reserves. The amount of these reserves is critical for smaller countries. Bitcoin is not on that list...yet.

According to the World Gold Council, the total value of all gold ever mined is about $7.8 trillion. The oil market is worth $1.7 billion/per year. There are also 1.56 Trillion USD in circulation.  At the moment, bitcoin is worth around $145.9 billion.

If bitcoin were to become part of the reserve mix for even small countries, its value would skyrocket. I can easily see it having a market cap in the trillions.

Volatility is a key parameter that characterizes the safety of a reserve currency.The volatility of bitcoin is very high.  The bitcoin rate is highly variable even in comparison with the volatile currencies of emerging markets.In part, according to Blanche, this is due to the fact that many of such countries - China, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippines and India - tightly control cash flows.Nevertheless, as the chart shows, there were already two cases when bitcoin's volatility fell below the volatility of silver (COMEX: SI), which has remained one of the world's currencies for 400 years.

Sure we could very well see BTC being a reserve currency in 10 years or something but do you expect those entire 10 years to be just up without crashes and bear markets?

It could play the part of a reserve currency mixed with other important assets, only if volatility isn't as wild as it always is. We can point our fingers to the open cryptocurrency market for such volatility, but that's how far we can go; we can't control volatility itself since that power is beyond us--or doesn't even exist. Another thing is whether countries are willing to accept it as a part of their reserves or not. If there'd be a few countries to choose bitcoin as one of their reserves, it would be pointless to hold it since they only have limited options to use that reserve for in case they'd be needing it.

Exaxctly. I've agreed all of them. I believe same things. Besides I believe BTC will be used to supply high tech alt coins for low cost and instant transaction times for micro payments. This is simular with that goverments reserved gold to supply their own money to market. Same thing will be happen in crypto world. Companies will keep BTC to create their coins.

I think that currency people are using bitcoin as for investment and trading purposes, that are saving it and holding it as they know the importance and value of bitcoin but in future when bitcoin will become more popular then people will start using bitcoin as currency for purchasing things not only in onle stores but even the local stores will also start accepting bitcoin for shopping.

Bitcoin will never be zero in value, because the number of uses, and bitcoin is very good for fund or reserve money because it has value and prices are always increasing.

threads/post about bitcoin being a bubble is not new i even read bitcoin died several times already. bitcoin along with fiat money can be a good team in the future. bitcoin is like gold and if mix in the reserve of the countries its value will really rise.

I can not say anything to the USD, but oil and gold will lose their value over time.

If we talk about oil, the current technology is in development and people are starting to use alternative energy. Even cars now work with electricity.

Gold is so expensive that it is limited in the world and it is just a type of metal. I mean, there's a lot of metal that can take it place.

The trend of Bitcoin will not continue lifelong, generally Bitcoin doesn't worth a billion dollars, but it is the present-day trend, and it is not worthy of the current price.

There is one thing I want to correct you. Bitcoin is not a currency, it is an asset. Like gold.
And beside bitcoin, you have to notice the other altcoins too. Litecoin always goes along with bitcoin.

Currency not only has the value of a currency attribute, and due to excessive imitation of gold natural attribute, not only the amount limit, and even the output of every 10 minutes to be qualified, its production is not gradually increase, but less and less.

With the development of society, the function of saving will be brought into play.

I agree, volatility is a big issue. Although I do think bitcoin derivatives (and time) will result in lower overall volatility.

Bitcoin accelerates as a world reserve currency
Recently, the People's Bank of China has helped boost Bitcoin's reputation by meeting with executives of the largest Bitcoin trading platforms in China.
In fact, officials from the People's Bank of China met the BTCC on January 6, 2017.
The purpose of the meeting was to "call for a fair investment in Bitcoin," Reuters reported.
However, most importantly, the meeting proved that the authorities at the People's Bank of China are trying to consider the appropriate Bitcoin business.
Commenting on the meeting between the People's Bank of China - BTCC, a Reddit user, vapor114 wrote: "China only adds benefits to the MOF by recognizing that the exchange of Bitcoin between businesses is French. "
Moreover, this is not the first time that BTCC met with the bank. A statement from the BTCC: "The BTCC regularly meets with the People's Bank of China and we work closely with them to ensure that we are operating in accordance with the laws and regulations of China."

Being a reserve of value is one of the best characteristics of Bitcoin, its deflationary aspect is fantastic. It is probably already part of the portfolio of many banks, even if it is quiet, and over time it can be used for that purpose by governments. Increasingly it gains legitimacy and the tendency is to be increasingly used.

bitcoin devs have given up fixing bitcoin issues and pretty much unanimously declared bitcoins blockchain as broke(unscalable)
and so they are now declaring bitcoin as not peer to peer cash. but as a reserve whereby the blockchain becomes a locked fortknox vault for LN and people end up moving value via unconfirmed unaudied receipts of value on the LN network

only issue is LN is not a unique network just for bitcoin value. but will be open to all other values too. so eventually people wont want to settle back to bitcoins but to other chains that are cheaper fee and faster confirms.. and if they want to settle back to bitcoin there is no actual 100% guarantee they will be able to for full value without delay/restrictions/agreement by counterparty/punishment

yep bitcoin can actually scale. but devs want people to lock value into managed accounts. and charge fee's and penalties for the honour of co-managing the account(channel).
much like what happened to gold when bankers came along with paper money.

if people cannot see the issues with this. then they only care about a fiat exit price and not a bitcoin viable currency without middlemen.
remember even when bank notes said it would give a holder X amount of gold.. they were not actually holding gold. same will be said in a few years when people are trading LN payments

seems no one has learned the lessons of 100 years ago.

I would say Bitcoin is not as safe as houses, gold, etc.. Needs to be solid, reliable, un-voliatile first.

THe important word here is countries. Since they are ruled by governments and those governments are in debt, unable to function without printing more and more fiat money, they will never be able to or even willing to switch to a decentralized cryptocurrency or even a currency backed by gold or anything else. What Maduro is trying to dois his swan song. People may embrace it but governments won't. Even if 60% of people in a country wanted Bitcoin to become their national currency, the government wouldn't agree because it would mean paying debts that can't be paid, getting real money out of nothing.

Bitcoin is a currency. Yes, in some countries there so many high profile people use bitcoin to save their black money in a small count. So, in this side bitcoin is a reserve currency.

In my opinion, when the bitcoin becomes the reserve currency, it is not yet certain, because there is still a new currency or another backup, and can also still not acceptable bitcoin in all countries

This may somehow be the reason why votality is kept as part of the characteristic of bitcoin. I guess this may be a hint but more of a strategy for some. If it is therefore be use as a reserve currency for a specific fiat then it will not be for all. We cannot just make bitcoin something as a rebound for it is something for some of us.

I do not agree if bitcoin is said to be a reserve currency because the volatility of bitcoin is very high and demand more and more even they are competing to get bitcoin. so bitcoin can not be said as a reserve currency because they are a necessity for us.

Yes i think so also. One day it will be a Reserve currency for BTC holder. But it will be a challenge for BTC holder to freeze his BTC into an account as hacker are always keeping round around us. But after all if any man can keep his btc in safe side he will be a gainer in recent years and there is no doubt. Maximum county in the world are now come across BTC as they following blockchain technology. So next financial strength will be BTC.

But volatility will decrease as more money is moved into Bitcoin. Bitcoins price will be a lot more difficult to move up or down if there is $1 trillion+ in the market. The way I see things happening, is Bitcoin will slowly gain adoption through investors (like it has been), and once an ETF goes life, huge hedge funds will have an opportunity to invest in Bitcoin. This will send the price soaring, and other hedge funds that didn't like Bitcoin will fomo into the exploding market at this point. As time goes on, more people will invest in Bitcoin, others will be able to diversify their retirement portfolios into Bitcoin, and the younger generation will pick Bitcoin over gold or traditional investments.

Eventually, governments will pile into Bitcoin as well to increase/diversify their reserves. North Korea is already doing this, as its estimated they have 10,000+ Bitcoin. Once governments start to buy Bitcoin to add to their reserves, the price will climb even higher and stabilize. There will be a ton of money in the market at this point, and a 1% price movement will be considered huge.

Bitcoin has been decreasing in volatility, as in 2011-2013, the price could move 50% in one day. Now it's a big deal if it moves 10% in one day. That's because the market is much larger now than what it was.

Yes it is true many people who use bitcoin usually a lot of people who a lot of money to save money in bitcoin so bitcoin sebgai money backup

Bitcoin will become the world’s sixth largest reserve currency by 2030, according to an investment agency.

I don't think that Bitcoin can play a role of reserve currency. Because to do this it should be very stable in price and strong towards any news. May be during next several years Bitcoin become such currency but not in the nearest future.

it's really not relevant if bitcoin is said to be a reserve currency because bitcoin volatility is very high and more and more demand they even compete to get bitcoin. so bitcoin cannot be said to be a reserve currency because they are a necessity for us. and many need it.

Bitcoin is a digita currency. There so many high profile people use bitcoin to save their black money in a small count in few countries. So, in this side bitcoin is a reserve currency in the cryptio world.  :) ;)

that is why you need to keep bitcoin and not sell. I think we should follow the news from the USA

I think that no country would even dare to hold bitcoin as their reserve currency because it is of such a high volatile nature and it would affect the country's economy much.

It may be closer than we think. Many are calling this current economic environment the “everything” bubble or the “central bankers” bubble. Once it pops it will be the first one where people don’t look to the central banks for, support, confirmation that everything is ok because they’ll realize it was their loose monetary policies that caused the bubble in the first place. We’ll then be in search of a safe, inflation proof, decentralized alternative, cue Bitcoin. Total speculation but one can dream. BTC to $1,000,000. It’s impossible for a government to outlaw it and with current tech u can literally download the main chain from anywhere in the world providing u have a $100 satellite and a solar panel. Whaaat!? It’s gonna change the world.

In my opinon bitcoin currently is not at good price.As People are using bitcoin as for investment and trading purposes so it is the time to reserve them and when there will be right value of price of bitcoin then sale and earn profit.

Bitcoin is still very far from the reserve federal currency.

Bitcoin has yet to become a common means of payment and only then it will be considered as capital

Volatility is definitely a key factor in whether it will be thrown into the reserve mix.
I also think that as bitcoin ages and the value increases in time its volatility will
become less and less. In my head i figure because of its higher price it will be
more difficult to infleuence.

I would say no because Bitcoin’s ability to act as a reserve currency isn’t its core strength or purpose. From my understanding, it was created to allow peer-to-peer transactions online without intermediaries and were untraceable. These are features which some individuals might appreciate, but aren’t necessarily useful for larger institutions.

What large institutions look for in a reserve currency is security and price stability. Bitcoin has so far not met those criteria. There have been several high profile cases of theft involving millions of dollars worth of Bitcoins. As far as I know, stolen Bitcoins have never been recovered. As for price stability, Bitcoin simply hasn’t been around long enough to build a user base large enough to stabilize the market and protect it against speculative shocks.

 I think that we need to design a new better system of global reserve currency, that will handle the global surplus recycling where “the process of adjustment is compulsory for the debtor and voluntary for the creditor” will be replaced with one in which the force of adjustment falls symmetrically upon debtors and creditors.
 I think the purpose of decentralized digital currency like Bitcoin is to provide much needed competition for the fiat currencies, which will make the whole monetary system a lot more fair. In other words, Bitcoin will function as gold before the banks created paper futures contracts that allowed to manipulate the price of physical gold.

In recent times, rumors of bitcoin are a lot of FUD news, most of whom do not trust bitcoin and whale manipulation, want to push the price of the bitcoin down and from where they buy. bitcoin at low cost and they will earn a huge amount of money thanks to it.

Yes, I actually also thought about this. However, for this, bitcoin needs to grow very much in terms of capitalization ... very much. And after that, yes, it is quite possible.

Bitcoin has not created for such purposes. Bitcoin was created to remove third body in the payments and also make the payment easier and and more secure. But You might right. Bitcoin limited supply has caused it to become a store of value and that's why many people try to have some for future. Bit coin market capitalization might reach gold market in the long term. As charts and price changes over the time show, it's completely possible.

Btc is the best currency ever as it has a powerful potential. To my mind, it is better to keep coins like btc and ether always. You never know when the price may increase greatly and you will earn on the difference