Bitcoin Forum

China is now the clear world leader in BTC trades with 58,000   versus 34,000 from the big 3 today.

http://btckan.com/price

It is likely that the gap will increase further,

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/7492/baidu-jiasule-and-the-chinese-bitcoin-community/

with a 1.3 B population if 1% or 13 million want to buy just 1 coin as they are wealthy, which is more than total BTC in existence ( don't forget to deduct those confiscated and lost..anyone got an estimate on that number?) then don't be surprised if the former $260 high is surpassed very soon after a solid breach of the current $200 resistance level is held for a week.

Well, if 1% of China buys one BTC each, that's more coins than are currently in circulation. They'd have to not have all the coins all at once, I presume.

I doubt if they could even buy 50%. The accumulation would be/ is gradual and will slow as the price gets more expensive. But they will accumulate none the less as with everything else ..gold..treasury bonds..copper etc.

The problem of supply and demand of bitcoins can be solved with Fractional Reserve Banking. With 1% margin requirement on bitcoin banks we would have the potential of 2.1 billion bitcoin notes (IOU) issued by banks.

Without ability to be backstopped by potentially infinite supply creation, 1% reserve ratios will not be tolerated. Forgive me for not providing references, but I think the data points to about 10% being the limit of what humans will tolerate when there's no infinite insurance backing up a balance sheet.

Essentially, at higher than 10-to-1 leverage, humans get a bit uneasy and will likely cause a "run" on a bank.

Fractional reserve banking can solve any problem.  Ahem.

In the current banking system of fiat currencies such as US dollar, that is widely accepted around the world the actual reserve rate is probably around 3%.
97% of the US dollars that circulates in the world economy are credits, not "real" money.

people come on catch up. We got to have a little bit more. :D

First time I hear so many Chinese are wealthy. The elite yes, but most are not wealthy at all.

In china wealthy people  not necessarily must join to bitcoin area.because they have more and more ways to make much wealth.
opposite,In the middle income people will be invest a lot of effort into the bitcoin.
but if someday the gov announce or pay more attention to bitcoin,so wealthy people will coming into.but there have more  problem of distribution.

Plenty of wealthy Chinese and this is where their money goes

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2012/03/28/where-chinas-new-rich-are-putting-their-money/

http://factsanddetails.com/china.php?itemid=157&subcatid=70

 According to Hurun Report, and in Chinese yuan terms, the country had 875,000 multimillionaires and 55,000 billionaires in 2011 – 6.1 per cent more millionaires and 7.8 per cent more billionaires than in 2009. The tycoons are young, too. The average age of the respondents with at least 100 million yuan was 39; that of those with at least one billion yuan was 43. Both averages were a year younger than the previous year. [Source: Clifford Coonan Irish Times, January 22, 2011]

According to Forbes the number of dollar billionaires in China rose form 15 in 2006 to 40 in 2007. Shenzhen has the highest number of Chinese dollar millionaires per capita. According to the Boston Consulting Group there were around 391,000 millionaire households in China in 2008, up from 310,000 in 2007. India and China have the world’s fastest-growing populations of millionaires. According to Merrill Lynch, the number of millionaires in China increased 20.3 percent to 415,000 in 2007. A survey in 2009 counted 825,000 dollar millionaires with 116,000 of them in Shanghai

Thats  40 Dollar billionaires in 2007 and 317 in 2013  or is that times 3 or 950?

http://www.ibtimes.com/does-asia-or-north-america-have-most-billionaires-1111165

Forbes

For every billionaire that Hurun Report has found, I estimate we have missed at least two, meaning that today there are probably 4,000 billionaires in the world [instead of the estimated 1,453],” said Rupert Hoogewerf, chairman and chief reporter of the magazine.

The rising middle classes estimated at 500Million

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/consumer_and_retail/mapping_chinas_middle_class

Our latest research suggests that within the burgeoning middle class, the upper middle class is poised to become the principal engine of consumer spending over the next decade

http://thediplomat.com/pacific-money/2013/05/30/half-a-billion-chinas-middle-class-consumers/



Additionally a substantial amount of wealth is unreported ..could be that bitcoins may be an option for those people

2.34 trillion dollars a year are estimated as hidden

http://globalvoicesonline.org/2013/03/07/chinese-households-have-2-34-trillion-in-hidden-income/

Over 50% want to emigrate and probably need to find ways to move unreported income

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052970204394804577011760523331438

I am curious to see what the landscape looks like when all the Chinese exchanges aren't offering 0% trading fees. That has the potential for manipulating these numbers.

Regretfully it does not cause a run until the smoke and mirrors of FRB are clearly exposed and the media unfortunately continues to support the idea that it is a good thing.
I like Bitcoin because i THOUGHT the intention was to remove the ability to leverage "create money" at will and WITHOUT LIMIT or CONTROL which to many , myself included , is a fraud

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-money-nothin-primer-fake-wealth-creation-and-its-implications-part-1

Anyhow here are a myriad of articles on the effects/damage of fractional reserve banking

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-03/guest-post-why-fed-cant-stop-fueling-shadow-bank-kiting-machine

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-14/illogic-fractional-reserve-banking


http://www.zerohedge.com/search/apachesolr_search/fractional%20reserve%20banking

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-problem-fractional-reserve-banking

That's a decent majority for them then and they will stand to benefit as some of the early adopters if this really takes off.  Bitcoin is back on the rise recently.

Agreed ...........0% transaction fees and

ChBTC    0 /0.2 Dividend    
BTC100    0.3 Dividend

are obviously an incentive to buy . This will probably change once the players have increased size and share of the market from levels at this early stage. I strongly feel though that demand will increase in leaps and bounds unless the Government intervenes negatively.

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/7492/baidu-jiasule-and-the-chinese-bitcoin-community/

Why do so many Chinese people care about Bitcoin? First of all, in some metaphorical sense, virtual currency is in Chinese internet users’ blood. Tencent QQ, a Chinese company which can perhaps be most closely identified with the American Yahoo (or at least as Yahoo was in its heyday in the early 2000s), released a virtual currency called Q Coin in 2007; Q Coin became extremely popular in all sort of online applications including social media and e-commerce, but was eventually neutered by the Chinese government. As far as its user experience goes, Bitcoin, being a digital currency, is very similar to Q Coin, so Bitcoin comes naturally to Chinese users in a way that it simply does not to many people in Europe or North America.

This buyig frenzy will hopefully take the price to the moon.

Jabba

I certainly hope so :)

I have price target of $400 by Oct 2014 (mid channel of technical chart analysis) but in 2015 it could double or quadruple as dollar comes under severe pressure which they "Knew" as far back as Oct 2011. i

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/qe2-sealed-next-rate-hike-wont-come-until-2015-says-goldman

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/return-rate-normalcy-will-cost-fed-hundreds-billions-fed-will-go-negative-carry-2015-d-day-a

The dollar is already under pressure that will get worse and China is now very vocal AND ACTIVE to replace it as the reserve currency and commercial/oil trading. As this progresses it leads to less demand for dollars = lower price = higher bitcoin price as it is inversely connected.

As we’ve noted previously, bitcoin shares a generally inverse relationship with USD, an asset that has been negatively impacted in recent weeks as a result of the US debt ceiling impasse.

http://thegenesisblock.com/bitcoin-climbs-highest-price-since-april-led-cny-movement/

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-18/9-signs-china-making-move-against-us-dollar


HOWEVER a roller coaster ride to get there ?  YES

Could Government action impede or even destroy that. YES.

I hope so too. China is a big player in the BTC market!

also ben bernake. ahem. 

In Copy Paste We Trust
Amen

Hmm this is interesting I was under the perception that the United States constituted over 80% of all bitcoin trading but if this is true their is a great argument here to say that it is becoming more mixed in its origination.
Thanks

not sure if sarcasm

The name satoshi is chimesse namr that is the only reasoon chinese ppl knew first for BTC

Yes true and TODAY the figures so far are China 92.000 bitcoin traded and The "Big 3 " 21,000. more than 4 to 1

I would like to see a chart of daily/monthly volumes on each group since Jan 2013 for comparison and to see if we can spot a trend "predict" future volumes. if anyone is a chart expert and can make one I am sure the community would be eternally grateful...:)

China rules  ;D

Asian regions as a whole can really add in tons of liquidity into this currency. Something it needs badly for that price stability.

Great idea!

So instead of America controlling 80% of Bitcoin, China does. I fail to see how this is "more mixed".

dree : trading volume we are talking about, there's quite a few btc rich in US...

i think the btc china rise is a pump from the chinese manufacturers of asic that want to sell their btc high!

Controlling and employing actually bitcoins (secret keys and the value associated with them) is interesting and all, but not that big a deal.

Bitcoin as a protocol is yet young and is evolving rapidly.  It is defined by who runs what software, and that is a conscious choice made by individuals (currently at least.)  To me this aspect of things will be the most interesting thing to watch from a system analysis point of view as China takes a more central role.

Interesting theory, anyone have any thoughts on this?

I do not think it is a coincidence China was feeling very skiddish a few weeks about the US debt they own, with Washington not raising the debt ceiling and with little progress.

China is spreading its risk to Bitcoin; the USD ain't what it used to be, especially with Obama at the helm.

try it, it is easy to do algoritms

China != Japan.

BTC is a soft weapon for CNY and a way to unwind USD position if it can get into the 10T + mark.

Also I sated in Gox thread CNY was the place to go Magical Tux retorted BTC was fully illegal in CNY.

Well get a load of that volume Magical Tux. Oh and get some think tank help

Why dont Chinese people create their own cryptocurrency instead of buying into bitcoin at this high prices?

Makes a lot more sense to absorb a crypto-currency which is already well entrenched and has built up credibility and value.  As an open source project, Bitcoin as a system belongs to anyone who is smart enough, capable enough, and rich enough to support the network as a peer...at least these days while there are no jurisdictional constraints effecting it's function.

Brilliant idea. Every country could make their own digital currency ;)

I believe eventually they ALL will and this was another reason I am a fan of bitcoin the pioneer, market leader that is well established and gaining acceptance in leaps and bounds I have used a cashless vending system as early as 1993 in a Head office building 200m from the House of Lords.
The catering manager was a friend and explained the advantages as the system originally met with resistance. These include

1 Harder to steal
2 Easier to account
3  Much Cheaper to count , handle and store

In those early days we had to still start off with loading with cash before use of the electronic card, but there was a machine to do that. Now it can be done with the click of a mouse.
Governments and Banks must have spotted this and therefore any reduction in cost or theft is interesting and they will probably adopt once THEY assess that the teething problems are irnoed out and public acceptance has been achieved.

Those interested in the COST of handling cash..its here.

https://www.google.com.ph/search?q=what+is+the+cost+of+handlin+cash&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&gws_rd=cr&ei=etl0UsziKMeCkwX5k4C4AQ

I believe that it makes sense that people who unite for a particular purpose might wish to create and maintain a unique crypto-currency.  In this manner, the value of the existence of the mechanism of exchange could accrue to the union (using the term generically.)  These unions do not necessarily need to be rooted in geographic space in the same way that nations are currently.

If such a scenario developed, there would still be need for a 'neutral' currency to balance between them.  Bitcoin could fall into this role if it does not pick up baggage that renders it to sub-optimal.

Why? That's the last thing Bitcoin needs, it would severely hamper it growth....

The whole point of a digital currency, is to be able to be international. No need for individual countries to have their own. That would leave the door way to open for currency manipulation... could you imagine each country running ASICs trying to mine all their own coin? Or buying up all the coins to have a monopoly?

Lets leave Bitcoin as the .com of internet currencies alone, and leave the .cn and .eu of the cryptocurrency world alone.

Not a good idea. :(

There is no goverment support bitcoin or brothers. Goverments wants to make money with their bank system. So they are independent. There is too much dollar on roaming all over the world. I believe that even US does not know how much they created. :)

The blockchain will become 10,000 times bigger than today if 1 billion people start to use bitcoin for real, the bitcoin client would freeze since it would never be able to process the blockchain before new data comes in. We need one sub-coin per country since bitcoin is not scalable with the current architecture. Sub-coins can then be traded against a root-coin for international transactions.

I think it's a great sign that China has began to adopt Bitcoin. 

Today Nov 4 so far its 88,000 China v 46, 000 the BIG 3. (figures change by the second)

It has settled down from the "aberration" of 3 days ago where chbtc had a 508k daily volume and today's ratio of approx 60% China ....40% Big3 will likely be the norm in the medium term barring any major event.

The great news is that prices are already back knocking on the door of $230 which when well and truly broken with support will set us up to test the $260 high...very soon I expect. My price target as previously posted elsewhere is $400 by Oct 2014 and I may be lucky to get there a few months before.......

The futures market (settlement on Saturdays) at 796Market  has "traded" 18,000 coins ( approx $4M dollars) at a price range of $236 to 238.5 ............currently $237.6  they are BETTING that we will be above that by Saturday

https://796.com/

Pat myself on the back :)  2 days from post we have broken $260 and have a new ATH

futures still indicating strength,  currently at

ask high $269.89 low 266 range and

Bid      high 260  low 252.11

 37,000 volume.. equates to approx $9.8 million "bet" on increased price.

time for a pullback or consolidation? maybe

v
Arent Chineese invented BTC

the odds are pretty good at guessing that chinese invented something

China really are the ones controlling prices.  One bit of news either way and this could ride or die.

that were my thoughts too :)

A few have got shutdown.

China is going crazy over BTC :P

why didn't anyone catch this? either he's trolling or he's been chilling with sarah palin. i've seen a few crazies on this board, so i'm not certain enough that he's a troll.