Bitcoin Forum

This is a very open discussion, but a topic that needs some attention.

As an investor I always have to compare my actual profit on a year to year basis, to consider if I should continue investing in that commodity or currency or stock etc.

Let's look at Gold for instance :  https://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html < In 16 years my profit would have been +/- 343.78% >

Let's look at Silver for instance : https://silverprice.org/ < In 16 years my profit would have been +/- 256.15% >

If I deposited the money into a fixed savings account at say %10 p/a <very high for some countries> combined interest = 160% over 16years. <without compound interest> Feel free to make the compound interest comparisons.

https://www.gobankingrates.com/banking/see-interest-rates-last-100-years/

These are very crude statistics and cherry picking comes into play, but it does give you an idea what the Bitcoin price needs to be to beat some of these investment strategies.

I think my more than 800% profit with Bitcoin last year, overshadowed the profits from other investments I could have made for the last 16 years.

We need 1 or 2 good years like 2017, to render all other investments null and void for several years. ^smile^

What other investments comes close to the profits that we saw in 2017? { 1 year }  ??? ::)

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Source:
#1 https://twitter.com/erikfinman/status/955241825555681280 (https://twitter.com/erikfinman/status/955241825555681280)

For me if I'm earning 0.2 btc a month. I think for me it beats my other investment. Can't wait to enter trading to profit more.

No investment is as profitable as bitcoin, if we consider classical investments (not ICOs), being the more like it the investment in new companies, especially tech ones. However, high potential rewards come hand in hand with high potential risks, so when I invest, I not only consider the potential profits but also risk-mitigation by diversifying.

Also, as @hugeblack points out, past returns don’t guarantee future ones.

To decide the profit percentage from bitcoin to beat the conventional investment, we need to first benchmark the conventional investment strategies. Gold is an excellent investment instrument since decades and used by majority of the households for capital protection. Also whenever we have seen the global stock markets going down, Gold was there to save the investor's money. So if we benchmark the return from Gold, bitcoin definitely beats it considering the return. Having said that, we also need to understand that past profits or performance can't really guarantee the future performance. Investors like me, who had entered the crypto market long back, bitcoin remains as a most profitable venture. But those who have entered during late 2017 when the price was at peak, bitcoin investment is the baddest decision for them. So it also depends on the timing of your entry. We can further complicate the scenario with inflation and risk analysis.

But what important is that, we need to always have both types of investment in our portfolio. Because diversification is the key to a healthy investment portfolio. So it is always advisable to have bank deposits, Stock investments, precious metals in your kitty along with crypto currencies. Because majority of the bank investment is providing guaranteed return unlike bitcoin and crypto investment. Crypto can go down to any level within a very short period of time unlike bank investments. So to protect and appreciate your capital, a good mix of above mentioned investment instruments is required. We should not rely on bitcoin investment alone.

Why do you need to know how much interest you earn? Bitcoin brings me good profit and I use it to earn more than with Fiat. This is enough for me to support the use of bitcoin at all times. Investing in bitcoin is the wrong direction. No one can think of the idea of investing in the dollar. People should understand that bitcoin is a currency. It needs to be earned and spent.

You can also add the % of the inflation to those 10%. In most european countries countries the common bank deposit are not offering any interest. In some countries there are even negative interest rates. If the % on the bank deposit is over 5% then you should probably expect a high inflation.Imho only some kinds of obligations  can be concidered as a safe deposits.
Anyway Bitcoin can't be compared to such traditional assets because have different amounts of risk. With the same success you can buy a token, then it will get 20% growth and wou will say that  you got more money then you could get for 3 years of holding some obligations. You can also count stocks and penny stocks and find that there are some more ways of getting some fast and lucky money (or losing everything).

When looking at any investment the reward is only half the story. All investments come with an associated risk. To make a meaningful comparison you instead need to look at risk/reward ratio. That is, of course, easier than said than done because risk cannot be defined as a simple percentage, it is to a certain extent a matter of opinion.

I'm long-term bullish on Bitcoin because I recognise that the potential returns far outstrip those of any other asset class. But I'm also fully aware that the associated risks are higher as well. The question I really need to ask myself is do I think those risks are correctly priced in? I think the market is underpriced, most people overestimate the risk, so I'm invested.

There's another investment that is lower risk compared to bitcoin but yes, bitcoin is more profitable than other investment but it takes more risk and we don't know if you have a profit or you lose with it. Investing in bitcoin for sure profit is when you holding this for a long term. Just like when you invested in 2009 and until now you are still holding a bitcoin that you invested in that year, I'm sure you are much richer these days. So, in my own interpretation profit on bitcoin will base on how long you holding it from the time you invested, and there is no other way of investments who can beat on this.

It is good that you got 800% returns from your Bitcoin investment last year but it is not possible for now:

1) the returns like 1000% or above were easily achievable for early investors. The prices have skyrocketed now and thus there is not that much scope for growth. It will still be very profitable but you can get maximum 300% returns this year.

2) Many people do not have the patience to wait while the prices rise. For instance when bitcoin prices go from $10000 to $20000, they will sell for 2x. They will miss the possible growth in future.

Investing in bitcoin is only a temporary option. I think that someday this way to earnings will end. Now we can assume any price increase because bitcoin only at the beginning of its path. Income 200-300% is the normal rate of growth. But if speculators competently use any positive news that the price can show more attractive results.

I think it's hard to compare investment in gold or silver with investing in cryptocurrency,these are two completely different worlds.Gold and silver represents the value for people for thousands of years,while on the other side BTC is something less than ten years old with lots of unknowns and the uncertain future.

When you say that you profit 800% in last year with BTC this is only true if you convert coins in fiat,or if luck stay on your side and price of 1 BTC is always above levels that bring you profit,otherwise profit can turn into a loss at any time.

I do not really want to comment banking account savings,10% per year is fairly large interest and it's hard to imagine to me that some banks offer something like this.Banks are my last option for money investment anyway.


Good for you,but how are you earning 0.2 BTC (1600$) per month and you do not even trading?

this is the uniqueness of investing. the promised advantage is as great as the risk we might receive. if the doubled gain is promised by ICO. losing all our funds could have happened if the ICO was a scam. then we must be good at investing

@TheQuin had an excellent point which i also came to say. it is always about the risk of an investment. and that is why the lower risk investments have lower profit. for example when you put your money in a bank it has one of the lowest risks of all and because of that the reward is always smallest.

this is actually a good way to diversify your assets. for example if you have $10000 and want to invest it, you invest it in all the things in OP like gold, bitcoin, bank,... and distribute your $10k based on the risk/reward that you want to have.


i love excel :D
investing $10k in a bank with 10% annual profit for 16 years will give you $49.2k after 16 years.

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I think for this discussion, inflation is key. ROI (return on investment) depends heavily upon how much value is lost due to our declining value of currency and diminishing buying power as consumers. Real inflation could be as high as 10% per year in some instances, if we're measuring utilizing the old method of calculating inflation. 10% loss of purchasing power per year could cut heavily into any purported gains.

If we're looking @ 16 year cycles, some cycles are better or worse than others depending upon economic growth and prosperity. There are many economists predicting doom and gloom for the future, which could imply our next 16 year cycle will be distinctly inferior to the last. I'm not certain if the "trade war" making headlines in the media is necessarily a bad thing. Over the long term it could have positive implications, not only for the united states but also for nation's like china who could be forced to be less centralized and introduce more competition into government run social programs if they are to reach viable degrees of efficiency and effectiveness.

I haven't heard of any legit savings account that would offer this much. I have a number of accounts in European banks and they're usually offering 3-4% a year. 5-6% is a rarity. Haven't come across an offer higher than 6%. Note that most banks are offering interest rates below 2%. I dare to say that you'll never be able to find an account with rates of 10% a year. Why? Because the mortgage and loan interest rates are going down, this means that all other rates have to follow. If the bank is getting less money from loans and mortgages it doesn't need to hold your money and will pay you less.
https://www.magnifymoney.com/blog/earning-interest/best-online-savings-accounts275921001/

What can beat BTC? Currently nothing. BTC had a faster and bigger growth than Microsoft and Apple stocks. I doubt there's a place where you could put $100 and get more than people who put the same amount in BTC in January 2017.

In some 3rd world countries, inflation is very high and you might get much higher interest rates than 1st world countries on your investments. I just used 10% as the highest percentage to highlight the difference between getting 800% in one year with Bitcoin and getting 160% in say 16 years from the interest that you could have received in a Bank. <huge difference, right?>

The difference is still highly in favour of a Bitcoin investment at the highest possible interest that you might get from the Bank. It would be interesting to see what would happen if you brought compound interest into the comparison, because the difference in profit would be less, if you kept the money in a fixed deposit over a longer period.

One other factor needs to be considered here and that is exchange rates. If you can get 10% on a bank deposit in a country the chances are that its currency will depreciate substantially against the USD over a 16 year period. So when making a comparison to the USD return on Bitcoin you need to calculate that as well.

Bitcoin had actually outperform most of the trading assets and Bitcoin is the major points of investment in 2017 and close to the end of this year we will still have the same level of return and profits that we have last year. Profits that Bitcoin give in 2017 is very rare and most people and investors has become rich through that and we need to buy now to be among the rich in future.

Bitcoin price is unpredictable, people who bought bitcoin in $20.000 are feel very bad right now. Those who did that should hold until bitcoin price reach that point once again, but there is big opportunity that bitcoin price can reach that point one more time and even higher. Bitcoin is my best investment right now but I want to try invest in property. Buy some house and rent it can be safer than only hold bitcoin for long term. We should more focus on growing asset, I mean get more asset that provide passive income as well, I think it can be the best way to get financial freedom.

THis is why I believe in always making investments into new assets that others haven't got in yet, when others are way too conservative in their investment strategy. I can say for sure that depositing into a bank for the long term as an investment is pretty much shooting yourself in the foot as an investor, since the interest rates will rarely outpace the real rate of inflation and growth of assets.

I don't think that anything have came close to challenging BTC's growth in the past year, apart from other cryptos which don't really count.

There were periods of time in history when precious metals and housing as investments, as well as stocks delivered similar returns to BTC in 2017, but definitely not in 2017. In 2016-2017, BTC has outperformed every other asset class that I know of. And the growth was sustained for 2 years straight too.

Hi,

I don't see anything that could support the comparison...

Yet, there is one point missing in your analysis. Your profit in bitcoin over the last year is indeed really high and really interesting... But I think it is also the most risky bet. So I guess that would should be added to your analysis, is the potential loss...

Because, indeed, the potential of profit may be over 800% but the potential of loss should be quite high too... Whereas with the gold and its standard.. indeed the rise is really slow and steady, but it is also quite sure. So yes, interesting analysis, but you should complete it (if you have the figures)! ;)

You're right about having to take risk into the equation.

Gold is an interesting one, if you compare the charts then gold behaves in a very similar way to Bitcoin but much more slowly.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/kIJtkGWB/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kIJtkGWB/

Let us date back to the pre-Bitcoin age where most of the investment options would be stocks and gold/silver. Profits would be minimal even on the long term as price fluctuations would mainly be a result of variance in supply and demand and other smaller influences. Today, we're looking at an age of digital currencies being on the top of the food chain in the investment block, providing much bigger growth potential compared to orthodox investments.

because the circumstances of the future are also uncertain and unpredictable accurately. The return on investment may not be as expected, even contrary to and generate a loss, because one can not completely evade the risks posed by uncertainty. Deliberately or not

There is no such principal which describes such kind of thing. It all depends on the amount of money which you are investing into bitcoin. Higher the investment amount will be, higher are the chances that you are going to make out greater amount of profit out of that investment.

This is the only thing which can help you in having a better living as well as giving you a chance of making far more money than you can make by investing in any other investment.

I think you need to lookup risk-reward ratios. If you seriously think the amount invested influences the chances, then you are in need of some basic education on the subject.

I think making over 100 percent ROI is just enough for that and bitcoin has managed to give people who held for a long time over 500 percent on ROI which is bigger than any investments  are giving.

The scale of your profit or you can say margin is determined by the amount that you have invested into bitcoin because the larger size of investment makes you eligible for larger profits. In short, you are measuring your profit through your invested capital and this is the only way to predict your returns with bitcoin. To make extraordinary profit with little investment, extraordinary patience is needed to hold it.

You dont necessarily need to beat other investments to make goals in one. I think a more widespread investment strategy would work better, than just investing at one certain place and expecting good returns forever.

The returns obviously vary greatly from differemt platform be it stock or land or even bitcoin. In past, bitcoin produced allot of returns but for now it is quite stagnant for a long time. That doesnt mean we need tp dump btc and look for new investments. Investments can be pretty long term, and sticking would  show good returns.