Bitcoin Forum

https://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/Blog1.aspx?65tf=2868_bitcoin-how-low-will-it-go-easter-2018-2018-03
 (https://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/Blog1.aspx?65tf=2868_bitcoin-how-low-will-it-go-easter-2018-2018-03)

So far, we are repeating 2014 very closely.

A dead cat bounce to 11k starting in April off the 6kish area and ending by the beginning of June would fit this perfectly.

what does that mean by 'a dead cat' ?
are you talking about Bitcoin as a dead cat ?
about rebound we are not sure yet about this moment because we are moving toward $6000 level at this moment and there are no significant movement on buy orders.
as we can see,
compared to before(february 2018),today drop was slower.which means it will take a little more time to make a rebound from the drop.
for now we do not know its support yet and it might go lower than that level($6000).
but the only thing that we know for sure is,Bitcoin's dominance is increasing from time to time right now.

this time I can't understand where is the bad news behind this big dump :(
probably some big whale just empty their big wallet?
who knows but right now from a bigger value over 19k on coinbase we are touching a strong defeat :( in 2018

If we are following 2014 then it's not a dead-cat bounce because bitcoin survived that and recovered to new highs in the recent times. If we fend off 6k for the rest of the weekend then some sort of a recovery seems likely, then it will be interesting to see later in the year if there's a further dip down or if the price can stay up.

There doesn't need to be any bad news in order to trigger a selloff. If the big boys behind the scenes decide to sell their investments, it will happen regardless if there are good news/bad news circulating around.

As for the recent price movements, there is indeed a resemblance on the pattern of the 2014 scenario after all the craze had died out on the 2013 ATH. But right now, the recent crash seems to exhibit some form of life around it compared to the 2014 crash which is followed by 2 years of stagnation. Support levels are @ $5500 and $5000 being the stronger of the two, and if those support levels are broken, all I can see is a reenactment of the 2014-2016 stagnation where it's a stalemate between the bears and the bulls. This is certainly not a dead cat's bounce--not yet.

During all big holidays the prices are dipping hard because there isn't any fresh money on the market. People prefer to spend some quality family time, banks are closed and so on. And when somebody wants to sell out fast, then he's ruining the market.

I think there will be a price jump after 12th, after both Catholic and Orthodox Eastern.

Bans, regulations and massive FUDs about those speculations that are useless makes the price goes wrong.
There's a possibility that some big whales initiated to sell some of their bitcoins and took their holiday with nice profit. And that was followed by those people that are feeling FOMO.
Strong defeat? No but a strong correction.

Don't watch out for news. Not everything is news related.
It's just the market doing it's thing. We are in a bear market and therefore the bears are strong. Bulls have no confidence or any will to buy here, that's why you see these weak bounces and a more declining price.
Bitcoin's fundamentals are great and had never been better. It's the sentiment and the other side of the medal what is driving the market down. Normal behaviour.
So do not worry. What goes up, must come down, and what is down will go up.  ;)

Strong defeat in 2018? I may disagree with that conclusion, Q1 is just ending this day it's too early to say that we're going to have a massive loss after Q4 of this year and I doubt it will never rise from its current condition, bull market is yet to come and we're going to experience another price surge in spite some negative news and FUD's circling around the community, it's probably the combination of market correction, recent news and FUD's that is affecting the overall cryptocurrency price so don't get confused.

Dead Cat Bounce: This is a temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or a bear market that is followed by the continuation of the downtrend.


If we go lower after a temporary recovery, it's a dead cat more or less.

if that's supposed to match 2014, what fractal are you looking at specifically? i assume not the $380-->$995 bounce or the $340-->$680 bounce? both would get us further than $11k.

in terms of both time and price, i still don't see any of the parallels to 2014 that other people are talking about.

From 6k to 11.5k is about the same as 340-680. The reason will won't see 12k is because there is strong resistance at 11.5k. So far we been to 6550 on the 31st. In 2014 340 was on April 11th. Still time to drop to 6k and bounce just like 2014.

The drop percentages and timing are very close. This don't look similar to you?

Hopefully there is a bear trap after the bounce and drop so we can start a new bull trend instead of dropping to new lows in the 4-5k range.

Thoughts?

a bull trap topping out at $11.5k would make for a triple top, visible on the weekly chart. not particularly reminiscent of 2014 but more importantly, just not a formation i've ever really seen in the charts. could you find an example? if we get to the $11.5k area, i expect a pullback and breakout.


aside from the triple top, it would look kind of similar because you're forecasting a move that mimics 2014 and hasn't happened yet. but right now, put the weekly charts side by side. they don't look similar at all. it's hard to see one fractal do a 78.6% retrace and another do a 38.2% retrace and call them similar.

Hmm. Nice theory but we need to wait and see how it goes. Bitcoin has been said many times that its either in a bull trap or dead cat bounce but it has been proven wrong. We have double bottom already, so it makes sense if a bounce is imminent. Its early to say that we are bouncing to $11K in April or we are going to see it plummet even deeper. So even in this crisis, I'm fairly optimistic that we can recover but I don't see it repeating the 2014 debacle of mostly bearish trend.

OK, let us see if it happens. I also have a strong belief that Bitcoin and altcoins will start climbing the hill this month. I do not know when they come to its top, but it will happen.

"Even a dead cat bounces if you drop it from a height", stems from stock market shenanigans in the 80's

Seems you dont fully understand what Dead Cat Bounce means. But i guess it is used similar as you understand it to many times in crypto talks.   Main point of dead cat bounce is in the word dead. The cat is dead, but it still does bouncing.  So even when something is totally broken, like was Bitconect. Some regulators broke ponzi scheme in the Bitcoinect and what was left was just another non developed bitcoin clone.  So even then, there are some retracements or bounces, that looks like it will recover.  But it never does. Dead Cat Bounce means that will never recover. It is dead, just temporarily still looks alive.

Economic misery in the US could cause investors to have to retreive their funds.
My experience with Bitcoin is that we are on track. Once we shake off the masses we will climb again :-)