Bitcoin Forum

I've been waiting for BTC to come back down so I can buy more but it's not cooperating.  Will I be left behind or is this a bubble?

Fuck ya ...
BUY BUY BUY!!!!!!! HURRY!!!

If you really don't want to take risks then I would just wait for a crash, buy into that rather than a rally.

if your ever unsure about when to trade, dont throw all your stash into that gamble. risk half of your stash. that way if it pays off your still profiting, if it doesnt, you still have cash left over to buy in at the cheaper price (thus averaging down the first orders cost)

i personally break orders down into 5-10 different price points and never sell on a loss. and if i had 50% stash already in waiting for a sell point to hit, i wait for an adequate price drop to compensate, EG not buy in on a $2 drop if im waiting for a $10 rise.. (id wait for atleast a $10 drop to buy in and then wait for the correction)

theres many ways to limit risk, just dont be foolish throwing it all in at one order price. because you end up being foolish selling at a loss thinking you can profit on the next dump and ramp

205 was the dip for this week...
Get ready for235

Just watch btc China for now if the price is above go and climbing buy in at bitstamp... When it is below Mt go and dropping sell

That's got to be your call. Read as much as you can about bitcoin. You need to make the call for yourself.
 
However, don't ever risk more money than you are willing to lose.

buy, forget, hold few years. Profit.

+1


this way you might miss the biggest possible gain, but you are safe not to buy at the peak.

generally, in my opinion, it is ok to buy into bitcoin rally since this rally will take it to 4 digits sooner or later.

+1.

64% of the weeks are actually positive for bitcoin, only 36% have been negative.

forgetting is the hardest part, I'm too curious for that xD

This sounds really interesting.  So always wait to buy until there is a drop equal to the rise that would cause you to sell?


I think this is a great idea, but when to buy and when not to buy?  Every week or so I get more comfortable and I want to buy more.  What about when the urge to buy is in the middle(?) of a major rally like this?

(Shrug) I have no idea these days. Momentum kept dropping but keeps bouncing. I sold a bunch at $198-199 BTC-E and proceeded to buy it all back at very negligible profit. I'm not gonna trade this market for a while. My feeling is that I can probably accumulate more BTC other ways...

I think most here underestimate the short-term price spike that may materialize in the next 60 days.

As a newbie I got burned last week with an all-in. Now I sell some coins during the rally if I have done an all-in again or hold cash back for a crash. Better to make small profit than no profit. Or you buy in and wait. I decided to sell in the middle of the crash and buy back at lower prices so I could reduce the loss of possible profit. Had luck and worked in some way. Could have waited and still got profit now, but less. Or more with bad luck. :)

Still, transaction costs are a bitch. Fortunately they get lower with more trading. I don't trust BTC-trading on btc-e and hold my coins there until more BTCs are traded.

This rally today is surprising anyone????!!!!

With all the press last week, the delayed effect to money coming into the markets, the fact that Bitstamp hasn't processed wires for what will be 4 days by tomorrow?

This means everyone is expecting an influx of capital to the markets.

Its pretty obvious isn't it that these markets want to AT LEAST test the ATHs?

That doesn't mean we are going to the moon, but ALL INDICATORS point to higher this week. Every. Single. One.

I think we are going up for 2 weeks and we are going to test the ATH on Mtgox.   I don't think we will test the ATH on Bitstamp unless there is a real run.

But to think we are going down here barring unforeseen news, I just don't know how you justify that prediction.

+1

ath this coming week. quote me  ;).

Quoted  ;D

Oh, and I share your sentiment. I am 95% in.

The rule is, if you're going to shamelessly brag like a douche, you have to also shamelessly announce exactly how many coins you have.

What constitutes VIP seats?  How many coins?

I wanna see where on the train I sit.... :)

Right at the back of this train but not getting off until my destination of BTC= $100000

I was also hoping for the Mariana trench this weekend, but it looks like we took off. Next stop the moon. I think you can buy now and rest assured it will go up short-term. Also, in the very long run you should be good. In between, it is likely we will revisit $204 and lower IMHO.

205 ?

hope you did it, just check the chart, mate ... ;)

I have been selling some at every plateau with a trigger limit sitting above the next wall so if the wall gets eaten I buy back in and lose a few percent but if the price drops I make some it's a win or win less method while btc progresses it's way to the moon...
I don't even get coach on the train though...
I'm in the baggage cart with around 70 bitcoins

The best strategy is to decide on a certain amount you can afford to spend every week on BTC ($20, $100, whatever) and just buy regularly.  That way you'll evenly buy into the lows and the highs and don't have to sweat it so much.

I think even buying at this price you could still benefit greatly in the future.

But you could also meet my friend Bubblepop and loose 1/2 to 2/3 of every dollar you have.

Somebody should use this song the next time we get some excitement to the downside: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bw9CALKOvAI

I've been debating whether or not to buy more myself.  After SR, I returned to BTC and had intended to buy as much as possible when the price was sitting between $120-130.  Unfortunately, the price quickly rebounded and I was only able to get a hold of a small fraction (dang Coinbase starting limits).  I've picked up a few more between then and $200, but I'm being very conservative expecting multiple corrections.

Still, at the current Coinbase price of $219, I'm sitting at ~125% of my investment.  It would have been a much rosier picture had I successfully purchased my goal at the outset, but that's life.  I'll just keep chasing the train, and as soon as it gets low on coal, I'll sneak aboard.

I hope OP got it at $205, but even at $210 it's also a nice buy.

My best trading strategy is to buy at market price anytime when I have some extra fiat and hold (unless the price is let's say $5k). I've been doing so for over a year and have no regret yet :)

Don't be afraid if the price drops a few bucks tomorrow, because it'll always recover and go beyond. At least you are sure you didn't miss the train when it jumps to the sky once again.

I'd hold out if I were you...

Right. Shouldn't have bought at $205. Shouldn't buy now at $211. If it goes to $220 don't buy. Don't buy at $230.  Or $245. Or especially not at $250.

And don't buy at $266. Or $267.  And if we go to $300 DO NOT buy then.

Wait for a correction. Then maybe you can "get it" at $280. Or $270. Or maybe $248. Get in then, on the downswing.

So, to summarize, the price is $211. Do not buy.




(Does anyone see how bad advice often sounds so sound?)

No, I dont follow. Do the opposite and its still just advice.

$200? Still too high. $190? If it goes to $180 it goes farther.. $180? I told you we go lower. $160? Bubble pop?!?!

Etc. Bad logic is bad.

I am obviously taking the assumption that the trend it up not down. The OP wants to invest in BTC. He is asking if this is a good price. If he is looking to invest and, thus, assumes it will go up, then $205 is a great price. Not waiting for some hypothetical dip. ESPECIALLY after a phase of retraction and consolidation in an up trend.

Good logic is good.
 
You are just a bear. Remember, BTC will only ever be a small niche technology. You already told us that.

Yeah, and if your net worth is more than about $0.5M and the above conditions are met, you can also register yourself to the Bitcoin TOP-500 list (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=321265.0).

Hey buy now because it will push the price a little bit more and when you gain a difference more than 5% sell it and buy again when it does the opposite.

You can buy but its really risky, why not buy some alt-coins instead? You know the price is few $ now and it might go as high as $10...

Depends on the timeframe. If I would invest for anything longer than 3 weeks, or for something between 24-96 hours, I would definitely buy. In all other cases I would just buy.

you do know that altcoins are losing value when bitcoin rises? It's even more risk because you never know what will happen to altcoin in few months if devs will drop it.

yeah, why buy expensive gold when there is cheap tinfoil available. the alts are not ?

 ::)

LOOL

Done.

Yeah, why buy the risky stuff, if you can buy the super-risky stuff?

Awesome breakdown. Quoting so I can find it later :-)

did you buy in? @ 205? cause it just left the station...

Yup. ;D

Very nice ride ! :D

THIS IS ME SINCE 204!!! :'(

lmao, spot on.

Buy high and sell higher, in-case it crash you can average down...

Oh you peanuts... That is me since 0.25!!!

(Thread here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0))

http://iv.pl/images/82211820657513718314.png (http://iv.pl/)

My advice for successful bitcoin investing is as follows:

- Every time the price is below the trendline, BUY
- If it is above, HOLD, if you think you can buy cheaper after a dip (for lazy investors: BUY unless the price is more than double the target)
- If the price overshoots by a great margin, such as 5x the trend, HOLD/SELL (never sell more than a fraction, even temporarily)

The trendline goes up 23% per month, so you should not sell after every little blip over the trendline, because it will catch the price so soon. Only major overshoots should be sold into. Always buy if the price is below trendline, because the trend will rise so quickly and the price will need to rise even quicker, just to catch up with the trend. Never wait in this kind of situation. We are now in this situation, since Nov. trendtarget is $310.

^ Golden post.

In my opinion that trend line is unsustainable and arbitrary. 10k by jan 2015?  Some unforeseen event(s) of ridiculous magnitude would have to occur. Maybe by 2020. But not by 2015.

Buy high and sell higher? Hm... never liked that but I guess I got no choice but to jump in now...

No, it isn't. There is only one way to use the least squares method, and it is depicted above. You, on the other hand, seem to pull numbers from your sleeve, and good luck trading systematically with that approach.

How is the squares method not arbitrary?

Look you have informative posts, but you were also claiming in may that we would be in moderate 4 digits by the end of this year.

What are going say if that trend line falls way off of the mark in 2014?  What reason will you come up with then? That chart is not a "method". It's a supposition.

Please, i don't have time for this. Find out if you honestly don't know. In the thread where this is derived, there are links and all.


I meant that you should employ at least the same amount of background work presenting a better alternative, instead of saying that
You have been registered for all of 6 weeks, right? It is enough time to form an opinion, but there are already so many of those having an opinion but not backing. This would be much fun if among the 153,000 forum members even 5 would care to research economic matters with the same precision as I do. Woe to the would-be trader that actually cares about your opinions! (Sorry.)

The trendline is constructed of 58 datapoints currently. If the dataset changes, such as when November is added, the trendline is redrawn using the original method. It changes very little to take into account the latest addition. Also if better data is retrieved from the early months.

My earlier attempts of constructing a trendline were defective due to the lack of data from the early days of Bitcoin. That's why you should just discard the Mt.Gox price hand-drawn trendlines unless you have very solid research backing it.

"Unsustainable" is an unmathematical concept, which you apply incorrectly. As recently as 1999 something completely unsustainable did happen in stock market and I lost a fortune. There are actual unsustainables, but they are further away than most believe. Google black swan.

Dude, this guy has more money than you will ever have and he got it by making well-researched investments.  You might be smarter to listen to him rather than argue.

The lack of early data and the April run-up made the least squares method a bit too bullish at the time, but over time it gets more accurate because of more data.  The data says that not only is this sustainable but virtually inevitable.

This is why rpietila tells everyone to buy, buy, buy with whatever you can afford and hold long term no matter how high the price.

Yes, buy and sell higher.....

IMHO bears get what they deserve. OP is left behind and it's his own fault...

How come you got burned? Did you sell?

Most unsuccessful buys turn successful in weeks, and the rest after a little bit longer time...

very right.
even the guys who bought at ath in april (i recall reading a post from someone who put a house loan into the ath) will soon be relieved. that is, if they had the balls and waited.

"It really really takes the iron balls to wait almost 7 months omg i want it now..."

When bitcoin matures, I consider selling. No signs of maturity yet, so plenty of upside :)

Checking the order status at btce

buying orders for about 1.8 million
Selling about 2200 BTC

1800000/2200 = 820 $/BTC woot :o

This sounds like it might be right for me.  I'm definitely a long-term bull.  "Selling high" doesn't really make sense to me any time soon.  "Buying low" as much as possible is really what I'm after.  If I have $10K now that I want to put into BTC+altcoins, should I split that up into $200/week or something to take advantage of dollar cost averaging?

Dollar cost averaging does not bring any advantage. I would instruct you to buy as soon as possible, if you think bitcoin is good and confirm that the trend is up.

You bought back after selling 1k at around $135?
Sorry if that wasn't you.

Really? You just discovered linear regression and suddenly extrapolation from previous data (which is *exactly* what you're doing there) is not arbitrary anymore?

Learn a) your mathematical techniques (that part you seem to have done), and b) the assumptions you make when you employ said techniques.

Note: This says nothing about the validity of your claims. I personally find it the approach useful, and your numbers might well fit the target. But there is abso-fucking-lutely no way around the fact that extrapolation from previous data only works as long as the function generating the data now is (more or less) the same as the function generating the data back then. If you believe that's the case -- fine by me. But it is an assumption.

I had the intention to sell as part of my strategic sales plan. Instantly afterwards it started to rise, and I did not need all the money, so I bought back with part of the money as part of my speculative portfolio. There is no denying that I lost substantially, but I did not have the knowledge whether it would rise or not.

This incident prompted me to delve deeper into bitcoin's historical prices. Now I will know better, how to time the strategic sales. I would rather sell when bitcoin is minimum 2x above the trendline. Then I have a realistic chance to buy back at half the price. Without the trendline as a basis, this would be very difficult.

There are several investing styles. Mine has served me adequately.

Until it won't. Not minding your strategy here, but you must be flexible and change strategy accordingly. Bitcoin mainstream adaption is probably still 5 years away. The annual growth factor can slow down in the future.

Personally, if I had to chose between dollar cost averaging and following rpietila's buy/sell based on deviation from the uber-trendline, I would go with the latter approach. DCA is simply too conservative for Bitcoin -- you'd lose out on spectacular returns simply because you'd sell into the most wonderful rallies :)

I didn't think DCA called for selling at all.  I thought it was a buy and hold strategy.

The trendline is worrisome to me because it looks like it wouldn't have called for buying in the latter part of 2010, all of 2011, and the beginning of 2012.  That means missing out on a lot.  Or would the line have been sufficiently different then?

I'm starting to think there isn't a better method for BTC than buying as much as you can as quickly as you can and holding for a long time.

Get out of here with all this "newbie" crap. You have no idea how much I have researched or how much I knew BEFORE I registered here. That is weak sauce.

So what? You have 58 datapoints and now you are projecting 10k by Jan 15th 2015.  And you already have excuses about why your datapoints were crappy ass predictors a few months ago. They will be crappy ass predictors again.

You got burnt in 1999. Not surprised. You are wrong again, imo. But only in so much as your prediction on how fast it will rise to 10k. I think we are at least a couple of years away from ease of use and mass adoption (if those things happen).  And I do not think 10k happens until those things are well established. And, listen here, it is my OPINION. But just because you have a squares graph doesn't make your opinion fact, or better researched. Just means you have a graph. A graph that has already predicted poorly.

"Google black swan." Lol. Duh. Why don't you google "candlestick." Stop with your condescension.

you're right, my mistake. had a different strategy in mind.

I hope OP did bought at 205 but sold by now or stashed it for years. This bubblepop will go down hard.

If you have 50k btc to dump at once it will go down hard.. for a few hours :)

Just as climbing to a higher summit lets you see more of the landscape, if something major needs to happen in the world for Bitcoin to continue growing exponentially, it will happen.

When Bitcoin reached $1, it seemed impossible for it to go to $10 so soon. When Bitcoin reaches $1000, the monumental changes needed for it to reach $10,000 won't seem so monumental. At $10 the BIT would never have been established, but the BIT is the only way for institutional investors to buy.

Higher prices enable higher prices. What once was fantasy soon becomes yesterday's news. This is how exponential growth presents itself in the eyes of linear human thinking.

Hindsight is 20/20.

I wish I went all in at $120 a month ago. :(





If you can afford it, buy at the next dip.

There will be one or two more chances to buy below $215, and it will be a fast ride! :)

I started 3 weeks ago with more cash after experimenting with bitcoins in september and stopping for a few weeks in between. I guess I thought I'd make more money by waiting for drops. In hindsight I'd have hold them.
The drops got more unpredictable - my lows where too low *gg* or didn't happened at the time - and the whale or (only) shark on bitstamp is pushing the price too fast.

In the last few days I lost more than I made before and have a loss of 18% over holding. :(

I join the group of holders. More profit and less wasting of time. :)

This prediction was made yesterday, but may already turn outdated.

If a long-standing ATH is crushed, there is no looking back. Even the post-next-bubble-low does not go as low as $266.

Exactly, bitcoin never went below the previous ATH after a run. So not only you can forget double digits as the time when the coins were still cheap, but $266 is history as well.

The only thing I don't like about bitcoin is that you seem to never have enough of it no matter how much you invest :) Probably just greed. I should go troll the bears.

"Glad" to hear that from both of you. I cancelled my bids @ $25x hours ago and bought in again few dollars higher because of fear that it will NEVER get this low again.

I guess this question is answered: yes, don't be scared to buy. These price moves are the toenails of the colossus.

Wonderful metaphor.

So true.  The question I posed in the title of this thread literally answers itself now.

How about this strategy?

1. buy periodically in increments
2. buy on a dip/crash in increments
3. hold

If I skip #1, I might "miss the boat".  If I skip #2, I don't take advantage of low prices effectively enough.  If I go all-in instead of buying incrementally and the price goes lower, I won't be able to lower my average cost by buying again.  #3 is key.

Never say never - this one is much higher than the last and the downside risk is higher, imho, uncharted territory would be the best way to say this, although you're probably right.

My wife (Bitchick) said #2 while the price was at $208.  She wanted to wait since we just bought at $198 the week before.  She thanked me this morning for not listening to her.  :o  (Has that ever happened before?  A wife thanking her husband for not listening? :) )

this is assuming people who making dumps never learn. Why someone would drop millions of dollars just to try buy back few more bitcoins cheaper. They will be really rich without it.

The problem is that this time China is in the rally, and that means that there might be people speculating that can have that fear that leads us to a price correction/bubble crash, I think.

People, especially investors, like to do things to the edge.

Helps to lower dollar cost average of the buy in too.

This time. yes.

You should always buy into a  rally unless BTC has gained an entire extra didgit from its last long-standing ATH.