Bitcoin Forum

I'm guessing that Bitcoin price at the exchanges will reach 5-6 dollars. My main point saying that is because of all the heavy investments that are made in the rigs. People will want to make sure that they get there money back as a first stage of their investment. Doing so will push pressure on the price. At the same time you have all the people that bought in when it was only a couple of cents up to a dollar worth not so long ago. They will also put short term pressure on the price.

I'm also guessing that there are 10-50 people that have 50 000 bitcoins each or more (the early early adapters). This group have a big impact on the price as well. If just a couple of them decides to cash out, the price will drop substantially.

My background is that I live by making money on the financial markets, I have done so for the last 11 years. And I have also invested in Bitcoins in different ways, but are not in any way fully invested.

Any thoughts on the 5-6 dollars price target?

I think it might decrease yes. But predicting a target is totally absurd.

This belongs in the speculation subforum!

I'm not in any way predicting, it's more a guess, and I know that there are many things that can happen in that time period that can substantially make my guessing look totally wrong.

Just tried the "report to moderator" link again, let's hope it works this time.

I predict that before prices can get to that point, tens of thousands of buy orders come in and raise the price up.

That's my prediction.

I predict this thread is gonna get moved.

Maybe it's time for a meta-speculation board  ;D

Moderator, where are you?

Or a prediction market :)

If people really believe their predictions they should put their money where their mouth is...

Say what? English not your first language I guess ? Predicting and guessing is the same thing buddy.

That said, the poster may be right. I was ready to signa contract for a larger data center installation for bitcoin mining and just called it off - the numbers did not work, not the least because pretty much everyone on the other side of the game decided to demand more money. Too much risk, too high price. Especially with the rent up.  I expect quite a lot of people will loose their guts at one point - not everone pays 15 US cents or lower, some pay significantly more and for the mmining is less and less efficient.

please tell me you don't actually teach english officially.

I fully expect that owners of large caches of bitcoins will sell them privately and discretely to various investors that wish to not use financial exchanges like Dwolla, Mt Gox, and Tradehill.

actually when i was moving a decent chunk of change out of tradehill a while back(love no withdrawal limits!) i received an email from them asking if i wanted them to setup some direct trading with some high rollers so I guess the exchanges are also mediating situations like that as well.

that's been happening for a while now.  remember bruce wagner's post a couple of months ago, on behalf of a friend who would only sell face-to-face in new york, and had a metric crapton of Bitcoin?

the OPs 10-50 people with 50k+ BTC has been steadily dwindling.

in a year, we'll likely be down to satoshi, vladimir (who was not technically an early adopter), and a couple of others.

the stuff is percolating through the world.  homogeneity will be forthcoming...

I personally know someone who is not an early adopter but has 20000+ coins... bought for $8 or 9 each.
he already has nice car and boat though so he's not doing it to get rich.

I predicted also that bitcoin should fall into the single digits, I have predicted this for a while now. I base this on the fact that bitcoin honestly has currently no real use. I also do not see it having any real use. The problem is that it is too easily hacked. It is too risky to use it as a currency as that may bring the government after you. Plus many other reasons which I do not want to get into.

I predict that the prediction made by the predictor will predict the prediction of the predictor's prediction before the predictor's prediction is predicted to be predicted.

It does look like trading on the exchanges is grinding to a halt. Let's hope that some of the early adopters are using their new found wealth to develop vehicles for making easy and safe transactions.

I have stopped trading yesterday. I was actively trading on a daily basis with a very elaborated bot but it's not worth it anymore yet I prefer to go back on Forex. Not enough liquidity to play with.

There are real uses for Bitcoins at this moment.

You can transfer money taxfree over the world.
Paypal is getting bad press.

But I think you could be right.

Also...
I predict that there will be a lot of other kind of predictions in a predictions thread.

Correction: You can transfer bitcoins around the world tax free.  If you want to convert bitcoins to money, you then need to feed it through an exchange and a bank to get the cash.  There are fees there. 

PayPal is always getting bad press.  Has been for almost a decade, yet it's still around and as popular as ever.

Bitcoin's value is slowly limping along and falling.  $13.18 as I write this.  There are the usual excuses, such as this being the weekend, and that Dwolla transactions are delayed until Monday so traders can't take advantage of the low low bitcoin prices.  There is nothing new here, and everyone expects a dip on the weekends so there is nothing natural about it.  Bitcoin is in a natural, slow, gradual decline.

So it seems to me, a guess is a kind of prediction implying a lack of information (meaning that a guess is a prediction, but a preditction is not necessarily a guess).

Predicting and guessing might be the same thing for someone who is always lacking information.

How is bitcoin easily hacked?

I think the mybitcoin.com situation might be spooking some people.

I haven't seen much in the media about their disappearance.. but it's potentially another bit of bad publicity.

CNN's recent bitcoin story showed a screenshot of mybitcoin on someone's phone so I suspect rather a lot of people used it.. especially those who are less techie.   
Bitcoin-related companies burning new investors like this can't be good for the price.

It looks like it will reach under 10 dollars very soon. If you do the math, just the heavy investments in the rigs shows you all the signs that we will have high pressure on the price when it is still at this levels (around 12 dollars). That without even taking in notice all the other things that are happening plus all the money that has been made in the short term from the early early adapters, many of them still have 1000-10000 % + gains, that is crazy returns in such a short time.

The mybitcoin thing is a wake-up call that we need an open source and secure wallet solution to store BTC online... somehow. I don't have a problem with some bitcoins being destroyed/lost because it makes mine more valuable in the long run.

your theory makes sense and is also linked to my chart patterns

Posts like these do make me laugh :D I don't normally entertain them but I'm feeling frisky this morning. What I don't get is why there are so many people worried about what the price is doing atm ! it's got nothing to do with the future of bitcoin. This is my opinion and in no way am I saying that I am right or wrong but we are still in the very early stages of bitcoin. The hype has caused many non technical people and traders trying to make a quick buck to the table and the price of bitcoin is unstable to say the least. trying to predict if its time to make or break is a mugs game in my opinion !! It's all about the future ;) Once things are established bitcoin I predict will be very different than it's current form. People will start services and offer solutions to the non technical minded and then we will see the real worth of bitcoin.

Your average Joe is not interested in block chains, crypto currency and how money works. If you asked the majority of the world how do currencies work they would probably shrug their shoulders at you or take you to the nearest shop so you can witness them buying something. Once bitcoin has been established there will be bitcoin banks, payment portals, merchant services and just about every way you can think of to spend and transfer money without having to install a client on your computer or even use a computer.

If you was a smart person you would not worry about how much electric you are using or how much money your loosing right now because the smart people know that as the governments of the world fail miserably to cover up there mistakes there's a collective of people that are setting the foundations for a currency that will change the world and the way people think about money. it will give you the choice to stay with a currency owned by dishonest, selfish and destructive people that are in it to make them selves rich or to move over to a currency where you are in control. Where the people of the world decide on how things are run and are not just blindly following the crap they are fed by greedy people.

Just my two pence !!

Your point is right, longer term bitcoin should have a bright future and that gives the reasons that we are all here talking about it.

But what would you like to have 500 bitcoins or 1000 bitcoins? Thats the different in short term. Even if what you are saying is right, timing is everything, that is something both the early adopters (as you?) and the ones that bought at 30 dollars understand...

it depends on your motivation. Most that bought into bitcoin these last few months were looking to make a quick buck. If I had 1000 bitcoins I'd hold on to them and wait at least a year before moving. If you bought 1000 @ $30 as a short term investment you was very silly to do so :D The way you have worded your reply sounds like your holding on to a short term investment. Using phrases like"That's the different in short term" and "timing is everything" is classic day trader talk like the silly posts here titled CRASH and SELL. Wise people are in it for the long haul :D

You don't get it, or you get it and don't want to see it.

My calculations (http://chasinggoogle.blogspot.com/2011/08/bitcoin-mining-calculate-difficulty.html) confirms that equilibrium price are around 5$ and rely on miners behavior, not only on people using and trading bitcoins. Actual demand of bitcoins is really low. I suppose without Silk Road we never saw it over 10$ for long time.

12 dollars not so many hours ago, down to 8,70 dollars, and now just over 10 dollars. Another opportunity to sell over 10 dollars (as I see it)...Probably the last one in many weeks.

Yes agreed, it seems like once it hits a new low it is not long before it will be below that last low.

Keep in mind the wise adage "Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results."

WELL SAID!

The same bulls who saw $24 as a buying opportunity also saw $20 as a buying opportunity.  They next saw $17.5 as a buying opportunity, then $15 followed by $13, and $12, and $11, and now $9.   Not a big wonder they have little cash left to take advantage of the current sale price.

Though at some point they're going to be right.  And I believe that point is like the OP predicts, in the $6 range.  At $14 that pricing was inconceivable, and yet a 30% haircut later it's not so far fetched.

I'm with you.  I expect a $9-$11 trading range for a few weeks before we descend the next stair down.  Mining is still wildly profitable for those of us with existing rigs.  We've got 2 more months of slow pain and then a possible sharp drop when the 7 series or the promised ASIC in a box are released when people cash out to upgrade.  After that we'll see.

Right, and keep in mind that predictions always fail to take into account the sudden, unexpected events which cause the most serious price swings (both up and down)...

The daily return of BTC for all miners based on the numbers of TH/s just fell from 7500 to 5875...  if at every difficulty increase we see a similar drop out of miners eventually the number of people inject BTC into the market for USD/etc. will decrease and the price would have to increase.  This is, of course, classical deflationary economics; the only thing that needs to stay the same is demand.  As long as people are using it for things or there are price fluctuations, that's no problem at all.

The price of BTC is whatever people are willing to pay for it.. and as the applications of BTC are increasing rather than decreasing and number of coins mined daily are also decreasing, it's likely that it will remain here and high priced.

Does anyone know the exact timing for the algorithm to adjust to the decrease of hashing power?  Because it will adjust eventually and it will keep the number of BTC mined daily a constant.  Otherwise this would mean that bitcoin transfers will take longer - i.e. the system would lose some of it's usefulness and that should make the price drop.

Every 2016 blocks I think, which at the current rate would be about 17 days from the last difficulty change

Hehheh - I thought $19.5/ BTC was a steal when I started doing  this!  I'm continuing because I recognize the potential, NOT because I made any cash back the first time around!

Good attitude, we are all early adopters now. If the real early adopters show some support we will see some real rocket-ship style rallying.

Monetary supply for Bitcoin this year always grow constantly: 50*6*24=7200BTC per day (or 72000$(!) per day based on current exchange rate). And it doesn't depend on demand of coins in economy. I don't think demand of coins grow so fast now, I suppose it is constant or decreases. This is plain inflationary economics, so exchange rate will drop constantly in near future until something in coins demand happened.

Its only 7200 BTC per day (= 50*6*24).

producing doesnt mean putting on the market!

the miners decide if they inflate the Bitcoin...

Some percent of miners always invest (http://chasinggoogle.blogspot.com/2011/08/bitcoin-mining-calculate-difficulty.html), so they need to convert BTC into USD, because AMD, Intel and Foxconn don't accept BTC.

I agree with you, i derived a 6.50$ target with a quantitative approach. It is a possible target for this weekly down swing started at 32$ 2 months ago.

(emphasis mine)

and there my friend, you have identified the real problem.

So mining is no longer super profitable. That's not news to most of us.

I don't know about $5-6, but it looks like we're gearing up for another $8-9 visit.

It took nine days to reach my target price.

Good call.  I wasn't sure of the timeline of the crash, but you timed it brilliantly.

Another chance to sell at high six dollar,  the market is kind.

:)

After waiting for about a month, my orders at 8.xx, 7.xx, and 6.xx have been filled.  Still waiting for the order at 5.xx to get filled, though of course with mixed feelings.  If it's filled, that would mean that the economy is worth half what it was a week ago.  Ouch.  It'll be like hanging out at a company after its stock has crashed, with everyone is a bit mum (don't ask me how I know this...)

Op was wrong. It took 1 week.

maybe he should re-title the thread as $0.50-$1 within 4-6 weeks.

Yep - bought at $6, sold at $7, made like $5 :P SCORE!!!!! The overall curve did not spike upwards with the US credit downgrade.  Interesting.

Whats crazy is it can go up just as fast..

I have a feeling that's going to blow up, but maybe I'm wrong

Feelings are great for writing poetry and wondering whether or not you'll have the chicken or the fish.  It will go down farther before it goes up.  Its like dropping an egg and hoping that your feelings will inform you about what will happen next.

I think a lot of them sold and it's people like satoshi buying back that is keeping the price from plumetting.

As I've predicted we are now at 5-6$ for 1 BTC.

our technical analysis has also predicted that btcusd even broke 5$.
After the low at just above 4$, we may now see base building before potentially rally again.

I could give you many reasons that it will continue going down. Rally in very extreme short term is the only possibility, besides that there is no signs of a strong rally. I think the likelihood of BTC going to 3 dollars is much higher then let say 9 dollars.

As you can see, 6000 bitcoins out on the market on the bid side just this minute.

To start up-trend we need any expanding sources of BTC demand. I don't see any of it for now. We still have constant supply of BTC.

Well, I for one will quit next week given the prices stay at current levels.
Absolutely zero incentive to keep mining at this point.

Of course, if difficulty drops to say 400-500k before christmas, a $4-5 price point will be excellent.
I don't see that happening though..

Bitcoin is just starting, the demand so far has been small, even at the peak. Currently we're at 6000-7000 transactions per day which is quite an improvement from the 1000 per day at the start of the year.

I am very surprised if we're not seeing 10000+ again before the end of the year, especially when services like this pop up: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=44076.0

It's clear now that the bubble has deflated. What is not clear is whether the Bitcoin-economy will rise after leveling off or drop further, to levels lower than before the bubble. This is not crystal clear yet but I find a growing economy much more likely. Nothing has killed Bitcoin itself, services are getting better, there are simply no signs of a death of any sort.

Yea, 6000-7000 transactions a day from miners wanting to sell their coins and pools sending them out.
Has anyone analyzed those transactions for any clue of what is going on with them if possible?

I've spoken to miners and most claim to be saving them for a price rise.  There are a lot of people selling on MtGox.  I don't know if it's hackers or investors.

Yes.. but every time they send coins from a pool to their own client that is a transaction... now multiply that
by everyone mining.. which could be a significant percentage of transactions per day just from that alone.

In one or two months it might bounce back up to $5-6, you think?

Very short time period maybe, but don't bet on it. It is much more likely to continue the down trend.

Sounds like a feedback loop to me. Regulation works.

Maybe this calls for acyclic action. Buy mining hardware now ;)

Oh I may, I may.  But not video cards -- I'm waiting for the FPGA miner guys to get a clue and slap at least 6 of the $158 spartan 6s on their board instead of just 1 or 2.   At that point the FPGA setup won't be much more than a mining rig, and once again have a 90% gross margin on cost to produce each coin.

We're one genius move on the part of hardware devs and a few dollars to the downside short a giant shift in the way bitcoins are valued.