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Other => Politics & Society => Topic started by: theymos on April 17, 2018, 11:17:27 PM



Title: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: theymos on April 17, 2018, 11:17:27 PM
Recently I heard about something that Polybius wrote about 100 years before the fall of the Roman Republic which seems to me to be eerily relevant even today. He predicts that all governments/societies go through a 7-stage cycle: monarchy, kingship, tyranny, aristocracy, oligarchy, democracy, mob-rule, and then from chaos back to monarchy. I see this sequence throughout history (Russia & the Soviet Union comes to mind), and you could place the US at various points on the cycle.

What do you think? Does this idea still have merit 2100+ years later? If so, at what point in the cycle are we in now?

If this cycle is indeed inevitable in politics, then Bitcoin offers a hope of escape, since Bitcoin (and crypto-anarchy generally) is all about removing politics from life. Instead of trusting a king, an aristocracy, or a majority, you structure things so that everyone is and can reasonably be sovereign over his own affairs.

Here's what Polybius wrote, all emphasis and excerpting mine:

Quote from: The Histories
When owing to floods, famines, failure of crops or other such causes there occurs such a destruction of the human race as tradition tells us has more than once happened, and as we must believe will often happen again, all arts and crafts perishing at the same time, then in the course of time, when springing from the survivors as from seeds men have again increased in numbers and just like other animals form herds — it being a matter of course that they too should herd together with those of their kind owing to their natural weakness — it is a necessary consequence that the man who excels in bodily strength and in courage will lead and rule over the rest. We observe and should regard as a most genuine work of nature this very phenomenon in the case of the other animals which act purely by instinct and among whom the strongest are always indisputably the masters — I speak of bulls, boars, cocks, and the like. It is probable then that at the beginning men lived thus, herding together like animals and following the lead of the strongest and bravest, the ruler's strength being here the sole limit to his power and the name we should give his rule being monarchy.

But when in time feelings of sociability and companionship begin to grow in such gatherings of men, than kingship has struck root; and the notions of goodness, justice, and their opposites begin to arise in men. The manner in which these notions come into being is as follows. [...] Now when the leading and most powerful man among the people always throws the weight of his authority on the side of the notions on such matters which generally prevail, and when in the opinion of his subjects he apportions rewards and penalties according to desert, they yield obedience to him no longer because they fear his force, but rather because their judgement approves him; and they join in maintaining his rule even if he is quite enfeebled by age, defending him with one consent and battling against those who conspire to overthrow his rule. Thus by insensible degrees the monarch becomes a king, ferocity and force having yielded the supremacy to reason.

Thus is formed naturally among men the first notion of goodness and justice, and their opposites; this is the beginning and birth of true kingship. For the people maintain the supreme power not only in the hands of these men themselves, but in those of their descendants, from the conviction that those born from and reared by such men will also have principles like to theirs. And if they ever are displeased with the descendants, they now choose their kings and rulers no longer for their bodily strength and brute courage, but for the excellency of their judgement and reasoning powers, as they have gained experience from actual facts of the difference between the one class of qualities and the other. In old times, then, those who had once been chosen to the royal office continued to hold it until they grew old, fortifying and enclosing fine strongholds with walls and acquiring lands, in the one case for the sake of the security of their subjects and in the other to provide them with abundance of the necessities of life. And while pursuing these aims, they were exempt from all vituperation or jealousy, as neither in their dress nor in their food did they make any great distinction, they lived very much like everyone else, not keeping apart from the people. But when they received the office by hereditary succession and found their safety now provided for, and more than sufficient provision of food, they gave way to their appetites owing to this superabundance, and came to think that the rulers must be distinguished from their subjects by a peculiar dress, that there should be a peculiar luxury and variety in the dressing and serving of their viands, and that they should meet with no denial in the pursuit of their amours, however lawless. These habits having given rise in the one case to envy and offence and in the other to an outburst of hatred and passionate resentment, the kingship changed into a tyranny; the first steps towards its overthrow were taken by the subjects, and conspiracies began to be formed. These conspiracies were not the work of the worst men, but of the noblest, most high-spirited, and most courageous, because such men are least able to brook the insolence of princes. The people now having got leaders, would combine with them against the ruling powers for the reasons I stated above; kingship and monarchy would be utterly abolished, and in their place aristocracy would begin to grow. For the commons, as if bound to pay at once their debt of gratitude to the abolishers of monarchy, would make them their leaders and entrust their destinies to them. At first these chiefs gladly assumed this charge and regarded nothing as of greater importance than the common interest, administering the private and public affairs of the people with paternal solicitude. But here again when children inherited this position of authority from their fathers, having no experience of misfortune and none at all of civil equality and liberty of speech, and having been brought up from the cradle amid the evidences of the power and high position of their fathers, they abandoned themselves some to greed of gain and unscrupulous money-making, others to indulgence in wine and the convivial excess which accompanies it, and others again to the violation of women and the rape of boys; and thus converting the aristocracy into an oligarchy aroused in the people feelings similar to those of which  I just spoke, and in consequence met with the same disastrous end as the tyrant. For whenever anyone who has noticed the jealousy and hatred with which you are regarded by the citizens, has the courage to speak or act against the chiefs of the state he has the whole mass of the people ready to back him. Next, when they have either killed or banished the oligarchs, they no longer venture to set a king over them, as they still remember with terror the injustice they suffered from the former ones, nor can they entrust the government with confidence to a select few, with the evidence before them of their recent error in doing so. Thus the only hope still surviving unimpaired is in themselves, and to this they resort, making the state a democracy instead of an oligarchy and assuming the responsibility for the conduct of affairs. Then as long as some of those survive who experienced the evils of oligarchical dominion, they are well pleased with the present form of government, and set a high value on equality and freedom of speech. But when a new generation arises and the democracy falls into the hands of the grandchildren of its founders, they have become so accustomed to freedom and equality that they no longer value them, and begin to aim at pre-eminence; and it is chiefly those of ample fortune who fall into this error. So when they begin to lust for power and cannot attain it through themselves or their own good qualities, they ruin their estates, tempting and corrupting the people in every possible way. And hence when by their foolish thirst for reputation they have created among the masses an appetite for gifts and the habit of receiving them, democracy in its turn is abolished and changes into a rule of force and violence [mob-rule]. For the people, having grown accustomed to feed at the expense of others and to depend for their livelihood on the property of others, as soon as they find a leader who is enterprising but is excluded from the houses of office by his penury, institute the rule of violence; and now uniting their forces massacre, banish, and plunder, until they degenerate again into perfect savages and find once more a master and monarch.

Such is the cycle of political revolution, the course appointed by nature in which constitutions change, disappear, and finally return to the point from which they started. Anyone who clearly perceives this may indeed in speaking of the future of any state be wrong in his estimate of the time the process will take, but if his judgement is not tainted by animosity or jealousy, he will very seldom be mistaken as to the stage of growth or decline it has reached, and as to the form into which it will change. And especially in the case of the Roman state will this method enable us to arrive at a knowledge of its formation, growth, and greatest perfection, and likewise of the change for the worse which is sure to follow some day. For, as I said, this state, more than any other, has been formed and has grown naturally, and will undergo a natural decline and change to its contrary.


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: squog on April 18, 2018, 08:03:24 AM
I think this could still hold true. It's just that the progression is much slower with the number of adjacent country, the number of resources and moral standing. If for example a country has fallen to mob rule, it would be easier for adjacent countries to invade it therefore not collapsing to monarcy (unless the adjacent country is monarchy). Next if it's people are well taken care of then it would take amich slower pace to mob rule. Lastly, if moral standing is strong, it would not go down to mob rule but will hsve a smooth political transition.


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: Krsps on April 20, 2018, 05:18:02 PM
Thank you for this profoundly insightful post. Polybius was certainly a visionary for the ages and saw things very accurately from a high perspective. And to me, this explains exactly what we are going through now.

The Millennium generation is a group that, more than any in recent generations have had everything handed to them on a silver platter. Along with this they were always told they were more special than anyone. It is certainly true that everyone is special, but because of this exaggerated emphasis, the results have  produced  many who think it is their right and privilege to take what ever they want with little regard to ethics of fairness and integrity and sometimes kindness.  It's not entirely their fault or even their parents.
This generation just doesn't have the experience of the previous generations and lack understanding of how precious the rights and privileges are and how hard people fought and died to get them. So there is an air of entitlement and violence enters.

I believe we are at the end of Democracy and on the brink of Mob Rule. This explains a ruler who appeals to Mob mentality and riles them up to do the ruler's bidding.  And then later the Mob will over throw this ruler too, as the Mob take on a life of it's own. And as time goes on a true leader will emerge from the Mob and we will be back to Monarchy. It is also interesting that in the time of Mob rule little may be left of all the accomplishments of the entire previous era or cycle. The high accomplishments and landmarks of the previous civilization maybe reduced to fairy tales, folk lore, and religion.

But I also have hope in this new generation as there are many who surprisingly adept and gracious, bold and unaffected by authority unless there is a real sunstance to it. Perhaps they will break this cycle or change it in some way.


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: seoincorporation on April 20, 2018, 06:10:25 PM
I've been long aware of this marvelous Polybious text and yes, this kind of cycle is still happening in our society.
After long periods of inconsistency, a tyrant always rise. This is maybe difficult to see nowadays, for we all live under the false impression of "freedom", but there is not freedom at all.
Two of the most powerful countries around the world are led by tyrants, as we all now. Even so, in the smallest countries with poorest economies, we have tyrants after revolutionary thoughts, as an endless circle of despair. Once the revolution is over, this is common to see how the supposedly freedom-seekers become, once again, tyrants. And every happens in an eternal cycle, from the time and Polybious and even before that.

If you study the Humankind HIstory, this is always the same.
Now, how is Bitcoin entering into this world? I don't believe the new crypto-economy will lead to an important change in this matter. Humankind has a predictable behavior, and even when important economic changes take place, the history doesn't seem to be able to escape from the eternal cycle. Our society is still in the middle ages in so many places (I can say in maybe the 60% of the globe the people still have middle-ages beliefs, such religion). We live in a different world, we live in the cyberlife, where knowledge is available to many, where we can read, we can build complex ideas. But when the hunger, the war, the ignorance, the tyranny is your way-of-life, bitcoin will suppose nothing.
Somehow, we are used to thinking about the world with our eyes, so we usually forget there are many people (most of humanity) with no access to the world we new, with no access to internet, medical service, food, water, and, of course with no clue of who Polybious is. Bitcoin is here, and it will matter to a section of the world. But just to a section.


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: Krsps on April 20, 2018, 06:29:46 PM
Bitcoin and cryptocurrency certainly is revolutionary!  Maybe the most revolutionary, as currency has always been government controled. And I  agree that more than ever, there are multiple worlds of existence with entirely different values and beliefs going on at the same time. Thanks again for this informative post.


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: mrcash02 on April 21, 2018, 01:24:38 AM
It's very interesting how something that was written millennia ago is still on topic in our current days. That is the proof human race didn't change anything, people are still the same and technology wasn't enough to change their minds and to help them to evolve.

For this reason, I don't think Bitcoin can do much to change this looping societies are involved.
A society where "everyone is and can reasonably be sovereign over his own affairs" demands that each individual is really individual and authentic, what is the opposite of the reality. Most people need someone to follow and to give them an opinion. It can be the media, religions, ideologies, friends, influential people in general, etc...

A good example of this is the forum. I have seen theoretically each person here was supposed to build their own trust list, so there wouldn't be a "king, an aristocracy, or a majority", but people didn't want to go through this path, even having the possibility and the endorsement to do so.

The "vicious circle" exists because people are fine with it, they are conniving with it. I think technology (Bitcoin is an example) can't do anything to change this reality, the only way to break the circle is to awaken the conscience inside ourselves, awakening the unconscious inner self that inhabits each one of us. This one has enough authenticity, skills and knowledge to make use of the tools around (Bitcoin is one of them) to achieve the individual sovereignty once and for all.


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: seoincorporation on April 21, 2018, 02:47:59 PM
Precisely. We have in our hands' amazing technology, such smartphones (smart??) and look at what use the people gives to them: Facebook, Instagram, and this stuff where you have animal faces (I don't know what are they), etc.
They don't use technology to download marvelous books, to read, to learn, but to share their beach photos and their morning-flowered coffees. Even when most of the people are aware of the Facebooks scandal, they don't care, for the entertainment and the ignorance is all they seek, as in a Huxley's nightmare.

In the times of Polybious, people were few compared with today and, yet, he was able to read society and to understand the cycle of nonsense. With all the advances having place each day, the common of the population prefers to stay ignorant and to follow the mainstream thoughts, despite they have all in the palm of their hands (obviously I refer only a part of the population). We must add to this, perhaps, the crazy increment of the population, this insane reproduction of a species, as cancer growing on the surface of the Earth. But, even so, the behaviors haven't changed much from the last 3.000 years.

So, yes, Bitcoin, I'm afraid, has not enough power to reach the minds of the people, it can be used (someday) by them, but as another useful tool, not as a concept. All the internet creation was a revolution, back in the 80s. And look the result: a nightmare of surveillance even Orwell couldn't see, for it is a voluntary surveillance, made happily by the people.
If Bitcoin was seeking anonymity in its ideological fight against the system, the bank... well, people are not interested, they prefer their coffee-pic, their selfies, and their gym.


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: Hero of Legendary on April 21, 2018, 06:24:38 PM
Quote
He predicts that all governments/societies go through a 7-stage cycle
The word "predict" is not the right term, sounds religious, :D not fit to Polybius because he's historian which was the reason why he understood the situation and the 7 cycle already happening before and during his time.

Quote
What do you think? Does this idea still have merit 2100+ years later?
Yes!

Quote
If so, at what point in the cycle are we in now?
Mix except monarchy, democracy (I was tempted not to include democracy because of misusing it for personal gain, like in a country where democracy exist, communist use the system to pursue their goal, not just the communist but also the evil government officials are hiding in it, and the some reason that lead confusion to a simple country man), and aristocracy.

Quote
If this cycle is indeed inevitable in politics, then Bitcoin offers a hope of escape,since Bitcoin (and crypto-anarchy generally) is all about removing politics from life.
Removing politics from life will never happen, why? Because it is life who created the politics. And even bitcoin reach its purpose it will not works perfectly to break the garbage because it is inside of everyone's heart.
Read this:
Quote
But here again when children inherited this position of authority from their fathers, having no experience of misfortune and none at all of civil equality and liberty of speech, and having been brought up from the cradle amid the evidences of the power and high position of their fathers, they abandoned themselves some to greed of gain and unscrupulous money-making, others to indulgence in wine and the convivial excess which accompanies it, and others again to the violation of women and the rape of boys

And thus the hope that bitcoin wants to offer is just a false hope.

Society will not taste the success without the form of leadership, thus bitcoin will just a false savior for man's longing and could be another thing of disappointment.
For me the only way for bitcoin to bring  great success, it should be under the rule of a good monarchy system controlled by aristocrats. Aristocrat according to Socrates is someone who is selfless, has the heart for his country, well educated and full of wisdom.
I read remember in his book he says " the country should be lead by aristocrats in order to experience peace, equality, and success" (this is paraphrase)

Lastly, bitcoin will never experience success for its very purpose without the back up of the noble leaders.


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: digaran on April 21, 2018, 09:35:23 PM
Quote
when children inherited this position of authority from their fathers, having no experience of misfortune and none at all of civil equality and liberty of speech, and having been brought up from the cradle amid the evidences of the power and high position of their fathers, they abandoned themselves some to greed of gain and unscrupulous money-making, others to indulgence in wine and the convivial excess which accompanies it, and others again to the violation of women

I think he was talking about our DT1-2 members and even mentioned something about alia, look in the bold part.

Quote
rulers must be distinguished from their subjects by a peculiar dress, that there should be a peculiar luxury and variety in the dressing and serving of their viands, and that they should meet with no denial in the pursuit of their amours, however lawless. These habits having given rise in the one case to envy and offence and in the other to an outburst of hatred and passionate resentment,

Again DT1-2 members and then mentioning something about QS and OG. a little bit of humble Joe and friends.

Quote
So when they begin to lust for power and cannot attain it through themselves or their own good qualities, they ruin their estates, tempting and corrupting the people in every possible way. And hence when by their foolish thirst for reputation they have created among the masses an appetite for gifts and the habit of receiving them,

I'm confused now. at some point I can see myself in there, and then

Quote
as soon as they find a leader who is enterprising but is excluded from the houses of office by his penury, institute the rule of violence

Like The Pharmacist bursting out and I'd demand for immediate action. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3363270.msg35265618#msg35265618)

Quote
rule of force and violence [mob-rule].

This should be changed to [mod-rule].

In my arrogant opinion, this forum is a small version of the world outside. I think we already had the jumping on women and now entering in to the violence and mob-rule phase.



Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: Steamtyme on April 22, 2018, 11:23:17 PM
Thank you for this, it's not often I find myself reading anything insightful these days.
Also thank you to diagaran for posting a link to this thread.

I do often find myself tuning out the realities of the world we live in, not so much for the blissful ignorance but to give myself a break. I think if you look around the world today you can find almost every one of the 7 stages currently taking place. Unfortunately (my view) mob rule appears to be the one sticking out the most in my mind. This is mostly due to the fact that under democracy everyone's voice is supposed to carry equal weight. Unfortunately with that equal weight their is not the same onus on being equally informed. You can ask 10 people to weigh in on a serious political discussion and you'd be lucky to find 2 that have enough information or awareness to be informed.

Sadly you could ask the same 10 people something about big brother/kardashians/random pop culture icon flavor of the month; and the majority will be more engaged than they have been about any political or society related issue ever. Regardless of views on governments I currently live within a democracy bordering on a slide towards mob rule; in the form of populism based on fear mongering. While my country is not as bad as some I find myself having a harder time conducting serious conversations with people who have cherry picked their facts from random sites on the internet.

To go back to topic a little more I myself feel we will see less and less of the cycle reverting to Monarchy and Kingship unless, we have an extinction class event; man made(most likely) or not. I do believe that we have more so done mini cycles going from a MOB rule to Tyranny and then transitioning into aristocracy. The early days may have the feel of Monarchy and Kingship but I think in most cases this is a short lived period.

In regards to Crypto being able to break the cycles; it's hard to say. This cycle was born out of human nature and we are still a factor in the Crypto ecosystem. We already have people claiming the virtuous path and trying to gear Bitcoin to their vision. There is already large amounts of consolidated wealth that grows larger by the day. The reason I don't feel that Crypto in it's current form will break the cycle is that not enough of society has adopted it at it's inception. If when the world has universally adopted Crypto a coin is launched with everyone having access to it in the beginning there may be a chance. Although I feel we will just create a new cycle until we can find our way beyond the self preservation of human nature and move towards a species preservation mindset.

That will be fine until; "When owing to floods, famines, failure of crops or other such causes there occurs such a destruction of the human race as tradition tells us has more than once happened, and as we must believe will often happen again, all arts and crafts perishing at the same time" Quoted from OP; The Histories


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: digaran on April 23, 2018, 03:24:17 AM
If when the world has universally adopted Crypto a coin is launched with everyone having access to it in the beginning there may be a chance.

There is a chance, too many of them actually being announced in this forum. even if you start over with Bitcoin mining, you'd increase the mining difficulty as soon as the second miner starts mining.

In regards to Crypto being able to break the cycles; it's hard to say.

Is it really that hard? if Billions of dollars being freely transferred every day is not breaking the cycle I don't know what else could be considered to be a cycle breaker.


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: Steamtyme on April 23, 2018, 12:30:26 PM


There is a chance, too many of them actually being announced in this forum. even if you start over with Bitcoin mining, you'd increase the mining difficulty as soon as the second miner starts mining.

Your right difficulty would skyrocket in any coin globally adopted and introduced. I feel that would be what drives that financial systems pricing and value as well as inflation. My point was that everyone would be on a somewhat leveled playing field. Anyone currently wealthy would obviously still be able to secure a greater share of the networks hashing power; thus i guess restarting the cycles


Is it really that hard? if Billions of dollars being freely transferred every day is not breaking the cycle I don't know what else could be considered to be a cycle breaker.


In the current form the cryptocurrency market is a secondary financial ecosystem. Comparable to something like Disney land bucks; not sure if they exist never been.

The billions of dollars have value and are available for trade and barter because we within the system give it value. So until the system stops equatting it to say a USD value; it's more of a disruption to the norms of the financial and taxation systems than anything.

EDIT: Edited spelling errors and autocorrect


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: CoinCube on April 23, 2018, 10:51:36 PM
If this cycle is indeed inevitable in politics, then Bitcoin offers a hope of escape, since Bitcoin (and crypto-anarchy generally) is all about removing politics from life. Instead of trusting a king, an aristocracy, or a majority, you structure things so that everyone is and can reasonably be sovereign over his own affairs.


I do think Bitcoin offers a hope of escape or at least resistance over the longer term.

Polybius was clearly a very insightful individual and his writings highlight the fact that human nature has not really changed much over the last 2000 years.

The cycle was articulated with a slightly different focus by Henning Webb Prentis, Jr in the 1940's but it is the same basic idea.

Quote from:  Henning Webb Prentis, Jr
Paradoxically enough, the release of initiative and enterprise made possible by popular self-government ultimately generates disintegrating forces from within. Again and again after freedom has brought opportunity and some degree of plenty, the competent become selfish, luxury-loving and complacent, the incompetent and the unfortunate grow envious and covetous, and all three groups turn aside from the hard road of freedom to worship the Golden Calf of economic security.

The historical cycle seems to be: From bondage to spiritual faith; from spiritual faith to courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance; from abundance to selfishness; from selfishness to apathy; from apathy to dependency; and from dependency back to bondage once more."

I think the cycle is mostly accurate but it has two basic requirements for progression to occur.
 
1) There has to be moral corruption that those with power are susceptible too.
2) There has to be a means by which the corrupt can be overthrown

If we ever reached the stage where there was leadership without corruption they cycle would cease. If we ever reached the stage where tyranny was absolute omnipresent and oppressive with no viable way to ever overthrow it the cycle would also cease.

Unfortunately of the two possible ends to this cycle a permanent tyranny appears the more likely one.
We are a perhaps only a single generation away from the time when technological advances will probably make overthrowing a tyranny nearly impossible once it is established.

AgentofCoin highlighted out how this could play out.

Re: What is the future of bitcoin in 2025?
Around this time, many countries will have already converted their physical
monetary systems to digital systems, likely using editable ledger systems.
They will not be public, immutable, decentralized, or etc, and will not be
utilized for the purpose of a more efficient and fair monetary system, but
to assist and ensure governmental control and monitoring of their citizens.
Under this system, purchases are recorded and analyzed instantly to
determine the human's probable future actions.

Based upon this system, in conjunctions with a synthetic implant powered
and secured by the human's nervous system shortly thereafter, it will be
possible to implement an end game scenario where human rights no longer
exist since they can be denied by erasing your existence from their system.
In those countries, citizens who have been "erased" will be unable to even
buy a loaf of bread or be given access to medical service facilities. Any
citizens who come across an "erased" will be accused of unlawful association,
and thus be subject to possible removal from their system. This reinforces
the government's power and control over the human citizens. The humans
in this system can never collectively organize and attempt to overthrow this
totalitarian control system since their future actions are calculated based
upon their recent actions and recent inactions.

At this time, the Bitcoin Network is the only free and fair montary system
that allows humans to survive outside of this future totalitarian system.
Majority of individuals who have been "erased" will form small collectives
which perform services that are legal or deemed illegal by those counties,
and will be compensated through bitcoins. Citizens within these countries
will at times need the services of the "erased" and so some will possess
bitcoins in secret so that they can purchase their particular services.

I think that cryptocurrency will force reform of fiat currency. The scenario traincarswreck
presented is one where bitcoin will force fiat to more closely approximate nash's ideal money over time and this forced reform will probably happen. Traincarswreck thesis was unnecessarily hard to follow but it was in the following thread.

Open Letter to GMaxwell and Sincere Rational Core Devs
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1809999.0

Trainscarswreck process of reform, however, leads logically to a single world centrally controlled nashian currency from which it is very easy to fall into the tyranny AgentofCoin outlined.

I would prefer to be utterly wrong in my analysis of this probable future.


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: theymos on April 25, 2018, 01:34:02 AM
Unfortunately of the two possible ends to this cycle a permanent tyranny appears the more likely one.
We are a perhaps only a single generation away from the time when technological advances will probably make overthrowing a tyranny nearly impossible once it is established.

I've also been getting increasingly worried about that possibility. What worries me most is a 1984-style scenario where the game is constructed such that even the people "in charge" can't escape. If someone is in charge, then there's some hope, since I think that almost everyone is at least a little decent, and even most tyrants would not want to completely crush all freedom and virtue. But with technology, I could see humanity trapping itself utterly in some perpetual machine with no freedom or progress of any kind.


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: Steamtyme on April 25, 2018, 03:46:30 AM

*snip* What worries me most is a 1984-style scenario where the game is constructed such that even the people "in charge" can't escape.
The worst part about that is how freely the majority of the world has taken steps towards this scenario by choice. I fell into an interesting generation where I can still see the technological "progress" for what it is and is not. I can also admit that *life has gotten in the way a bit and I have only recently began focusing more on what information I want to share with the world and what I do not. I assume anything I put out there is in fact available to anyone at anytime.

The simplest example to me currently has been the way I am now targeted by every Crypto ad, or GPU rig component ad, every time I open a site. The same was being done with targeted political messaging/propaganda; so I feel society needs to be educated on the value of finding that tiny space in your life that is out of sight and sound of the screen.  Without that space it is hard to tune out the terrible atrocities committed by Eurasia and Eastasia.

Quote from: theymos
If someone is in charge, then there's some hope, since I think that almost everyone is at least a little decent, and even most tyrants would not want to completely crush all freedom and virtue.

One would hope so but there have been times when these Tyrants or Kings have also suffered from delusions or mental illness. Untreated and unchecked all bets are off. Thanks to my wife I learned a decent amount about Henry the 8th; you could wonder how this man showed love or compassion and still acted with such indifference.
More recently I look at North Korea; and am supposed to see this new side of Kim Jong Un because he released the video of a terrible bus accident and was said to have uncontrollable grief. I would like to believe that, truly, but I would also like to think if that was possible he is looking back at his past and the grief is also remorse. Perhaps it will be an opportunity for freedom and virtue to make a comeback.

Quote from: theymos
But with technology, I could see humanity trapping itself utterly in some perpetual machine with no freedom or progress of any kind.

* We already have a trap that is going to assist in leading us there; and it has infiltrated crypto almost like the little brother that tags along. It's credit, the simplest way to keep people in line and focused away from progress or the world outside their bubble; is to have them indebted. Then when you add the layers of technology and data mining to that a person has lost all their secrets before they thought to ask "why".

Going over all of this I feel we are disturbingly close to your point. If someone stands out and is in some way different they can be known within hours across the globe. Thanks to smartphones we have given whatever agency or corporation wants it; access to an all seeing eye. With that system in place when someone/thing has their moment, it will not be noticed by the masses but their will be a gradual change and we can only hope enough people are aware of it. This is when I like to think self preservation or even the preservation of a cause finds it's here; the ones that despite the possibility of failure try what needs to be done.


I would prefer to be utterly wrong in my analysis of this probable future.

I would like to as well. I enjoyed the Agentofcoin read the first time I saw it thanks for the refresher. I plan to spend a few nights reading through your SIG.



Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: CoinCube on April 25, 2018, 06:03:22 AM

I've also been getting increasingly worried about that possibility. What worries me most is a 1984-style scenario where the game is constructed such that even the people "in charge" can't escape. If someone is in charge, then there's some hope, since I think that almost everyone is at least a little decent, and even most tyrants would not want to completely crush all freedom and virtue. But with technology, I could see humanity trapping itself utterly in some perpetual machine with no freedom or progress of any kind.

That scenario unfortunately strikes me as very probable.

There is perhaps currently a push away from that direction in the US but I suspect it represents only a temporary reprieve.

The current financial boom is simply the result of leveraging debt based stimulus for everything it is worth. When the value of fiat starts to progressively erode as it must and unsustainable promises and benefits are threatened I very much doubt the populace will ask for less control and redistribution but demand more. The increasing rise of automation will further concentrate economic power into the hands of the few resulting in ever larger numbers of government dependents. This will exacerbate the problem.

My hope is that there are other forces at play  currently or in the future that will alter this trajectory. Unfortunately, I do not know what those might be.

Anonymint when he was still around offered one of the more hopeful alternatives I have come across in his hypothesis of a future knowledge age.

The Rise of Knowledge (http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Demise%20of%20Finance,%20Rise%20of%20Knowledge.html)

I am less confident then he is about the path from our current position to his hypothesized future.


I would like to as well. I enjoyed the Agentofcoin read the first time I saw it thanks for the refresher. I plan to spend a few nights reading through your SIG.


Your welcome, the signature is just a collection of links to various things I have found interesting. A couple of them are short video clips. A few point to particularly interesting blogs of others elsewhere. Most are links to some of my prior posts in other threads that I thought people might find interesting.


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: TheBeardedBaby on April 25, 2018, 12:23:04 PM
Reading trough all you comments here I want to show you the bigger picture, you may not agree with.
1984 is just a small fraction of what is coming towards us, / or is already here/.
The governments are just puppets they are nothing, same as presidents or kings, . The people sitting behind them (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnKhsTXoKCI) are the big problem.
Let me illustrate it so you get my point >

https://i.imgur.com/yikb1KE.jpg (https://i.imgur.com/yikb1KE.jpg)

Talking about religion, well I'm christian but still, it's the same with all the other religions, just tool of control, fear ..
https://i.imgur.com/GnRGSk4.jpg (https://i.imgur.com/GnRGSk4.jpg)

Call me a crazy conspiracy theorist but projects like MKUltra (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_MKUltra) and the Monarch (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsr1wLxa0WI) developed by the very own government are not something people would like to hear about. Some of the victims are speaking out the truth now, after so many years.
All those mass killers are not coincidence, I guess Assange can also speak out, did you ever wonder why he is always with white/blonde/ hair? (https://medium.com/@sebastianedward/mk-ultra-project-monarch-and-julian-assange-ad2aa42ba1a4)
Let me add some more hot topics >

The "Clinton Body Count"
https://i.imgur.com/DLuEwPH.jpg (https://i.imgur.com/DLuEwPH.jpg)

And the pedophile ring..
https://i.imgur.com/OAZ2vxq.png (https://i.imgur.com/OAZ2vxq.png)

This is gonna be just a brief post, there is so much to discuss, but the time is not enough.

We already living in 1984 but we do not see it. The food you eat (http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread1185591/pg1), the air you breath, the water you drink, everything is controlled, you are thoughts are controlled by the TV, Media, your Phone tracks every step you do (https://www.google.com/maps/timeline). Everything is under under observation, you cannot escape.

Yeah, bitcoin gives you just a small whiff of fresh air but we have to do more to be free. Freedom is just illusion, as is the democracy, the people's voice is silence, why? Because THEY don't want you to be able to think and to fight against THEM.

They want to be GOD, and sadly they are.




Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: Bonanzabits on April 25, 2018, 01:20:21 PM
I've also been getting increasingly worried about that possibility. What worries me most is a 1984-style scenario where the game is constructed such that even the people "in charge" can't escape. If someone is in charge, then there's some hope, since I think that almost everyone is at least a little decent, and even most tyrants would not want to completely crush all freedom and virtue. But with technology, I could see humanity trapping itself utterly in some perpetual machine with no freedom or progress of any kind.
In any convergent social system where a group of people are located, starting with 150 or more people, an archetype ecosystem is formed in which a divergent unit of thinking appears, exhibiting deviant behavior with probability 1. This is a kind of "randomizer generator" "this allows a person to be identified in humanity . In the minds of each of us there are these 150 archetypes. The problem is that some of them are suppressed. And this happens as long as humanity remembers itself. And there is a way to balance the mind by turning it off from reality - it's psychoactive substances. At least tetrahydrocannabinol (contained in marijuana) is able to re-install most systems in humans, correcting its ability to reflect the objective reality.

The language of technology is convergent and unambiguous, in order to be soulful humanity it is also necessary to develop a new ways of imaginative thinking and communication. Not only new money is needed, but a new language is also needed.

The future is connected with the development of communication methods and a new language - psychoactive substances will help us to create it. The most important thing is not to follow the path of consumption in the sphere of psychoactive substances. With this you should to be treated with respect and trembling. This is a responsible game with a soul.

Remember, there is always a way of existence under which a person becomes uncontrollable. And governments, in turn, can not simply take and destroy such people, especially if they are the majority. Play, do not stop, be carried away and gonna be obsessed with your ideas, then they will not be able to control you..


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: CoinCube on April 25, 2018, 04:35:36 PM
...
The governments are just puppets they are nothing, same as presidents or kings, . The people sitting behind them (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnKhsTXoKCI) are the big problem.
 

The people have always been the problem. Human nature is deeply flawed. That ultimately is the common theme in each stage of the cycle highlighted by Polybius all those years ago.

Another problem arises from the fact that we are rapidly growing more powerful.
One man with a knife can only do so much harm. One man with a bioweapons lab quite a bit more. This trend will only accelerate in the years to come.

Without equal growth in moral behavior technological progress must inevitably lead to an ever growing omnipresent state as a logical necessity. Freedom requires self control if the people cannot control themselves the state will grow and step in to fill the role. The more powerful the populace  becomes via technological progress the more self control the people will need to have if they wish to be free.

I see little chance that any moral progression will keep pace with technological progress. Thus I suspect the future will inevitably be less free then the present.


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: NadiaHel on April 25, 2018, 09:51:13 PM

I've also been getting increasingly worried about that possibility. What worries me most is a 1984-style scenario where the game is constructed such that even the people "in charge" can't escape. If someone is in charge, then there's some hope, since I think that almost everyone is at least a little decent, and even most tyrants would not want to completely crush all freedom and virtue. But with technology, I could see humanity trapping itself utterly in some perpetual machine with no freedom or progress of any kind.

Two hundred years ago, a man called Henry David Thoreau wrote: "Men have become tools of their own tools". And thus, in resume, is the idea I`m going to explain...


1984 wasn`t supposed to be a manual, and yet it is. But I believe the world is taking two different paths (but I don`t mean those paths to be in different countries, they can coexist in one country at the time). The first, an Orwellian one, in with the people is controlled (overcontrolled) by the government, at the same time as afraid due to an invented war. An example of that is Mexico, where the population is living under the false impression of democracy ("the tyranny of the ignorant people", as Platon used to say), but where the tyranny is the real statement: they live under the police tyranny, the corrupted government; they live in a nightmare of deceased ones and disappearances... But, yet, they stay in silent, for the false image of a democracy, and the continuous message of fear is really effective. Thus, an Orwellian panorama is happening in many places, but the common feature of this situation to succeed seems to be poverty.

We have the other path: the Huxley`s one, where the people is so distracted they don`t even care. In "A Brave new world" Huxley described how a society can be happy by being ignorant and programmed, by being distracted all the time, by evading insights, thoughts and profounds feelings. Just take a walk on any capital in the world. Go to London, Paris, Madrid, even the "nice" part of Mexico City; go anyplace with some commodities granted. What will you discover?? Huxley`s descriptions: human relationships are cold; people worried about how they look, where they go to take a coffee, what colour they should wear in their hear; what`s trending; how many likes they got today...

Meantime, both paths come together into something terrible: surveillance. I think another user wrote about that in a previous quote. He said something like people is nicely sharing anything, they share their faces, their lives, their personal information, the name of their cousins, parents, sons; they share where they went the last week, where and with who were yesterday hanging out; they share everything, their routines, their medical records, almost!! Because here is where the paths come together: Huxley and his society being occupied, distracted, and Orwell`s surveillance. Neither Huxley nor Orwell couldn't have foreseen the reality: people are willing to do this, to share to renounce to their freedom, to put on the public table all their dreams, their activities and -the worst part- their relative's ones.

This is the world we are building? People are now being conditioned to share everything, so don`t have even an identity. In the world I live, at least -which happens to be in Europe-, all I can see is children growing up in the society of the "sharing", the "likes" and the "trending topics". Will this children understand in a future how damaged it is? No. We are creating a whole new concept of "freetyranny", where the world is taken those mixed paths and drawing a terrible future. Is the society going to change, to evolve? No, I don`t think so. It has happened before, and it will happen again, and again, and again: people willing to believe anything in order to get some public recognition.
All of them are implied. You see, the Congress in the US asking Mr Zuck their questions, is an amazing example. We live in a Facebook world, with all that that implies. A FACEBOOK world, where there is nobody in charge anymore. The society has changed into this facebook world nightmare, and it has been done voluntarily. All the congressmen and women have a Facebook account, every day they share what the people must see of them; every day they use it as a tool, but, surely, every day they also worried about the "likes" and the "views". They are trapped in the game.

How in the hell can humankind come into this? How can be THIS the chosen path?
I can`t answer that question, but, I`m sure, that`s a fact, sadly.
 


 


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: mrcash02 on April 29, 2018, 12:44:32 AM
After watching that Snowden's movie it's clear no one can be hidden nowadays and privacy is already gone. There is indeed someone somewhere that can have a detailed report about you in particular anytime, if wished. And there is nothing to do about it, technology brings accessibility, facilities, but also gives more power to those who control/develop it, and what do these powerful people want? To be on control. Consequently they need to watch us closely.

That is one more reason to not do anything wrong in life. If you start bothering a "big guy", a powerful group, their interests, these people will collect enough evidences about you, the mistakes you committed in the past (or any other aspects they know about your life), and will use it against you in the present time, until you aren't a threat to the established system anymore.

In my opinion that is the main issue. Powerful groups of interest use the lack of privacy to take advantage of you, to affect you negatively, unscrupulously. If they were just "curious" about people's lives I think it wouldn't be a problem at all...

Facebook scandal opened this reality to the public, but even without this social media there are another and more efficient methods/technologies that can be used to watch people's movements, I suppose. One another problem nowadays is that anyone who starts talking about this subject is called crazy, conspiracy theorist by the majority, as said above in another post. So the voices are silenced, as no one wants to be seen as crazy.

The variables about what can happen are many and change from place to place (country to country).


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: Krsps on April 30, 2018, 06:58:12 AM

I've also been getting increasingly worried about that possibility. What worries me most is a 1984-style scenario where the game is constructed such that even the people "in charge" can't escape. If someone is in charge, then there's some hope, since I think that almost everyone is at least a little decent, and even most tyrants would not want to completely crush all freedom and virtue. But with technology, I could see humanity trapping itself utterly in some perpetual machine with no freedom or progress of any kind.

Two hundred years ago, a man called Henry David Thoreau wrote: "Men have become tools of their own tools". And thus, in resume, is the idea I`m going to explain...


1984 wasn`t supposed to be a manual, and yet it is. But I believe the world is taking two different paths (but I don`t mean those paths to be in different countries, they can coexist in one country at the time). The first, an Orwellian one, in with the people is controlled (overcontrolled) by the government, at the same time as afraid due to an invented war. An example of that is Mexico, where the population is living under the false impression of democracy ("the tyranny of the ignorant people", as Platon used to say), but where the tyranny is the real statement: they live under the police tyranny, the corrupted government; they live in a nightmare of deceased ones and disappearances... But, yet, they stay in silent, for the false image of a democracy, and the continuous message of fear is really effective. Thus, an Orwellian panorama is happening in many places, but the common feature of this situation to succeed seems to be poverty.

We have the other path: the Huxley`s one, where the people is so distracted they don`t even care. In "A Brave new world" Huxley described how a society can be happy by being ignorant and programmed, by being distracted all the time, by evading insights, thoughts and profounds feelings. Just take a walk on any capital in the world. Go to London, Paris, Madrid, even the "nice" part of Mexico City; go anyplace with some commodities granted. What will you discover?? Huxley`s descriptions: human relationships are cold; people worried about how they look, where they go to take a coffee, what colour they should wear in their hear; what`s trending; how many likes they got today...

Meantime, both paths come together into something terrible: surveillance. I think another user wrote about that in a previous quote. He said something like people is nicely sharing anything, they share their faces, their lives, their personal information, the name of their cousins, parents, sons; they share where they went the last week, where and with who were yesterday hanging out; they share everything, their routines, their medical records, almost!! Because here is where the paths come together: Huxley and his society being occupied, distracted, and Orwell`s surveillance. Neither Huxley nor Orwell couldn't have foreseen the reality: people are willing to do this, to share to renounce to their freedom, to put on the public table all their dreams, their activities and -the worst part- their relative's ones.

This is the world we are building? People are now being conditioned to share everything, so don`t have even an identity. In the world I live, at least -which happens to be in Europe-, all I can see is children growing up in the society of the "sharing", the "likes" and the "trending topics". Will this children understand in a future how damaged it is? No. We are creating a whole new concept of "freetyranny", where the world is taken those mixed paths and drawing a terrible future. Is the society going to change, to evolve? No, I don`t think so. It has happened before, and it will happen again, and again, and again: people willing to believe anything in order to get some public recognition.
All of them are implied. You see, the Congress in the US asking Mr Zuck their questions, is an amazing example. We live in a Facebook world, with all that that implies. A FACEBOOK world, where there is nobody in charge anymore. The society has changed into this facebook world nightmare, and it has been done voluntarily. All the congressmen and women have a Facebook account, every day they share what the people must see of them; every day they use it as a tool, but, surely, every day they also worried about the "likes" and the "views". They are trapped in the game.

How in the hell can humankind come into this? How can be THIS the chosen path?
I can`t answer that question, but, I`m sure, that`s a fact, sadly.
 


 

I have also been concerned about this for some time. I was sub teaching in high schools in South Florida last year, including Douglas, which was close to my home. This was about 9 months before the shooting, And for the record, the kids at Douglas High were exceptionally polite and intelligent, and subbing was a delight. I remember telling a friend how thr kids gave me hope for the future.

That day picked up the book 1984 in the teacher's lounge and read it again after many years. As it described, the mechanism of misinformation, and how easily it was to mold the minds of the public to anything that the powers that be have in mind, it was shockingly similar to the barrage of news, and information, entertainment distraction, etc.we are exposed to every day, and painfully exposing surveillance.  But you're right. It is even worse with us today because this exposure is so voulantary and self-generating. And, yes, it is up to us to use all these amazing tools wisely. Social Media gives us the opportunity to connect worldwide and exchange ideas, but mostly it is used and misused in such a discouraging way. But if anything is  giving me hope, it is just reading the thread in this group. There is consciousness and awareness here,  so not all is lost. Sure it is not the majority on btc forum, but enough to get a few ethical leaders. So thanks again for a great topic and an education and discussion that is worthwhile.  I think we do have to look out for more and more mob rule.



Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: CoinCube on May 04, 2018, 04:56:54 AM
The post below is a discussion on an entirely unrelated topic. Interestingly enough it actually intersects quite substantially with the discussion in this thread on  Polybius' cycle. I have copied it below for those interested.

1.   Do you believe God exist?  What lead you to this conclusion?

Yes I do. Here is how I reached this conclusion.

Claim #1 There are things in this universe that are True yet even cannot ever be proven True no matter how much knowledge or technology advance.

This first step has nothing to do with God but is a general statement about the possibility of truths that can never be proven and it can be derived from mathematical deduction.

Gödel’s theorem proved that any generated system capable of expressing elementary arithmetic cannot be both consistent and complete. What this means is that in any created system that determines basic arithmetical truths/answers, there is at least one statement that is true, but not provable in the system.

The universe is a non-trivial computational system. We know this from the Church-Turing thesis which tells us that physical systems can express elementary arithmetic. It is a system capable of expressing elementary arithmetic.

Thus we can conclude that the universe is incomplete.

There is at least one thing in the universe that is True but cannot ever be proven from inside the universe. Optimal understanding of the universe necessitates we develop a way of evaluating concepts that are possibly true yet forever unprovable.

We know that we can prove some truths and we know that we cannot prove all truths. Therefore we must develop a theory of truth that allows us to prove the truths we can and infer the truths we cannot.

See: The #1 Mathematical Discovery of the 20th Century (https://www.perrymarshall.com/articles/religion/godels-incompleteness-theorem/)

Claim #2 The Coherence Theory of Truth is the best known system that allows us to prove the truths we can and infer the truths we cannot.

The Coherence theory of truth provides us with a mechanism for testing both provable and unprovable truth. Coherence theory holds that a belief is true if we can incorporate it in an orderly and logical manner into a larger and complex system of beliefs or, even more simply still, a belief is true when it fits in with the set of all our other beliefs without creating a contradiction.

Coherence theory holds that a statement is true when it can be fully integrated into a group of complex ideas, the whole set of which is then tested against reality. Similarly an idea is false when it cannot be integrated into a group of complex ideas or if upon integration the set fails when tested against reality.

Another and more common word for an unprovable truth is an a priori truth.

See: The Coherence Theory of Truth (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1373864.msg35450386#msg35450386/)

Claim #3 Metaphysical truths are unprovable/assumed/a priori truths. They can only be verified with a systematic approach such as The Coherence Theory of Truth and their verification or falsification is important due to their dramatic impact on human society, human action, and human institutions.

Nihilism leads to very different conclusions then Theism. Varying conceptualizations of reality lead to varying conclusions.

All knowledge ultimately traces back to assumed axioms of this type. Without knowledge, scientific inquiry including empiric inquiry is meaningless and we can’t analyze the world around us. Choosing sound metaphysical first axioms is therefore a critical part of the formation of a sound empirical model of the universe and our place within it.

See: Metaphysical Attitudes (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1373864.msg22344436#msg22344436)

Claim #4  Human progress and civilization requires the growth of knowledge and is ultimately cooperation dependent. Our first premises and axioms directly impact the degree of cooperation that the system can support.

Ultimately progress is maximized when voluntary cooperation is maximized. Another way of saying this is that progress is maximized when superrationalality is maximized.

Superrationality (or renormalized rationality) is an alternative method of reasoning. First, it assumes that the answer to a symmetric problem will be the same for all the superrational players. This sameness is taken into account before knowing what the strategy will be.

Superrationality occurs when individuals have perfect rationality (and thus maximize their own utility) but can assume that other players are also superrational. Superrational players for example can escape Nash’s prisoner’s dilemma.

See: Superrationality and the Infinite (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1373864.msg21680790#msg21680790)

Claim #5 Defection is the fundamental challenge humanity must overcome. Without the suppression of defection we cannot solve the coordination problem. The removal of defection allows superrationality to manifest and thus maximizes cooperation.

Cooperation involves a mutually beneficial exchange that improves the well-being of both participants. Defection is an interaction that benefits one party at the expense of another. Defection always implies violence, the threat of violence, ignorance, or forced interaction.

The greatest obstacle to human progress is not a technological hurdle but the defection inherent in our nature. All forms of law and government are ultimately collective attempts to limit this defection. Instinctively we know that defection must be suppressed so we form laws and governments to do this. Government is expensive and inefficient. These inefficiencies are less costly then unrestrained individualism, however, because of pervasive human defection.

The utopia of limited to no government would only be possible for a population in which all individuals were constantly striving at all times to always be superrational. Such a utopia would require all individuals to always act cooperatively, honesty, and transparently. We lack the required moral fiber for anything like this to work at our current juncture in history. Defection ultimately can be viewed as a manifestation of evil.

See: Religion and Progress (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1373864.msg16982834#msg16982834)

Claim #6 The state is incapable of suppressing defection/evil over long time horizons.

The nation state, police, and laws suppress physical violence and obvious defection but it is composed of many individuals who inherently wish to defect. Over time the functionality of the state must inevitably fail as the habits and virtue necessary to sustain it are undermined by the defection of its citizens and leaders. When this occurs the internal integrity of the state itself fails.

Collectivism limits some avenues of defection while opening entire new possibilities. New opportunities for defection arise along the entire economic spectrum. Everything from special interest lobbying, to disability scammers, and on a larger scale our entire fiat monetary system are essentially forms of defection allowing the few to profit at the expense of the many. Nation state collectivism has allowed for the creation of great civilizations and yet it is entirely unsustainable in its current form.

This failure is not a new observation. Polybius described this about 100 years before the fall of the Roman Republic (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3341237.0). It was also well articulated by Henning Webb Prentis, Jr in the 1940's.

"The historical cycle seems to be: From bondage to spiritual faith; from spiritual faith to courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance; from abundance to selfishness; from selfishness to apathy; from apathy to dependency; and from dependency back to bondage once more." - Henning Webb Prentis, Jr

See: Faith and Future (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1373864.msg18804824#msg18804824)

Claim #7 The a priori truth of God is capable of suppressing evil and limiting defection.

Genuine belief in God especially individual belief in God coupled with a genuine fear of God’s judgement is world changing. It is a well-known empirical fact that humans are much less likely to defect if they know their behavior is being observed. This has been documented in study after study in both children and adults.  

A society where all individuals genuinely believe their actions are being observed by God and fear God’s judgement would all else being equal have much less defection then an otherwise identical society where individuals feel their actions are secret.

A society where all individuals are genuinely striving not to defect would dramatically transform the landscape of the possible. In such a society defection would be minimal and the defection that did occur would be the result of ignorance not intent. Errors of ignorance themselves would rapidly decline with time as knowledge progressed.

Proverbs 9:10
"The fear of the LORD is the beginning of wisdom"

See: The Beginning of Wisdom (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1373864.msg17722196#msg17722196)

Claim #8 God and the attendant superrationality that accompanies God is the only pathway forward that does not lead to permanent tyranny or utter ruin.

Freedom is the right of the individual to choose how he controls himself, so long as he respects the equal rights of every other individual to control and plan his own life. Freedom is thus not the ability to do whatever you want. It is self-control, and self-government, no more, no less.

Thus "freedom is self-control" leads to the conclusion that as acting individuals, we must respect the rights and boundaries of others. In other words, every individual should control his or her actions such that they do not aggress or invade against other individuals. A free society is a superrational society. It is one where all individuals are able to live their lives without being subjected to violence, the threat of violence, ignorance, or forced interaction.

Human nature is deeply flawed. That ultimately is the common theme in each stage of the cycle highlighted by Polybius and Prentis all those years ago. As human knowledge progresses we as individuals are rapidly growing ever more powerful. One man with a knife can only do so much harm one man with a bioweapons lab quite a bit more. This trend will only accelerate in the years to come.

Without a matching growth in moral behavior technological progress must inevitably lead to ever growing omnipresent state control as a logical necessity. Freedom requires self-control if the people’s self-control does not grow to match their power it is inevitable that the state will dramatically grow in a necessary attempt to control the people.

Yet as discussed above the state cannot suppress defection/evil over long time horizons. The more powerful the state becomes the greater the opportunity, temptation and profit that results from defectors corrupting the state itself. The very growth of the nation state will lead to its accelerated corruption.  

The cycle of governmental collapse highlighted by Polybius and Prentis is mostly accurate but it has three basic requirements for progression to occur.
 
1) There has to be moral corruption that those with power are susceptible too.
2) There has to be a means by which the corrupt can be overthrown.
3) There has to be survivors following the collapse who are able to continue society.

If we ever reached the stage where there was leadership without corruption the cycle would cease. If we ever reached the stage where tyranny was absolute omnipresent with no viable way to ever overthrow it the cycle would also cease. If we reach the stage where we are so powerful that government collapse leads to utter loss of control and the destruction of all human life the cycle would cease.

Unfortunately of the three possible ends to the cycle the path of freedom from corruption appears the least likely one. We are a perhaps only a single generation away from the time when technological advances will make overthrowing a tyranny nearly impossible once it is established. Whatever small hope there is of attaining a moral leadership without corruption requires we establish both a leadership and a population that is superrational. This in turn requires God.

Our forefathers understood that it is morality, virtue and ultimately God that allows for freedom. It is a lesson many of their descendants have forgotten.

"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." - Benjamin Franklin

“Is there no virtue among us? If there be not, we are in a wretched situation. No theoretical checks, no form of government, can render us secure. To suppose that any form of government will secure liberty or happiness without any virtue in the people, is a chimerical idea. If there be sufficient virtue and intelligence in the community, it will be exercised in the selection of these men; so that we do not depend upon their virtue, or put confidence in our rulers, but in the people who are to choose them.” - James Madison

“Of all the dispositions and habits which lead to political prosperity, religion and morality are indispensable supports.” - George Washington

See: Freedom and God (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1373864.msg17319684#msg17319684)

Claim #9 Ultimately the a priori claim of God requires genuine faith in God or it is hypocritical.

To accept something a priori means to accept it on faith axiomatically and without doubt. The Christian Pastor, the Jewish Rabbi, and the Islamic Imam are ultimately correct.

You have to believe. That is the only viable pathway forward for humanity. That is my view having thought about this issue for a very long time.

A worldview that leads only to extinction or permanent tyranny is not one I am interested in entertaining. I define any such worldview as evil as false.

God is the very narrow very difficult road that leads to life.

I believe in the a priori truth of God. I have faith in God.

Now you know why.


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: NadiaHel on May 14, 2018, 04:50:28 PM
<...>


I`m sorry, I can`t agree with that in any way.
The fear of God, under my perspective, is one of the biggest problems in humanity right now. To believe that something is controlled by a divine-force, including your life, your desitions, and than everything can be forgive at your last moment...

Let`s talk about how religion is seeking mind-control. When human kind appeared in the face of the earth (more than 150.000 years ago) there where some common beliefs, as something magic related to rain, life itself and so. In the prehistoric art before the first cities in the world it is virtually impossible to find any scene of people fighting other people, but people hunting animals and such. I`m talking about a period in history in which there where few humans, small groups of them, walking in the earth, nomads seeking their haunt and in a total balance with the nature. Then, possibly due to a climate change, the humankind begun to build cities. Soon in the ancient cave-art they begun to paint human vs human fights, grupal rituals and such. It happends arround the 9.000 B.C. (notice how huge period it is). So, when humans come togheter, there is war, bounderies problems and, the most important of all, unequal distribution. Now we have specialists in so many areas: we have agriculture from the first time, walled cities to protect their reserves, war, and religioust specialist to convince people to work. Yes. To convince them. Since the very beggining, fearing a god means too many things:
1.- There are a few knowing (and somehow having) the world of God in them. So they get to have a privileged status and to dictate the norms, because they are the chosen ones. If you make the people to believe that, then they will live forever under the fear and they will believe whatever you want them to believe.
2.- Governments were chosen, as well. So your succeed in life is not longer related to your abbilities, but the kind of blood you have in your veins.
3.- The first tyrant government appeared based on religion status. Only by the fear of something supernatural you can have all this power. Just read the Old Testament.
4.- The legitimacy of unfair power. By explaining everything that can`t be controlled by human kind under the supernatural explanation, and by giving all the possible communication between those supernatural forces and humanbeings to a few, you can make anything legit.
Why the rain is destroying everything? Because you don`t give enough money to church. Why my son is dying? Because you are a siner. How can we stop this to happen? By maintaining a church, a monument, a faraon, a cesar...

 


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: CoinCube on May 14, 2018, 07:43:49 PM

I`m sorry, I can`t agree with that in any way.
The fear of God, under my perspective, is one of the biggest problems in humanity right now. To believe that something is controlled by a divine-force, including your life, your desitions, and than everything can be forgive at your last moment...

Let`s talk about how religion is seeking mind-control. When human kind appeared in the face of the earth (more than 150.000 years ago) there where some common beliefs, as something magic related to rain, life itself and so. In the prehistoric art before the first cities in the world it is virtually impossible to find any scene of people fighting other people, but people hunting animals and such. I`m talking about a period in history in which there where few humans, small groups of them, walking in the earth, nomads seeking their haunt and in a total balance with the nature. Then, possibly due to a climate change, the humankind begun to build cities. Soon in the ancient cave-art they begun to paint human vs human fights, grupal rituals and such. It happends arround the 9.000 B.C. (notice how huge period it is).

If you want to look for a time when humans were in equilibrium with the environment you have to go back much farther then 9,000 year ago. You probably have to go back at least 50,000 years. That appears to be when the human species breached our equilibrium with nature. This period has been described as the Great Leap Forward. It was a fundamental technological, social or evolutionary leap that allowed humanity to break the prior constraints which had kept its population small and limited to Africa.

http://blog.23andme.com/news/the-first-population-explosion-human-numbers-expanded-dramatically-millennia-before-agriculture/
Quote
The authors found genetic evidence for a surge in human population size about 40,000 to 50,000 years ago. This period, just after humans first set foot outside Africa, is of great interest to archaeologists because it coincides with a dramatic increase in the sophistication of human behavior. People began crafting tools from bone, burying their dead and fashioning clothing to keep themselves warm in cool climates. They developed complex hunting techniques, and created great works of art in the form of cave paintings and jewelery.

The archaeological record also shows that during this time, humans began hunting more dangerous prey and more easily exploiting small game like rabbits and birds. They traveled farther than they had before, perhaps due to the growth of long-distance trade routes – the first of their kind. Jared Diamond, author of The Third Chimpanzee, calls this period “The Great Leap Forward,” when humans burst forth culturally – finally separating themselves from their evolutionary cousins.
The exact cause for these changes in human behavior may never be known. Some believe a simple genetic mutation or that the evolution of language could have sparked such a dramatic change. But what we do know now, thanks to this new genetic research, is that like the (much later) invention of agriculture this explosion of innovation was accompanied by population growth.

A primitive mankind was in a natural competitive equilibrium with nature. We breached this equilibrium with knowledge. Sometime around 50,000 years ago our ancient ancestors acquired the knowledge needed to explosively overcome the constraints that had previously kept our numbers and progress in check. We ceased living as a part of nature and began to dominate it. This breakthrough led to the spread of humanity throughout the world.

It may also have started a countdown to our extinction. Having acquired enough knowledge to breach environmental equilibrium we are now compelled to acquire sufficient knowledge to reestablish some kind of new equilibrium at a higher level. The development of agriculture was likely inevitable. Once a species develops culture and that culture can retain new knowledge and transmit it further development is inevitable.

It was the advance in knowledge that opened areas previously closed to humanity. It opened the entire world to our domination. At the very beginning in world empty of humanity with newly opened lands just over the next hill there would have been less violence. As the population inevitability grew to fill these lands, however, mans new mastery of the world would have made fellow men rather then the environment the greatest thread to his survival. Thus organized armies and war. Indeed there are reasons to believe war played a larger role then agriculture in spawning large and complex societies.

DATA GEEKS SAY WAR, NOT AGRICULTURE, SPAWNED COMPLEX SOCIETIES
https://www.wired.com/2013/09/cliodynamics-war/
  


So, when humans come togheter, there is war, bounderies problems and, the most important of all, unequal distribution. Now we have specialists in so many areas: we have agriculture from the first time, walled cities to protect their reserves, war, and religioust specialist to convince people to work. Yes. To convince them. Since the very beggining, fearing a god means too many things:
1.- There are a few knowing (and somehow having) the world of God in them. So they get to have a privileged status and to dictate the norms, because they are the chosen ones. If you make the people to believe that, then they will live forever under the fear and they will believe whatever you want them to believe.
2.- Governments were chosen, as well. So your succeed in life is not longer related to your abbilities, but the kind of blood you have in your veins.
3.- The first tyrant government appeared based on religion status. Only by the fear of something supernatural you can have all this power. Just read the Old Testament.
4.- The legitimacy of unfair power. By explaining everything that can`t be controlled by human kind under the supernatural explanation, and by giving all the possible communication between those supernatural forces and humanbeings to a few, you can make anything legit.
Why the rain is destroying everything? Because you don`t give enough money to church. Why my son is dying? Because you are a siner. How can we stop this to happen? By maintaining a church, a monument, a faraon, a cesar...
 

You are saying that religion was and is used as a tool of control and oppression. This is true. It is fact that many ancient societies and their "gods" were used as systems of oppression to justify the rule of the powerful. If you don't understand that you don't understand history. Here is another article that highlights this well.

The ‘darker link’ between ancient human sacrifice and our modern world
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/04/05/the-darker-link-between-ancient-human-sacrifice-and-our-modern-world/?utm_term=.ad86596e364a

There are only two ways to build and sustain a large and complex society. The first is oppression and slavery. The second and far harder path is to build a free society.

Religion and Progress

The greatest obstacle to human progress is not a technological hurdle but the evil inherent in ourselves. Humans have knowledge of good and evil and with this knowledge we often choose evil.

Collectivism exists because it employs aggregated force to limit evil especially the forms of evil linked to physical violence. Collectivism is expensive and inefficient but these inefficiencies are less than the cost of unrestrained individualism. Collectivism aggregates capital for the common good and we are far from outgrowing our need for this.

1.   Prehistory required the aggregation of human capital in the form of young warriors willing to fight to protect the tribe.
2.   The Agricultural Age required physical capital in the form of land ownership and a State to protect the land.
3.   The Industrial Age required the aggregation of monetary capital to fund large fixed capital investments and factories.

A farmer in the agricultural age could achieve some protection from theft and violence by arming himself. He could protect himself against a small hostile groups by forming defensive pacts with neighboring farmers. To defend against large scale organized violence, however, requires an army and thus a state.

In 1651 Thomas Hobbes argued for the merits of centralized monarchy. He believed that only absolute monarchy was capable of suppressing the evils of an unrestrained humanity. He described in graphic wording the consequences of a world without monarchy a condition he called the state of nature.

Quote
In such condition, there is no place for industry; because the fruit thereof is uncertain: and consequently no culture of the earth; no navigation, nor use of the commodities that may be imported by sea; no commodious building; no instruments of moving, and removing, such things as require much force; no knowledge of the face of the earth; no account of time; no arts; no letters; no society; and which is worst of all, continual fear, and danger of violent death; and the life of man, solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short. - Thomas Hobbes Leviathan

There may well have been a time in human history when the absolute monarchy of Hobbes was the best available government but Hobbes was writing at the end of that era. England had been transformed from a nation almost completely conquered by the Odin worshiping Great Heathen Army (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Heathen_Army) of 865 to a country that protected the legal rights of nobles in the Magna Carta of 1215 to a devoutly Christian nation that formalized the rights of judicial review for common citizens in the 1679 Habeas Corpus act. Hobbes had failed to appreciate the growth of moral capital that allowed for superior forms of government with increased freedom.


The Beginning of Wisdom

Top-down control fulfills its mandate when it maximizes cooperation and minimizes defection. Top-down control also uses fear, violence, and forced interaction. Top-down control is thus only morally justified if the use of those things results in an overall increase in cooperation and a reduction in defection.

The amount of top-down control required to maximize cooperation is proportional to the amount of defection prevalent in the population as well as the capability of individual defectors to do harm. Humans are morally flawed resulting in recurrent excessive concentrations of power and a general refusal to cede power. The recent human condition has been notable for the gradual progression of moral progress with either no accompanying change in top-down control or a counter intuitive increase in top-down control. When this happens the top-down control itself limits cooperation and becomes a form of defection. The situation is like a pressure cooker that eventually explodes in a rebellion resetting the top-down control to more appropriate levels.  

Defection and rebellion are thus entirely separate phenomenon. The first is evil and always morally unjustifiable. The second is not only just but a moral obligation once a superior solution to top-down failure becomes available.

Decentralization paradigms are useful and necessary when resetting top-down control to more appropriate levels. However, decentralization paradigms must always be accompanied by a top-down control that maximizes cooperation alongside the decentralization paradigm.

The reality is we will always need top-down control. This may be a bitter pill to swallow for an anarchist. The need for top-down control does not go away just because we don't like it or don't want to think about it.

Religion is also top-down control, but that statement is meaningless without context. We both need top-down control and will always need top-down control. Thus ultimately the relevant question is what kind of top-down control is religion.

That answer of course varies depending on the religion we are talking about. The primitive idols worshiping pagans had horrific gods. These religions were tools of extreme top-down oppression and their extinction is welcome. See: Pagans and Human Sacrifice (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1566146.msg17457910#msg17457910).

However, belief in God especially individual belief in God coupled with a fear of God is something else entirely. A society where all individuals genuinely believed in and feared God would have very little defection. What defection did occur would be the result of ignorance not malice and even that would decline with time as knowledge progressed. An individual restrained only by a genuine belief and fear of God has complete operational autonomy he would willing choose only cooperation and never defection limited only by his knowledge of what actions constituted genuine cooperation.

Belief in God is top-down control. It is the purest manifestation of such control enabling a maximization of freedom. Rejecting God leads ultimately to higher levels of defection and consequentially less freedom.


Title: Re: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government
Post by: CoinCube on May 20, 2018, 08:46:27 PM
Thousands In Sweden Have Implanted Microchips Under Their Skin

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-18/biohack-thousands-sweden-have-implanted-microchips-under-their-skin
Quote
More than 3,000 people in Sweden have implanted tiny microchips beneath their skin to replace their credit card information, identification, keys, train tickets, among other everyday items, Agence France-Press announced Sunday.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Screen-Shot-2018-05-16-at-1.49.18-PM.png?itok=O8GjmYau

The implant, which is about the size of a grain of rice, utilizes Near Field Communication (NFC) technology, also found in credit cards, debit cards, key fobs, and smartphones. This technology is considered “passive,” which means the microchip stores data that can be read by other devices but cannot read data themselves.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Screen-Shot-2018-05-16-at-1.59.23-PM-768x798_0.png?itok=mdkptbPz

This might resemble an Orwellian nightmare to many, but in Sweden, residents are flocking to get these implanted microchips by “convenience over concerns of potential personal data violations,” AFP explained.

Governments in Europe quietly experimented with embedding the small chip in humans in 2015 in Sweden, and several other countries in the region, before the recent rollout.

“Swedes have gone on to be very active in microchipping, with scant debate about issues surrounding its use, in a country keen on new technology and where the sharing of personal information is held up as a sign of a transparent society,” AFP notes.



Ulrika Celsing is one of 3,000 Swedes with a microchip implanted in her hand — a process called “biohacking.” The 28-year-old told AFP, “It was fun to try something new and to see what one could use it for to make life easier in the future.”

Celsing explained that the microchip has turned into an “electronic handbag” and has even replaced her gym card.

She can even book a train ticket online, and then use her hand like a ticket to board a train.

While the tiny microchips can store personal data that can be extracted by other devices, they are considered passive — which means the chip cannot read data themselves. Meanwhile, some still have concerns that the progression of this technology could jeopardize personal security.

“I don’t think our current technology is enough to get chip hacked,” Celsing told AFP. “But I may think about this again in the future. I could always take it out then.”

” Sweden has a track record on the sharing of personal information, which may have helped ease the microchip’s acceptance among the Nordic country’s 10 million-strong population. Citizens have long accepted the sharing of their personal details, registered by the social security system, with other administrative bodies, while people can find out each others’ salaries through a quick phone call to the tax authority,” AFP said

There are still serious privacy and security concerns associated with biohacking Swedes. Regarding privacy, corporations will have unprecedented access to personal data of consumers and or employees.

In the fast-approaching dystopic future, corporations and government could soon be collecting private data on their citizens via implanted microchips...

What could go wrong?…