Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Economics => Topic started by: pinnpe on November 19, 2013, 01:45:46 PM



Title: 1 Bitcoin $1 Million thought experiment
Post by: pinnpe on November 19, 2013, 01:45:46 PM
Let's say that all Bitcoin exchanges unanimously decided today to ask $1 Million for 1 Bitcoin and kept that price
for 10 years, what would happen then?

- Bitcoin would have a market cap of $ 12 Trillion overnight, certainly an amount to be taken serious
- If it stays $1 Million and it's guaranteed it will stay there, talks about volatility would totally dissapear
- If it has a fixed price more merchants will start excepting it
- People would still be able to purchase micro Bitcoins
- MAYBE WE'LL GET AN INSANE NEWS COVERAGE, THAT WILL REACH THE ENTIRE PLANET (PURELY
DUE TO THE INSANITY OF A ECONOMY GOING FROM A MARKET CAP OF $4 BILLION TO $12 TRILLION
OVERNIGHT)

Ofcourse the exchanges would keep their sanity, by having an exchange of Bitcoin to fiat limit of $10 Million per
annum. The exchanges who don't got that money simply exchange what they can.

- This would hurt nobody (except the banks) and actually FORCE people not to PANIC SELL.

I don't think there is a law that's stopping exchanges to do this. It would seem like price rigging, but is that not done
constantly without us even knowing? If the price would standstill, would it not also stop the speculation? Bitcoin is a
solid system as we all agree, what if it had a fixed price? Please tell me what I have failed to mention in this TE.


Title: Re: 1 Bitcoin $1 Million thought experiment
Post by: derekleong75 on November 19, 2013, 01:52:21 PM
You live in a fantasy world, my friend.


Title: Re: 1 Bitcoin $1 Million thought experiment
Post by: Boxman90 on November 19, 2013, 02:19:33 PM
Gosh and I suppose nobody would just transfer some BTC person to person and receive cash in return  ???

Maybe I misread somewhere the P2P part of BTC...


Title: Re: 1 Bitcoin $1 Million thought experiment
Post by: MicroGuy on November 19, 2013, 02:21:11 PM
https://www.gldtalk.org/devteam/bubble.png

Let's say that all Bitcoin exchanges unanimously decided today to ask $1 Million for 1 Bitcoin and kept that price
for 10 years, what would happen then?

The exchanges would go belly up and private transactions would be used for trading.


Title: Re: 1 Bitcoin $1 Million thought experiment
Post by: bitmarket.io on November 19, 2013, 02:28:21 PM
Quote
- MAYBE WE'LL GET AN INSANE NEWS COVERAGE, THAT WILL REACH THE ENTIRE PLANET (PURELY
DUE TO THE INSANITY OF A ECONOMY GOING FROM A MARKET CAP OF $4 BILLION TO $12 TRILLION
OVERNIGHT)

MAYBE I'll hit the jackpot this evening??


Title: Re: 1 Bitcoin $1 Million thought experiment
Post by: pinnpe on November 19, 2013, 02:30:27 PM
@ derekleong75
Are our lives not FANTASTIC because others play thought experiments with us?
From money, houses, energy, to gas prices.... The list goes on and on

Are you maybe afraid that somebody would say that this concept is crazy? I'm not
affraid to be called crazy... Maybe you are looking at a pixel, while I'm looking at the whole
picture. People looking at a pixel tend to say "IMPOSSIBLE", when you say "LETS TRY IT"
you might be suprised.

Btw everything about money is an agreement. Something I think about things with an child's
mind. As adults would Bitcoin not be considered a fantasy world currency? It went from $1,
to $900? Within a timespan of 2 years.

Thanks for your feedback buddy


Title: Re: 1 Bitcoin $1 Million thought experiment
Post by: bitmarket.io on November 19, 2013, 02:36:03 PM
Where are you from? I'm curious.

What thought experiments?  The worst kind of lie is the one you tell yourself.

Quote
Btw everything about money is an agreement. Something I think about things with an child's
mind. As adults would Bitcoin not be considered a fantasy world currency? It went from $1,
to $900?


We are computer people. We are global. Live on the internet. Things move way faster here. And we're tech savvy and young.  We are magic compared to the old people.

The young tech elites are the vanguard of all technological innovation and give rise to economies.

For the internet people like us, we have no countries or borders. A global economy instead, leveraging a new type of money based on the principles of cryptography to make it work.  Ergo BTC and LTC and all the other alts.

It's growing because people are excited about it.  Lots of PR.  And everyone's throwing money into it as they see it grow, hoping to strike gold. :)


Title: Re: 1 Bitcoin $1 Million thought experiment
Post by: pinnpe on November 19, 2013, 02:44:25 PM
Gosh and I suppose nobody would just transfer some BTC person to person and receive cash in return  Huh
Maybe I misread somewhere the P2P part of BTC...
_ Ofcourse this would still be possible, but the exchanges would have a limit

The exchanges would go belly up and private transactions would be used for trading.
_I don't think all the exchanges would go belly up, only the little ones. If multinationals would want to send
money they could use Mtgox or BTC China.

hoping to strike gold
Is gold not a relic from the past, that is hardly used, by ordinairy people?


Title: Re: 1 Bitcoin $1 Million thought experiment
Post by: bitmarket.io on November 19, 2013, 02:47:34 PM
hoping to strike gold
Is gold not a relic from the past, that is hardly used, by ordinairy people?

It's a metaphor


Title: Re: 1 Bitcoin $1 Million thought experiment
Post by: pinnpe on November 19, 2013, 02:59:09 PM
The concept of a fixed price is not new... fiat currency used to be fixed untill they decided
to tie it to a speculative economy.

Maybe you should take a look @
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFDe5kUUyT0

to see how funny money is


Title: Re: 1 Bitcoin $1 Million thought experiment
Post by: AndrewWilliams on November 19, 2013, 04:27:05 PM
Good luck cashing it out, LOL


Title: Re: 1 Bitcoin $1 Million thought experiment
Post by: porcupine87 on November 19, 2013, 05:32:12 PM
Let's say that all Bitcoin exchanges unanimously decided today to ask $1 Million for 1 Bitcoin and kept that price
for 10 years, what would happen then?

- Bitcoin would have a market cap of $ 12 Trillion overnight, certainly an amount to be taken serious

Yes and I sell my puppy for 1200000 trillion $ and no media would talk about bitcoin but about my puppy. Suck on it!


Title: Re: 1 Bitcoin $1 Million thought experiment
Post by: greenlion on November 19, 2013, 06:11:24 PM
Let's say that all Bitcoin exchanges unanimously decided today to ask $1 Million for 1 Bitcoin and kept that price
for 10 years, what would happen then?

The same thing that always happens to any price-fixing cabal. A participant will unilaterally lower the price to screw everyone else and control the market, or new enchanges will pop up not adhering to this ridiculous premise.


Title: Re: 1 Bitcoin $1 Million thought experiment
Post by: AnonyMint on November 20, 2013, 09:39:05 AM
You have no idea what $1 million/BTC means.

An alternative link where I summarized why bitcoin is a ponzi scheme and the reason the 21 million coin limit makes it unarguably so:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=339876.msg3649398#msg3649398


Title: Re: 1 Bitcoin $1 Million thought experiment
Post by: JustHayden on November 20, 2013, 12:08:27 PM
I like to think of the future of BTC as the first global currency. Sort of like futuristic movies where the currency is "credits", but in our future it's bitcoin and litecoin. It would definitely hurt the banks and insurance companies, but it would give our economy a BIG boost and change the world of economics as we know it. Imagine how easy it would be to get funding for science? Bitcoin reaching $1million could cure deceases, give us better education, and a way better space program than we have now (I'd personally fund that). Everyday people who own 1BTC now would become millionaires. Even those with 0.005 BTC would be rich.

$1million/BTC would be a very VERY good thing for us. But it has to gradually get there...   


Title: Re: 1 Bitcoin $1 Million thought experiment
Post by: pinnpe on November 20, 2013, 04:58:37 PM
Honestly I only see two options
Investor (Up&Down price) vs Merchants (Fixed price)
Investors love Bitcoins because it might be the big deal 1 day, with the up&down prices they can make a profit also.
How much money did they invest in Bitcoins? Let's say they all pumped in $100 Million, that an reasonable amount
the thing about investors is that they like to get other investors involved and blow prices up, this can be good, but I
don't think it's an save enviroment for Bitcoins. Believe me investors are more dangerous for Bitcoins then users of the
so called notorious SilkRoad 2.0. SR users are actually using the currency, eventually that's the purpose of it.

Merchants.... now this is what Bitcoin really needs. Merchants are the building blocks of society and influence users
their options of payment. Some merchants are even so brave that they will only use 1 payment method, because they want
to say Credit card companies (FUCK YOU) Let's say that I'm a merchant and I want to use Bitcoins, actually what is important
to me beside low transaction costs is certainty of a currency. If I sell a product of $900 today and tomorrow my 1 Bitcoin is
worth $600 it might become a problem. Let's say I want to buy stock because I'm running low on merchandise, do I
wait? how long do I have to wait, untill I get the $300 to get my supply? How do I report this to the taxman, I sold it
for $900, but I got $600 to report because the price dropped. If 1 week later the price is suddenly $1200, what do I do?
This is obviously a nightmare, because with some exchanges you can't get your money back timely and a next day
payout is also not a safety mechanism.

Fixed price
With an fixed price we will loose some of the investors, but it's not a bad thing, they only wanted a quick buck and
never cared about Bitcoins. A stable currency is all merchants want, some companies don't even do business in
some countries simply because of their unstable currencies. With a fixed price Bitcoin will also become BORING, thats
what you want because it will actually be used and no longer hoarded. If you tell everybody who has a Bitcoin today,
from now on 1 Bitcoin will only be worth $ 1000 (or whatever funprice you would rather see) and that is the final price.
They will only have 2 options, sell or keeping using their Bitcoins. All they talk about is the rollercoaster ride that
Bitcoin is taking with it's prices, ordinary people don't understand the crypto part. I would even argue that with a fixed
price we can focus on the future of Bitcoins, people will have a hardtime accepting it, with it's up&down prices, not
everyone is a gambler.

The future of Bitcoins
As long as the price of Bitcoin is an topic, we are loosing. We need:
- Instant payment (Zipconf style)
- A Quantum-safe algorithm
- Does Bitcoin maybe need scrypt
- Have fun and support http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/bitcoin-dark-wallet

AnonyMint
what $1 Million/BTC means: A market cap of $12 Trillion, Not waiting for 10 years, Setting 1 price for Bitcoins, Letting people totally loose their FUCKING minds because suddenly they are rich (They would become an army of Bitcoin promoters and say Bitcoin, Bitcoins, Bitcoins during their whole interview about investing) Finally JustHayden would become the king of Bitcoins...
That ponzi scheme talk, the software is opensource


Title: Re: 1 Bitcoin $1 Million thought experiment
Post by: BitchicksHusband on November 21, 2013, 01:22:13 AM
I would sell 1 bitcoin?  And then wait 10 years to get my money out of Mt. Gox?!?


Title: Re: 1 Bitcoin $1 Million thought experiment
Post by: Mondy on November 21, 2013, 04:56:02 AM
Highly unsustainable and unlikely! But its always good to imagine!