Bitcoin Forum

I don't know if Coin Validation (http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2013/11/13/sanitizing-bitcoin-coin-validation/) was mentioned on this thread. Mike Melon is a $4.5 billionaire.

Any way, I think Bitcoin is fucked because we don't have any anonymity any way, and everyone who profits on Bitcoin is going to jail. Read my posts at the following thread to entertain my logic. Yeah it sounds ludicrous, but read and ye shall be rewarded with new insight and truth:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=323988.msg3625475#msg3625475

If you can't see the big picture, you are going to be honeypotted (bitCON is their honeypot) right into their dragnet. In other posts, I have detailed technically why you don't have anonymity even if you use a coin mixer, Tor, and a VPN. I have also detailed how the government can take over mining via the Transactions Withholding Attack. No one has been able refute my technical arguments.

Read the thread I linked to, and then you will know.

Hint: $1 trillion in investor wealth will go poof, and Bernie Madoff only took $billions. Public will demand clawbacks and jail time.

And this BS about the USA has no control in China and the rest of the world... well if you like fairytales just go ahead on your blissful way to prison...

I'm certainly not stopping you all from it enjoying your greed for a few months before you learn the lesson the hard way.

And I am not a goldbug! So don't think I am trying to get you to leave BitCON for gold and silver.

Here I refuted all the goldbugs (they are such math retards):

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=222998.msg3615848#msg3615848

Okay smarty pants. Don't read the detailed thread. And continue to believe that. You obviously have not studied world history very well.

The law won't help you, because it can be changed to anything the angry public wants as they are manipulated by the economic implosion coming (both to general global economy and ponzi failure of BitCON) and the mass media which is controlled by the powers-that-be.

You haven't studied how situations like the current global sovereign debt crisis (e.g. 550% total debt-to-GDP ratio in the UK, and 300+% for every major country, including USA, China, Japan, etc) resolve historically in a Dark Age, because the public demands the government to go bezerk and hunt down all wealth. Law won't mean shit.

Not read and studied very well apparently.

You are highly ignorant.

And ignorant people don't realize they are ignorant.

I already detailed technically how the government can take over. And if you doubt my logic, it is because you don't have the technical capacity to understand, even though you think you do.

This is known as the Dunning-Kruger effect (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning-Kruger_effect)

I already enlightened in my numerous posts. You can refer to them by clicking my name. I am not going to repeat again or spoon feed it for you. Do some research if you want. Or don't. It is your life to lose, not mine.

Don't ask me to do more work for you. I am done. Readers can be lazy if they want to.

re-read this post, I added to it just for you:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=333824.msg3633339#msg3633339

You are a good sheep, well fed, and entirely asleep. Soon to be harvested.

I am being nice. Trying to save you from what is going to be very mean. But you don't want to be saved, so go ahead and when the government puts you in jail for profiting on a ponzi scheme and bankrupting the public with $1 trillion stolen from the public, don't come whining to me. I tried to tell you, but you don't believe it. So go ahead, and then you will find out.

Since it is decentralized, they can't put the ring leader in jail. Thus you are one of the ring leaders, by profiting on it and encouraging others to join it.

the argument you're making: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slippery_slope

And that demonstrates your weak logic skills.

Trying to save you and others, doesn't require me to conquer your ignorance and misconceptions. I put the seed out there. That is up to you to nurture and accomplish, and doing research may be the only way to dislodge your mind from where it currently is.

Essentially that is correct in a general way. But I went into great detail in my posts, over the past 2 weeks especially. And I really want to stop now.

Read everything Martin Armstrong has written on his blogs over the past year:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog/

Analyze it all in detail, but not just one-by-one, read a few months worth, then start analyzing after you have a big picture how it all fits together.

Ignore his spelling errors. The man is a genuis. He managed the largest hedge fund ever at $3 trillion. That is not a misprint, nor a joke.

He managed the largest hedge fund ever at $3 trillion. That is not a misprint, nor a joke.

You are so sure of so many things.

I did not request, you did. You asked me where you should research. Clearly you've been paid to come here and obfuscate the discussion. I know the elite are sending their gatekeepers here. Deny it all you want. I am very familiar with the pattern. Tell your boss to kiss my ass.

I will not reply to you again.

Here is some nonsense from him which I refuted as part of my argument of why BitCON is a ponzi scheme and those who profit on it will go to jail. You managed to hide that post of mine 2 pages upthread with all your disingenuous, nonsense tit-for-tat.

Any way, let's explore your illogic below...


You are saying buying low and selling high is not investing for value. Any way, that is not as goofy as what you wrote below...


Now let me quote from the reasons BitCON is a ponzi scheme:


BitCON investors are expecting exponential gains, not a stabilized value. Talk about contradictions.

Your logic is incredibly non-existent.

It is clear from your very first posts that you joined a few days ago to come pump up BitCON.

Who is paying you?

And they are wasting their money. You are not very good at it.

Guess you don't have sufficient intellect then. Other readers can see very easily how that follows from what you wrote.


All are expecting exponential gains.

Btw even 1% per year is an exponential gain. I know your knowledge of math is weak, so I figured I better point that out.

1.01 ^ 28 years = 1.32 not 1.28

Again you demonstrate your ignorance of math.

A gain of specific number of BTC every year is not exponential gain and is actually monotonically decelerating. A percentage gain is "exponential" with constant velocity and no acceleration.

It not contradictory because no one is expecting to keep owning huge amount of BTC once the value is stabilized, i.e. stop growing as you claimed it could. They will move into new investments that can grow.

Most people that own BTC, own 10 to million times more than they would keep in a checking account. When it stops growing in value, they will reduce to what they would keep for spending, and invest the lion's share in something that can grow.

Thus BitCON is a ponzi scheme and will implode to 1/10 to 1/millionth of its peak price.

So don't tell me that my thread is baseless. Your intellectual capacity is incapable of understanding.

Readers, I linked to my thread about 3 pages back in this thread, before anth0ny cluttered this thread with 3 pages of nonsense tit-for-tat.

AnonyMint:

You need to organize your argument into one place that is clear and concise, and avoid the logical fallacies you seem to resort to when trying to get your point across to people who don't understand you. If the average person can't understand your train of thought, your efforts are futile.

I feel like you think we are all jumping aboard a train that everyone reasons(perhaps falsely) is going to a better place while you're yelling from the side of the tracks with a bull horn saying its really going to crash. If you are right, you're doing everyone a disservice by trying to solve the problem this way. To them you seem like some crazed doomsayer there to steal their dreams.

If you are really convinced that you are right, arguing with people on this forum will get you nowhere. Make some videos like this guy did http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgo7FCCPuylVk4luP3JAgVw/videos (http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgo7FCCPuylVk4luP3JAgVw/videos) that are clear, concise and everyone can follow. If people can understand them, the arguments are valid and you can sway them, it will spread further and you will make much more of an impact.

Right now my initial gut feeling upon digging through your old posts is that you're a conspiracy theorist suffering from conformation bias.

Prove me wrong.

I quoted you upthread writing it would "stabilize".


Even if that were true, which I think is incredulously ignorant to assume, the current investors are not going to be satisfied 1 - 3% growth per year. They are not investing in savings account. They will move their funds to a better investment.

Therefor, it will crash in value. And no one wants to hold something that is crashing.



It is not held by everyone on earth. The average holding in Bitcoin is about $10,000 rough guesstimate (and for them the average will be $100,000 if BitCON increases another 10X). They won't gift it to the other 7 billion people. They will exit and invest in something that can grow, once there are no more fools to bring money into the ponzi BitCON.


Wow your IQ must be about 105.

Don't you see you just supported my argument with what you wrote above? You are claiming they want to hold some because it is rare, which means they expect it to go up in value.

Sorry man, I am not going to waste more of my time on an idiot.


Your 105 IQ opinion should be ignored by everyone.

I have no desire to prove anything. Go on.

In summary I'm just saying, wouldn't your effort be better spend formulating a more effective way to reach people? This back and forth arguing and the way you attack others arguments will lead to many people ignoring the point it seems you're trying to get across, however valid it may be.

You don't understand math of exponential growth.

How exactly are you going to distribute it that widely fast enough when the gains slow down and the big holders want to exit pronto, not over a period of years to decades to exit.

Once a few exit pronto, the price starts crashing, because the float is tiny compared to the market cap.

Then they stampede to the exits.

No investment in the history of the world can behave as you have assumed. It is mathematically impossible.

The only way would be if the government confiscated it and redistributed it by decree into every bank account.


hahaha. Well now you've blown your credibility to smithereens.

Agreed. And the best way is with an altcoin, not talking. Code and something better to buy speaks louder than words.

Doesn't help at all for several reasons. For one thing, you are only as anonymous as the others who use it with you, because once they reveal their identities, then you can be isolated. The probability of you being found increases over time, as more and more downstream trail on the public ledger reveals more and more identities.

BitCON just can't be made anonymous. The only way is to build in the anonymity into the protocol of the coin.

I wasn't suggesting the ponzi crash to near 0 will come soon. The market cap will probably move into the $trillions first.

There is probably not any benefit to selling if you intend to buy back in after a dip. See this chart:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.msg3627236#msg3627236

I am not trying to talk people into selling now. I am trying to talk them into never buying, and if they already profited, to work out a plan for avoiding the jail time when the ponzi implodes 2016ish and the governments come hunting down all those who profited at the expense of all those who lost everything.

Right now BitCON is not larger than some large cap stocks. When it is 100 times the largest stock and it collapses, then a huge proportion of the population of investors are going to be harmed.

And it won't go to 1/10 of it's value, it will go to near 0 in relative terms, perhaps 1/1000000 or so of peak price.


Why would I care? You are free to be ignorant. I have no incentive to try to stop you.

http://www.patrickpretty.com/2013/07/30/gary-calhoun-mpb-today-mlm-operator-jailed-in-florida/

http://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/david-ross-dished-record-jail-014100479.html

http://www.ponziclawbacks.com/2013/10/18/infomercial-kingpin-off-to-jail/

http://euronomist.blogspot.com/2013/07/ponzi-games-pyramid-schemes-and-mlms.html

http://amlmskeptic.blogspot.com/2013/07/ponzi-liar-gets-jail-sentenced-doubled.html

http://www.clarkhoward.com/news/clark-howard/scams-rip-offs/huge-returns-secret-formulas-are-hallmarks-ponzi-s/nPbzm/

http://kschang.hubpages.com/hub/How-Pyramid-Schemes-and-Ponzi-Schemes-are-Prosecuted-in-the-US

http://www.mlmwatchdog.com/internet_pyramid_ponzi_law.html

Who of you have not been profiting from and promoting this BitCON ponzi scheme?

Are you going to argue "Satoshi" made you do it?

The old ladies and masses will come into BitCON last. They will buy in size, because it will be a mass mania. It is very clear it is a mania already and the market cap is only $10 billion. When it hits $1 trillion market cap, everyone and their half-uncle will have BitCON fever.

Like any such phenomenon, the later investors outnumber the early ones by orders-of-magnitude.

Then by the logic I explained upthread, it will collapse because there are no new investors to buy in at a fast enough rate to maintain the rate of price growth the early investors expect. So they will exit, but only a miniscule percent will make it out before it collapses.

The stampede will ensue, then after the dust settles, the old ladies and masses will be wiped out. And not just a few of them as with a company stock collapse, but the entire globe.

So either you will be wiped out by the collapse, or you will be a marked man for having profited while most where destroyed.

So there is the perfect opportunity for the government to step in and require everyone to provide their identity and then clawback the ill-gotten gains who have destroyed the world. And not just the USA, but global cooperation, because people will be wiped out in every country. So there is your NWO. You all are handing it to the elite on a silver platter.

I mean what are you people thinking? You are not thinking, because your pre-frontal cortex has been shutdown by the greed fever.

This is exactly how we get to NWO and 666.

And there is no possible logic you can present of how there can be any other outcome.

Just read the upthread discussion. BitCON's highly concentrated distribution prevents any other outcome.

A gain of specific number of BTC every year is not exponential gain and is actually monotonically decelerating. A percentage gain is "exponential" with constant velocity and no acceleration.

0   1   50.00   2009   0   2625000   2625000   infinite   12.500%
52500   1   50.00   2010   2625000   2625000   5250000   100.00%   25.000%
105000   1   50.00   2011   5250000   2625000   7875000   50.00%   37.500%
157500   1   50.00   2012   7875000   2625000   10500000   33.33%   50.000%
210000   2   25.00   2013   10500000   1312500   11812500   12.50%   56.250%
262500   2   25.00   2014   11812500   1312500   13125000   11.11%   62.500%
315000   2   25.00   2015   13125000   1312500   14437500   10.00%   68.750%
367500   2   25.00   2016   14437500   1312500   15750000   9.09%   75.000%
420000   3   12.50   2017   15750000   656250   16406250   4.17%   78.125%
472500   3   12.50   2018   16406250   656250   17062500   4.00%   81.250%
525000   3   12.50   2019   17062500   656250   17718750   3.85%   84.375%
577500   3   12.50   2020   17718750   656250   18375000   3.70%   87.500%
630000   4   6.25   2021   18375000   328125   18703125   1.79%   89.063%
682500   4   6.25   2022   18703125   328125   19031250   1.75%   90.625%
735000   4   6.25   2023   19031250   328125   19359375   1.72%   92.188%
787500   4   6.25   2024   19359375   328125   19687500   1.69%   93.750%

Declining scale it is a deflationary currency


Most people that own BTC, own 10 to million times more than they would keep in a checking account. When it stops growing in value, they will reduce to what they would keep for spending, and invest the lion's share in something that can grow.

Economic Cycle I presume

Thus BitCON is a ponzi scheme and will implode to 1/10 to 1/millionth of its peak price.

So don't tell me that my thread is baseless. Your intellectual capacity is incapable of understanding.

Readers, I linked to my thread about 3 pages back in this thread, before anth0ny cluttered this thread with 3 pages of nonsense tit-for-tat.

But the second part is incorrect

Case Expansion:

Deflationary spiral is an economic argument that proposes that runaway deflation can eventually lead to the collapse of the currency given certain conditions and constraints. It is a common criticism made against the viability of Bitcoin. The ‘deflationary spiral’ is a real condition that affects the popular fractional reserve backing system. Bitcoin is not affected by this because it is fundamentally different from popular currency.

Deflation is a decline in the general price level. Deflation occurs when the price of goods and services, relative to a specific measure, decline. It is not necessarily that the value of the goods and services themselves declined, but can be because the value of the currency itself increased.

For example, let us consider an economy comprised entirely of beef and oranges where the medium of exchange is gold. Both beef and oranges can decay and are not consistent, and therefore cannot be used as a currency. In order to trade, people exchange gold for either beef or oranges. They see gold as a store of value that they can use to purchase beef or oranges in the future. What happens when the economy grows and we can produce more beef and more oranges? The price of both beef and oranges will decline. To the extent our productive capacity for both beef and oranges increased at the same pace, the exchange value between the two (the amount of beef for a given number of oranges) will likely stay the same; however, those who held gold as a store of value would now be able to purchase more beef and more oranges for a given amount of gold.

A deflationary spiral occurs when the value of a currency, relative to the goods in an economy, increases continually as a result of hoarding. As the value of the currency relative to the goods in the economy increase, people have the incentive to hoard the currency, because by merely holding it, they hope to be able to purchase more goods for less money in the future. A lack of currency available in the market causes the price of goods to further decrease, resulting in more hoarding.

In our economy of beef and oranges it is easy to see how this could occur. First, people see a significant gain in productivity on the horizon; we will be able to produce more beef and oranges for the same effort in the future. The supply of gold, however, is fixed. As a result, people desire to hold gold, because they will be able to purchase more beef and oranges with their gold in the future than they can now. This will lead to a decline in the price of beef and oranges as measured by gold (an increase in the value of gold). Limiting the amount of currency in the market available for exchange can also make transactions more difficult. In a complex system where we do not only have beef, oranges and gold, this can result in a deflationary spiral where no one wishes to spend their currency and the economy itself slows as a result of the limited number of transactions. Limited demand with fixed output results in a decline in prices, which further exacerbates the problem.

Alternative explanation: A deflationary spiral occurs when the price of a traded article increases at some given rate, which causes people to hoard it. As people hoard the commodity, less and less of it is available thus causing the price to go up even more. In turn, even more people hoard the commodity. Thus a feedback loop or spiral of deflation occurs.

In practice, there is only a limited amount of 'value' that can be placed upon a good before it becomes too attractive to trade for other goods (thus ending the spiral). The only time that the 'Deflationary Spiral' can happen (to it's conclusion) is when people can foresee a time where they are forced to use that particular traded article.

The popular money that we trade consists of the principal of the loans of other people. All this money must be someday 'repaid.' When people save (pay back their loans), the total monetary supply contracts. When people spend (take out loans), the total monetary supply is increasing.

If you have people who are hoarding money, the principal still needs to be repaid. Hoarding will make it harder for other people in the economy to pay back their loans.

Because people foresee a time where they need to pay back their loans (a future fixed expense), when the value of the money starts to increase (deflation), those with loans will endeavor to pay back the loans quicker. This causes the monetary supply to reduce, reducing the total amount of money available for repayment of loans, again making it harder for people to pay back what they owe.

This Deflationary spiral diverts funds away from the legitimate economy, to the repayment of debt. Causing the economy to stagnate and stop.

The key difference is that people don't foresee a fixed cost (unit amount) that they must pay with Bitcoin. If the value of the Bitcoins that they own increases, then any future cost will take a proportionally smaller amount of Bitcoins. There isn't any fixed incentive to holding Bitcoin other than speculation.

If the economy that uses Bitcoin grows, the per-unit value of Bitcoin proportionally increases also.
Everything is the opposite of the popular fractional reserve banking system (because Bitcoin isn't a debt but an asset). Bitcoins only deflate in value when the Bitcoin Economy is growing.

Because the Deflationary spiral is a real problem in the traditional monetary system, doesn't necessarily mean that it will also be a problem in the Bitcoin economy.

"Elaborate controls to make sure that currency is not produced in greater numbers is not something any other currency, like the dollar or the euro, has," says Russ Roberts, professor of economics at George Mason University. The consequence will likely be slow and steady deflation, as the growth in circulating bitcoins declines and their value rises. "That is considered very destructive in today's economies, mostly because when it occurs, it is unexpected," says Roberts. But he thinks that won't apply in an economy where deflation is expected. "In a Bitcoin world, everyone would anticipate that, and they know what they got paid would buy more then than it would now."

--MIT Technology Review: What Bitcoin Is, and Why It Matters, May 25, 2011

A deflationary spiral occurs when there is an incentive to hoard because of declining prices, which results in even less available currency on the market, further perpetuating declining prices.

How could this occur in the Bitcoin market?
1. Limited price stability has a negative impact on the acceptance of a currency. Vendors do not wish to speculate on the price of currency when selling goods or services.

2. Once prices do stabilize in the future, there will always be the knowledge that the number of Bitcoins in the market is limited. As a result, to the extent the GDP of the Bitcoin economy increases (the total value of all Bitcoin transactions completed increases in "real" terms), there will continue to be price deflation. The expectation of future deflation means that there will be a discrepancy in perceived values between parties valuing bitcoin on longer or shorter time horizons. The apparent over-pricing of bitcoin from the perspective of people engaging in short term transactions will encourage the creation and adoption of competing systems.

While this is not a traditional deflationary spiral, the constraint on the actual money supply can produce the same result, which is a limit on the value of goods and services transacted using Bitcoins.