Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Economics => Topic started by: HappyFunnyFoo on August 05, 2011, 09:57:12 PM



Title: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: HappyFunnyFoo on August 05, 2011, 09:57:12 PM
http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope/files/2009/08/financial_stages1.jpg

We're at the 'denial' stage right now!  Prepare for more pain :)


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: Ridi on August 05, 2011, 10:20:55 PM
Yay I could use a point of maximum financial opportunity


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: Oldminer on August 05, 2011, 10:22:19 PM
http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope/files/2009/08/financial_stages1.jpg

We're at the 'denial' stage right now!  Prepare for more pain :)

This ^^


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: JoelKatz on August 05, 2011, 11:34:35 PM
If only that chart were to scale and had numbers on it.


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: wumpus on August 05, 2011, 11:35:24 PM
I'm still stuck at "optimism" :)


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: neptop on August 05, 2011, 11:41:59 PM
Then we should simply wait for the next optimism+ phases to sell, I guess?


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: FlipPro on August 05, 2011, 11:52:03 PM
Then we should simply wait for the next optimism+ phases to sell, I guess?
THIS :D


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: Oldminer on August 06, 2011, 12:04:45 AM
Then we should simply wait for the next optimism+ phases to sell, I guess?

Sell low

Buy High


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: DavinciJ15 on August 06, 2011, 01:26:23 AM
Then we should simply wait for the next optimism+ phases to sell, I guess?

Sell low

Buy High
What is low? and what is high?


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: Oldminer on August 06, 2011, 01:33:01 AM

What is low? and what is high?

Never mind - i think this game may be too complicated for you  ;D


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: wumpus on August 06, 2011, 01:37:48 AM
What is low? and what is high?
They are relative to each other. As long as you sell for less than you bought for, you're doing it right.


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: JoelKatz on August 06, 2011, 01:50:03 AM
What is low? and what is high?
They are relative to each other. As long as you sell for less than you bought for, you're doing it right.
So I should, say, buy 100 bitcoins for $1,200 and then sell them for $900 -- less than I bought them for?


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: The Script on August 06, 2011, 02:34:11 AM
What is low? and what is high?
They are relative to each other. As long as you sell for less than you bought for, you're doing it right.


Uh....this doesn't sound quite right.  Try again.   ;)


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on August 06, 2011, 02:34:27 AM
I'd say we are in capitulation...cuz we just had the panic


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: Jack of Diamonds on August 06, 2011, 02:35:25 AM
What is low? and what is high?
They are relative to each other. As long as you sell for less than you bought for, you're doing it right.
So I should, say, buy 100 bitcoins for $1,200 and then sell them for $900 -- less than I bought them for?

That's what 'day traders' seem to do every day. It notches down a bit and you sell everything.

The volume charts don't lie, it must be in some perverse, distorted way, be profitable since everyone is doing it.
(Or people really have nerves of.. Tin wire)


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: wumpus on August 06, 2011, 09:03:51 AM
What is low? and what is high?
They are relative to each other. As long as you sell for less than you bought for, you're doing it right.


Uh....this doesn't sound quite right.  Try again.   ;)
It exactly describes the Oldminer school of speculation:

Sell low

Buy High


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: TiagoTiago on August 06, 2011, 09:29:59 AM
Long term it's only going up, so i'm not being optimist, i'm being realist.


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: Cluster2k on August 06, 2011, 10:58:12 AM
Long term it's only going up, so i'm not being optimist, i'm being realist.

Long term it's going down, so I'm not being a pessimist, I'm being a realist.

$9.30 at the moment and getting close to that $9 wall that inevitably disappears as the price approaches that level.  Bitcoin has been in a slide since the $30 intra day high several months ago.  I have yet to see anything that would cause that trend to reverse.

Its often been said that bitcoin's price goes down on weekends.  We've had one hell of a long weekend so far.


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: eof on August 06, 2011, 02:06:17 PM
There are three classes of bitcoin investors; (disclaimer) I don't know how much research has been done into this, I have done none and am going to make up numbers.

Bitcoin early adopter / fan boys.  Most of the wealth (and many of the people.. I have not been watching the board numbers, but if IRC is any indication..) in the forum probably fall into this category; they think BTC is hot sexiness that the world needs and this implementation has a good shot.  Most of the wealth here has been from mining, early entrepreneurial endeavors, and to a lesser extent early cash investments.  Despite the BTC epic fall from 31; most of these people are in the BLACK.

Bitcoin recent adopters, regular people.  These people more likely didn't hear about bitcoin until more recently (deep into the 4->31 rally), or didn't immediately "get" bitcoin when they did hear about it.  They have thrown more cash in, and their mining efforts have paid off less.  A lot of this money came in when bitcoin was rallying above 10, thus most of these people are in the RED.

Fat cats / Govt Money.  I can only speculate that the govt has bought a fair number of bitcoins; throwing a couple million bucks at something is nothing to them, and it would be silly not to have some of these at their disposal.  Maybe not though.  What definitely happened though, is that people who don't give two shits about bitcoin saw an amazing market; counted up total supply (<7M !!) and saw a good buy.   This is primarily what caused the rally (and will inevitably cause the next).  Smart managers made good money on this rally; but inevitably a lot of these firms/rich people lost money as well.  Since they don't "get" bitcoin and only see a falling market, these are the most likely panic sellers, etc.  Take the loss and move on; without a deep understanding and faith in bitcoin, this is the rational mode of action I imagine these firms to be taking.



The 2nd and third groups are probably past or in the 'panic' stage.  The first group, you're probably right, is in the denial stage.  That being said the people who "get" bitcoin probably believe bitcoin will be >31 USD again in the not too distant future.  I think they are right; but time will tell.


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: makko on August 06, 2011, 02:19:48 PM
LOL, I wonder how many people will look at this and think

"
Oh look, if I just wait a little longer..
"

 ::)


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: bitjet on August 06, 2011, 03:38:09 PM
I could have sold it all off at 30 and been quite happy with the huge return, BUT I believe in the principle of bitcoin. Its an awesome idea and I will take a loss to support such a fantastic opportunity of economic freedom.


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: kokjo on August 06, 2011, 05:30:11 PM
I could have sold it all off at 30 and been quite happy with the huge return, BUT I believe in the principle of bitcoin. Its an awesome idea and I will take a loss to support such a fantastic opportunity of economic freedom.

I agree.
I think, couple years in future you can buy car with 20BTC
WRONG! 3 cars.


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: Fakeman on August 06, 2011, 06:29:07 PM
If you look hard enough you might be able to find a car for about the value of 20 BTC today, maybe even one that runs.  :D


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: HappyFunnyFoo on August 06, 2011, 07:18:38 PM
I think that graph is epic. I decided to post something constructive instead of blatantly trolling the forums. :D


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: JCbit on August 06, 2011, 10:37:08 PM
i agree i think that graph is epic lol

but i know its wrong!


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: JCbit on August 06, 2011, 11:13:48 PM
I believe in the principle of bitcoin. Its an awesome idea and I will take a loss to support such a fantastic opportunity of economic freedom.


+1
+1
+1
 :)


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: TiagoTiago on August 06, 2011, 11:24:25 PM
Long term it's only going up, so i'm not being optimist, i'm being realist.

Long term it's going down, so I'm not being a pessimist, I'm being a realist.

$9.30 at the moment and getting close to that $9 wall that inevitably disappears as the price approaches that level.  Bitcoin has been in a slide since the $30 intra day high several months ago.  I have yet to see anything that would cause that trend to reverse.

Its often been said that bitcoin's price goes down on weekends.  We've had one hell of a long weekend so far.

That is still significantly more than the few cents it was just a few months ago. When i say long term i really mean LONG term.


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: elements on August 06, 2011, 11:43:12 PM
Long term it's only going up, so i'm not being optimist, i'm being realist.

Long term it's going down, so I'm not being a pessimist, I'm being a realist.

$9.30 at the moment and getting close to that $9 wall that inevitably disappears as the price approaches that level.  Bitcoin has been in a slide since the $30 intra day high several months ago.  I have yet to see anything that would cause that trend to reverse.

Its often been said that bitcoin's price goes down on weekends.  We've had one hell of a long weekend so far.

That is still significantly more than the few cents it was just a few months ago. When i say long term i really mean LONG term.

how do you define longterm? 6 months , a year, ten years, a hundred years, a thousand years???

please be more precise ;)


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: darkwon on August 07, 2011, 12:01:36 AM
Entered the 'Fear' stage now, desperation coming up soon :)


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: Oldminer on August 07, 2011, 12:02:35 AM
Entered the 'Fear' stage now, desperation coming up soon :)

lol love this graph. Yes must continue to include it in my speculation analysis...


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: Houdini on August 07, 2011, 12:52:30 AM
We're at the 'denial' stage right now!  Prepare for more pain :)
Oh I'm waaay past the denial, panic and desperation stage... I'm in the zen "watching the crazy world go by and laughing" stage right now...


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: BitcoinStars.com on August 07, 2011, 12:54:13 AM
http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope/files/2009/08/financial_stages1.jpg

We're at the 'denial' stage right now!  Prepare for more pain :)

Anyone who bought near the top is in the depression stage ATM IMO  :o


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: Nagle on August 07, 2011, 05:38:44 PM
There's not likely to be an upswing at the end.  When a company's stock goes low enough, it may be worth buying if they have production capacity and a market.  A company may become profitable when its capital costs decline.  Or at least it may be able to cover its operating costs. (Venture capitalists call this "zombie mode", where a startup can't possibly pay back its investors but can cover its operating expenses.  Companies can limp along in zombie mode for years.)

But Bitcoin generates no revenue. It's a pure speculation, a pyramid scheme, really,  In the end, it will go to 0.


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: kokjo on August 07, 2011, 05:42:20 PM
But Bitcoin generates no revenue. It's a pure speculation, a pyramid scheme, really,  In the end, it will go to 0.
then why are you still here?


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on August 07, 2011, 05:50:41 PM
Chart predicted it.

+1 chart.


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: Vladimir on August 07, 2011, 06:13:37 PM
This model is way too simplistic. There are not even bull and bear traps present. I'd say that we have classical bear trap here during 'smart money' stage.


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: westkybitcoins on August 07, 2011, 06:40:18 PM
But Bitcoin generates no revenue. It's a pure speculation, a pyramid scheme, really,  In the end, it will go to 0.

That sounds familiar. Where could I have heard that....

Quote
But gold generates no revenue. It's a pure speculation, a pyramid scheme, really,  In the end, it will go to 0.

Ah. Right.

(No, bitcoin isn't as highly valued as gold, but it's sure not worthless.)


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: Bitcoin Swami on August 07, 2011, 06:52:34 PM
This chart a little better at mirroring bitcoins chart.

http://www.activemanagersresource.com/images/TI/anatomy-of-a-bubble.png


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on August 07, 2011, 07:00:26 PM
So what happens after "return to mean"


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: foggyb on August 07, 2011, 08:05:27 PM
The 100-day moving average is 13.50$.


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: miscreanity on August 07, 2011, 11:02:39 PM
So what happens after "return to mean"

Continuation of the fundamental trend. Wild gyrations may occur around it, but do not change it.


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: mizike29 on August 07, 2011, 11:23:05 PM
I think most of the supporters are still on the optimitstic side, and some random people or jumped in, just got interested or spent money, they get into fear mode too quickly and sell some off.  PLus the miners just droppen some coins to pay fpr there equipment.  IM STILL WAITING FOR MY SEcoND DAMN ATI 6990 been over 2 months now waiting for that thing that could be making me some coins.


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: walidzohair on August 09, 2011, 02:42:40 PM
http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope/files/2009/08/financial_stages1.jpg

We're at the 'denial' stage right now!  Prepare for more pain :)

BUt you only forgot one thing .... it is all bearish!!! so the next optimism will be always less than the one before!!!!  :o


R.I.P!!!


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: cypherdoc on August 09, 2011, 03:29:47 PM
the OP is just a fool.


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: mizike29 on August 09, 2011, 08:35:44 PM
Looks like a nice little recovery, hit a high of 12.1 today, doesnt look much like a failure to me???


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: HappyFunnyFoo on August 09, 2011, 11:46:17 PM
the OP is just a fool.

Cypherdoc, UMADBRO? Bitcoin is a fun experiment, it sounds like you bought coins at $15+ and lost some capital.

Here's why you're mad and in denial Doc: Bitcoin doesn't do anything for you, doesn't generate any dividends, doesn't split and increase in value over a 10-year period, doesn't pay bonuses, can't really be used to buy anything useful in a local (or internet) market, is too volatile to be taken seriously, isn't inherently secure, and could be shut down easily by a sideways fart from the CIA. The only way it increases in value is if the demand from speculators exceeds the demand from mining.  This can only result in a super-bubble with a super collapse.  Keep bitcoin a fun experiment, it's not a place for real money :) :( You'll make more money in the long run holding 10-year U.S. treasuries than holding bitcoins.

UMADBRO!!!!

=========================

This chart a little better at mirroring bitcoins chart.

http://www.activemanagersresource.com/images/TI/anatomy-of-a-bubble.png

CowTipper, that's a great chart! I was going more for a general approach to bubbles with my basic chart. Your chart is really better, but it's deceptive in that people could interpret the current position of bitcoin falsely (lots of people would argue that we're returning to the mean and that value will go up, when in fact it's going to decay and drop over time - whether the price decay is slow and controlled or rapid, I'm not sure).



Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: cypherdoc on August 10, 2011, 12:04:20 AM
the OP is just a fool.

Cypherdoc, UMADBRO? Bitcoin is a fun experiment, it sounds like you bought coins at $15+ and lost some capital.

Here's why you're mad and in denial Doc: Bitcoin doesn't do anything for you, doesn't generate any dividends, doesn't split and increase in value over a 10-year period, doesn't pay bonuses, can't really be used to buy anything useful in a local (or internet) market, is too volatile to be taken seriously, isn't inherently secure, and could be shut down easily by a sideways fart from the CIA. The only way it increases in value is if the demand from speculators exceeds the demand from mining.  This can only result in a super-bubble with a super collapse.  Keep bitcoin a fun experiment, it's not a place for real money :) :( You'll make more money in the long run holding 10-year U.S. treasuries than holding bitcoins.

UMADBRO!!!!

=========================

This chart a little better at mirroring bitcoins chart.

http://www.activemanagersresource.com/images/TI/anatomy-of-a-bubble.png

CowTipper, that's a great chart! I was going more for a general approach to bubbles with my basic chart. Your chart is really better, but it's deceptive in that people could interpret the current position of bitcoin falsely (lots of people would argue that we're returning to the mean and that value will go up, when in fact it's going to decay and drop over time - whether the price decay is slow and controlled or rapid, I'm not sure).



naw Fool.  i am hugely in the green having started my buying at $1.60.  haha.  UMADBRO!

i'll tell you what.  i'll bet you 100 BTC or $1000 that the BTC price in USD terms is higher one year from now than it is today money to be held in escrow.

you being such a bad dude, c'mon bro put your money where your mouth is chump!  LOL!


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: mizike29 on August 10, 2011, 12:09:19 AM
I absolutely agree.  Your incorrect about a few things, bitcoins can buy useful and very good things through the internet easily now.  It is more like a cool idea right now, people still learning its young, and that allows one to make money like from a stock, buy low, sell higher.  Selling is getting easier and I have sold about 200 coins now using ebay, forums and paypal.  THe price is still higher now then it was a couple months ago.  Way more support now, info, websites, things are looking better, will just take a little time.


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: cypherdoc on August 10, 2011, 12:15:46 AM
i'm waiting chump FunnyFool.


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: cypherdoc on August 10, 2011, 12:32:15 AM
i'm going to give you the benefit of assuming you're offline.  but when you come back to this thread don't you dare make another post before addressing my bet.  in fact, i raise you to 200 BTC or $2000.

if you fail to respond you're a weenie and a coward who happens to be a paid shill.  your handlers are gonna be disappointed in you and you could get fired.

edit:  Asshole.


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: cypherdoc on August 10, 2011, 04:26:38 AM
your lack of response means you are indeed a Funny Fool, Foo.  as i said before you're a coward and a weenie with no convictions behind what you say.


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: Shortline on August 10, 2011, 05:02:13 PM
Stop bumping this shitty thread, dude. Let it die.


Title: Re: Most Bitcoin speculators are at the 'denial' stage of the crash
Post by: Boussac on August 12, 2011, 08:11:22 AM
This thread could be merged with the so called "failure" discussion.
Denial is when the banking system would like to pretend the bitcoin network was never invented.
Bitcoins are going to be around for a looooong time because so many people now understand that the money supply mecanisms of the state sponsored currencies are at the root of inequalites.