Bitcoin Forum

So this has been the largest weekend dump in the history of bitcoins :) I'm sending more moneys in tomorrow, using little math skills you can figure that there's enough fiat now in MtGox to drive the price right back past 15...

Disclaimer - currently in BTCs bought in at ~8.

15 eh? uh huh... How many time have I heard something like this before.

He's right, and it CAN happen.

Theoretically it can yes... but very doubtful.

Bill, it is possible, only one thing should happen to make the price 15 - everybody holding the USD now should start buying. Right now is the time when BTCs are changing hands from panicky kids to steelballed pros :) Of course, the price can go lower. Not much lower than now, though.

My estimate total BTCs sold on the way down was ~100,000, so that makes it 1 million in fiat money at average price $10 which are now in MtG. There are a little over 6,000 coins left for sale now on MtG, with a *total* price of 50k USD. If money start buying, demand would overwhelm supply.

I have a big feeling that money is leaving MtGox to peoples own bank accounts. I think people are fed up and done. Might follow its usual path of a spike followed by a bigger drop like a rubber ball going down wooden stairs.

Bill, have you looked at the BTC price history graph at all? Since the beginning of 2010. I urge you do so :) Right now is the 3rd "all is lost" region so far. You must understand that BTCs traded at MtGox are a tiny percentage of the whole project. Like 2-3%. Most people investing in BTCs are signing it off as lost money / keeping it away, and 2% are traded on MtG determining the price of the rest. People who withdraw are miners who need to pay for living. I personally never mined, and alot of people here as well - just invested some money in the high risk project to diversify.

Proof to backup your claim that people are withdrawing money?

I withdrew.

No one can offer proof on that without violating trust in the exchanges. Its speculation, same as the person who thinks bitcoin is going to $15

Right right, speculation based on firm observations though. And nobody has stopped the "buy low sell high" axiom so far. Now is low, in case you didn't notice :) Newbies like Genius, who invested at 15 and moved out at 7, will never make any money on BTCs (or any other market in fact, rules are the same everywhere).

I understand but bitcoin isn't big enough to follow standardized market trends. But the price of the exchanges is the hard value of the currency right now and its plummeting like a stone.

The party is over. All that is left are dead cat bounces and thats it.

Pretty much everything that has to do with bitcoin has failed. The only thing successful is SHA-256 coding, not bitcoins.

Right right so when blind Joe's tobacco shop is robbed, you blame USD for this? People are funny :)

What in the world are you talking about?

It's a response for people who establish a link between some amateurish websites that got hacked lately and Bitcoin at large. There is a connection, but its one way - derivatives are not influencing the currency.

Ok, you've lost me. If you want to talk about that you need to provide some back information.

"Genius" here implies that several bitcoin-related projects have been hacked recently (MtG, Mybitcoin, bitomat.pl and some more lesser incidents). In his mind, those single-person-ran websites equal to Bitcoin project in general. I can't blame him, it's the interface between people and coins. Thing is, interfaces come and go, coins stay.

Ok, now I see what you're talking about. The problem isn't the money. Its the theft itself and the bitcoin online "banks" have proven to be less than reliable. Combine that with the no chargeback feature of the coin and confidence dwindles from multiple robberies that cant be recovered.

Imagine walking down the street.

Between the time you left your house and the time you arrive at the store, your money vanishes out of your pocket.

Hmm. An invisible robber stole your money.

You have no leads, you have no idea how they did it or when they did it. You have no idea how to stop them because you don't know how they did it or what you did to let them do it. If you had known, you would have stopped it before it happened.


Even if you track your money by the serial number and find the money, you can't take the money back. You can't go to his house. You can't call the police. You can't ever get it back.



Now, you are smart. You deposit the coins in the bitcoin bank. Now you're not carrying anything and use your account to access the bank. Oh shit, an invisible robber just stole all the bank's bitcoins.

Now everyone's fucked!

What? Nobody stole a single bitcoin off me or anybody else - anybody who deals with financials already and knows how to secure their computer. If you give attacker full access to your computer, you can as well kiss your bank money goodbye. You kids have to learn things the hard way I guess.

Anyone that chalks up computer illiteracy as a strike against Bitcoin shouldn't be online to begin with... if your shit gets stolen by a virus, you fail at life; it says nothing about Bitcoin.

Try saying that after your computer gets pwned by a zero day exploit because you just happened to visit the wrong web site.  No need to download and install dodgy software, no need to click anything.  Software makers need several days to patch the hole while anyone is free to exploit it.  It doesn't happen often, but it most certainly happens.

It's pretty hard to get hit by a 0day when you run NoScript, sandbox your browser, run a registry monitor, and the latest AV/antiMalware right? Just a matter of taking the necessary precautions. Granted most people won't run shit like I do because I browse around dodgy shit, but if you're storing a virtual cash currency on your PC, it'd probably be smart to treat it like you'd want your bank to treat your money.

And again, irregardless of the degree of 0day exposure, this doesn't speak to Bitcoin as a protocol and currency infrastructure. When you see hackers counterfeiting BTC, then people will have an argument.

Seriously, our hardware and software stack is so tall now it's impossible to guarantee security.  With closed source hardware and software it's near impossible to prove there are no back doors installed for use by various gov't agencies or even the vendor.  Are you absolutely sure your camera drivers don't have a call home function for "support" and that feature won't be discovered and used by black hat guys?

My wife is an IT person.   She's been a computer geek and slinging code since she was six on an Atari 800.  We have a hardware firewall, she doesn't surf dodgy sites or install anything from the net and yet - her machine was pwned into being a botnet member.  Twice over 8 months.  One more incident for me, twice more at *work*, and another for my parents all over 3 years.

We've all been virus free for 18 months since then due to running 100% Linux instead of Windows, but that's not because Linux was written by gods.  But because it's less than 1% of the installed userbase.  We'd be getting 'pwned' all day long if Linux was 95%.  Back in 2000 I put a freshly installed copy of Red Hat on the net before I had a chance to lock down services and went to dinner.  By the time I came back it was already 'pwned' and running 'kokainekit.'

These are very personal anecdotes, but if you think your hardware and software solution is 100% secure and are willing to trust your entire financial wellbeing on that assumption -- well, you're just starting your voyage on the unsinkable Titanic.

Lol, then you're doing it all wrong, trust me.

Yep, that's the niche for off-line wallet generators. If the private key never touches any internet-connected device before the coins are spent, you are perfectly secure. Storing large amount of coins on your computer (or phone) is a very bad idea indeed.

If he is, then so are many, many others. What you don't realize is that the success of Bitcoin is hinged on the ability of people other than pimple farming tech nerds like you being convinced of the utility of Bitcoin. Given that the "value" of Bitcoin (in terms of USD as it really has no inherent value at all, despite all the libertarian claims otherwise) is derived from its use as a commodity to day-trade with, there is no possible incentive for regular folks - who don't need or want to have to master the innards of computer security in order to "protect" their investment - to use these things. Bitcoin is currently for the cash-poor and time-rich, those who see nothing wrong wuth (1) spending hours watching MtGoxLive in hopes of being able to make a small margin on some volatility or (2) run 18 graphics cards with fans blowing in their dorm room.

Most people's time is more valuable than that, and these are the people - whether you like it or not - who have the money to make Bitcoin something more than the technerd's casino that it currently is. Making statements like "if you can't protect your bitcoin, you deserve to lose it" reeks of the adolescent mentality most of you have.

Get owned lately? Sounding real emotional, like a female. You a female?

That's your response to anything over your head, eh? The only emotional response was yours, little one.
No, I haven't been "owned" as I cashed out of Bitcoin awhile ago. As isaidin another post, I am here because I am fascinated by the various reactions to Bitcoin as it slowly implodes. The rabid zealotry, the poorly thought-out libertarian drivel, the this-is-only-for-the-hardcore line of thought (this is where you fit in), and lastly the reactions of people waking up to the fact that Bitcoin is just the modern-day Beanie-baby. It's the last group that I most enjoy seeing posts from.

OP I hope you will wire as much as you can and bank on this $15 target. We need as many as we can get to put money where their mouth is. Every bull should be buying or adding at this discounted prices. If it was me, I would add more than I'm willing to lose, because $15 from $8 is worth the risk. Your math skills must be wicked !

In the real world, brokerages do disclose periodically how much total cash they have in customer accounts. That number appears in quarterly financial statements, and it's necessary to keep them honest. It's not a number that's disclosed daily, though.

Yeah, you're a female.

Little child, you'll learn.

Was hoping for another paragraph rant from "Shinobi" :(

http://us.cdn3.123rf.com/168nwm/stylephotographs/stylephotographs1001/stylephotographs100100024/6200309-business-woman-ranting-and-shaking-her-finger.jpg

It takes no effort to become a lol-punctuating script kiddie, just spend lots of time in the right IRC channels.  The guys finding the exploits are brilliant, I have nothing but respect for them.  The skids infesting grandma's machine with botnet malware not so much.

And you utterly missed my point.   If a successful IT pro is "doing it wrong" what hope does Mr. Joe Average have?  It's interesting that you accuse Shinobi of being a woman with the implication that women are too stupid to use computers and by extension bitcoin.  There goes 55% of your target market if not more.

Anyay, back to my personal anecdote.  Between the two of us we've delivered everything from ICU hardware (ventillators, cardiac monitors, etc) to Mars mission planning software to phone switches to brokerage middleware.  I'm going out on a limb to say our ability to learn and understand things programmable is a bit more advanced than most.  And yet, in spite of taking *reasonable* precautions we still got 'pwned' by skids.

There's a spectrum between perfect security and perfect convenience.  The problem with providing the extreme level of security needed to feel good about keeping more than a trivial amount of money in bitcoins the coinvenience is waaaaaay outside what your average scrub like myself will put up with.

Until user friendly front ends complete with *reversible transactions* to deal with people's mistakes as well as fraud you won't have mainstream dogpiling on this.  And without mainstream it'll remain a fun and quirky niche product -- not that there's anything wrong with that.  Just saying you may wish to temper your expectation of explosive price growth just yet.

And that's part two of the problem.  Reliability.  100% reliability is impossible.  And if it was, cost approaches infinity as reliability approaches 100%.  So you bring in redundancy to reduce your odds of total loss.  But redundancy increases the odds of theft or error.

USB drives fail.  DVDs fail.  Magnetic media?  Consumer grade electronics?  Laughable.  About the only way to secure your private key is to etch it on several pieces of stainless steel and lock them in separate vaults.  But then usability rears its ugly head again.  And there is the possibility of someone taking a photo of it while you access it yourself...

+1 . The "blame the victim" crowd don't understand that they need mainstream users to get Bitcoin to lift-off as they want to.

Ah, a misogynistic teenager. Bet the girls pick on you at school.

Edit: @grod

I saw your point entirely, and your assumption that I believe Bitcoin will become mainstream is misguided, and thus very wrong. If Bitcoin were condemned to be a perpetually underground e-currency, I'd be entirely content with that outcome.

To clarify, my implication was that Shinobi has female tendencies, i.e. letting emotion rule her day-to-day responses to stimuli, hence her charged and insulting responses to my otherwise tame quip about people getting infected by Bitcoin malware. Really? Of all things, BTC malware? And for that you direct anger at me? I'm well aware that intelligence has no gender exclusivity, and so I'm also well aware females are perfectly capable of securing their own home networks.

But I digress...

I don't believe Bitcoins will become mainstream within the foreseeable future, maybe ever. As long as its utility remains intact for my needs, and the needs of everyone else, whether that be for illicit purposes or other, there is no sense in arguing over the semantics of mainstream viability at such a premature stage. The argument thus far is that Bitcoin is "dead" or a "flawed currency" because it lacks market stability and a bunch of front-end useability for the laymen. My argument is it's perfectly alive as long as (a) the underpinnings of the protocol aren't compromised and (b) me and a select few of my peers agree that it holds value and can be exchanged for USD. I can avoid being severely impacted by volatility by making transactions and exchanges an immediate priority. For me, I'll do anonymous transactions all day and not think twice about whether BTC goes mainstream, because frankly I don't give a shit about that. Would it be nice? Yeah. Am I going to fret over it? No. BTC already addresses my needs. I'll let others worry about the viability and duties of building the infrastructure to address their needs.

How about that, we're on the same wavelength.  I'm interested in BTC because of the utility it offers me.

But I'm also interested in its exchange rate vs. the $ because I've been getting a massive amount of entertainment out of the technerd casino.  Plus some pocket change.

I've been hearing so much about why bitcoin should be valued at the market cap it has because of its potential to go mainstream and increase in value by several orders of magnitude that I assume *everyone* has that mindset.  My bad.

Put in a sell order for all my bitcoins at 8.49 and a buy order to get them all back at 6.01 before I went to bed last night.  Was happy to see they both filled while I was sleeping.   ;D

Oh you bet I will :) Right now making some sweet profit (+70% during the last week alone) on this bottom-seeking swings, and am wiring as much as I already spent first thing tomorrow. And if BTC goes near $1, I'm going all in :) However, unfortunately, breaching $5 does not seem likely right now. We'll see.

Bunch of Gordon Gekkos on this forum. I have seen numerous perfect trades since I joined. Everyone saying they making money left and right. One starts to wonder who is on the other side of the trade, since this is a zero sum game - fees. It would make my day that someone claims they filled 10k block at $6.00.

skyhigh, even a monkey could have gotten +50% during the last week, with price jumping 7-9 and back like four times. I just did two swings. Who loses money? I suppose there are opposites, people who sell at 7 thinking we're going all the way down and then buy back at 9 thinking the rally started. But I don't hear them speak up here often, and frankly I don't want to hear from them, trying to filter out the overall panic and insanity of these forums and tune in to a few sane voices :)

Which is why it's a pyramid scheme.

But the current downtrend is the most severe.  And beyond a two month duration (will be reached during the coming week), it will also be the longest.

Not to say that this downtrend can't reverse.  It has a corollary: what goes down can go back up. 

Once the bears are all squeezed out, price will snap back up.  The market will be consolidated into fewer hands each owning more BTC.  These wealthy individuals can remove ask walls, and they also have the USD to push the market higher with successive bid walls.  The bulls rush in after the reversal becomes apparent.

Or atleast that's what I'm betting.


I haven't done spectacular on these swings, about breaking even in USD terms.  But I am happy with the increase in my BTC holdings.

so this has been a tremendous weekend, congratulations to everybody else who had the balls not to panic and instead increased their BTC holdings :) now we fly.