Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Oldminer on August 10, 2011, 10:48:41 AM



Title: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: Oldminer on August 10, 2011, 10:48:41 AM
Ok seems we're at a bit of a crossroad in history with Bitcoin right atm with a fairly recent high of $32, a recent low of $6, and a current value of $10. BTC price was in freefall only a few days ago but it seems to have had a reprieve..but where to from here?

Though I believe in the longer term Bitcoin has a positive future, the question remains as to whether it has yet reached its record low since its high of $32? Are we at a plateau before another drop down or another step up? The next chapter in the life of Bitcoin is due to open shortly, but the question on everyone's lips is : -

Whats it gonna be next for Bitcoin? Which way will the worm turn?

A Dump?

A Pump?

Or a Pump 'n Dump double whammy?

Lets have a poll and see what the general consensus is around here.



Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: phatsphere on August 10, 2011, 11:33:36 AM
my interpretation is, that, if you look at the whole chart history at a logarithmic scale, this has more or less already happened. a few 10% up or down doesn't matter. the entire operation is still in its infancy and one should not think too much about the last months.


Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: Vandroiy on August 10, 2011, 01:17:42 PM
If people fit straight lines onto log-scale price charts, the following crash doesn't usually involve soft landings.


Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: OgNasty on August 10, 2011, 03:12:18 PM
I think it'll be a dump and pump.   ;)


Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: zby on August 10, 2011, 03:24:51 PM
I used to think that it will continue the long slow slide until autumn - but then I was reminded about the conference next week.  There will be lots of media.  It looks like it is not yet widely advertised here at this forum - but I am sure that the price will start going up even before the event.


Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: Mousepotato on August 10, 2011, 05:17:15 PM
Not to be nit picky, but you're talking about Bitcoin exchanges, not Bitcoin itself.  But to answer your question, I think we'll settle on a fairly stable rate of around $8 more or less, and we'll see slow organic growth from here on out that continues the curve we saw in May before everything went ape shit.


Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: the joint on August 10, 2011, 05:54:51 PM
Good poll.  The best thing about this poll so far is that it shows that there is a good likelihood that nobody knows what the hell they're talking about.

Lesson?  USE THE CHARTS AND THE DATA to navigate the market.  Don't listen to the "buy buy buys" and the "sell sell sells."


Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: piramida on August 10, 2011, 08:50:16 PM
Not to be nit picky, but you're talking about Bitcoin exchanges, not Bitcoin itself.  But to answer your question, I think we'll settle on a fairly stable rate of around $8 more or less, and we'll see slow organic growth from here on out that continues the curve we saw in May before everything went ape shit.

I do not think "slow organic growth" is possible with bitcoins at this stage. Price seeking will always go in a seesaw pattern, with rapid jumps up and selloffs followed by a slow slide down. As long as any large investor will cause a +50% growth, it will always follow this pattern - large money buys, then smaller profit seekers sell, then value slowly moves down on miners selling. If there are many investors, this cycle repeats before the price reaches previous lows, thus on average moving up. But never slowly growing, not possible here yet :)


Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: Smalleyster on August 10, 2011, 09:08:34 PM
My guess is a slow jagged slide downwards until 1) the thieves have chashed out fully and 2) lots more vendors come onboard.


Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: Oldminer on August 11, 2011, 01:04:37 PM
Ok the poll's closed and it looks like the mood is still slightly bearish.

The general consensus is that a pump will be the next chapter in the life of Bitcoin with a good proportion of voters expecting a dump shortly after. However a good proportion of voters are leaning towards a possible dump without the pump also, so I guess we can safely conclude that the next chapter of Bitcoin will include a dump in one form or another.

Let the games begin!  ;D



Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: Oldminer on August 12, 2011, 03:55:10 AM
So it seems since the poll closed the first major move has in fact been a bit of a pump - yet the majority of voters predicted a dump would occur before a pump &/or that there would be a dump without a pump. Yet still we have no DUMP?? Weeeeeelllllll...stay tuned for the next exciting episode of Bitcoin!



Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: Smalleyster on August 12, 2011, 04:11:59 AM
The view from my window shows the dumpers with a very slight edge, but the pumpers are holding in there rather well. Wonder who's gonna run out of gas first?


Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: Oldminer on August 12, 2011, 05:35:56 AM
And there she goes..finally we get our DUMP!!!!!!!!!!!


HOME RUN  ;D


Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: Smalleyster on August 12, 2011, 05:39:35 AM
but check out the pumpers, clawing their way back


Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: Oldminer on August 12, 2011, 05:42:21 AM
but check out the pumpers, clawing their way back

Yea Im betting (literally) its the sellers buying smaller amounts back at a higher price to try and generate support. When the rally fails they dump again.  ::)


Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: Smalleyster on August 12, 2011, 05:46:41 AM
but check out the pumpers, clawing their way back

Yea Im betting (literally) its the sellers buying smaller amounts back at a higher price to try and generate support. When the rally fails they dump again.  ::)

Very good point. as it crawls back up again. lol


Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: Oldminer on August 12, 2011, 05:48:46 AM
but check out the pumpers, clawing their way back

Yea Im betting (literally) its the sellers buying smaller amounts back at a higher price to try and generate support. When the rally fails they dump again.  ::)

Very good point. as it crawls back up again. lol

Yea well makes sense. Who better to start a rally than the high rollers with the coin  ;D


Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: triforcelink on August 12, 2011, 09:00:29 AM
The forecast is cloudy, with a chance of doom.


Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: Oldminer on August 12, 2011, 09:39:55 AM
Rally Blip time ladies and gents  ;D


Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: TiagoTiago on August 12, 2011, 09:53:34 AM
My vote is it will be worth 100USD per BTC before XMass, and then the upward speed will start to stabilize.

Why? Because believing in that reality makes me happy, that's why.


Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: Gerken on August 12, 2011, 11:59:24 AM
My vote is it will be worth 100USD per BTC before XMass, and then the upward speed will start to stabilize.

Why? Because believing in that reality makes me happy, that's why.

And what exactly do you think will cause this huge demand for bitcoins in the next 4 months? As for my prediction, Bitcoins will continue to sputter along, slowly dropping in price, maybe stabilizing at ~4-5 dollars by being bought out by naive nerds who think they are "getting in early". 


Title: Re: Next chapter in the life of Bitcoin?
Post by: Oldminer on August 12, 2011, 12:10:13 PM
And so we reach the end of this chapter in the life of Bitcoin and the results are out:

First we got a dump, a small pump, then another dump. So it seems the dumps have it. In the process Bitcoin lost approximately $1 of its value. It would be safe to conclude over the period of this chapter that the market was still bearish.

Stay tuned for the next exciting episode of Bitcoin.