Bitcoin Forum

I've run some calculations and have been tracking the growth trend. The rate of growth that new people are coming into Bitcoin is very high, media attention is high, and that means demand is high.

I believe Bitcoin is growing faster now than it was in April and will be growing even faster in Q1 2014 because there will be better infrastructure. Once we have an easy way to buy and store Bitcoins the demand will so far outweigh the supply that the price will go from $1000 to $10,000 within a matter of weeks. We will see growth spurts of $1000+ in a matter of 48hrs or less.

I predict it will peak out at around $15,000 and that all of this will happen between January 2014 and May 2014.  Remember this thread to see if I'm right when the time comes and if I am right you can tip me.
16AgTxbEARQN2BnxVfZcLgtBFb1TBjbJiw

Cocaine is good for your health.

However you do not post any of your "calculations" which makes this thread worth nothing. Basically you are just guessing.

It will be great if you show us that calculations. Just pure words don't show your standpoint

Translation: I'm making a random unsubstantiated guess hoping that some inbred cretin will tip me.

i was just about to post a similar calculation.  Just as scientific as yours.  Maybe throw in a graph with a few points on it too for good measure!
One can dream I guess.

The graph should have a few triangles.

and a picture of the moon  :D

Unlikely.

This

Price predictions often run in line with what people want the coin to go to, not what it will go to...

$10,000 in Q1? You're running solely on hope. In 2014? Highly unlikely, but maybe. I'm thinking $4-5000 top in '14.

$10,000 and beyond is 2015 territory ;)

I could reveal my calculations but that takes the fun and mystery away. Just check back on this thread when the time comes.

For a hint:

Others here have done similar calculations with charts and have extrapolated the market cap for 2014 based on what happened in 2013. It's not hard to figure out that if growth happens at the exact same rate as in 2013 that we will surpass $10,000 in Q1 2014. You can look at the chart from 2013 and put it side by side with the chart from 2012, 2011, and then base it on the growth rate in the past.

People who don't think Bitcoin can surpass $10,000 in 2014 Q1 are day traders who never once took a look at the all time logarithmic chart, or looked at the untapped potential market cap, or the rate of growth of new users. For example Coinbase has 600,000 users right now and is growing at a rate of hundreds of thousands of new years a month. Coinbase will pass 1 million users in Q1 2014 and they just received 25 million in investment.

I will reiterate, $10,000-15,000 Q1 2014. If I'm right by May 2014 then remember to tip my Bitcoin address.

This post is going to provide me with great amusement this spring when the price is above $10,000. I gave hints on the data points required to make the calculation but I'll reiterate one more time.

You need the highest market cap of 2013. The highest market cap of 2012. The highest market cap of 2011. This forms a trend line on a chart.

You need to look at rate of the growth in users of blockchain.info an Coinbase which also forms a trend line on a chart.

You need to look at the pace of that growth, how long did it take to reach an 8, no a 10, 12 billion dollar market cap? Then you have to determine if its possible that we could reach 100 billion dollar market cap sometime thing spring.

I say yes it's not only possible but it's going to happen. I believe we have reached the tipping point which generally is reached before exponential growth. We saw the same trend with twitter, facebook, etc. After we reach a certain level of users the tipping point is reached and the exponential growth phase is entered. I believe we are entering that phase now.

You'll see the evidence of what I'm talking about in early February when the price should pass $2000, then $5000. By April or May it will be $10,000+.

Given BTC rose from $13 to current prices in the span of less than a year this is completely possible. Sprinkle in some irrational exuberance and we have 30k noproblem.

Most of the people commenting didn't watch Bitcoin go from $13 to $260. No one thought it was possible that Bitcoin could go over $100 in 2013 and it went over $1200.

In 2014 I think it will go over $100,000 but the next bubble will take it to $10,000 and that is only a couple months away. By February we will see the next bubble. We aren't seeing it right now because it's the Christmas season so people aren't going to be buying as much but also because it's just not reaching the tipping point. 2014 you'll see a flood of institutional investors, hedge funds, oh yeah and the new crowd funding legislation will open the door to non-accredited investors.

It's not hard to figure out that once the flood gates are open 100 billion is really not a lot of money at all. It probably will be a bubble for sure, but that is how Bitcoin grows. It has never grown slowly, so the people saying it will be $2000 this summer aren't basing it on the trends from previous years. If Bitcoin has the exact same year it had in 2013 with all the negative media attention and difficulty in buying it then it reaches $10,000 by this summer. If we factor in the positive media attention, better infrastructure, and institutional investment like hedge funds and IRAs then you have $20,000 this summer and $100,000+ next winter when the market cap will be in the hundreds of billions.

The demand is there. The people are sold on it and are trying to figure out how to buy it. When they can call their broker and order it then you'll see $10,000. When it goes over $10,000 people will go into a buying frenzy and push it to $100,000.

With this year % increase, anything can be possible. No need to say $10,000 is too much, wont happen next year  ;)

ASSUMPTIONS

Y'all exponentially multiplying, hoping for the best, not calculating in the worst

No, price does not work this way. Going from $1,000 to $10,000 is ten times harder than going from $100 to $1,000

"Very possible"

and your arguments are what exactly?

sometimes it looks like the average bitcoin-believer has an IQ of a dead goat

I think you're right, Luckybit.

Its more likely for bitcoin to go back to $100 than it is to go to $10,000.

The only way bitcoin can go to $10,000 in the near term is if wall street gets involved. That means the Winklevoss twins ETF gets approved. It might take a while for that to happen if it ever does.

THIS. lol  ;D

+1. This sounds about right. I think it's far more likely that we'll be dropping in Q1 of next year unless there's some major world financial scare or the ETF gets approved, at which point we'll go up again... but yes, it's going to take some time.

Give it some time, I believe it is only matter of time. Price may reach $10,000 before this happens

"Wall Street Will Put 'Hundreds of Millions' Into Bitcoin"

http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/230346

Bitcoin will be over $10k by the end of 2014 (is my guess).

This is a speculation forum, so I'm going to speculate that it will take US$10,000 to buy 1.0 BTC by end of Q2 2014.

Actually no it's not 10 times harder. The network effect actually would make it more like 10 times easier. When something is easier to buy, more people want it, bigger institutions with more money want it, and it's seen as legitimate rather than a currency for drug dealers and terrorists, why would it be 10 times harder to go from $1000-10,000 as if there aren't hedge funds and investment banks who could easily put in hundreds of millions to billions at a time?

Hundreds of Millions is not enought, you would need hundred Billion instead...
$10k * 12,000,000 = 120 Billion $

Nope.

Not every coin is paid for with $10k.

Bitcoin is stupid enough to be driven to 10k with no more than 50M USD

At exchanges is around 100M USD
You need ten times more USD at exchanges for 10k to have about the same price stability

The difficulty must rise another 10 times to make this happen :)

Keep in mind that the bloke being quoted in that headline is the CEO of the company running the Bitcoin Investment Trust, and thus has a lot to gain from making people think that Wall Street will be putting huge money into Bitcoin, whether or not he actually believes it.

Keep in mind, everyone here has a lot to gain saying Bitcoin will go up or down because who knows they could have made bets either way.

And nothing stops you from profiting from the crash down as much as from the rise up. Bitcoin can be shorted. Incredibly short sighted and weak argument.

I approve of this calculation, because the number 23 is in it :)

x42

Then I'll have everything I need.  :D

Let me clarify. My point was more that a news article with a headline like that should be taken with a grain of salt rather than treated as evidence of its own, given that the person being quoted is incentivized to talk up Bitcoin's upside. Whether it's possible to "profit on the way down" or whether people on this forum (who may or may not have positions) are similarly incentivized isn't really relevant to that; if my post came across as making some other argument, I apologize for being unclear.

I have found that people in Barry Siebert's position RARELY make untrue statements trying to influence the markets.  They have had it beaten out of them by the SEC.  In almost every other investment he runs beside bitcoin, he could go to jail for making such a statement if it is not true.  If he is saying it I believe it to be true.

you have to keep in mind that all the big guys coming into bitcoin at $500-$1000 will want at least 10-15x returns before they cash out, so yeah $10,000 is v real. Doubt about Q1 but towards the end of 2014 v likely.

LOL @ Op.... tagging this thread so I can laugh at ur face for being way off. Q1 2014? gtfo... probably 2015-2016 at the earliest

that's not how you calculate the increase of stock value.

you have to look at the market debt.

Right now, with the current available orders, you'd need:

$4.87 Million to bring Mt. Gox (USD) to 10,000
$6.06 Million for bitstamp
the other markets don't have any sell orders for $10,000 so they'd need to create sell orders in that range.

So theoretically you could place a market order with ~10 Million dollars and increase the bitcoin price to $10,000 on Mt. Gox and bitstamp, but it would quickly decrease due to arbitrage.
Note that this is purely theoretical, and also the price will most likely crash when there is not enough support to keep the market stable.
to buy up all the coins at all other exchanges you may need over 100 million, but still not anywhere near  120 billion.

There are two options

In 2015, for 1 bitcoin will

1) to give more than $ 100,000

2) will beat face  ;D

I doubt about the minimum 10-15x requirements, big guys knows +50% in short time is enought.

$10,000 next year wont happen I guess

I think you should ask for tips from now because if your prediction come true you 'll get 10 times lower tips  :P

$10,000 would make Bitcoin roughly 1/4 the size of AAPL in market cap -- I don't think it's unrealistic at all to imagine Bitcoin being worth more than one quarter of a single company at some point... What would QQ have become had the Chinese government not intervened? Bitcoin ftw!

I would love to see OP's predictions come true. But reality is usually different from expectations.

Sure if you're right I'll tip

But you have to send me a PM, if it reaches $10,000+ by Q1 of 2014, you must send me a PM and link to this thread and include your BTC address again, then I will tip you.

Deal.

hahahahaha

Chinese government just told what is obvious already. About the $10,000: definitively will happen, because Bitcoin can take nice share of payment systems pie, but more likely in 2016

To break the previous ATH of 1240$ would require about 27M$ plus resistance. While the bid side isn't looking bad yet,
those 27M$ are 73% of the 37M$ total bids on Gox. With little new money coming to the exchanges, it's not going to happen.
Wave C has to finish, then a new market cycle can begin, but historical data shows those have been failed bull markets, and
only after several months a fully developed bull market will succeed and possibly drive the price to a new ATH.

I agree, we will see about 1000$ for next few months before new panic buy happens somewhere. Bitcoin is interesting, indeed

Wrong! We are not at 10k!

We are 19/365 into 2014

Bitcoin has a funny way of plateauing for a month or two and then increasing by 4 or 5 times in a very short period of time.  Look at April and November of last year.  So wait until the end of March and then come back and say "wrong."

It could still happen, or should I say will probably happen.  I think it is highly likely to be $10,000 by May at least!

LOL! Although I'd rather it didn't happen until after the FBI has sold all of its coins! Irony ftw!

Agreed, be very careful, bitcoin tends to crash up

http://www.suxorz.com/images/2014/01/20/gQ6N4.png

numbers first, talk second

$10,000 by July 2014  ;)

Probably $5-6k before April 2014.

P.S.: Yes, I was wrong with my bearish calculations. Now I'm bullish  ;)

$820 today. $820 tomorrow. $820  April 2014. $820 July 2014. $820 Jan 2015.

I'm HODLING until April 2014  8)

compare this thread to this one:


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=129169.0



with the change of  +15312.04% in the last 24 months it is really hard to follow the nay-sayers arguments. most likely guys who have sold too much too early and now want the price down, so they get some of their tearful losses back. why would somebody persistantly post that bitcoin is doomed given the outstanding performance in reality. if one thinks bitcoin is doomed, he would sell and leave this forum. the only motivation to keep posting "bitcoin will never reach..." , "the end is near" and so forth, here is the hope to be able to correct the stupid decision to sell in one of the most bullish markets of our days.

Someone is trying to impress the PBOC with stable prices.

Not impossible merely improbable
Doesn't mean I wouldn't rejoice if it did happen

Your numbers hurt my eyes.

Seriously your numbers don't make any sense whatsoever...

The only thing your numbers prove is that according to your statistics the United States market by itself contributed approximately $220 to the global value of Bitcoin on a specific 24 hour period. This is assuming your numbers are even based on any real observations...

No need to assume. http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL

Fair amount of btc being put down on this (since November last) on BitBet (http://bitbet.us/bet/635/1btc-10-000-usd/).

There's a good idea...go and coin flip or worse for your BTC.   ::)

Future might be given, but it tend to be unpredictable.

Luckybit FAILED

spread the word around now.

i just bet on NO, this is guranteed winner  :D

agreed:
https://i.imgur.com/eHbL8wA.png

I have started recently to have serious doubts that we will go higher than 1200, ever, or even ever again.

It seems 600 wil be forever.

The problem with Bitcoin is the lack of a reliable, safe, user-friendly infrastructure. Storing BTC safely is easy for nerds and tech geeks, but the Average Joe needs a user-friendly, simple interface provided by trusted third parties. Such third parties might never emerge in the Bitcoin world, thus preventing BTC from getting to the mainstream adoption phase. A lot of the third parties currently active in the BTC space, seem like a mixture of scammers, thieves and people unwilling or unable to provide enough security for the funds of their customers.

If BTC is co-opted by banksters/governments/regulators sometime in the future, a more reliable and user-friendly infrastructure might emerge -- and the price can perhaps start increasing again.

just wait until the Bitcoin Trezor is available!

Trezor uses Kris Henriksen in its marketing ...  ::)

Once we have an easy way to buy and store Bitcoins the demand will so far outweigh the supply that the price will go from $1000 to $10,000 within a matter of weeks.


No, I was Goxxed. I thought people learned their lesson in April 2013 and I was wrong.

I still stand by my statement that once we have an easy way to buy and store Bitcoins the demand will bring the price to $10,000 in a matter of weeks.

Whether or not we develop an easy way to buy and store Bitcoins prior to May is anyone's guess. If I'm wrong you can throw the pie at my face. If I'm right you can tip me. It's even not April yet and a lot can change very quickly.

I am from the future!
OP was right!
https://i.imgur.com/Dy7f1pG.png
::)

Yep we didn't forget  :D

It's amusing when someone is off with his predictions a bit but this one is fucking hilarious.

I knew there had to be an opposite thread somewhere on one end 10 dollars on the other end 10k

That isn't possible - he ran a computer simulation of every particle within the light cone of the earth.

Maybe by Q3 or Q4?  I haven't given up yet!  ;D