Bitcoin Forum

Hi everyone
First post, try not to be too hard on me.  :)

So, like everyone here I am interested in bitcoin and try to understand price fluctuations and dynamics.
I know trying to predict anything in this market is hazardous at best (/stupid?), but there is this illogical urge to try and find this proverbial (and mystical) crystal ball.

Anyway, the more I looked into the matter the more I realized bitcoin is a very special good indeed.
For the first time, I -as a westerner- have access to something that the average, middle-class Chineseman can also trade.
And this is new.
And if you look at volumes traded on chinese exchanges compared to exchanges based on USD, you realize that bitcoin depends much more on what the average Chineseman think that on what Joe-six-pack thinks.
Baidu murmurs bitcoin, the market stumbles. The FED, the euro central bank or Greenspan yell that bitcoin is crap, no effect.

So, all my previous reasoning and trying to understand bitcoin is founded on wrong hypothesis. I do not need to know what the average American bitcoin owner is going to do before Christmas to try to predict bitcoin price fluctuations...

SO...
What can be the effect of the Chinese new year on bitcoin ?
Chinese new year is (from what I understand) even bigger in China that Thanksgiving can be in America.

Can we expect some big trend before / after this date ?
(gift giving in bitcoin ? cashing bitcoins for holiday spendings ? ... ?)

Any thoughts ?

Have you looked at what happened last year by that time? Even if you don't for Bitcoin, maybe you can check it for other markets...

Well, I have found some studies that said that there IS a end-of-year effect on Chinese markets, just like western markets.
This effect does happen around Chinese new year.

As for the trend (up/down), I have checked a shanghai index but it is way too macro to deduce anything from that.
And I don't speak any Chinese so finding more precise information is not easy.

Anyway, I think that -as always- there is no magical way to predict a trend. But it might be interesting to reflect on / see the effect of Chinese new year on a new and global commodity.