Bitcoin Forum

Next month?  2? a year?  Speculate here..

I suspect it will begin to climb this week and sustain a positive trend through January.

Another major factor to consider is that here in the US we have another government shutdown looming in February...

I'm very confident that all cryptos will increase in demand after that.

I think overstock accepting it will give it a nice bump. But when the hedge funds move in to bitcoin in a large way it will go to the moon :D

What's your definition of skyrocket?  For me it skyrockets every few hours.

If you're asking when it's going to hit $5,000...well if you look at the charts, you'll see that price surges to about 400% of the previous high roughly 4 months after the last major retrace.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future success.

Thanks!  Do you believe the winkle twins that it will hit 40k?

Without a doubt.

The real question is what will happen to the price approaching January 31 2014 - the apparent deadline for RMB withdraws from Chinese exchanges

After that is anyone's guess.. the price will probably take a few hits along the way though as various governments and banks start to take a stance on it

They reached a deal on that so as of now it seems to be a nonissue. :-)

If only I knew! Get Christmas out of the way and think we'll see a steady increase from there.

This.

This is the real issue on the table for the next month.  Unfortunately I expect that it will go down, down down (or stay the same if other countries can support the price)... until Jan 31.   After that, its a fresh start for everyone.

I think I read that overstock wasn't planning to add it until mid year or later.

-BittBurger-

It all needs to start with a full capitulation on Bitstamp, acting on it's own without following btcchina. Volume needs to be found again at it's natural level, and then there needs to be a rise on consistently high volume also.

Bitcoin is still not mainstream. Once some big players get involved like PayPal, Ebay, etc. you will see it really take off. It could be next year or 2015 we'll see.

I would hope that buyers and sellers were rational enough to regard this as inevitable and plan accordingly. No doubt it'll make things wobble anyway.

I don't think that its very widely known that Chinese investors have been given until Jan 31 to get out of Bitcoin completely.

I randomly heard about it in a podcast, but have seen nobody discussing it here much.

No matter what buyers and sellers do on our end, we can't stop the potentially tens of thousands of Chinese who may "dump" their coins over the next 45 days.

What would happen then?  Price drop?

Question is, will $40k will be worth $40k when BTC arrives at $40k  ???

Honestly I'm not sure, but that's the assumption.

I guess it depends on how quickly.  How many people.  How many coins.

Is China still the thing propping us up?

Remember:  Before china we were at $150-200 pretty consistently.  

China took us from $200 to $1200 practically overnight.

Now remove China completely from the equation.   Will we go back to $200?

Its probable that a lot more people got in over the last 2 months.  Maybe enough to support a $300 price.  Maybe $400.   Maybe even $500.  

-B-

I thought it was China that brought us out of the silk road crash too.

That's not strictly correct. Jan 31 is when withdrawals from the exchanges through traditional means come to an end afaik. Chinese investors can still hold their bitcoins as long as they want, and trade on other exchanges if they have the ability to withdraw in other currencies. They can also buy and sell otc as much as they want. I would imagine, also, that the exchanges are busy trying to come up with solutions so they can continue to operate after that date.

It shouldn't be that bad. We have Gox opening worldwide transfers ( probably hoping to invite some Chinese). We have possible new exchange opening in the UK and one already up in India.

If china sells there will be people screaming "shut up and take my money" everywhere. Just ask yourself now - would I buy at $200? I sure would, which means it won't go that low.

After it has been smashed into the basement by the China wind down, and has spent a period of time trending in the doledrums.

Anyone who thinks that this China thing is over, or that Bitcoin 'doesn't need China', and that the China effect has been priced into the market at $500 is delusional imo.

A massive big glut of coins that WILL be getting sold on a Bitcoin exchange near you, and soon!


Yeah, cos you call the shots in this market!

What's to stop the chinese gov from deciding that btcchina is their Silk Road, shutting it down and seizing all the bitcoins on the exchange? If they do that, they could then wait a few months, half a year or whatever, declare bitcoin Good and have a lot of them handy.

Thankfully you don't. I've seen some of your predictions and they are all extremely sceptical and pessimistic. The glass is always half empty, right?

$300-450 is a good price for china not being able to buy coins.

No offense to India, but I have a handful of friends that live there and I have been told that majority of that country is very poor with a small middle class and a handful of the wealthy.  I don't think the majority would put to much into bitcoins.

YEAH BUT GUESS WHAT!!!

UP UNTIL NOW, I HAVE ALWAYS BEEN RIGHT!

The only time I have been wrong in a way that made me lose money, was when I was too optimistic. (buying crash at $550 instead of $400....I panic sold on bounce).


It is exactly these sort of places where the few who have money are looking to both hide and get their wealth the fk out the country.

Wealthy people in these countries are those who will have the biggest hard-ons for Bitcoin.

The price has never been stable. There is always a news event to send coins one way or the other. Just have to wait to see if the next is good or bad.

I worked overseas for 6 yrs and our company hired them as cheap labor. Lots of time and conversation with them (Hundreds of them coming and going over the 6 yrs), them mainly being from the South, East and West. Only a couple from the North. All of them, regardless of location, had about a nickle in their pocket. Very Poor! On top of being very poor they are also Very Tight with their money.
I don't see them being a power player like China... unless and only if they designed some mining machines that blow away whats out there now.

Agreed about India. It won't be India pushing the price up to new levels.

donations anyone for my great thread?   ;D

Crikey - there's subtle and there's ..... that ;)

2015

lol whoops

The Chinese Government won't shutdown the exchanges; they don't operate like that.  Next step, will be to shutdown CNY withdrawals from exchanges.  This has already been rumored. Do you remember the last rumor? The one about banning 3rd party payment processors.  Yeah, well that turned out to be true, and I believe this will as well. 

The end result will be an effective handcuffing of Chinese exchanges, without actually shutting them down.  The government doesn't want to seem hostile towards Bitcoin and make any new enemies, so they will say it is only temporary, however this is BS. 

This way they still comply with the Dec. 5th report, which states Bitcoin is a commodity that individuals are free to hold and trade.  How many will be left after this happens? Not many.  This will cause a short-term price crash on all exchanges.  Btc will effectively go underground after this point.

If anyone wants to understand the philosophy behind the Chinese governments attack on Bitcoin, I suggest you read "The Art of War" by Sun Tzu

It wasn't China who did it except for hype & marketing purposes. Loads of China's traffic was fake or artificially pushed with no fees policy. And loads of their legit traffic was coming from Westerners trading there.

China is used as hype to push the price up, it was, is and will always be The West who will make Bitcoin to shine. No CHina, India, Brazil or anyone can do for Bitcoin what one huge Wall Street Fund could do.

Much psychology. Many trade.

It wont sky rocket as long as im holding btc because I NEVER have good luck with money or get lucky when i invest. Sorry if I ruined it for everyone else

i went through the 'analysis never ends' thread and a lot of his predictions are scary good.  somehow i doubt he'll be gone for 2 years tho.

If you truly believed that you would have been trading the last few days instead of sitting it out.

Most of my play btc went this morning as my sell orders got pinged at 660-670 which I picked up not even 7 hours ago at $570. The rally may have some more legs but I'm betting that it will cycle back down again.

Seems to me from staring at the charts that although BTC China price is lower than MTGOX + BitStamp, China is still somewhat driving the markets. The rallys in China seem to push the mtgox/bitstamp prices up well before I see any movement there. Might be lags in my charts but whenever I see huge buys in china, stamp jumps up pretty shortly after.

Why would people here in China get rid of their Bitcoins if they feel that it might be more difficult to obtain them in the future?  I certainly would not sell and would be hoarding them instead!

I think the Chinese people that want to get rid have done so already. Hence the price has stabilised.  You are right. Just like in the west, there will be a lot of hoarders hoping the coins are worth a lot more in the future.

If you can't spend bitcoin due to the big Chinese firewall and your too poor to go abroad what are bitcoins worth?
You would hoard them but you are referring to a free country. China is not a free country.

The people that keep them either (1) can afford to go abroad, Chinese are the most prominent tourists on the planet now, or (2) are banking on other ways of converting them back to fiat, sometime in the future, or (3) just planning to keep them for a very long time :)

What empoweoqwj said.

Also, I live in China.  Firstly, the great China firewall cannot block p2p networks so I will always be able to send and receive Bitcoins.  Also, we have access to VPN.

Secondly, I can open a bank account abroad in just about any country in the world and wire funds from my account here in China to the offshore account.  

These government regulations are only a nuisance here.  Certainly not a Bitcoin killer.

With regards to the comments made to me by Evil Panda, I was calling a crash practically on the eve of the Nov $750 - $350...was bearish thereafter, until it became clearly obvious that BTC was coming right back. From this point until just after the double top, I was bullish. I have been bearish from $1000 all the way down, and have been getting trolled all the way down. I am still bearish, I am still getting trolled so I like to point out that generally, I have mostly been right up until now.

I can't see the future. I came to my computer expecting BTC to be at around $550, but against all my expectations and against the chart formations (that I was looking at), it was $660. Well I be damned! In most other financial assets, this would be a serious move. In Bitcoin it is a trifling, and for someone with my tolerance for loss and risk, the gains not really worthwhile.

When I first started calling ridiculous lows, I was butt hurt. Because of this, I missed out on gains which otherwise would have been obvious to me (they were obvious to me before I lost my nerve on a bearish pennant formation on bounce at sub $500). Until I admitted that to myself, my thinking with regards to Bitcoin was always going to be tainted. I am no longer sour. I have done very well on Bitcoin, I have nothing to cry about.

However, as I turned my mind back to Bitcoin with a view to investing further, ready to accept that the bottom was in and to look for good buying opportunities, it became very clear to me that Bitcoin must go much lower, saving for some highly unlikely U-Turn from the Chinese. I have no idea when this will happen but presumably before Jan 2014 is out. I will also not pretend that this 'clarity' came out about as a result of rigorous chart analysis and studying of fundamentals, as the prediction was definitely more of the intuitive sort. Whilst I don't expect my gut instincts to influence anyone else's investment decisions they are certainly going to influence mine.

Although China is lower, it is clear that it is still the market maker and why wouldn't it be? Every Bitcoin investor in the world is aware that BTC China represents a massive glut of coins that will/could be hitting an exchange somewhere near you, and soon. What China does is as good a near term indicator as any  MACD or RSI, and as always with herd mechanics, the more who believe that this is the case, the truer it will be.

Why wouldn't the Chinese keep their coins, knowing that they won't have a chance to buy them with CNY again?

Man you really have some sixth sense working for you there!  ::)

Well.

I think you shall find that most on here were talking about when Bitcoin was taking out $1500, when I was selling $1100 coin at $1000, in order to have the funds ready for buy-in between $600 - $700, which on this occasion, I caught sweetly.

I am not saying that I am some kind of market sage, but compared to the majority on here, I am Warren fkn Buffet.

I am going to go and check your post history, but I am pretty sure that you were a 'coming crash denier' when Bitcoin was at around $800, shortly before it plummeted to $380. I wasn't, but I did let the bullshit I read on these pages dampen my near term pessimism towards Bitcoin and aimed too high ($550), costing myself dear.

EDIT: FOUND ONE!

(actually, I found a lot more than one....but what a difference a day makes eh?)


Given your track record and your present tone, you are making me seriously consider double digit figures in the near future.

Ha ha! I just meant the way you phrased it "bullish until just after the double-top"... sounds obvious, get it?

But if you want to talk seriously about predicting bitcoin price movements... I admit it - it's a fair cop - I'm pretty crap at it!

Yeah...to me it was obvious.

But apparently not to 80% of the 'HODL' phrase using retards on this forum.

If you want to go find someone on here with an uncanny ability for pulling Bitcoin predictions out of his dreams n shit like that, go and search for a poster called zukool (or something like that).

Bitcoin was charging up towards its first $1200 top when he came out and stated he had dreams where Bitcoin was back trading in $200 range. Sounded inconceivable at the time, but we got pretty close to that already and if William Hill (I assume you are from UK, Scottish even?) were taking bets on Bitcoin prices, I don't think that you would get great odds by betting on Bitcoin to hit $200 range before Jan 2014 is out.

Q1 2014

The rich in India will have a major impact. The poor will do what they can to hang on.

There is nothing stopping 200 million Indians from buying into sub-1 BTC quantities of Bitcoin ... however this will not do a thing to increase its overall price.

Because of BTC's nearly infinite divisibility, theoretically an entire country could buy in mBTC's at a price of $650 and the value wouldn't go up even $1 USD.

What exchange will the Indian rich use? Is it easy to wire money in and out of India or are their restrictions like China?

https://buysellbitco.in/. I don't know much about Indian currency controls.

Thanks. There is certainly plenty of money in the Indian middle classes. Perhaps they will join in on the next "boom". I certainly don't see them causing it.

Kind of telling that you don't consider the possibility that it may never do so again.

The short history of bitcoin tells us it doesn't take much to set off a "boom". So the chances of it never happening again are highly unlikely.

To me this feels a lot like it did after the first boom.

price shot up to 30, came back to ten, some people didn't want to believe it was over and it came back to around 15? and then down to 2.

I remember some pretty sobering times while the price just festered in the five dollar range.

Just to put up a guess, I think we are looking forward to an awkwardly long time in the 400-600 range. I would guess we won't see the next "skyrocket" until May 5 2014.

Love the "May 5" bit - got a problem with May 4? ;)

May 5 is Monday  :)

Gotcha :)

There was a thread on the forum about an exchange in India that had just launched. 

Guarav Burman is also bringing an exchange to India that will have credibility. 

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/internet/dabur-scion-gaurav-burman-bites-into-bitcoins/articleshow/27574053.cms


Don't you think it would be better for the future of Bitcoin to have 200 million people invest $1 each into Bitcoin rather than one person invest $200 million?  How would the price not move in either case?

It could take decades for 200 million people to invest $1 each. That's the only downside.

I was moreso questioning BittBurger's remark that price would not move if large populations bought only small quantities of Bitcoin.  Of course you would be dreaming if you thought an Indian exchange would suddenly have 200 million users.  Mt. Gox only reached 1 million users just a few days ago.

How many users does btcchina have?  I'm pretty sure it's not even close to 1 million.  Even at 1 million, that would still be less than 0.1% of the population here.

People will never be bothered to register and buy at exchanges. However, 2014 would be the year of bitcoin ATMs being installed in hundreds around the world. That would help general public chip in, the first ever did over 1mil dollar business in just one month.

Agreed. ATM machines installed in as many locations in as many countries as legalities allow will drive adoption, not dodgy web exchanges which few people appear to like in any way.

Yes, totally.  First one did 1 mil in the first month?  That's awesome!

I've been meaning to do a bit more research into what I'd need to do to set some up here in China.  Hearing this, I should probably get moving on it.

http://www.coindesk.com/robocoin-bitcoin-atm-cad1m-29-days/

It's not as simple as buy one and install one; you have to already have some weight in local business circles to even start discussions with atm manufacturers. Being able to rent a good place for installation is most important.

I have retail locations available in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen already.  Also, I can't imagine the hardware being that difficult to acquire here.  What I'm interested in is exactly how the transaction is performed and at what premium to the buyer.  As long as it can be tied in directly to an exchange to avoid any exposure to the volatile market on my part, seems like a no-brainer.

Either way, will research this.

It's SuuKool...and thank you. Bitcoin is going UP not down.