Bitcoin Forum

I personally love bitcoin but can't see any incentive to buy, buy, buy as some people shout in here.

I am still bearish and I invite other bears to a nice, argumented conversations. I would also invite bulls, if they can hold themselves with the "buy,buy,buy" thing. I understand that they have to manipulate psychologically, or at least to try but... Enough is enough.

Here are my reasons for the lower price that will come:

1. It's the middle of the week. Historically, people trade more actively.
2. It's just a little spike from the low of $6.12
3. Bitcoin had a tremendous year but it's price will go low. Not very low, I expect 4-5 USD. Prices of $1-2 are insane, I'd buy 1000, so would others and well be at 30 in no time.

the secret of getting back up to $30 is to go back down to $1  ;D

Are we reading the same forum??!?!?!?!!  ???

November, February, and June are the strongest examples of a repeated pattern, namely a drop to the logarithmic half of the peak and a plateau four time longer than the rise.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?s=2010-10-07&e=2010-10-24&noheader=1&height=50&width=720&m=mtgoxUSD&i=Hourly&c=1&l=1&t=W
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?s=2010-10-12&e=2011-01-14&noheader=1&height=100&width=720&m=mtgoxUSD&i=Daily&c=1&l=1&t=W
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?s=2011-01-21&e=2011-04-17&noheader=1&height=100&width=720&m=mtgoxUSD&i=Daily&c=1&l=1&t=W
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?s=2011-02-14&e=2012-04-01&noheader=1&height=100&width=720&m=mtgoxUSD&i=Daily&c=1&l=1&t=W

stagnate
stagnate
stagnate
stagnate
rise?

Yeah, something like that. Or drop, stagnate, slide, rise, peak, drop, stagnate, slide, rise, peak...

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?s=2010-09-15&e=2011-10-01&noheader=1&height=200&width=720&m=mtgoxUSD&i=Daily&c=1&l=1&t=W

Too many Bitcoins...

The fire sale at the beginning of August dropped to way below 6 (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2011-08-07zeg2011-08-08zvztgSzm1g10zm2g25) - this time it stopped at 6.12.  That makes me slightly optimist. 

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?s=2011-02-14&e=2011-04-05&noheader=1&height=100&width=720&m=mtgoxUSD&i=Daily&c=1&l=0&t=W

I'd love to get a snapshot of all posts on this forum during the first week of April and compare that to the first week of June. This forum would be a great study in the euphoria-bubble-despair cycle.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?s=2011-04-01&e=2011-06-09&noheader=1&height=100&width=720&m=mtgoxUSD&i=Daily&c=1&l=0&t=W

Do you guys see the way I'm seeing the recent price spikes from 6.12 to 7.59?

I believe that these spikes will get smaller and smaller on the way to $5, even lower. I mean, hard to believe that there will be a low 4, and then a high 5.5.

Lao Tzu say

Price cascade like gentle water fall over rocks
Like path of Coin bouncing down staircase
   Big curve and small
   Morning like evening; Summer and fall
Embrace Log chart
This is Way of Coin

http://genaud.net/bitcoin/2011/20110908-2030.png