Bitcoin Forum

It looks like Bitcoin is building up one of the biggest sell signals ever. We have been at this levels before and it has always rebounded. This time it looks like it will break through and because it has been a strong support level, when we are through it, it will be a massive sell signal. I think some few desperate people still trying to fight it back and have some solid buy orders (not as before when most of the buy orders disappear as soon as someone is selling in to it) at this levels, but they are fighting all the greedy miners that are selling their coins at the exchanges, right now that maximum amount is 7200 x 6 = 43000 dollars / day . The problem as I have told before is that Bitcoin is in high inflation environment, the boom came to fast and we are stuck in this environment for at least one more year. My prediction of 3-4 dollars seems to get right within a month or two.

SELL SELL SELL!!!!

And this should be at Bitcoin Discussion. It is to important of an event. I am guessing not many people know about the support level.

Uh, it's not exactly rocket science to look at that big wall at 5.95 and the historical 5.8.

Where would you get your coins to buy and sell without us greedy miners?   :P

Let me see, we have already 7 + million coins in the Bitcoin Economy. We need miners that believe in the Bitcoin Economy long term, not greedy miners that hit the exchanges with sell orders asap.

Keep dreaming. 90% of all miners don't give a shit about bitcoin and just want quick profit.

Bitcoin mining viruses utilize OpenCL now days, so legitimate miners have to compete with someone who gets it almost for free. EDIT: there is still cost involved for updating and spreading virus.

It is quite perfect really. A coin that gets mostly used by scammers and illegal activities will also be mined illegally.

As compared to the greedy buyers and sellers, or the greedy hoarders?

I wouldn't have spent so much of my time developing my system if I wasn't in it for the long term.  :)

Duke, that is exactly the hole point, they WILL GIVE A SHIT when they don't mine with a profit. The hole problem is that Bitcoin is inflating at a very high rate, the miners have to much power over the price of Bitcoin, the only way to stop that is to do what they are doing to the Bitcoin Economy. Stop them from making easy money. I have said this from the very beginning, look at my old posts, maybe someone understands this...

How do you make them not make easy money? You sell bitcoins you are holding so that they have to sell with a smaller profit, it you don't sell the miners will sell instead of you, why? Because we are in a high inflation environment.

No they won't. They will shut down their rigs and turn away. The few that remain will get more bitcoins per person, giving each of them even more influence on the market.
Why it is bad that a lot of coins are concentrated on a small number of people I don't think I need to explain to you, right?

I don't believe that, when the profits are gone we will have mostly miners that want Bitcoin to get big long term, and there are a lot of them. And also, this high inflation environment is a one time thing, it will be over in Dec of 2012.

Wait why...ohhh, LOLOL :)

.

Are you a greedy miner ? :)

How does that 6 dollar exchange rate feel? I think you will feel really good with a 3-4 dollar exchange rate.

lol go mine at a loss for a while haha

I comfort the loss of virtual cash by the acquisition of knowledge. I mean, I'm mining BTC mainly to learn how to code up my videocard with OpenCl.
Them knowledge be a true value up in here.

I was referring to the 2012 snippet.

a break below 5.74$ will very likely open the floodgates for a crash-type selloff

I'll enjoy it.  I pay just under $ .05 per kW now.  Unless BTC goes below $1, I'm profitable.  All the price-pullback does is cut off my competition.  I'd like to thank everyone for decreasing the difficulty and letting me get all the BTC.  Drive the price down, I just make more money...

I feel this is a very rude attempt at manipulating the price and should be moved to the speculation forum asap.

I'd also like to add that recently I've started to be suspicious of analyst S3052, he seems to be fairly heavily invested in the price dropping because he is weighing in on more threads than usual and "confirming" the bad scenarios. Makes me think of his motives in general, he is doing a very popular analysis which certainly effects the price in itself.

I am just trying to offer technical analysis to help people making informed bitcoin trading decisions .
typically , this forum is biased with UP UP UP talks (see Bruce ...)
and it is important to also show some balanced views.
some people could protect their savings if they sold before.

Personally, I do not have any interest in falling bitcoin prices, I would prefer rising bitcoin prices. But it is important to leave emotions aside when investing / trading.

Yeah, me too. I don't want Bitcoin to fall so I can get more.

OHAI! It'is technomage, who yesterday stated that the price would NEVER drop below $6. :D :D

You must be new to this very forum ;)
At least half of the messages in here are "crash", "sell" and "bitcoin is worthless", in other words it seems a lot of people try to drive the price down.

based on the sentiment polls, only 40% of forum members see the bitcoin price down.
beginning of august it was more than 60%.
the current sentiment is not bearish enough to believe in a sustainable low at currentvalues.

Ok, start buying then! ;)

2484.95 btc sold @ 5.95 !

BTC just sailed through your barrier, then $5.50 and now $5.40.  lets see how your prediction holds!

DOWN!! YES!! 1 DOLLAR!!

Maria.

Aaaand it's gone. (http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/222624/the-importance-of-saving-money)

I wonder what's the next "resistance price".

Again,  we print too many coins :(

Where do you get those numbers?

Print too many or simply not trade enough in BTC.... I'm getting bored of saying this but bitcoin is supposed to be "worth" what someone will trade for it.... its dollar value is only an interface to other currencies as miners cant pay their electricity bills with btc and people can not easily be paid in btc (by that I mean their day job does not pay them in btc)

Yes well reality sucks for people when the trend is opposite their expectation.  ;)

Technically we could easily go under $1.00. It will be very interesting to see how many keep mining as we drop here. The trend is definitely down.

I will now be mining at a loss but I will keep mining. I'm in this for the long haul and will accept the "investment cost" of electricity. When I was buying silver I was parting with cash and now the metal just sits there for future use. The risk is MUCH higher for the BTC though.

Your analysis is appreciated.

Speculation is easier and more profitable than mining. And speculators have too much power over the price of Bitcoin, not miners. Hence the concept of "moving the market." As for inflation, it is the way it is, and it is so by design. Everyone knows it, there is nothing unexpected about it, so it can't really be a problem - it's simply the reality.

Many people know about it, but far from all of them really understands it. The concept of a high inflation environment is hard to grasp.

I did not. I stated it's unlikely for the price to drop below $6, but it obviously did. And I said that a stable price of below $5 is pretty much impossible in the current situation. I will admit I'm wrong if we see the price stay below $5 for more than 24 hours.

Now the question is did we bottom at $4.80 or not. Interesting times.

*whew* good thing bitcoins are designed as a means of exchange and not an investment

The whole "price can't fall bellow X because miners will do Y" line of thought is flawed. If the price falls, the most inefficient miners will start to go offline, as they sink more and more underwater. The decrease in difficulty will make the remaining miners more profitable, so an equilibrium will be reached. The same happens if the price increases, new miners come online and eat up the large profit margin, leaving only those with the thinnest margins or the best technology.

The price can fall very nicely bellow 4$, 1$, 0.1$ and any such arbitrary limit because it's only supported by the interest of people buying into the currency, at a rate at least equal with the mining rate. If miners hoard instead of selling  it makes no difference: they are effectively Bitcoin buyers, they buy with the resources used for mining which as explained above have a financial value very close to the market price.

So you tell me, what is the net buy-in Bitcoin will see each month ? If you got that you can easily compute the market price:
- 1 million $/ month -> 5$/BTC
- 200K $/ month -> 1$/BTC
etc.

In order to sustain that price you need to have consistent buy-in month after month. There's simply not enough going on in the bitcoin economy to warrant such large positive cash inflows. It's a currency used, literally, only by the members of this forum. Maybe a few thousands - tens of thousand dollars a month, leading to a BTC price in the pennies range. We have a long way down people.

Ah, so that’s why there’s a 21 mil cap.

LOL! You are so right. Ever since I wrote that I've been thinking about it..... Why would I depreciate my gear when I could take the cash and buy MORE BTC?

Difficulty is going to plummet. I'd say I'll have the miners shut down for maybe a month.

It was about time that those 'greedy miners' would panic and sell off all their bitcoins.
Now the crime syndicates can buy them and start doing their business with it.
Expect the price to rise soon after the crash!  ;D

Alright, we all need to do a better job understanding Bitcoin inflation, and educating others about it.  This would prevent lots of misunderstandings that are costly to those who misunderstand it.

When the priced breached the sub $6 low (~$5.74 or whatever the blow off trade bottom was)*, I expect the next major bottom/sell off point** to be $4.13.

* I was not expecting that low to be taken out.
** A trader's schizophrenia.

YMMV.

Smart Money Drives the Financial Markets? ~Tom Williams: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jwEwlZnSFY

That would be scraping the trendline. However fear is strong right now and if the panic increases we could reach 3.24 I wouldn't bet on it but it could happen.

PS: yeah it's me green-line guy  :D

Nonsense.  Bitcoin doesn't need miners to write blank cheques for it to survive.  If the price was $0.01 or $100 it would not make much difference, what matters is volatility.  Why would anyone care what the absolute level is?  What matters is that they can easily transfer btc into real currency and back, so that there is little or no market risk when making transactions.  The problem we have had is the transition from hobbyist miners who 'hoard' bitcoins to professional miners who sell as they mine.  The price will naturally converge to the rate at which investors put money in divided by the rate bitcoins are mined.  No problemo.  Why all the angst?