Bitcoin Forum

This is panic selling, pure and simple.  Highest volume since June.  Panic is the reason people are selling at these prices in such high numbers.  Keep up the good work in this forum scaring people into thinking bitcoin has no future.  At these prices, we should see a reduction in hashing power.

the real world doesn't take this forum seriously, buy buy buy or sell sell sell on here has never caused anything.

i am tired to see it falling.. but there is no much space to fall left... just 4-5 $ down so that everybody is sure it is already at the bottom...  and start a new rally! )

It's not "panic" selling at all. People have large amounts of BTC in them and want to get rid of it before the price drops further... That seems pretty rational to me?

Today, we'd like to welcome you
to the funeral of wack motherfuckers worldwide
your days are numbered
And everybody wants to be there
but no one wants to stay around
'cause everybody feels defeated

http://youtu.be/fYDfjcOQ-eU

panic selling right before the anticipated drop in weekend selling. let the market and its gyrations take its course

This is great news for people looking to get into bitcoin.

Eventually, miners have to decide whether they want to keep the price up or leave. And I would never mind if GPU miners leave in flocks, my mining rig is there and ready.

For the past few months bitcoin has only moved up on low volume, and has moved down sharply on high volume. Bubble deflation, that's all. The price was far far beyond what could fundamentally be supported in terms of the state of the available clients, the current acceptance/usefulness of bitcoins, and the extremely high inflationary period we are in right now

$5.50ish is the bottom I called a few months ago, and I still think it is likely we will settle at $4-$6 for awhile, but we may see some drops back into the $2s and $3s at some point

This is a good analysis. But I do think the bubble will have deflated after this latest crash, we're pretty much at or near the numbers the Bitcoin economy can fundamentally sustain.

I think that's true, I don't see it hanging around in the $2-$3 range for very long.

It was mentioned somewhere else that this could be "professional" investors just flushing out the boom-of-miners of their coins.  I'm inclined to believe this because 1) I only started ~20 days ago, 2) I was thinking the same thing.  Granted that's an optimistic scenario.

On the other hand, the price is trying to get itself back on track after the bubble. I doubt the (4?) upcoming Bitcoin Conferences are going to be cancelled.  They'll be investing in the system, not the dollar amount its currently tied too. IMO, everyone worth their weight who has sold the last few days are -still- watching the market.  That money isn't just *poof* gone forever.

No. The difficulty adjustment will ensure that some miners can make a profit at nearly any price. Lower prices drive miners out, difficulty ramps down, mining becomes profitable for miners remaining, more miners jump in, difficulty rises, mining becomes unprofitable, miners leave. It's a balancing feedback loop that is always in play, it makes no difference what the price is. I have no frigging clue why after a year of this we still have people insisting that the "cost of mining" somehow affects the price of bitcoins.

There is a minimum cost of running a mining rig which doesn't linearly scale with the difficulty factor.

that makes no difference. when it isn't profitable, people leave, difficulty adjusts. when it is profitable, people join, difficulty adjusts. sunk costs, changes in price of electricity, CPU vs GPU vs ASIC vs botnet, etc etc etc all may effect which miners are mining, but difficulty is simply an indicator of price+technology, it does not drive price.

Darwin.

Yeah it may not be profitable at the moment, but assuming the price rebounds I will have mined during these "off-periods" and will end up with more BTC in my wallet when their value goes back up. "Fair-weather" miners will shut down their systems because BTC is not profitable RIGHT NOW and will have less BTC to show for it.

Actually, if miners instead take the same amount of $ that they would spend on electricity and buy bitcoins, they come out ahead of where they were if they had kept mining (once price falls below their cost level).

Real world example: I make about 3 btc per day at current difficulty. It costs me ~$18/day to run my miners. It is cheaper for me to purchase 4 bitcoins at $4.25 each than it is to pay $18 in electricity and get 3 bitcoins. It would take a significant number of miners to drop off the network before any substantial gains are made in the quantity of bitcoins being mined. Of course that carries its own problems if that happens (see: namecoin)

^This.   not to mention buying ATI cards.

I sold most of my bitcoins today - this was a carefully considered decision as far as I am concerned. I now have dollars and can use them to buy bitcoins whenever I choose.

Scaring people, or warning them since several months ago that bitcoin is a highly speculative, high risk investment?

I'm glad I sold them all over a week ago when the price was 10.70 and 8.40.

Well, I'm holding what I have for the time being.  I do believe this is a panic sell and we will see a rebound.  How far, I'm not sure, but given the volumes that have been traded, there's just a lot of people who have been scared of the recent price drops and sold in a panic.

We'll see...

I really hope that price will stay under 4 eur until next week. Its Friday evenning here, so my bank transfer will not be finished sooner than tuesday. But I am worreid that I have missed it once again :) How I wish international bank transfers could be finished under hour...

"Panic Selling" my ass.

Like many people i held on for quite a while. Too long, in fact. Yesterday i saw <= $5 coming by this weekend & decided to sell @ just below $7. At a loss, mind you.

I don't understand how people ignored the gorilla in the room this long. I've pretty much lost faith in the community policing themselves.

People on this forum seem unconsciously addicted to drinking their own piss flavored koolaid.

I might buy in again later down the road but i wasn't about to ride this shit into the ground.

i thought ~$10 - $11 would be a stable market, but it looks more like $5 now.

I keep repeating myself, I know, but I still didn't get an answer that "computes"...

People sell, panic abounds, prices are going down, people sell even more, price goes even further down, all of that is fine but... who is buying? Are we really that convinced that hitting almost 1M$ in volume on mtgox alone, it's just people SELLING? c'mon, if it was a panic driven bank run, all the buyers of have removed their bids, and that is far far away from the truth.

Bid walls go back, but that sounds more like "I can use the panic sales momentum and increase my profit" than "bitcoins are worthless! let me do the intelligent thing and, huh, buy 10k$ of them at $4 instead of $5"

I mean, c'mon, for every bitcoin sold there's a bitcoin bought, and I'm sure a bunch of them are from speculators that do swing trading, but again, to do swing trading you don't just buy bitcoins, you need to sell them, someone else has to buy them :)

Thanks for the crash course into day trading.

Do I sense a little irony there? :D

I didn't mean to give you an 101 introduction to anything, I'm a coder not a trader and I just don't understand why the buying side of the trades keep getting ignored on these panic stricken posts all over the place. I HONESTLY need someone to explain that to me, and you're not the one with your reply, I'm afraid.

Keep sending postcards, though, you may win someday!

I never understood this logic myself. The only way I can think of how mining cost could influence price is if miners would just refuse to sell below a certain price (their mining cost times x). Or put differently: The supply lessens if price goes lower. While this is probably true, I still don't see how mining cost could drive the price up. If power cost suddenly doubled, bitcoin markets couldn't care less. Miners don't usually buy bitcoins, they mine and sell or mine and hold.

True. But it might have a psicological effect. For example, there are some miners that will sell at any price as soon as they get some bitcoins, but seing that now it does not even cover their electricity bill they might decide to hold or at least set a minimum price at which they will sell.

That logic is flawed. If power cost is higher than the value of the BTC produced, it's simply more profitable to just buy BTC instead of mining them.

This is only rational to the extent that it's rational to think prices will keep falling. When the vast majority of traders believe they have to get out *now* because prices will just keep falling, or because they just can't take the pain of their losses anymore, usually this is when some kind of bottom is put in (but it may only be a short term bottom). Given how much the price has already fallen, it's getting less rational to believe that it will keep falling. Even if bitcoin is doomed to fail, the price isn't going step down linearly to zero.

Glad i cashed out at 14, i'll buy back at 0.00001 cents :)

I agree with molecular, but that's not the whole picture; I have a two month billing cycle, so I mine now and pay up to 60 days from now. Lots of time to convert to cash at the best rates (when the market isn't plummeting) and even do a little speculation of my own. No new 'out of pocket' money unless I'm mining at really large loss, bitcoins pay for it all, all the time.

Of course if I'm mining at a loss then the 60 day buffer with get me and I'll end up with 60 days of used electricity I don't have the bitcoins to pay, because I used the ones produced in the last cycle to pay the previous one...

Uuuuh. You're living on the edge there. It's probably an arrogant thing to say, but one should always have some buffers of liquidity ready for such cases. If you had that, you could make more money or in a safer way or both, right?

Ahm, I was role playing there, just making my point :) But thanks for the concern, though, glad to see a positive advice coming from that instead of the more usual immediate bashing and public humiliation approach we see on the forum these days. Cookie points to you :)

Did I just got told nicely that I fell for a troll? *munches his cookie in shame*

Who ever said I needed to get your approval to explain anything.

Keep telling yourself those things.

I blame this funny video for all the panic selling:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjV3wdXDHDk&feature=player_embedded

The best part of this is the "BOOOOM" part.

that's pretty good  ;D

I am not all that sure why you are calling me a troll, but I hope the cookie was good :)

Ooohhh, dramatic are we? I said no such thing, not to myself nor to you. What I said is: I asked a question, you answered "you are a stupid moronic knowitall" which is a valid point, but makes no attempt to answer the question asked in the first place.

And how do you know I talk to myself? *looks around for the hidden cams*

Now look who is misquoting.

Someone has issues....  ::)

Well, I wasn't sure, I am a bit naive and inexperienced at troll detection. Didn't mean to call you a troll, that's why I phrased it as a question. No harm done, I hope?

I enjoyed the cookie, thanks.

Heh, yeah, right. Forgot the context:


This was your reply to my question on why do the panic sale threads always ignore that these high volume sales have to have a high volume buy counterpart. I assumed from the reply that you were being ironic, sarcastic or simply an ass. If none of these options is correct and you were really thanking me for the crash course then, hmmm, you have bigger issues than I do.

On the other hand if it was actually any of the 3 options described, then I can safely say that your quoted reply can be read as


Wouldn't you agree? On second thought you probably won't, because that's your thing... I respect that, we have to be consistent with our internet selfs. As an example, if you follow my post history you'll find that some 50% of my post are attempts at comic irony, all ending in disastrous misunderstandings. People here take other people too seriously but again as long as we keep it consistent...

No harm done, and I guess the fact I just took this thread and steered it into something completely unrelated might actually prove you right. You certainly deserved the cookie!

Someone reads too much in between the lines.  ::)

so wait...what were we talking about again...?  ;D

It is official, then. I am a troll.

As an attempt at getting cured I will now step away from my keyboard and not touch any of the keys for a couple of hours. I'll come back to some random thread and tell everyone how that felt :)

You will be a troll +2-3 hours older.

Who are you to tell me how I will feel!!!!

OOOPS....

*runs to safe, dark corner*

How old you are has nothing to do with feelings.

You're never gonna get out of that vicious cycle. I'm sorry I got you into this mess. Here's a cookie to help make up for it.