Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Nagle on September 09, 2011, 05:19:18 PM



Title: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Nagle on September 09, 2011, 05:19:18 PM
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=90&i=&c=0&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0
Bitcoin/USD, last 3 months. Any questions?

Bitcoin is over. If you're not out, get out. The last ones to leave will be the worst off.

I've been saying for months that this was a speculative bubble, a pyramid scheme. I said that when bubbles pop, they pop all the way. There were replies like "troll" and "hater".  "The bitcoin's value will inevitably increase." (Bazil). "Regular use of Bitcoins will pick up pace, it's inevitable." (Goodlord666). There are still people writing comments like that.

I was right. You were wrong. Now suffer.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: pekv2 on September 09, 2011, 05:20:24 PM
NO


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: johnj on September 09, 2011, 05:21:18 PM
There were replies like "troll" and "hater". 

...


I was right. You were wrong. Now suffer.

Gee I wonder why you got those replies   ::)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: bitcon on September 09, 2011, 05:21:25 PM
anyone got a chart to post on the recent stock market crash?


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: wee baby seamus on September 09, 2011, 05:23:31 PM
NO

excellent point, well rounded with facts and citations that clearly demonstrate a full and complete understandi


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: fcmatt on September 09, 2011, 05:23:56 PM
The amount of BTC being offered for sale at 5.25 is just staggering. It truly dwarfs the amount of
money wanting into BTC. Just two weeks ago people would have loved to buy at that price but now
no one wants to touch them.

How can the price possibly recover when people do not want to buy, and even if they do buy,
the amount of cash to bring the price back up to 7 is ridiculous.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: wee baby seamus on September 09, 2011, 05:25:33 PM
There were replies like "troll" and "hater".  

...


I was right. You were wrong. Now suffer.

Gee I wonder why you got those replies   ::)

+1

what are you +1ing? nagle is objectively correct.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: bitcon on September 09, 2011, 05:25:51 PM
NO

i can see how someone got up to their 464 post sr. member status.  


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: iprivately on September 09, 2011, 05:28:47 PM
yes, please, everyone get out so I can buy MOOOOOOOR  ;D


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on September 09, 2011, 05:30:18 PM
The amount of BTC being offered for sale at 5.25 is just staggering. It truly dwarfs the amount of
money wanting into BTC. Just two weeks ago people would have loved to buy at that price but now
no one wants to touch them.

How can the price possibly recover when people do not want to buy, and even if they do buy,
the amount of cash to bring the price back up to 7 is ridiculous.



Why buy at $7 if you can buy at $5.25?
Why buy at $5.24 if you can buy at $4?
Why buy at $4 if you can buy at $3?
.
.
.
People are going to keep pressing their luck until someone decides it's time to buy big, and the procrastinators lose out big time.


The big dogs could bring the price up to $10 right now if they wanted to, which means double the value than $5.25 for them. Saw someone with a 17,000 btc bid at 5.25 earlier.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: coined on September 09, 2011, 05:33:18 PM
The amount of BTC being offered for sale at 5.25 is just staggering. It truly dwarfs the amount of
money wanting into BTC. Just two weeks ago people would have loved to buy at that price but now
no one wants to touch them.

How can the price possibly recover when people do not want to buy, and even if they do buy,
the amount of cash to bring the price back up to 7 is ridiculous.



Why buy at $7 if you can buy at $5.25?
Why buy at $5.24 if you can buy at $4?
Why buy at $4 if you can buy at $3?
.
.
.
People are going to keep pressing their luck until someone decides it's time to buy big, and the procrastinators lose out big time.


The big dogs could bring the price up to $10 right now if they wanted to, which means double the value than $5.25 for them. Saw someone with a 17,000 btc bid at 5.25 earlier.

you back in now?  :o


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Jixtreme on September 09, 2011, 05:35:54 PM
Or.... everyone wants in, but at a lower price...

Like GeniuSxBoY said, there are people out there ready to buy BIG into Bitcoin. The question is where.

Don't blink.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: bitcon on September 09, 2011, 05:37:22 PM
remember - get out now!   sell low and buy high.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: mute20 on September 09, 2011, 05:39:51 PM
remember - get out now!   sell low and buy high.

Seems right the right decision. We need to lose money in order to make money!!!


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Raize on September 09, 2011, 05:49:57 PM
Question: Why buy now when I can buy all 7 million Bitcoins for $700 when it falls to $.0001?
Answer: Because everyone else is thinking the same thing.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: molecular on September 09, 2011, 05:56:48 PM
what are you +1ing? nagle is objectively correct.

nagle said the bubble would burst "all the way". So he's not technically correct, is he?


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Nagle on September 09, 2011, 06:01:50 PM
The amount of BTC being offered for sale at 5.25 is just staggering. It truly dwarfs the amount of
money wanting into BTC.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD/accumulated_orderbook.png
Current Mt. Gox market depth

Wow. That's new in the last few hours. It looks like people got up today, checked the prices, and panicked.

(Yes, there will probably be some rebound, but in the last three months, the rebound never entirely recovered the previous drop.)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: fcmatt on September 09, 2011, 06:01:56 PM
If this is suffering then hell ain't half bad.

I have never found a market where it is easier to make profitable trades so frequently, but it is not for 'holders'...

But that assumes perfect trading which we know is not possible. Buying in at the wrong moment
just means you needed to sell at a loss to try again. Picking the spot to catch the falling knife for
just a few moments to catch a small upswing is not exactly easy.

Unless you have a strategy I am not thinking of which is very possible.

----------

And I am out. No more BTC for me. It was fun trying to trade but I sucked at it for the last week.
Nice way to lose enough money for a really fancy dinner out on a Saturday night. Probably dropped
a 100 bucks in the last week with losses. Sent the money to dwolla.

But eh.. i get free electricity at the colo due to my job and my 2.6 gh/s will create more BTC soon
enough to putz around with. Hope difficulty drops over the next month.

C'est la vie.



Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Nagle on September 09, 2011, 06:06:43 PM
But that assumes perfect trading which we know is not possible.

Right. Trying to trade noise is futile. Read "A Random Walk down Wall Street".


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: buttcoin on September 09, 2011, 06:38:12 PM
The amount of BTC being offered for sale at 5.25 is just staggering. It truly dwarfs the amount of
money wanting into BTC. Just two weeks ago people would have loved to buy at that price but now
no one wants to touch them.

How can the price possibly recover when people do not want to buy, and even if they do buy,
the amount of cash to bring the price back up to 7 is ridiculous.



Why buy at $7 if you can buy at $5.25?
Why buy at $5.24 if you can buy at $4?
Why buy at $4 if you can buy at $3?
.
.
.
People are going to keep pressing their luck until someone decides it's time to buy big, and the procrastinators lose out big time.


The big dogs could bring the price up to $10 right now if they wanted to, which means double the value than $5.25 for them. Saw someone with a 17,000 btc bid at 5.25 earlier.

See, but no one wants in at $10. No one who's not in bitcoins now wants in at all.

There is no "big dog" to save you guys.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Gerken on September 09, 2011, 06:40:57 PM
The amount of BTC being offered for sale at 5.25 is just staggering. It truly dwarfs the amount of
money wanting into BTC. Just two weeks ago people would have loved to buy at that price but now
no one wants to touch them.

How can the price possibly recover when people do not want to buy, and even if they do buy,
the amount of cash to bring the price back up to 7 is ridiculous.



Why buy at $7 if you can buy at $5.25?
Why buy at $5.24 if you can buy at $4?
Why buy at $4 if you can buy at $3?
.
.
.
People are going to keep pressing their luck until someone decides it's time to buy big, and the procrastinators lose out big time.


The big dogs could bring the price up to $10 right now if they wanted to, which means double the value than $5.25 for them. Saw someone with a 17,000 btc bid at 5.25 earlier.

See, but no one wants in at $10. No one who's not in bitcoins now wants in at all.

There is no "big dog" to save you guys.
But...but...the fundamentals are sound!


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: gw4tt on September 09, 2011, 06:43:39 PM
There is no "big dog" to save you guys.

Not even the manipulator can save you now.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: hightax on September 09, 2011, 06:50:26 PM
Not even the manipulator can save you now.

What do you mean?  There's another fake bid wall at $4 now.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: buttcoin on September 09, 2011, 06:57:52 PM
Oh wait, I found the big dogs

http://www.bigdogs.com/shared/images/products/1101-2974-100.jpg


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: gw4tt on September 09, 2011, 06:58:07 PM
Not even the manipulator can save you now.

What do you mean?  There's another fake bid wall at $4 now.

If that was the manipulator the bid wall would be bigger.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: MelMan2002 on September 09, 2011, 06:59:49 PM
http://i158.photobucket.com/albums/t153/melman2002/market.jpg
This resembles something...hmm...


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: ElectricMucus on September 09, 2011, 07:04:01 PM
I LOVE
DRAMA


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Jixtreme on September 09, 2011, 07:07:05 PM

I LOL'd.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: hightax on September 09, 2011, 07:10:45 PM
What do you mean?  There's another fake bid wall at $4 now.

ya that is where prices will likely become stable... for a while... it's a big bid wall, but there really isn't much above it.

Actually, taking into account that bitcoincharts isn't showing ANY activity <$4 I have a suspicion that it's not a wall at all, but rather the sum total of all holder who simply don't believe it will drop below $4.

*edit* wait, wait, no.  It's a wall:
$4.00    BTC:3461 (3)    $73616    

Two of those orders are 20BTC and 10BTC accordingly, leaving one giant wall of ~$73k.  So unless somebody's foolish enough to actually want to spend $73k I'd bet that wall will disappear just like all the other ones did.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: ElectricMucus on September 09, 2011, 07:18:22 PM
How can bit walls be fake?

They must have the funds to place them and if they are got hit the transaction is done.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Minsc on September 09, 2011, 07:19:38 PM
Actually, taking into account that bitcoincharts isn't showing ANY activity <$4 I have a suspicion that it's not a wall at all, but rather the sum total of all holder who simply don't believe it will drop below $4.

Let's crash that bidwall!  Come out person with 22000 coins.  Send them to me and I will crash it then buy it back lower and give you the difference (plus I'll buy back some lower too with my own funds!)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: arsenische on September 09, 2011, 07:19:52 PM
How can bit walls be fake?

They must have the funds to place them and if they are got hit the transaction is done.

Trading bots remove them as price moves closer so that they are not executed.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: chungenhung on September 09, 2011, 07:20:51 PM
remember - get out now!   sell low and buy high.

Seems right the right decision. We need to lose money in order to make money!!!
SOme people gotta lose $ in order for others to win $.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: hightax on September 09, 2011, 07:23:21 PM
How can bit walls be fake?

They must have the funds to place them and if they are got hit the transaction is done.

Well I must be psychic because *POOF* the $4 wall has vanished.

Yes, the person putting up the wall (mtgox) has to hold enough to cover it, but since it's fake, and there's no intent to follow through, the wall disappears (gets cancelled) before any trades get close to filling the order.

http://i.imgur.com/dHqUa.png (http://imgur.com/dHqUa)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Jixtreme on September 09, 2011, 07:25:44 PM
I get the disticnt feeling that we are merely in the eye of the storm...


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: smoothie on September 09, 2011, 07:27:32 PM
I get the disticnt feeling that we are merely in the eye of the storm...

We are... there is more downside to come...


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: CoinMan on September 09, 2011, 07:28:58 PM
I can not believe you people are still making decisions based on the order book...

+1 (so many losers, so few winners)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: fcmatt on September 09, 2011, 07:30:01 PM
I can not believe you people are still making decisions based on the order book...

Ok. You are right. The order book is basically nonsense because you do not have to pay to put
up or take down an order.

But what else can you make judgments by? That bitcoin seems to be a ponzi scheme right now
and anyone with an ounce of common sense would sell? Well that seems like good advice/trade.

When would you buy back in? When type of trade are you trying to make? Get in and out making
a few cents per BTC?


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: pekv2 on September 09, 2011, 07:34:05 PM
NO

excellent point, well rounded with facts and citations that clearly demonstrate a full and complete understandi

Excellent point, I responded to the OP's "If you're not out, get out.", No, I'm gonna keep mining.

NO

i can see how someone got up to their 464 post sr. member status.  

o.o, What does your reply have anything to do with the OP's thread?  I can see how someone got up to their 207 posts full member status.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Gerken on September 09, 2011, 07:53:02 PM
I get the disticnt feeling that we are merely in the eye of the storm...
Indeed, people are losing interest.  There are no billionaire investors waiting to cash in, just people desperate to get rich like the early adopters did.  Somebody's gotta lose money. 


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Elwar on September 09, 2011, 08:33:27 PM
More Bitcoins for me.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: mp420 on September 11, 2011, 06:45:09 AM
I for one believe, at the current market fundamentals, that under $5 is unsustainable in the long term. I'm already waiting for my bank transfer to MtGox to clear so I can take advantage of the low prices, but I fear everyone else is racing against me to the cheap coins.

It may dip to anomalous lows because there's too little fiat money left on the exchanges. Friday was just too wild. I can't comprehend why anyone would be desperate enough to dump such huge amounts of BTC when there's so little support for the prices.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: ElectricMucus on September 11, 2011, 06:48:40 AM
Chances are there will be a window of opportunity for about a week or so, and it might go even lower.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Cluster2k on September 11, 2011, 07:10:22 AM
I for one believe, at the current market fundamentals, that under $5 is unsustainable in the long term. I'm already waiting for my bank transfer to MtGox to clear so I can take advantage of the low prices, but I fear everyone else is racing against me to the cheap coins.

By publicly announcing your intentions with 'oh no, other people are going to beat me to the bargains' I can't help but feel you've already got quite a large number of bitcoins, or have recently purchased some and are looking to pump the price higher.

It may dip to anomalous lows because there's too little fiat money left on the exchanges. Friday was just too wild. I can't comprehend why anyone would be desperate enough to dump such huge amounts of BTC when there's so little support for the prices.

So little support for them being this high, or this low?  We can use mining costs to support the price of bitcoins.  If you're in Europe or Australia then $4.75 is already below electricity costs.  American miners may stick in the game for longer.  But with over 7 million bitcoins already out there, there are more than enough for people to speculate with even if not a single extra bitcoin was created from today onwards.  Remember, at least a few million bitcoins were generated when the price was sub $1.  There is price support for bitcoins, but it's nowhere near as high as $5.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: mp420 on September 11, 2011, 07:23:59 AM

By publicly announcing your intentions with 'oh no, other people are going to beat me to the bargains' I can't help but feel you've already got quite a large number of bitcoins, or have recently purchased some and are looking to pump the price higher.

Nah, I own some bitcoins but I use them more as a long term hedging strategy against the hypothetical scenario where BTCs become a much more useful currency than they're now. In that case they would be much more valuable too. I'm not betting all my savings on that.

But that hypothetical scenario is becoming more and more likely as time passes and no fundamental technical problems are found within the bitcoin network. I'm pretty much only waiting for the scalability enhancements to be implemented, I think the scalability issues are the only hard limits on the usefulness of bitcoin at the moment.

And I am not going to invest huge amounts of money into bitcoin anyway. If it drops lower than I've expected, I'll buy more of it.

I just stated my speculative opinion about what I think of current prices.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: im3w1l on September 11, 2011, 09:16:07 AM
I can not believe you people are still making decisions based on the order book...

Well, the L1 data is mostly sound.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: tvbcof on September 11, 2011, 09:38:43 AM

By publicly announcing your intentions with 'oh no, other people are going to beat me to the bargains' I can't help but feel you've already got quite a large number of bitcoins, or have recently purchased some and are looking to pump the price higher.

Nah, I own some bitcoins but I use them more as a long term hedging strategy against the hypothetical scenario where BTCs become a much more useful currency than they're now. In that case they would be much more valuable too. I'm not betting all my savings on that.

But that hypothetical scenario is becoming more and more likely as time passes and no fundamental technical problems are found within the bitcoin network. I'm pretty much only waiting for the scalability enhancements to be implemented, I think the scalability issues are the only hard limits on the usefulness of bitcoin at the moment.

And I am not going to invest huge amounts of money into bitcoin anyway. If it drops lower than I've expected, I'll buy more of it.

I just stated my speculative opinion about what I think of current prices.

Jeez...I had to double-check that I did not write the above prose.

I had some 'absurd low' bids in that got taken out.  Put in a few more (and the number of BTC that I pick up if those get snagged is higher due to the much lower price.)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Technomage on September 11, 2011, 11:07:00 AM
I'd change the topic to "If you're not in, get in."

It's fairly evident to me that the bubble has deflated. I'm expecting that next week we'll finally see a change in the trends and there will actually be at least one rally of decent volume. With the current size of the Bitcoin economy, which is 7 times larger than at the beginning of 2011, I consider any price lower than $5 a low one because the Bitcoin economy at this stage should be able to fundamentally have a price of $5 at least.

That being said, I do plan on buying more coins if I can get money in before the price is still visiting the below $5 range. Will I buy at higher than $5, that'll depend on the trends and what kind of rally's we'll see in the weeks to come. This will be a very interesting month I believe.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: MaGNeT on September 11, 2011, 11:07:33 AM
More Bitcoins for me.

This!


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Gabi on September 11, 2011, 11:13:01 AM
SELL SELL SELL


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: coinonymous on September 11, 2011, 11:34:53 AM
IMO the most hyperbolic speculators are confused.  The exchanges are modeled after forex, and forex is a very useful analogy that almost always suffices when talking and even speculating about BTCUSD or BTC-Gold or what-have-you.

But, when one's purpose is to analyze the macroeconomics of Bitcoin and develop long term real price movement expectations the "currency" analogy breaks down.

First, BTC has no intrinsic value basis.  In fact, as with fiat currency, there is arguably an intrinsic negative real value expectation since there are costs associated with printing and carrying around and so forth (although these ultimately must be weighed against the real costs of the barter system which are clearly quite significant!)

Second, expected long-term intrinsic minting costs are (arguably) much higher with respect to BTC than typical fiat currencies, by design.  So much so, I would argue, that a "backed" currency (like, say, USD in late 19th and early 20th century) is clearly a far better analogy.

Third, even this model is deficient since, although not huge, gold, being shiny, malleable, conductive and so forth, does have real intrinsic value which creates a kind of "speculative floor."  Even if somebody figures out how to effortlessly fabricate gold from dirt, it will still retain some value because there will always be a market for it so long as civilization has not utterly collapsed.  Bitcoin has no such intrinsic value.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if we are modelling rational expectations, then the near-guarantee of scarcity and relative-to-aggregate supply-side minting difficulty (barring, I suppose, dramatic and unexpected advances in crypto-math) forms the sole basis for for any speculation about long-term price movements, by way of a demand function determined solely by the utility of BTC as a means of exchange and storage of wealth.

This means, I think, that our mid-to-long term expectations of real Bitcoin prices won't follow the same patterns that we are accustomed to seeing in forex or commodities markets.

Put another way, who fucking knows what will happen!?  It's fascinating to speculate about, but any sort of "return-to-mean, ldo" hypothesis, intrinsic value hypothesis or other chart-whisperer hypothesis probably has no basis here.  We need to think way, way outside of those boxes because the supply and demand functions of Bitcoin don't answer to the same fundamentals we are accustomed to seeing in other commodities.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: im3w1l on September 11, 2011, 11:50:02 AM
I model it as a random jog - it's far more volatile than a random walk  ;D


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: caston on September 11, 2011, 11:56:34 AM
I'm not selling. It gets my mind in the wrong mindset and I end up in the bear trap when the market takes off again. At the moment I am using fiat money to pay down personal debts and am trading the alternates to increase my BTC count. When I am ready I will buy a more BTC. At the moment I buy some from a miner that I know in real life as he is a good friend but he only produces 1 BTC a day and kind of wants to just pay off his rig and get out. I tell him what I make trading the BTC he sells me and he is interested but I warn him to be careful.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: cbeast on September 11, 2011, 12:17:17 PM
The cipher geeks say bitcoin is a good idea. Economists are almost always wrong anyway, so I'll stay with the smart money and bitcoin.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Surawit on September 11, 2011, 12:50:13 PM
I'd change the topic to "If you're not in, get in."

It's fairly evident to me that the bubble has deflated. I'm expecting that next week we'll finally see a change in the trends and there will actually be at least one rally of decent volume. With the current size of the Bitcoin economy, which is 7 times larger than at the beginning of 2011, I consider any price lower than $5 a low one because the Bitcoin economy at this stage should be able to fundamentally have a price of $5 at least.

That being said, I do plan on buying more coins if I can get money in before the price is still visiting the below $5 range. Will I buy at higher than $5, that'll depend on the trends and what kind of rally's we'll see in the weeks to come. This will be a very interesting month I believe.

Please, keep making predictions

Indeed. Everything about Bitcoin fundamentals is going fairly well right now. No bad news, some good news. Trends are doing okay such as google trends and forum memberships. I seriously doubt a new low of below $5.

We might see a new low below the last one but I think $4.xx is almost impossible, there is simply no fundamental reason for it to go that low. The demand at $5.xx will be absolutely massive, those are truly cheap coins.

In fact I'm very surprised if the price breaks below the resistance levels at $6.xx, but I guess we'll see.

Well holding makes sense right now. Or buying, if you still have something to buy with. It's very, very unlikely that price will bottom at below $5. In fact I'd be willing to bet on this if someone wants to :)

Now I'm interested in seeing if the price will even break $6 which I think is unlikely but possible. Regardless, now we're at a range where buying is a good move and holding is a really good move.

Only a total doomsday-bear would sell at around $6.50 or less, there are no real indicators to show a major price drop from that point unless you're only seeing the very pessimistic scenarios. Anything is possible, but it's really pessimistic thinking.

Just lingering at 5 or 6 for a month before it jumps to some random price.

From what I've seen, the price jumps somewhere and then just lingers and lingers.
Well this is a good question. One thing that's important to note is that a change of one dollar in price is relatively a MUCH bigger deal when we close in on the smaller single digits. There is a huge difference between $5 and $6 and I think this will prove fairly critical in the near future.

We will probably see a major correction when the price bottoms out, whatever the bottom might be. To at least $7+, possibly $8+. Then it's a good question what will happen, there is a possibility of a trend changing rally and there's also a possibility of continuing decline.

But contrary to the doomsday-trolls I feel that a stable price lower than $5 is pretty much not happening, at all. I don't even think of that situation because it's simply so unlikely, the demand for cheap coins just rises exponentially going down from $7 to $4 so with the current fundamentals I can't see a price below $5. I can only see a spike below $5 but even that is very unlikely.

This might of course change and I might think differently in a few weeks but my current estimate for this month in general is positive and quite bullish. It's entirely possible that this is the last crash we're going to see in a while. But time will tell.

It's very hard to say if the price has bottomed or not. I still see a possibility of a small decline within the next 2 months, but it will be a much slower one with the price maybe bottoming at $5.xx. This is the worst case scenario. In a good scenario we get good boost this month in form of announcements of new services and good media coverage which will start an uptrend sooner.

Regardless, looking at the transaction count chart (http://pi.uk.com/bitcoin/charts/n-transactions) it will take at the most 3 months for the economic decline to run its course and after that it's entirely up to the Bitcoin community and the media to decide where it will go. From there we have basically two options, a further decline and possible true death of Bitcoin and what I think is far more likely, the flourishing of Bitcoin's potential.

Bitcoin is still fundamentally just as magnificent as it ever was. I can't see how the doomsday-bears have ever contributed anything to Bitcoin itself, they have simply been here to make easy money and now that the option of making that money from a soaring bubble price is not available they have turned to whining. Pathetic.

The price of Bitcoins fluctuates a lot because there are speculators and traders playing the market. The size of the market is still so small that only a handful of decent bankroll traders can cause big shifts in the price. Price will stabilize if and when the Bitcoin market gets bigger.

But when we talk about going down from $20 to $7, well, that's the bursting of the biggest bubble in Bitcoin history. A speculation bubble. Actually it's from the peak of $32 but anyway.

At the same time we have seen the size of the economy contract a little, as can be seen clearly from this chart: http://pi.uk.com/bitcoin/charts/n-transactions

Now we are reaching the point of a "bottom price" right now, with the amount of transactions leveling off as well within a few months for sure, possibly earlier. Then the price will start going up, probably in an unstable fashion again because there are big speculators on board. But eventually, I hope, the size of the market will increase and it'll be more difficult for people to just "play the market".

One thing is clear, if you think Bitcoin is still doing good for the long term (years), then don't worry about the current price too much. Personally I still think Bitcoin is doing really good and has so much potential which is slowly being realized. It has been a slow process with some growing pains on the way but that's natural.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: caston on September 11, 2011, 12:56:41 PM
The cipher geeks say bitcoin is a good idea. Economists are almost always wrong anyway, so I'll stay with the smart money and bitcoin.

That's right. I don't know if I am getting smarter but I'm damn sure that my money is.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Jack of Diamonds on September 11, 2011, 01:10:29 PM
A lower price point at this difficulty sucks for miners, but is great for people looking to buy stuff like drugs from Silk Road.

They might be more willing to buy bitcoins at $5 a piece than 20 bucks.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Technomage on September 12, 2011, 12:33:12 PM
Surawit, I have no excuses. I was wrong with my predictions of the daily low's. However, that data is only relevant to daytraders. In most long term charts those spikes won't even be visible. I'm personally more interested in the big picture. My predictions on the big picture haven't failed, and I still stand by them. There hasn't been a stable price below $5, not even for 24 hours. And there won't be while the Bitcoin economy is as big as it is now.

I was also predicting the first high volume rally in a long time to come this week, but it already came yesterday. The big picture looks really good right now and there is reason to believe that the 4.18 was the bottom. Now is a very good time to buy, at $5.x at least.

And I'm putting my money where my mouth is, I'm currently just waiting for the price to drop a little to buy.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Hotdog453 on September 12, 2011, 12:41:03 PM
A lower price point at this difficulty sucks for miners, but is great for people looking to buy stuff like drugs from Silk Road.

They might be more willing to buy bitcoins at $5 a piece than 20 bucks.

If you're looking to buy drugs from Silk Road, I highly doubt a variance in Bitcoin price is really going to hinder or appeal to you. If I want pot, I'll buy bitcoins if I need them, regardless of the price of Bitcoins; everything on Silk Road is going to vary anyways depending on the Bitcoin value.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: molecular on September 12, 2011, 03:11:31 PM
A lower price point at this difficulty sucks for miners, but is great for people looking to buy stuff like drugs from Silk Road.

They might be more willing to buy bitcoins at $5 a piece than 20 bucks.

If you're looking to buy drugs from Silk Road, I highly doubt a variance in Bitcoin price is really going to hinder or appeal to you. If I want pot, I'll buy bitcoins if I need them, regardless of the price of Bitcoins; everything on Silk Road is going to vary anyways depending on the Bitcoin value.

Ya, it just changes how many BTC you need or not.  I suspect the seller and the buyers all don't care a whole lot about bitcoin either way, it's just a "safe" "anonymous" way to perform an illegal transaction.

Is the transaction itself illegal because it is payment for illegal goods?


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Nagle on September 12, 2011, 05:43:30 PM
I'd change the topic to "If you're not in, get in."
...
Please, keep making predictions

It's even more interesting if you go back further in Technomage's posts: "We'll be back to $13-14 by end of week. Know how I know?" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=34227.msg430814#msg430814)  "I seriously doubt a price lower than $9 unless there is a further decrease in rate of adoption and more bad news."  --  Technomage, August 5, 2011.



Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Technomage on September 12, 2011, 08:07:16 PM
It's even more interesting if you go back further in Technomage's posts: "We'll be back to $13-14 by end of week. Know how I know?" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=34227.msg430814#msg430814)  "I seriously doubt a price lower than $9 unless there is a further decrease in rate of adoption and more bad news."  --  Technomage, August 5, 2011.
Nothing wrong with my prediction there, just need to read the important part. We've had plenty of bad news and further decrease in the size of the economy. Too early to say just yet, but this month could be the one where the degrowth levels off completely. Next month at the latest. What we've seen now is nothing other than a massive bubble bursting.

This is the graph I use when talking about the size of the economy, btw: http://pi.uk.com/bitcoin/charts/n-transactions


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: YoYa on September 13, 2011, 06:24:36 AM
I was right. You were wrong. Now suffer.

Oh my.......that says more about you then you'll ever want to admit. But ultimately should bitcoin fail, you'll lose your outlet.

On the other hand.....should you care to engage the people here, you might get something more satisfying such as the discussion this thread has generated.

Ultimately we are all adults responsible for our actions and the risks we take. If people choose to place money in a risky investment such as bitcoin, and then add further to that risk by not actively managing their investment(holding) meaning they can't protect themselves against fall's in value.......then isn't it solely their responsibility?

At all times during my involvement with bitcoin, I have known the risk of total loss, and that risk remains. However I choose to embrace and live with that risk because as an IT professional I understand the technology and see it as worth the risk.

I am responsible.

I choose bitcoin of my own volition and there was no ponzi salesman involved.
Should I lose my money, I'll still have my health and my friends and family will not be any worse off for my choice.

I should suffer because I am willing to undertake a risk of my own choosing that you disagree with?

And everything Chodpoda said..... +1^1000


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Bigpiggy01 on September 13, 2011, 07:27:03 AM
Quote
Oh my.......that says more about you then you'll ever want to admit. But ultimately should bitcoin fail, you'll lose your outlet.

On the other hand.....should you care to engage the people here, you might get something more satisfying such as the discussion this thread has generated.

Ultimately we are all adults responsible for our actions and the risks we take. If people choose to place money in a risky investment such as bitcoin, and then add further to that risk by not actively managing their investment(holding) meaning they can't protect themselves against fall's in value.......then isn't it solely their responsibility?

At all times during my involvement with bitcoin, I have known the risk of total loss, and that risk remains. However I choose to embrace and live with that risk because as an IT professional I understand the technology and see it as worth the risk.

I am responsible.

I choose bitcoin of my own volition and there was no ponzi salesman involved.
Should I lose my money, I'll still have my health and my friends and family will not be any worse off for my choice.

I should suffer because I am willing to undertake a risk of my own choosing that you disagree with?

And everything Chodpoda said..... +1^1000


+1


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: cloon on September 13, 2011, 08:56:09 AM
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=90&i=&c=0&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0
Bitcoin/USD, last 3 months. Any questions?

Bitcoin is over. If you're not out, get out. The last ones to leave will be the worst off.

I've been saying for months that this was a speculative bubble, a pyramid scheme. I said that when bubbles pop, they pop all the way. There were replies like "troll" and "hater".  "The bitcoin's value will inevitably increase." (Bazil). "Regular use of Bitcoins will pick up pace, it's inevitable." (Goodlord666). There are still people writing comments like that.

I was right. You were wrong. Now suffer.
lol you only want to buy cheap coins
longterm is intact!


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: molecular on September 13, 2011, 10:32:57 AM
Quote from: YoYa
And everything Chodpoda said..... +1^1000

+1^1000 = +1

Oh, and YoYa, please change your profile picture. After having seen the bitcoin-related videos of this person (example: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ko5lOc4nsac), I cannot take your posts seriously, even though I know you're not him. ^^


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Cluster2k on September 13, 2011, 11:01:49 AM
lol you only want to buy cheap coins
longterm is intact!

How long does a graph have to keep going down before the short term becomes long term?  Sure, bitcoins were once worth a few cents each, now they're worth $6.  Fantastic.  We're in a massive bull market.  Only problem is they were worth $30+ a few months ago.  Anyone who got bitcoins before March is probably still smiling.  The rest are rather unhappy.

It all depends on the time period you're willing to choose.  For example, Citigroup's share price is actually stable and there's nothing wrong with the stock.  The company has no problems... if you're willing to compare the share price today to what it was 20 years ago.  The stock hit $500+ in the meantime, but we shouldn't be worried by that.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:C



Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: mp420 on September 13, 2011, 03:36:57 PM
lol you only want to buy cheap coins
longterm is intact!
How long does a graph have to keep going down before the short term becomes long term? 

My long term outlook will change if BTC stays under $4 for a month. This would, in my opinion, signify that bitcoin's long term adoption rate has weakened substantially.

Still, this will not mean BTC won't be worth $100 or $1000 or more in 10 years.

And if BTC stays above $5 for the rest of the year this will not mean bitcoin will not ultimately fail.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Technomage on September 13, 2011, 10:05:01 PM
My long term outlook will change if BTC stays under $4 for a month. This would, in my opinion, signify that bitcoin's long term adoption rate has weakened substantially.

Still, this will not mean BTC won't be worth $100 or $1000 or more in 10 years.

And if BTC stays above $5 for the rest of the year this will not mean bitcoin will not ultimately fail.
+1

This is pretty much what I think as well. With the current fundamentals (namely the size of the economy), I find a stable price below $5 very unlikely and if that were to happen it would signify bad things in my mind. A price below $4 for a month would make me a doomsday-bear. :)

So far the market has shown very strong bullish signs at below $5 and fairly bullish at below $5.5, at $6 the interest for buying seems to have died. This is where we're at, what happens next is interesting. I speculated on what could happen in the "$/BTC Time Series Analysis" thread.



Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: grod on September 13, 2011, 10:49:55 PM
Calling a bottom again?  I'm down with that.  Please deposit more money and catch this falling knife again, I've mined another coin to replace the one I sold at $6. =)

Deepbit is not losing much hashing power at all, which means almost everyone still mining has power as cheap if not cheaper than my 4.6 cents/kwhr (or about a buck eighty in pure power to make a BTC).  We'll mine another 210,000+ coins to sell over September, never fear!  $1.80 to $5 is still profitable.  $1.80 to $4 is still profitable.   $1.80 to $2 is still profitable.  And heck, looking at namecoin, I'd say people will still mine at $1.80 to sell at $1.25.

After that, well, depends on whether difficulty drops or not.




Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Technomage on September 14, 2011, 10:18:46 AM
Calling a bottom again?  I'm down with that.  Please deposit more money and catch this falling knife again, I've mined another coin to replace the one I sold at $6. =)

Deepbit is not losing much hashing power at all, which means almost everyone still mining has power as cheap if not cheaper than my 4.6 cents/kwhr (or about a buck eighty in pure power to make a BTC).  We'll mine another 210,000+ coins to sell over September, never fear!  $1.80 to $5 is still profitable.  $1.80 to $4 is still profitable.   $1.80 to $2 is still profitable.  And heck, looking at namecoin, I'd say people will still mine at $1.80 to sell at $1.25.

After that, well, depends on whether difficulty drops or not.
How stoned will one have to be to post something like this? Current miners do not drive the price. The profitability of mining or the network hashing power have no effect on the BTC/USD price. The price does affect them, but not vice versa.

I'll try to explain this so that it's understood. Every month, since Bitcoin started, the network has created 210 000 new coins. This will continue to happen for a little less than a year. The profitability of mining or the network hashing power has NO EFFECT ON THIS.

So we can see that there is a constant inflation rate regardless of anything and miners will be selling coins just like they have been selling coins in the past. Regardless of the fact that they sell coins at a constant pace, the price has gone all over the place. It has gone up, down, up, down and way up and way down. The effect miners cause is pretty much constant.

I'm not done yet. To put up some numbers to clearly illustrate the whole point, I checked the 30 day volumes of the 10 biggest markets from Bitcoin Charts. And by the way, this is not even close to the whole amount of coins sold because there are other ways to obtain/sell coins. The number I came up with is 1 374 000.

So how many coins are miners selling? That is unknown, some sell none, some sell everything and some save a portion. I like to usually call 50% but let's say for kicks that it's as high as 70%, and I can't think how in the world it could be higher, we come up with 147 000 miner coins sold within a 30 day period, on average.

The result is that we come up with a percentage which is a little shy of 11%. So the effect of all the miners in total is a whopping 11%. The other 89% of price movement comes from other sources, such as speculators, traders, investors, early adopters etc.

And this was calculated with the conservative 70% coins sold estimate. You can of course change that estimate and calculate again but the result will always be that miners have the smallest effect of all the types of players trading BTC/USD. You can also argue that the price affects how miners sell coins. That is true, for example I haven't sold a single mined coin after the price hit the current range and will not be selling anything in the short term because the expectation for a rise in the next few months is significant, and I'm in no hurry.

For the people who already sell 100% I'm pretty sure there's nothing that can make them sell more.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: grod on September 14, 2011, 02:23:07 PM

How stoned will one have to be to post something like this? Current miners do not drive the price. The profitability of mining or the network hashing power have no effect on the BTC/USD price. The price does affect them, but not vice versa.

7200 coins a day is $1,000,000 dollars worth of bitcoins a month available to be sold at $5.  If you don't understand how requiring TWELVE MILLION DOLLARS a year to keep bitcoin at $5 influences prices, well, I can see why you've had 100% failure to predict major bitcoin pricing trends so far, and I have had far more success.

Quote
I'll try to explain this so that it's understood. Every month, since Bitcoin started, the network has created 210 000 new coins. This will continue to happen for a little less than a year. The profitability of mining or the network hashing power has NO EFFECT ON THIS.

And yet, as bitcoin mining became insanely profitable 75% of the current mining power joined and started selling as opposed to hoarding.  Another way to look at it: before May, less than 20% of mined bitcoins were sold.  After May, that percentage spiked WAY higher as people who got into this for dollars, not bitcoins, tried to pay for their investment -- people who currently make up vastly more of the network than the early guys.

Quote
The result is that we come up with a percentage which is a little shy of 11%. So the effect of all the miners in total is a whopping 11%. The other 89% of price movement comes from other sources, such as speculators, traders, investors, early adopters etc.

Ever hear of velocity of money?  It doesn't matter that the same coin may have been traded multiple times that month, the fact remains.  Every month several million dollars worth of bitcoins were added to the supply.  Unless there was a corresponding increase in demand (and there hasn't) predictable things happened to pricing.

Quote
That is true, for example I haven't sold a single mined coin after the price hit the current range and will not be selling anything in the short term because the expectation for a rise in the next few months is significant, and I'm in no hurry.

For the people who already sell 100% I'm pretty sure there's nothing that can make them sell more.

I've been selling even at current prices and can now buy back lower.  Just like I've been doing ever since June.  We can agree to disagree -- you can speculate expecting higher prices in spite of technicals and fundamentals indicating the exact opposite is more likely, I'll continue speculating expecting lower prices.  Let's see who comes out ahead "long term."  Just because I have no long position now doesn't mean I can't switch to a bullish strategy when it's clear we're on an uptrend, and having MORE dollars to do that with rather than fewer seems like a good thing.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: grod on September 14, 2011, 02:43:57 PM
Oh, and one more thing.  I never denied that bitcoin value is 100% derived from speculation.  With absolutely zero revenue and a $1000/hour cost to run the thing by definition it can't be anything else.  The question is: what kind off factors are influencing the mindset of said speculators at the moment?  IMO the requirement for a large influx of cash from new greater fools is currently one of the biggest.  Possible instability and flakiness of mtgox is good runner up.

As far as trading volume -- consider how much volume is generated by tradebots on mtgox.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Technomage on September 15, 2011, 03:54:40 PM
7200 coins a day is $1,000,000 dollars worth of bitcoins a month available to be sold at $5.  If you don't understand how requiring TWELVE MILLION DOLLARS a year to keep bitcoin at $5 influences prices, well, I can see why you've had 100% failure to predict major bitcoin pricing trends so far, and I have had far more success.
The success of our predictions is an ad hominem argument (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem) which is a failure in argumentation. Also your attempt at changing the coin amount again to 7200 and moving to a yearly number doesn't change any of the calculations I did in my last post. I didn't say miners' coins don't have any effect, I said they have a small effect. Although I should probably talk about current miners because all coins are originally mined.

And if you don't think the same calculation applies, then think again. The monthly transactions in dollars from the 10 biggest trading sites is over 10 million, which is over 120 MILLION DOLLARS a year, "omg". This is just now, in Bitcoin's infancy. At this time next year this issue will be even less significant because there will be only 25 BTC per block.

Quote
Ever hear of velocity of money?  It doesn't matter that the same coin may have been traded multiple times that month, the fact remains.  Every month several million dollars worth of bitcoins were added to the supply.  Unless there was a corresponding increase in demand (and there hasn't) predictable things happened to pricing.
This is true and obvious. In a declining economy an inflation of this sort will obviously "help" a price drop, but that's not the why, it's the what. Miners are selling coins, selling coins, selling coins, all the time. They might hold and sell more coins at certain times but still, the price moves mostly because the demand drops, traders and speculators decide to exit, etc.

If Bitcoin was based on some kind of ever increasing inflation scenario, then I'd be willing to say the inflation itself is actually the cause of the price dropping.

Quote
I've been selling even at current prices and can now buy back lower.  Just like I've been doing ever since June.  We can agree to disagree -- you can speculate expecting higher prices in spite of technicals and fundamentals indicating the exact opposite is more likely, I'll continue speculating expecting lower prices.  Let's see who comes out ahead "long term."  Just because I have no long position now doesn't mean I can't switch to a bullish strategy when it's clear we're on an uptrend, and having MORE dollars to do that with rather than fewer seems like a good thing.
I have no problem with this. It's a good strategy if it works for you. I've made some coins trading as well, but mostly I'm not trading. Overall I'm a little bit down counting in fiat but I'm up significantly in coins. Now I'm mostly just holding and actually investing more when I can decide the correct point to buy. My interest is in the long term situation and investing according to that. I've only traded on a couple of clear mid-term trends, I've not moved on short-term for a long time, not my thing. It's usually too stressful.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Technomage on September 15, 2011, 04:09:27 PM
As far as trading volume -- consider how much volume is generated by tradebots on mtgox.
Well, there are traders behind the trading bots. It's those traders, then, that move the price. But this is somewhat true that a portion of the volume means nothing, it's just constant back and forth for a very short term profit. How much of the volume is generated by this super short term trading is a good question. I have no clue but I'd certainly like to know. :)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: tvbcof on September 15, 2011, 06:23:42 PM

Well, there are traders behind the trading bots. It's those traders, then, that move the price. But this is somewhat true that a portion of the volume means nothing, it's just constant back and forth for a very short term profit. How much of the volume is generated by this super short term trading is a good question. I have no clue but I'd certainly like to know. :)

The ultimate result will be as it is for many other markets, that trading will be transferred from the hands of humans to their 'trusty' servants the bots... Instead of a foot race it will be a drag race with the greasers and gearheads vying for a testosterone rush with their finely tuned machines instead of the plodding, doddering gladiators... That is all.

Got any insights or guesses about where we are on that path, and/or what the curve looks like (that you wish to share on this public forum?)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: zby on September 15, 2011, 08:36:26 PM
7200 coins a day is $1,000,000 dollars worth of bitcoins a month available to be sold at $5.  If you don't understand how requiring TWELVE MILLION DOLLARS a year to keep bitcoin at $5 influences prices, well, I can see why you've had 100% failure to predict major bitcoin pricing trends so far, and I have had far more success.
The success of our predictions is an ad hominem argument (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem) which is a failure in argumentation. Also your attempt at changing the coin amount again to 7200 and ...

7200BTC per day is the correct estimation.  You have 50BTC per 10 minutes - that is 6 * 50BTC = 300BTC per hour and 300 * 24 = 7200 per day.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Nagle on September 15, 2011, 08:46:06 PM
Oh, and one more thing.  I never denied that bitcoin value is 100% derived from speculation.  With absolutely zero revenue and a $1000/hour cost to run the thing by definition it can't be anything else.  The question is: what kind off factors are influencing the mindset of said speculators at the moment?  IMO the requirement for a large influx of cash from new greater fools is currently one of the biggest.  Possible instability and flakiness of mtgox is good runner up.

I've been saying that since June 11, 2011 (http://www.downside.com/), three days after the bubble burst and the price had dropped from $30 to $17. "There's no revenue model here. All growth comes only from new investors. This is a bubble in its pure form."

It's been a long, slow slide for months now. Look at the current chart at the head of this topic. As I wrote there, "Any questions?"


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: zby on September 15, 2011, 08:52:27 PM
...
I've been saying that since June 11, 2011 (http://www.downside.com/), three days after the bubble burst and the price had dropped from $30 to $17. "There's no revenue model here. All growth comes only from new investors. This is a bubble in its pure form."
...

Well - there is a revenue model - it is the same as with any other currency - or with any other payment system, the system enables new trades each one of them generates some profit.  Of course nobody even tries to come up with numbers for this - in that sense I agree that this is a bubble.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: P4man on September 15, 2011, 08:58:40 PM
Put another way, who fucking knows what will happen!?  It's fascinating to speculate about, but any sort of "return-to-mean, ldo" hypothesis, intrinsic value hypothesis or other chart-whisperer hypothesis probably has no basis here.  We need to think way, way outside of those boxes because the supply and demand functions of Bitcoin don't answer to the same fundamentals we are accustomed to seeing in other commodities.

Amen. The whole notion that $4 or $5 is cheap while $30 would be high is, quite frankly, laughable. Its not a stock you can measure against P/E ratio's, its not a national currency you can measure against gross domestic product. There really isnt any yardstick.

Or maybe there is, its the amount of trade conducted with BTC. Any sustainable demand for BTC will come from trade (not speculation). At the moment, there is almost none. You cant buy a bloody thing with it, and next to no one uses it buy goods or services. As such, even $5 for a bitcoin today is probably way too high. $4.9 of that is speculation But its anyone's guess how much real world trade will be conducted using bitcoins over the next years. You can guess that fairly well with euro's or dollars, but no one can even have a clue  about BTC trade volume in 2013 let alone 2020. And that is what you need to know to make at least an educated guess about what BTCs should be worth. Give me that number and Ill tell you if $0.05 or $50,000 is high or low.



Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Minsc on September 15, 2011, 09:09:40 PM
Amen. The whole notion that $4 or $5 is cheap while $30 would be high is, quite frankly, laughable. Its not a stock you can measure against P/E ratio's, its not a national currency you can measure against gross domestic product. There really isnt any yardstick.

It's based on how much someone will pay for it.

I'd personally love to buy a million coins for $30 each and if I had $31 million dollars I seriously would.  ($1 million extra for the Gox fees).

I don't have pretty much anything moneywise to buy coins or I'd be buying them back to $8.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: P4man on September 15, 2011, 09:29:49 PM
Quote
It's based on how much someone will pay for it.

No, that is the spot price. Speculation of future value fuels it, panic removes it. Results are endless booms and busts looking for an equilibrium thats based on its value as a transaction tool, since it has no other intrinsic value.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: ElectricMucus on September 15, 2011, 09:39:30 PM
Quote
It's based on how much someone will pay for it.

No, that is the spot price. Speculation of future value fuels it, panic removes it. Results are endless booms and busts looking for an equilibrium thats based on its value as a transaction tool, since it has no other intrinsic value.

The hashchain  can be used to validate the existence of any digital data. Just send some satoshis to it's hash.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Technomage on September 16, 2011, 12:36:09 AM
7200BTC per day is the correct estimation.  You have 50BTC per 10 minutes - that is 6 * 50BTC = 300BTC per hour and 300 * 24 = 7200 per day.
No, it isn't. I was talking about the actual amount miners sell, not the amount that is mined. That was evident from my previous posts. It's obvious that the amount mined is 7200.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: grod on September 16, 2011, 02:27:43 AM
7200BTC per day is the correct estimation.  You have 50BTC per 10 minutes - that is 6 * 50BTC = 300BTC per hour and 300 * 24 = 7200 per day.
No, it isn't. I was talking about the actual amount miners sell, not the amount that is mined. That was evident from my previous posts. It's obvious that the amount mined is 7200.

And the amount actually sold matters less than you think.  I can estimate that at a minimum 200k coins made their way to MtGox since the last hack until the hacks which caused the spike to 7.7 Sunday.   That was enough to bring us from $17.5 to $4.5.

What is more relevant is the total number of coins has increased, and continues increasing at a fairly steady rate.  Unless there's something to cause the total market cap of the bitcoin ecosystem to increase those 210,000 coins are monthly pressure to the downside. 

People are $35,000 richer today than yesterday, even if it's on paper.  Unless more money gets deposited to keep the pyramid propped up that value came from existing buy-and-holders.

I don't have hard numbers.   I do know we had 500k coins in MtGox's account when it was last hacked.  I do know 75% of mining power is new, and those people (like me) got in for dollars.  A million coins have been mined since the $32 high, and even .2% of that amount is enough to move the price 10% today.



Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Technomage on September 16, 2011, 01:03:52 PM
I don't have hard numbers.   I do know we had 500k coins in MtGox's account when it was last hacked.  I do know 75% of mining power is new, and those people (like me) got in for dollars.  A million coins have been mined since the $32 high, and even .2% of that amount is enough to move the price 10% today.
We can agree to disagree but this doesn't change anything. Fact is that people were holding other 6 million coins while the seventh was mined. The miner effect is undoubtedly smaller, significantly smaller, than the effect from constant back and forth trade from traders and speculators, and the unloading of large amounts by early adopters and long term / mid term investors.

In fact, I think that recently the selling of stolen coins has been almost as significant as what the miners have sold. But this can be debated. I don't think that the miner effect is irrelevant, I simply think it's significantly overrated. Now, during the decline of the economy, the effect has been larger but it'll soon be negated (by increased demand) as it has been in the past.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Bigpiggy01 on September 23, 2011, 04:01:05 PM
Quote
Are we suffering yet?

Actually  not. Atm I'm feeling pretty good, at least semi-bullish and am thinking of another mining rig funded by the swings of the last week or so ;D


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: grod on September 24, 2011, 05:21:31 AM
Yeah, everyone's bullish.  Hash rate starting to climb on deepbit.  But price isn't really going where I'd like to sell at. 

Permabulls need to stop talking up the price and start depositing more money.  A lot more.  And they need to do it before thanksgiving/xmas holidays hit and we get "the usual" just like we do every long weekend.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Cluster2k on September 24, 2011, 12:37:46 PM
Permabulls need to stop talking up the price and start depositing more money.  A lot more.  And they need to do it before thanksgiving/xmas holidays hit and we get "the usual" just like we do every long weekend.

Bulls will deposit money into bitcoins if they see value.  No value?  No extra money.  Plenty of people are doing their utmost to talk bitcoins up on this forum, but only money truly counts.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: JonHind on September 24, 2011, 01:18:25 PM
I stopped mining and trading over a month ago. I transferred my USD to my bank and my remaining bitcoins are stored in an offline USB stick. I see them as free tokens, saved in the hope that something comes of bitcoin. I made more than enough money during the bubble to cover the costs of the hardware and electricity (and more).

At the moment, bitcoin is synonymous with scammers, cheats and thieves - or worse, dominated by people who have absolutely zero business acumen. I can see why the bubble is bursting.

Bitcoin is/was a good idea, but it was screwed over by greed, crime, incompetence and general human nature.

Will bitcoin survive? Only time will tell. I'm just very glad that I have no real money tied up in it any more.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: idontknow on September 24, 2011, 02:08:15 PM
Permabulls need to stop talking up the price and start depositing more money.  A lot more.  And they need to do it before thanksgiving/xmas holidays hit and we get "the usual" just like we do every long weekend.

Bulls will deposit money into bitcoins if they see value.  No value?  No extra money.

Also:

No extra money = No extra money.

What i mean is there might be bulls that desperately WANT to put money in but don't have any spare at the moment.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Bigpiggy01 on September 24, 2011, 02:26:16 PM
Quote
What i mean is there might be bulls that desperately WANT to put money in but don't have any spare at the moment.

+1 Some of us also have stupid funding times depending on our locations :(


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: teukon on September 24, 2011, 03:16:36 PM
I stopped mining and trading over a month ago. I transferred my USD to my bank and my remaining bitcoins are stored in an offline USB stick. I see them as free tokens, saved in the hope that something comes of bitcoin. I made more than enough money during the bubble to cover the costs of the hardware and electricity (and more).

At the moment, bitcoin is synonymous with scammers, cheats and thieves - or worse, dominated by people who have absolutely zero business acumen. I can see why the bubble is bursting.

Bitcoin is/was a good idea, but it was screwed over by greed, crime, incompetence and general human nature.

Will bitcoin survive? Only time will tell. I'm just very glad that I have no real money tied up in it any more.

Decentralised systems tend to take much longer to reach a satisfactory level of quality than systems created and controlled by an agent.  The mechanic of the first is evolution whereas that of the second is intelligent design.

Human nature is human nature, there's no getting away from it.  For me, Bitcoin is not so much synonymous with scammers, cheats, and thieves as it is with freedom and bravery.

Will Bitcoin survive? only time will tell.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Edward50 on October 17, 2011, 05:53:33 AM
TO OP, yes I think they are all suffering. I warned to.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: grod on October 17, 2011, 06:46:11 AM
Another fantastic day yielding another 20% return on original investment.  If this is suffering then consider me a masochist!


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: memvola on October 17, 2011, 07:07:27 AM
Human nature is human nature, there's no getting away from it.  For me, Bitcoin is not so much synonymous with scammers, cheats, and thieves as it is with freedom and bravery.

I think it's worth noting that we are so much used to centralized systems that social associations with Bitcoin decentralized systems in general affects our judgement more than it needs to. Whatever associations Bitcoin might get to carry, whatever it will be traded for, it will still be there for us that have a legitimate and practical use for it. Some of us have been thinking about and hoping for such a system to arise for a long time. For someone who has been thinking about this before it happened, it's a too brilliant and elegant idea to just be left by itself. I would lose a huge portion of my hope for humanity if Bitcoin did die.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: S3052 on October 17, 2011, 09:34:43 AM
Another fantastic day yielding another 20% return on original investment.  If this is suffering then consider me a masochist!

Congrats.
Did you short on bitcoinica?


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: gewure on October 17, 2011, 10:56:09 AM
Another fantastic day yielding another 20% return on original investment.  If this is suffering then consider me a masochist!

Congrats.
Did you short on bitcoinica?

whate else.

like every second wise-crack inside this forum advocating the total-death of bitcoin (you must know it since you shortsell it to death, don't you?)

bitcointalk seems to me increasingly like a selffullfilling prophency of the bitcoin death. no more enthusiasms but increasing zynical shortselling and making profit with killing the only real quality alternative currency having potential to change world economy. great job! hope you greed makes you happy.

as long as a majority of members inside here play daytrader and shortbetter and whatever, but on the same hand are esotherikc "the bitcoin death is neeeear"-folks, i really really don't wonder why the course of BTC is sinking rapidly.

but i have to say: i hate it if something goes down not out of fundamentals, but because people are (bitcoin)talkING it to death!! and that is what you do! you say "THE COURSE WILL GO UNDER 0,5$!!!" and encourage everybody to sell with that. what happens?! the course goes to under 0,5$!

..but that is nothing near fundamental conservative trading, that is just manipulating speculation, and you know that! so stop it. just don't paint the devil onto the wall all the time, it just helps the shortseller on bitoinca, nobody else!

thanks


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: BadBear on October 17, 2011, 12:01:13 PM
Another fantastic day yielding another 20% return on original investment.  If this is suffering then consider me a masochist!

Congrats.
Did you short on bitcoinica?

whate else.

like every second wise-crack inside this forum advocating the total-death of bitcoin (you must know it since you shortsell it to death, don't you?)

bitcointalk seems to me increasingly like a selffullfilling prophency of the bitcoin death. no more enthusiasms but increasing zynical shortselling and making profit with killing the only real quality alternative currency having potential to change world economy. great job! hope you greed makes you happy.

as long as a majority of members inside here play daytrader and shortbetter and whatever, but on the same hand are esotherikc "the bitcoin death is neeeear"-folks, i really really don't wonder why the course of BTC is sinking rapidly.

but i have to say: i hate it if something goes down not out of fundamentals, but because people are (bitcoin)talkING it to death!! and that is what you do! you say "THE COURSE WILL GO UNDER 0,5$!!!" and encourage everybody to sell with that. what happens?! the course goes to under 0,5$!

..but that is nothing near fundamental conservative trading, that is just manipulating speculation, and you know that! so stop it. just don't paint the devil onto the wall all the time, it just helps the shortseller on bitoinca, nobody else!

thanks


Yes the power of positivity will bring btc back  ::)

Everybody hold hands!  We'll have a rally circle!


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Revalin on October 17, 2011, 12:09:01 PM
like every second wise-crack inside this forum advocating the total-death of bitcoin

Let me stand up as one of the people who's glad to see it falling.

I don't want Bitcoin to die at all.  I just want the wild-eyed speculation that's turned it into a pyramid to die.  I'm after a decentralized transactional currency and until we have some stability here or in another cryptocurrency, I'm stuck doing my business with international wire transfers and other traditional banking bothers.  The longer people are hung up on trying to pump the price the longer I have to wait for the speculators to wash out of the market.

Quote
but i have to say: i hate it if something goes down not out of fundamentals, but because people are (bitcoin)talkING it to death!! and that is what you do! you say "THE COURSE WILL GO UNDER 0,5$!!!" and encourage everybody to sell with that. what happens?! the course goes to under 0,5$!

I've been talking fundamentals for a while, and here's my formula:

A = USD-value of goods and services purchased per day in BTC
B = Number of days buyers and sellers hold the coins before and after a transaction
C = Number of coins in circulation
D = Number of coins hoarded by (speculators/early adopters/whatever)

Fundamental price = A * B / (C - D)

When we hit that floor (I estimate it's well under a buck, probably in the low-cents range), it will not matter how much people preach doom and gloom; the price WILL stop falling, guaranteed.  It'll cushion well above that level (B and D will increase), but that's the hard floor.

Attempting to hold it higher by encouraging D while we're still far above the fundamental price increases volatility and increases the amount we're subsidizing miners, and ultimately just shifts who's holding the bag.

If you want a healthy market, focus on A.  As long as A increases, Bitcoin has a future, and the price will stabilize.  Without it, all the happy posts in the world won't save anything.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: mobodick on October 17, 2011, 12:16:34 PM
no more enthusiasms but increasing zynical shortselling and making profit with killing the only real quality alternative currency having potential to change world economy. great job! hope you greed makes you happy.

If you think that bitcoin is a quality currency that has potential to change the world then you are seriously delusioned.
..just saying.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: fivebells on October 17, 2011, 12:19:35 PM
I've been talking fundamentals for a while, and here's my formula:

A = USD-value of goods and services purchased per day in BTC
B = Number of days buyers and sellers hold the coins before and after a transaction
C = Number of coins in circulation
D = Number of coins hoarded by (speculators/early adopters/whatever)

Fundamental price = A * B / (C - D)
  Totally agree with your reasoning on a conceptual level, but could you explain the product A*B in a little more detail?


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Nesetalis on October 17, 2011, 01:11:31 PM
some one go panic sell on virwox! :O i want to make more money!


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Revalin on October 17, 2011, 02:04:41 PM
Totally agree with your reasoning on a conceptual level, but could you explain the product A*B in a little more detail?

Sure.

I'm starting with the assumption that Bitcoin is used for transactions, not as a long-term value store (though the formula allows a transition to a value store - B increases).  I think that's an accurate description of people who currently want to use Bitcoin for purchases - they trade fiat in, go shopping, buy their product, and the seller trades back to fiat.  The duration of "go shopping" is B, and the sum of everyone's daily "buy their product" is A.

A * B is the total value that needs to be stored in Bitcoins for this to occur.  It's somewhat related to the market cap.



An example in a highly stable, steady-state market:

Let's say that someone is selling paper clips for USD$1-equivalent, and they sell 3 per day, and that's the entire BTC economy.  A = $3 .  The average buyer obtains coins, shops for two days, spends, the seller holds them for one day, sells back to fiat on an exchange.  B = 3.  There are 30 total BTC that have been mined.  C = 30.  There are 12 BTC out of active circulation: some are lost, some are hoarded, whatever; they're not in use.  D = 12.

Each day you will see:

Buyer1 buys 6BTC at USD$0.50 (total USD$3.00)
Buyer2 holds 6BTC.
Buyer3 buys 3 paper clips for 6BTC.
Seller goes from 6BTC to 12BTC, then dumps 6BTC (yesterday's paperclip revenue) on the market for USD$0.50/BTC = USD$3.00.
Hoarder holds their 12BTC, same as always.

At the end of the day you have 12BTC between Buyer1 and Buyer2; Seller has 6 BTC, having sold his other 6 to Buyer1; Hoarder has 12 BTC; total 30 BTC.  The price holds steady at $0.50/BTC, as predicted by the formula: ($3 * 3) / (30 - 12) = ($9 stored value) / (18 coins) = $0.50 per BTC.  The cycle repeats each day.



So what happens if the numbers start changing?  

Let's drop the price to $0.25/BTC.  Seller raises his price to 4BTC/paperclip.  Buyer3 still wants his paperclips today, and Buyer2 knows he wants some soon, so they go back to the market and bid against Buyer1 to get some more BTCs to complete their purchase.  The price gets run up until it hits equilibrium again.

Let's raise the price to $1/BTC.  Seller lowers his price to 1BTC/paperclip.  If Seller is still dumping yesterday's revenues on the market, the price drops - more BTCs available, and buyers don't need as many, so supply+demand does its thing.  If Seller instead decides to hold, B increases, and the price stabilizes higher.  If he doesn't think it's stable long-term, he gradually trades out faster than his revenues come in - IE, B gradually decreases - and the market price gradually falls (along with his gradually raising his price BTC/paperclip).

Let's say there's a run on paperclips: Buyers now want 10BTC to buy 5 paperclips each (A=$5).  The BTC are not available on the exchange, so the USD/BTC (and BTC/paperclip) runs up until the market stores enough value for the buyers.  Assuming B remains at 3, the total value store required (A * B) is USD$15.  Thus the fundamental price goes to ($5 * 3) / (30-12) = USD$0.83/BTC.



So what do I want?  More A; that's your economy!  And more B - with stable value people will hold their BTC longer before cycling them back to fiat, perhaps even going through several product purchases between exchanges to fiat.

D is currently large, but shrinking due to capitulation; the rate of shrink directly forces the market down.  Fortunately there's a limited supply of D, and it will gradually become less of a factor.

My argument about the very low fundamental price comes down to B.  With current volatility, buyers don't want to hold their coins very long at all.  We just want to buy paperclips and leave the currency risk to the speculators.  B is extremely short (days at best), and that's going to seriously limit the price floor.



Want to try some real numbers?

A = USD$10,000 per day
B = 3 days
C = 7,500,000
D = 90% (generous!) = 6,750,000

Pf = (10,000 * 3) / (7,500,000 - 6,750,000) = $0.04

Ouch.  We won't actually hit that price, but figuring for a 10x cushion, $0.40 is completely plausible.  On the other hand it'll go lower if merchants don't adopt Bitcoin and A goes down.

Work on A, people, and stop fantasizing about bouncebacks and rockets to the moon.  It's not happening until the fundamentals improve.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: anu on October 17, 2011, 02:36:16 PM

Bitcoin is over. If you're not out, get out. The last ones to leave will be the worst off.


Yes, get out. I want to buy 6 Million @ 0.1


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Revalin on October 17, 2011, 02:38:47 PM
I really like your formula, it makes sense. But is there any way to know the values of these numbers? How do you even estimate them?

There's no accurate way to measure them, but I can make some educated guesses.

A - How much money is going to BiddingPond, alpaca socks, Bit-Pay, TSR, donations to WikiLeaks, etc?  The auctions we can get a good estimate on (I haven't tried other than looking at them in an unscientific way), but the others are hard.   I'm guessing $300k/month = $10k/day, but perhaps that's a little conservative.  Does anyone think that there's more than $1M of purchase volume per month?

B - 3 days is based on my own use - I want to trade in, then spend my BTC ASAP.  However inconvenience (people buying BTC for cash in person, etc) means that they tend to be held longer.  The 1% friction is negligible in a market that sees 20% intraday volatility.

C - Known.  7,482,000 and slowly rising.

D - The best metric of velocity is Bitcoin Days Destroyed (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Days_Destroyed), and we know what Gox's volume is, but that's still an incomplete picture: we can't tell how much of that is sold from Disillusioned Hoarders and Capitulating Speculators, or how much is bought by Buyers vs New Suckers; there aren't even clean lines between these archetypes, since we all have mixed goals.  I'm guessing that 90% of BTC is held for speculation for whatever reason, rather than to be spent purchasing goods and services.

You can push these numbers around some, but it's hard to make a realistic scenario for a sky-high Pf.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Nagle on October 17, 2011, 06:49:23 PM
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=90&i=&c=0&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0
Bitcoin/USD, last 4 months. Any questions?

I'm the original poster in this topic. I called the collapse of Bitcoin on June 11, 2011. (http://www.downside.com)  I wrote "Bitcoin, the new "digital currency", looks like a Ponzi scheme. Only Ponzi schemes chart like that. When Ponzi schemes crash, they crash fast, and they crash all the way." "There's no revenue model here. All growth comes only from new investors. This is a bubble in its pure form."

It's been all downhill since then. The price was $17 then. It's dropped $4 per month for the last four months.  It's at $2.52 now.

Our criterion for "Dead" on Downside was when the price was off 90% from the high. Bitcoin is now dead.

We warned you. You didn't listen.

If you have substantial cash in an exchange, get it out now. We're going to find out quite soon which exchanges have all the customer's cash and which don't.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: xxxcoin on October 17, 2011, 07:04:35 PM
... Bitcoin is now dead.
...

Does this mean you are done posting now?

After all, why beat a dead horse?


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: anu on October 17, 2011, 07:16:50 PM
... Bitcoin is now dead.
...

Does this mean you are done posting now?

After all, why beat a dead horse?

+1


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: fivebells on October 17, 2011, 07:17:38 PM
...the sum of everyone's daily "buy their product" is A.
Thanks; that was the part I was missing.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: HappyFunnyFoo on October 17, 2011, 07:30:54 PM
NAGLE: YOU ARE THE MAN!!  I ALSO TRIED WARNING THESE CHUMPS A FEW MONTHS AGO.  THEY DIDN'T LISTEN.

TO THE REST OF YOU DENIERS: HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: evoorhees on October 17, 2011, 07:57:09 PM
NAGLE: YOU ARE THE MAN!!  I ALSO TRIED WARNING THESE CHUMPS A FEW MONTHS AGO.  THEY DIDN'T LISTEN.

TO THE REST OF YOU DENIERS: HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH

Of course... if either Nagle or Foo was confident in their predictive ability, they would've shorted btc at 5:1 leverage on Bitcoinica and made a fortune. They can still short if they're confident. But I'm guessing they prefer to make predictions without backing them.

Enjoy your euphemism. The rest of us are building stuff.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Technomage on October 17, 2011, 08:29:24 PM
I think Bitcoin is reborn when people like Nagle simply stop posting and forget about it.

In reality it is as far from dead it has ever been.

Maybe now a larger percentage of Bitcoin users will use it instead of thinking it's a good investment vehicle.

Change of hands is good for the long term.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: thisisgil on October 17, 2011, 08:37:54 PM
What is funny is that I recall when btc dropped from $20ish to around $14, there were tools on the #bitcoin irc chat room telling everyone that the price would hit $75 by the end of the year.

They've all gone a bit quiet lately......


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: quartz92 on October 17, 2011, 08:39:52 PM
You honestly shouldn't trust what anyone says


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Technomage on October 17, 2011, 08:59:28 PM
Well, to be fair, they could be partially right. It's entirely possible that BTC will hit $75 some day in the future, but it definitely won't be this year. The funny thing with all the laughing at losers is that the iron stomach holders could eventually be the big winners, we simply don't know. You've only lost if you sell with a loss and don't buy back.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Shawshank on October 17, 2011, 09:39:46 PM
You have to keep in mind that the Bitcoin supply is expanding at 35% per year (7200 BTC generated every day with a current BTC supply of 7.5 million). This fact pushes the prices down, but it will not be for long. By 2013, the expansion of Bitcoin money supply will be reduced to around 10%. Most importantly, you can be sure that Bitcoins will be a scarce commodity.

The Bitcoin network has been designed in the elegant way of being self-sustainable. If the BTC/US$ rate goes down, difficulty adjusts accordingly and miners will keep the system alive at a rate for which they are satisfied to mine.

The Bitcoin protocol adjusts itself to the ups and downs of the exchange rate, so I am confident that Bitcoin will prevail, and I believe it may definitely be a really sound investment in the long term.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Edward50 on October 17, 2011, 09:47:30 PM
NAGLE: YOU ARE THE MAN!!  I ALSO TRIED WARNING THESE CHUMPS A FEW MONTHS AGO.  THEY DIDN'T LISTEN.

TO THE REST OF YOU DENIERS: HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH HA AAHAH HA HA HA HAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH

I am with you also, just read my previous posts, you will see I have been warning people since the $30 dollar mark. Had many threads specifically about warning people. So I am enjoying the drop full heart-idly. This makes my day so happy watching the price drop to nothing. All the hate I got for simply just trying to help people and save them money, was it really warranted?

We were right about bitcoin, they were wrong.

Now we can enjoy these chumps losing all their money.

 


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: nrd525 on October 17, 2011, 09:51:10 PM
I wrote my bubble post back on June 3, 2011: 
http://www.campusactivism.org/blog/node/351

I'm currently up 50% on my (very small) investment in bitcoinica.



Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: dree12 on October 18, 2011, 12:41:44 AM
A*B / (C-D)
I think this formula has a feedback loop. As bitcoin value halves, A will also half - causing the fundamental value to half, and so it's like a moving floor. Am I missing anything here?


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: cbeast on October 18, 2011, 12:45:15 AM

Bitcoin is over. If you're not out, get out. The last ones to leave will be the worst off.


Yes, get out. I want to buy 6 Million @ 0.1

I will outbid you at 0.11  :D


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: netrin on October 18, 2011, 01:41:57 AM
You have to keep in mind that the Bitcoin supply is expanding at 35% per year (7200 BTC generated every day with a current BTC supply of 7.5 million).
No, it's not worth keeping in mind. That 0.1% daily monetary inflation is insignificant to btc price movement which has depreciated 1.5% daily since June.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: grod on October 18, 2011, 02:05:18 AM
Looks like volatility is dying down, we're going to be doing the flatline stagnation thing.  Whew.  Time to enjoy a few well-deserved days of no 30% drops.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Nagle on October 18, 2011, 02:40:21 AM
Of course... if either Nagle or Foo was confident in their predictive ability, they would've shorted btc at 5:1 leverage on Bitcoinica and made a fortune. They can still short if they're confident. But I'm guessing they prefer to make predictions without backing them.

If there had been Bitcoin options in June, offered by a counterparty strong enough to pay off if the price tanked, I would have bought some.

Bitcoinica is only a month old, and already their customers are complaining about troubles getting money out.  I wouldn't deal with any options dealer who didn't have a contractual commitment to settle by day T+3.  I suspect that a lot of people are going to end up holding the bag when the exchanges shut down.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Cluster2k on October 18, 2011, 03:09:11 AM
Of course... if either Nagle or Foo was confident in their predictive ability, they would've shorted btc at 5:1 leverage on Bitcoinica and made a fortune. They can still short if they're confident. But I'm guessing they prefer to make predictions without backing them.

If there had been Bitcoin options in June, offered by a counterparty strong enough to pay off if the price tanked, I would have bought some.

Bitcoinica is only a month old, and already their customers are complaining about troubles getting money out.  I wouldn't deal with any options dealer who didn't have a contractual commitment to settle by day T+3.  I suspect that a lot of people are going to end up holding the bag when the exchanges shut down.

Bitcoin also had a few 25%+ intra day upward swings on the way down too.  Just one or two of those events could have wiped out any position with Bitcoinica.

The market is too small and immature to provide a serious short selling service.  I doubt one will thrive with the current volatility.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: grod on October 18, 2011, 03:09:36 AM
Moreover, it was only a couple of days ago that you could fund your bitcoinica account with BTC (as opposed to money).  Until then it was too much work for me to do that, even though I too was beating the bear drum.

The other problem with shorting: the money making premise is based on the fact that something is overvalued.  When there's no rational tie between pricing and value what's to keep it from becoming vastly more overvalued before it crashes?  5:1 leverage is very much a double edged sword.  You could get a margin call and lose a fortune while still being right.  

Add to that unlimited downside with limited upside and it takes iron discipline to trade short.  A short position is not something you can leave open while not looking.




Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: proudhon on October 18, 2011, 03:37:06 AM
Looks like volatility is dying down, we're going to be doing the flatline stagnation thing.  Whew.  Time to enjoy a few well-deserved days of no 30% drops.


Yeah, I like the breaks between the drops.  Oh, see you at $1.80 after the next drop.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Crypt_Current on June 12, 2013, 07:13:16 AM
' "The bitcoin's value will inevitably increase." (Bazil). "Regular use of Bitcoins will pick up pace, it's inevitable."  '

These in a mocking tone from the OP are soooooo hilarious to me now  :D :D :D

Anyone reading this:  Nagle apparently hasn't been seen around here for awhile, so I dunno how he/she/it is doing and I genuinely hope it's "not too bad" ...  But it's just awesome on a personal note that for once in my mostly miserable life, I'm able to tell everyone I know and ever knew (about any arbitrary thing) that:  "I Told You So".  In a BIG way  :D

Seriously, I hope Nagle is ok.

Man, necro-bumping is fun!   ;D


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: worldinacoin on June 12, 2013, 07:14:54 AM
There are tons of such doomsayers threads.  It is up to the individual to buy or sell.  Do not get influence by them.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Rampion on June 12, 2013, 07:24:47 AM
We have to admit at that time, this kind of posts caused discomfort among everybody. BTC had never proved to be able to resist what he was facing: bubble pop followed by slow and continuous decline, negative media exposure, etc... We all knew it was not a "ponzi", but still, it was not empirically proved that it could resist the stress it was under.

This is why I always say that this is no 2011. This time the doomsayers are mocked. Most of the people is sure that BTC will rise again stronger sooner or later, even if it goes to single digits for a while (which won't happen IMO). The ones who sold, are just waiting for cheaper coins to load the truck. The "bitcoin is a ponzi" has empirically proved as a false statement, nobody with half a brain could say such a thing in 2013. In 2011 it was different.

Bubbles have to burst all the way down before growth is resumed. But this time the bottom will be higher than most 2011-butthurt-bears expect.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Crypt_Current on June 12, 2013, 07:28:59 AM
There are tons of such doomsayers threads.  It is up to the individual to buy or sell.  Do not get influence by them.

Just want to point out for clarity's sake that this thread was very recently necrobumped from 9/2011


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: lucas.sev on June 12, 2013, 07:37:29 AM
So they were right? Bubble did not deflate completely and it dropped 2.5 times further down?


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Crypt_Current on June 12, 2013, 07:42:23 AM
So they were right? Bubble did not deflate completely and it dropped 2.5 times further down?

Yep and it's gonna happen exactly the same way again!  Right now!


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: lucas.sev on June 12, 2013, 07:53:09 AM
So they were right? Bubble did not deflate completely and it dropped 2.5 times further down?

Yep and it's gonna happen exactly the same way again!  Right now!

I wish, but it seems that the slide will continue, sudden drops will get corrected to levels only a little bit lower than where we dropped from and this is how it is going to deflate over next months :(


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: justusranvier on June 12, 2013, 07:55:06 AM
So they were right? Bubble did not deflate completely and it dropped 2.5 times further down?
Few people in the thread were entirely right. Nagle certainly wasn't.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=&c=1&s=2011-09-11&e=2011-11-18&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

I'm the original poster in this topic. I called the collapse of Bitcoin on June 11, 2011. (http://www.downside.com)  I wrote "Bitcoin, the new "digital currency", looks like a Ponzi scheme. Only Ponzi schemes chart like that. When Ponzi schemes crash, they crash fast, and they crash all the way." "There's no revenue model here. All growth comes only from new investors. This is a bubble in its pure form."

It's been all downhill since then. The price was $17 then. It's dropped $4 per month for the last four months.  It's at $2.52 now.

Our criterion for "Dead" on Downside was when the price was off 90% from the high. Bitcoin is now dead.

We warned you. You didn't listen.

If you have substantial cash in an exchange, get it out now. We're going to find out quite soon which exchanges have all the customer's cash and which don't.
He called bitcoin "dead" $0.52 and 30 days away from the two year low from which we haven't come remotely close to having seen again.

This is the best call in the entire thread.

Of course... if either Nagle or Foo was confident in their predictive ability, they would've shorted btc at 5:1 leverage on Bitcoinica and made a fortune. They can still short if they're confident. But I'm guessing they prefer to make predictions without backing them.

Enjoy your euphemism. The rest of us are building stuff.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=&c=1&s=2011-09-11&e=2013-06-13&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Crypt_Current on June 12, 2013, 07:55:16 AM
So they were right? Bubble did not deflate completely and it dropped 2.5 times further down?

Yep and it's gonna happen exactly the same way again!  Right now!

I wish, but it seems that the slide will continue, sudden drops will get corrected to levels only a little bit lower than where we dropped from and this is how it is going to deflate over next months :(

Turn that frown upside down!  This is a happy necrobump!  ;D  :D  ;)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: lucas.sev on June 12, 2013, 07:58:36 AM
So they were right? Bubble did not deflate completely and it dropped 2.5 times further down?

Yep and it's gonna happen exactly the same way again!  Right now!

I wish, but it seems that the slide will continue, sudden drops will get corrected to levels only a little bit lower than where we dropped from and this is how it is going to deflate over next months :(

Turn that frown upside down!  This is a happy necrobump!  ;D  :D  ;)

I don't know, people seem to focus too much on OMG LOL 5 DOLLA WAS EXPENSIVE AND NOW ITS 100!!1111 instead of the fact that people who listened, waited for two months and invested only after the long-term sideways motion began and full capitulation phase was reached (1/16) from the top made much much much more money.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Crypt_Current on June 12, 2013, 07:59:05 AM

This is the best call in the entire thread.

Of course... if either Nagle or Foo was confident in their predictive ability, they would've shorted btc at 5:1 leverage on Bitcoinica and made a fortune. They can still short if they're confident. But I'm guessing they prefer to make predictions without backing them.

Enjoy your euphemism. The rest of us are building stuff.

Agreed (with your entire post; I just snipped it for readability)

This was shortly before that meelba incident too... or around the same time.  Bitcoinica provided a great service... in a real bear market.  Wonder how Bitfinex is doing...


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: bitbybit2 on June 12, 2013, 08:40:45 AM
Why not get out of US dollar market that depends solely on 70 percent of  American consumers. :) Anyways bitcoin was worth nothing when it started and I could read 4 year old literature which pegs bitcoin to 15 dollars. :D


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: solex on June 12, 2013, 09:06:28 AM

Someone mentioned it recently, that the 2013 "bubble" deflate is more like the August 2012 shock than the 2011 bubble.
If so, then it could easily oscillate around $100-$120 for the rest of year, only to begin a further climb in 2014.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Rampion on June 12, 2013, 09:58:40 AM

Someone mentioned it recently, that the 2013 "bubble" deflate is more like the August 2012 shock than the 2011 bubble.
If so, then it could easily oscillate around $100-$120 for the rest of year, only to begin a further climb in 2014.

In that case more than a bubble deflating it would just have been a correction.

Honestly, that could be still possible, but I don't think so - the hype cycle and speculative mania in March-April was so blatant I doubt we won't see further visits to $80, possibly $50, I won't even discard going deeper than $50 for a bit (but not much deeper, and if I'd have to take a bet, I'd bet that we won't go lower than $50).

This hype cycles always work the same, a lot of new guys are attracted by the parabolic growth, fiat start flowing to exchanges like a river in the rain season, and when the price crashes that money flow just slowly drains out... It's a slow process, fiat pours out of the exchanges slowly, but it pours out because so many of the new guys entered the market just for the quick buck.

Still, there is significant % of the guys attracted by the hype that end up understanding BTC, and they fell in love with it... The core of hardcore-believers is growing, even if the fiat is slowly pouring out. So, we will probably see very cheap coins soon, but nevertheless Bitcoin is stronger than ever.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: solex on June 12, 2013, 10:06:02 AM
Yes. Makes sense.
I think the recent 136 is an important level. If it can top it then the bull-market is still very much on. Similarly, if the recent 88 is breached then a real bear-market is underway.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: RationalSpeculator on June 12, 2013, 10:53:59 AM
We have to admit at that time, this kind of posts caused discomfort among everybody. BTC had never proved to be able to resist what he was facing: bubble pop followed by slow and continuous decline, negative media exposure, etc... We all knew it was not a "ponzi", but still, it was not empirically proved that it could resist the stress it was under.

This is why I always say that this is no 2011. This time the doomsayers are mocked. Most of the people is sure that BTC will rise again stronger sooner or later, even if it goes to single digits for a while (which won't happen IMO). The ones who sold, are just waiting for cheaper coins to load the truck. The "bitcoin is a ponzi" has empirically proved as a false statement, nobody with half a brain could say such a thing in 2013. In 2011 it was different.

Bubbles have to burst all the way down before growth is resumed. But this time the bottom will be higher than most 2011-butthurt-bears expect.

I agree.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Dalib on June 12, 2013, 10:54:33 AM
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940.466666&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=Daily&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=SMA&m1=200&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=1&


shortly:
When I look at the development of Bitcoin prices for 12 months:

Last year in June, it was possible to buy Bitcoin for around $ 5
In January this year about $ 15
in April this year about $ 55
now $ 88

Even if it was half the price than it is now, it would be appreciation of 900%.
This is not a bad investment for me ;)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Rampion on June 12, 2013, 11:20:57 AM
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940.466666&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=Daily&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=SMA&m1=200&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=1&


shortly:
When I look at the development of Bitcoin prices for 12 months:

Last year in June, it was possible to buy Bitcoin for around $ 5
In January this year about $ 15
in April this year about $ 55
now $ 88

Even if it was half the price than it is now, it would be appreciation of 900%.
This is not a bad investment for me ;)

I think Bitcoin it's been a good investment for 99% of the members on this forum. Some noob may have bought at $200 and panic-sold at a loss after the April, 10th crash, getting burned, but IMO that would have been a terrible mistake, as they should have just holded or played with the market to lower their average entry price. Bitcoin's minimum potential is 5 figures of $ per Bitcoin, everybody with half a brain understands that, but it is not a get-rich-quick scheme. There is high volatility and high risks, but also huge potential gains.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: anu on June 12, 2013, 12:14:01 PM


Bitcoin is over.

I've been saying for months

I was right. You were wrong. Now suffer.

I am not much into necrothreads, but I am 100,0% sure we find "Bitcoin is dead" threads with you as OP from 2011.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: molecular on June 12, 2013, 12:35:28 PM
Yes. Makes sense.
I think the recent 136 is an important level. If it can top it then the bull-market is still very much on. Similarly, if the recent 88 is breached then a real bear-market is underway.

I have similar thinking. My trigger levels are farther away, though: $149 for bull and $80 for bear, based on an old analysis from early May which is still valid imo.


http://i.imgur.com/GdlnBdVm.png (http://i.imgur.com/GdlnBdV.png)



Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: bitbybit2 on June 12, 2013, 12:48:21 PM
Where were they when bitcoins reached 200 dollars. Speculators are just out there to show the world that they are imbeciles. They cannot sense how the world perceives them because they are imbeciles.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: chmod755 on June 12, 2013, 12:58:13 PM
Bitcoin is over.

I've been saying for months

I was right. You were wrong. Now suffer.

Hello Nagle,

I just made a transaction and it perfectly works. You are wrong. I'm not suffering.

Goodbye.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: samson on June 12, 2013, 12:59:00 PM
$20-$30 looks reasonable to me if we discount that bubble


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: bitbybit2 on June 12, 2013, 01:13:22 PM
Yes. Makes sense.
I think the recent 136 is an important level. If it can top it then the bull-market is still very much on. Similarly, if the recent 88 is breached then a real bear-market is underway.

I have similar thinking. My trigger levels are farther away, though: $149 for bull and $80 for bear, based on an old analysis from early May which is still valid imo.


http://i.imgur.com/GdlnBdVm.png (http://i.imgur.com/GdlnBdV.png)



Echoes of the past can't be used to predict the future of Bitcoin. It is not a corporation and it doesn't move like it is a corporation.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: bitbybit2 on June 12, 2013, 01:23:37 PM
If you are not out then stay inside. Stay out of the crowd. They think ANOVA or analysis of variance is their forte. Well they haven't even heard of it. 


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: cypherdoc on June 12, 2013, 01:23:57 PM
Y'all really know how to hurt a guy by bringing back all these Nagle threads.

I'll say it again: Nagle is an idiot!


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: oakpacific on June 12, 2013, 04:23:53 PM
So they were right? Bubble did not deflate completely and it dropped 2.5 times further down?
Few people in the thread were entirely right. Nagle certainly wasn't.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=&c=1&s=2011-09-11&e=2011-11-18&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

I'm the original poster in this topic. I called the collapse of Bitcoin on June 11, 2011. (http://www.downside.com)  I wrote "Bitcoin, the new "digital currency", looks like a Ponzi scheme. Only Ponzi schemes chart like that. When Ponzi schemes crash, they crash fast, and they crash all the way." "There's no revenue model here. All growth comes only from new investors. This is a bubble in its pure form."

It's been all downhill since then. The price was $17 then. It's dropped $4 per month for the last four months.  It's at $2.52 now.

Our criterion for "Dead" on Downside was when the price was off 90% from the high. Bitcoin is now dead.

We warned you. You didn't listen.

If you have substantial cash in an exchange, get it out now. We're going to find out quite soon which exchanges have all the customer's cash and which don't.
He called bitcoin "dead" $0.52 and 30 days away from the two year low from which we haven't come remotely close to having seen again.

This is the best call in the entire thread.

Of course... if either Nagle or Foo was confident in their predictive ability, they would've shorted btc at 5:1 leverage on Bitcoinica and made a fortune. They can still short if they're confident. But I'm guessing they prefer to make predictions without backing them.

Enjoy your euphemism. The rest of us are building stuff.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=&c=1&s=2011-09-11&e=2013-06-13&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

He didn't make a right call, what he was saying can never be defined as a "call", just saying it's going to go down doesn't make it a "call", to make a call he has to give a target a priori, which he didn't, it's all hindsight.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Operatr on June 12, 2013, 06:46:27 PM
Well, have fun with your soon to be worthless fiat money then OP. :o



Title: Oh Nagel!
Post by: randrace on June 12, 2013, 06:56:45 PM
http://s15.postimg.org/8fi1lru8r/bitcoin_nagel.jpg


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: justusranvier on June 12, 2013, 07:53:01 PM
He didn't make a right call, what he was saying can never be defined as a "call", just saying it's going to go down doesn't make it a "call", to make a call he has to give a target a priori, which he didn't, it's all hindsight.
I mean in the vernacular sense.

Nagle said Bitcoin was dead, and evorhees said he and others were still building it. Evorhees was correct and Nagle was incorrect.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: wachtwoord on June 12, 2013, 08:49:41 PM
Bitcoin is stronger than ever.

This statement has been true everyday since Bitcoin's conception :)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Brunic on June 13, 2013, 06:18:35 AM
It's funny that the image in the OP is the 2013 chart, not the 2011 one.

I think somebody edited that first post.  ;)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: 01BTC10 on June 13, 2013, 06:20:37 AM
It's funny that the image in the OP is the 2013 chart, not the 2011 one.

I think somebody edited that first post.  ;)
bitcoincharts image are dynamic.  ;)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Brunic on June 13, 2013, 06:22:02 AM
It's funny that the image in the OP is the 2013 chart, not the 2011 one.

I think somebody edited that first post.  ;)
bitcoincharts image are dynamic.  ;)

Oops, should have checked the source. I was sure it was a screenshot  ;D

Sorry for the disturbance, please continue the bear-bull fight.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: 01BTC10 on June 13, 2013, 06:22:58 AM
If you're not out, get out.  :D


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: BitcoinAshley on June 13, 2013, 04:28:26 PM
If you're not out, get out... of fiat.  :D


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: manfred on June 13, 2013, 06:56:39 PM

Low volume and general public losing interest is a worry.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232733.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232733.0)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Crypt_Current on June 13, 2013, 07:02:20 PM
If you're not out, get out... of fiat.  :D

+1

arg I almost feel bad for keeping this thread alive...
Oh well, at least I was there when it happened.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Nekrobios on June 27, 2013, 08:19:03 PM
If you're not out, get out... of fiat.  :D
With everything collapsing against the USD, worst advice ever. :D


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: vokain on June 27, 2013, 08:24:38 PM
If you're not out, get out... of fiat.  :D
With everything collapsing against the USD, worst advice ever. :D

Crazy that just knowing interest rates have to go up sooner or later is causing the dollar to shoot up now, as much as it is


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: blacksmithtm on June 27, 2013, 08:29:10 PM
are you basing this on a graph?


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: vokain on June 27, 2013, 08:34:36 PM
anyone remember
 Smart Money has left the building… Have you? (http://this https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=61101.60)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Imagine on June 28, 2013, 12:26:59 AM
The Bitcoin will never completely collapse as long as sites like the Silkroad and Atlantis are still active. These are the sites that for the most part fuel the bitcoin and will keep it growing. You want an indication of price then look at how well these sites are doing  8)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: BitcoinAshley on June 28, 2013, 02:16:02 AM
If you're not out, get out... of fiat.  :D
With everything collapsing against the USD, worst advice ever. :D


I was unaware that the USD was the only fiat currency in existence, and that a statement referring to all fiat currencies must be directed specifically at the USD....

Do I sense an AMUR'KAN in the room?  ;D ;D ;D


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Frozenlock on June 28, 2013, 02:32:44 AM
USD is the reserve currency of the world.

Makes sense to assume one is talking about it when using the term "fiat".


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Nekrobios on June 28, 2013, 05:42:30 AM
If you're not out, get out... of fiat.  :D
With everything collapsing against the USD, worst advice ever. :D


I was unaware that the USD was the only fiat currency in existence, and that a statement referring to all fiat currencies must be directed specifically at the USD....

Do I sense an AMUR'KAN in the room?  ;D ;D ;D
No, I am European (Euro country). But yes, the USD is obviously insignificant on a global scale. ::)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: molecular on June 28, 2013, 05:57:54 AM
USD is the reserve currency of the world.

Makes sense to assume one is talking about it when using the term "fiat".

All the fiat currencies are racing to the bottom together in this "currency war".

So it makes sense to throw them all in one bucket. It's all basically the same crap, just different color paper.

The current deflationary scare and subsequent rise in fiat value compared to all asset classes is temporary. The central banks cannot taper without too much pain.

There will be some sort of currency reform, I'm pretty sure.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: ElectricMucus on June 28, 2013, 09:07:04 AM
Nagle you can come out now.
Air is clear!  ;)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Jaroslaw on June 28, 2013, 09:10:30 AM
im out but ive saved 600k of BTC for price of 5000$


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: prophetx on June 28, 2013, 09:41:46 AM
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=90&i=&c=0&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0
Bitcoin/USD, last 3 months. Any questions?

Bitcoin is over. If you're not out, get out. The last ones to leave will be the worst off.

I've been saying for months that this was a speculative bubble, a pyramid scheme. I said that when bubbles pop, they pop all the way. There were replies like "troll" and "hater".  "The bitcoin's value will inevitably increase." (Bazil). "Regular use of Bitcoins will pick up pace, it's inevitable." (Goodlord666). There are still people writing comments like that.

I was right. You were wrong. Now suffer.

The OP is from 2 years ago why is this thread even active.... had you listened to this advice 2 yrs ago and sold out you would have lost a ton of cash


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Nekrobios on June 28, 2013, 09:49:59 AM
Only if you didn't buy back in. The point is that you have that choice during a downtrend.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: smoothie on June 28, 2013, 10:09:51 AM
Never keep your eggs in one basket. Litecoin appears to be doing just fine! lol


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: samson on June 28, 2013, 10:12:04 AM
Never keep your eggs in one basket. Litecoin appears to be doing just fine! lol

It does, I bought back in at a recent low.

You've made a couple of good calls about alts in the past - what do you think about DGC ?


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Nekrobios on June 28, 2013, 04:56:44 PM
If you're not out, get out.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: seleme on June 28, 2013, 05:07:16 PM
im out but ive saved 600k of BTC for price of 5000$

YOu became the bigger bullshitter than rpietila and that's some achievement.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Jaroslaw on June 28, 2013, 05:28:43 PM
im out but ive saved 600k of BTC for price of 5000$

YOu became the bigger bullshitter than rpietila and that's some achievement.

you are so wrong sir, but live in your dream :)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Rampion on June 28, 2013, 07:26:39 PM
The OP is from 2 years ago why is this thread even active.... had you listened to this advice 2 yrs ago and sold out you would have lost a ton of cash
Had you listened to this advice 2 years ago and rebought in at 1$ you would have gained a ton of cash.

It never went to $1. It went to $1.98, and to buying back at that price was some sheer luck by someone who got his bids placed there


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: tvbcof on June 30, 2013, 02:23:56 AM
The OP is from 2 years ago why is this thread even active.... had you listened to this advice 2 yrs ago and sold out you would have lost a ton of cash
Had you listened to this advice 2 years ago and rebought in at 1$ you would have gained a ton of cash.

It never went to $1. It went to $1.98, and to buying back at that price was some sheer luck by someone who got his bids placed there

I did (or very close to $2 on the up-side.)  I would not call it luck exactly.  I had to keep buying as the price continued to decline in order to hit the bottom which took some balls.  I ended up with far more BTC than I ever expected to have.  I would have made one more buy if we got into the $1.50 range (and probably still would for that matter.)

I calculated and intuited that the value of the solution in a general sense was much higher than the prices I was buying at, and BTC fell to a much lower number than I would guessed they might.  I also expected that it was more likely than not that I would lose all the money I put in so I kissed the money goodbye in real-time as I speculated.

Relatedly, back when I was buying I decided to 'get whole' when I could do so for less than a 10% loss of my BTC holdings.  This I did.

I decided to take my actual winnings when we got into the 1000-X range (i.e, $2 --> $2000).  I'm still waiting and still considering it to be less likely than a near total loss.  But since I am already 'made whole', I can sell at $0.01 and be ahead.

I estimate that it is more likely that this down-leg will pay off than the 2011 one since the solution is more mature and well tested reducing that risk.  But of course it will be more difficult to obtain the kind of BTC than in 2011.



Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: cbeast on June 30, 2013, 03:13:17 AM
We are definitely in a capitulation cycle. It won't last long because Bitcoin is getting strong and will not be ignored. Bitcoin needs to ROAR!!!


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: vokain on June 30, 2013, 03:31:21 AM
We are definitely in a capitulation cycle. It won't last long because Bitcoin is getting strong and will not be ignored. Bitcoin needs to ROAR!!!

I see either hope (meaning capitulation has already happened) or fear, I don't see real capitulation right now... what leads you to think so? I don't see many dumping their BTC any more


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: tvbcof on June 30, 2013, 03:39:23 AM
We are definitely in a capitulation cycle. It won't last long because Bitcoin is getting strong and will not be ignored. Bitcoin needs to ROAR!!!

I see either hope (meaning capitulation has already happened) or fear, I don't see real capitulation right now... what leads you to think so? I don't see many dumping their BTC any more

Indeed.  Very few people were even cautiously optimistic by the $2.00 bottom in 2011, and that here on this forum which is Bitcoin-centric.  In more mainstream-land Bitcoin was either completely forgotten about or talked about as something which was already a historical footnote.  I see nothing like that sentiment currently, and don't expect it for a while.



Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Elwar on June 30, 2013, 03:55:11 AM
I flushed all of my bitcoins down the toilet.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: cbeast on June 30, 2013, 04:37:34 AM
I flushed all of my bitcoins down the toilet.
That would be a great hiding place. If I did that I would have to make sure the honey wagon doesn't suck them up.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: candoo on June 30, 2013, 12:44:41 PM
If you're not out, get out.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: SaintFlow on June 30, 2013, 01:50:17 PM
Shake shake .... some bears must still be in here.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: molecular on June 30, 2013, 05:54:24 PM
im out but ive saved 600k of BTC for price of 5000$

YOu became the bigger bullshitter than rpietila and that's some achievement.

rpietila wasn't lying like that. He really did believe his 300$/mBTC prediction and he never lied about his holding afaik.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: ElectricMucus on June 30, 2013, 06:14:26 PM
im out but ive saved 600k of BTC for price of 5000$

YOu became the bigger bullshitter than rpietila and that's some achievement.

rpietila wasn't lying like that. He really did believe his 300$/mBTC prediction and he never lied about his holding afaik.


You thought he did, which means he might have just been doing a good job at fooling you.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: favelle75 on June 30, 2013, 09:38:37 PM
Quote
I was right. You were wrong. Now suffer.

OP...so funny.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: rpietila on July 02, 2013, 09:45:41 AM
im out but ive saved 600k of BTC for price of 5000$

YOu became the bigger bullshitter than rpietila and that's some achievement.

rpietila wasn't lying like that. He really did believe his 300$/mBTC prediction and he never lied about his holding afaik.


I am not doing good yet, I admit it. But I still think that it is possible, that bitcoin reaches the importance of gold. Most of you don't think that gold is very important, yet bitcoin does not really need to conquer fiat to reach $300, gold is enough.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Nekrobios on July 02, 2013, 09:48:00 AM
I am not doing good yet, I admit it. But I still think that it is possible, that bitcoin reaches the importance of gold. Most of you don't think that gold is very important, yet bitcoin does not really need to conquer fiat to reach $300, gold is enough.
I agree it's possible, likely even, but not this year, and not the next 5 years. This stuff takes time, people are reigned by habit and singularities simply don't happen.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: bitcon on July 09, 2013, 12:41:02 AM
good thing i didnt get out when i first saw this message, i would have sold low to have to buy back high. 


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Elwar on July 19, 2013, 04:09:21 PM
Looks like Bitcoin has seen its day.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: vokain on July 19, 2013, 04:11:16 PM
Looks like Bitcoin has seen its day.

Oh no do you think it's too late to get out now??


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: justusranvier on July 19, 2013, 09:35:53 PM
If you're not out, get out (of the United States).


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: dopamine on July 19, 2013, 09:52:28 PM
If you're not out, get out (of the United States).
+1

Detroit bankrupt 49 more to go.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: notme on July 19, 2013, 09:55:33 PM
If you're not out, get out (of the United States).
+1

Detroit bankrupt 49 more to go.

49 what?

Detroit is not a state, and there are way more than 50 cities.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: dree12 on July 19, 2013, 09:59:40 PM
If you're not out, get out (of the United States).
+1

Detroit bankrupt 49 more to go.

49 what?

Detroit is not a state, and there are way more than 50 cities.

49 of the 50 most populous cities with at least two t's in the name.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: dopamine on July 19, 2013, 10:00:10 PM
lol  ;D get out


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Rampion on July 19, 2013, 10:02:14 PM
Poor Nagle, pockets full of fiat, feeling lonely and sad because he was left behind and missed the choo choo train...


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: SOSLOVE868 on July 19, 2013, 11:25:45 PM
Full of no sense....let's go back to you fiats and high-weighted Gold... See you ~~


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: chufchuf on July 20, 2013, 06:31:39 PM

Ahh, Nagle in 2011.

Nagle in 2013 is now xhamstering his wishes into a Lehmann collapse of MtGox.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: CurbsideProphet on July 20, 2013, 09:16:04 PM
If you're not out, get out (of the United States).
+1

Detroit bankrupt 49 more to go.

/facepalm

Almost as bad as the guy who thought there were 52 states.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: JimboToronto on July 20, 2013, 09:31:19 PM
Almost as bad as the guy who thought there were 52 states.
You mean the 48 contiguous states plus Alaska, Canada, Hawaii and Mexico?

 ;D


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: jspielberg on July 20, 2013, 09:37:15 PM
Almost as bad as the guy who thought there were 52 states.
You mean the 48 contiguous states plus Alaska, Canada, Hawaii and Mexico?

 ;D

I thought it was Alaska, Hawaii, Iraq and Afghanistan...


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Anon136 on July 20, 2013, 09:38:21 PM
if the price falls forever i will be the last one to get out :)

the ONLY thing that will ever cause me to sell my bitcoins ever is a substantial appreciation in price


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: ElectricMucus on July 20, 2013, 10:24:24 PM
if the price falls forever i will be the last one to get out :)

the ONLY thing that will ever cause me to sell my bitcoins ever is a substantial appreciation in price

If price falls by 99% that still like 1% profit, amirite???


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Walsoraj on July 20, 2013, 10:43:27 PM
if the price falls forever i will be the last one to get out :)

the ONLY thing that will ever cause me to sell my bitcoins ever is a substantial appreciation in price

BTC is going to $10,000 then $100,000. Maybe higher.

Just buy now. The higher the price, the more you can brag to your friends later that you bought when everyone said it was crazy to do so AND YOU PROVED THEM ALL WRONG.

Bragging rights = priceless.

BUY BUY BUY

 :D :D :D


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: MoreFun on July 20, 2013, 10:46:41 PM
Wait for tomorrow, will be cheaper.
Or maybe wait for the day after...  ;D


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: desired_username on July 21, 2013, 05:32:45 PM
necrothread ftw


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: oakpacific on November 27, 2013, 02:40:37 AM
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=90&i=&c=0&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0
Bitcoin/USD, last 3 months. Any questions?

Bitcoin is over. If you're not out, get out. The last ones to leave will be the worst off.

I've been saying for months that this was a speculative bubble, a pyramid scheme. I said that when bubbles pop, they pop all the way. There were replies like "troll" and "hater".  "The bitcoin's value will inevitably increase." (Bazil). "Regular use of Bitcoins will pick up pace, it's inevitable." (Goodlord666). There are still people writing comments like that.

I was right. You were wrong. Now suffer.

Wow, this guy seems to know a thing or two about investment! Did any of you listen to his advice? Or are you suffering because you didn't? ;)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: SOSLOVE868 on November 27, 2013, 02:42:59 AM
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=90&i=&c=0&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0
Bitcoin/USD, last 3 months. Any questions?

Bitcoin is over. If you're not out, get out. The last ones to leave will be the worst off.

I've been saying for months that this was a speculative bubble, a pyramid scheme. I said that when bubbles pop, they pop all the way. There were replies like "troll" and "hater".  "The bitcoin's value will inevitably increase." (Bazil). "Regular use of Bitcoins will pick up pace, it's inevitable." (Goodlord666). There are still people writing comments like that.

I was right. You were wrong. Now suffer.

Wow, this guy seems to know a thing or two about investment! Did any of you listen to his advice? Or are you suffering because you didn't? ;)
I guess this guy is going to hanging his self...


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: BittBurger on November 27, 2013, 02:50:35 AM
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=90&i=&c=0&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0
Bitcoin/USD, last 3 months. Any questions?

Bitcoin is over. If you're not out, get out. The last ones to leave will be the worst off.

I've been saying for months that this was a speculative bubble, a pyramid scheme. I said that when bubbles pop, they pop all the way. There were replies like "troll" and "hater".  "The bitcoin's value will inevitably increase." (Bazil). "Regular use of Bitcoins will pick up pace, it's inevitable." (Goodlord666). There are still people writing comments like that.

I was right. You were wrong. Now suffer.

Lol.  Where is this super smart guy lately?


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: BitcoinTraderFX on November 27, 2013, 02:50:41 AM
Okay, this chart is a cross post, but what the heck, it belongs here.

It shows that buyers are stepping in whenever there is profit taking. The same thing happened at 899 and 900 pricing. Buyers overwhelmed all the sell orders posted there.

But -- at this point in the life of bitcoin (especially), you should not stop being vigilant if you have open positions or large holdings. {End Of Disclaimer}

And now for your regularly scheduled entertainment...

http://www.bitcoincrystalballtrader.com/BitcoinBuyers1126.png


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: oakpacific on November 27, 2013, 02:53:09 AM
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=90&i=&c=0&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0
Bitcoin/USD, last 3 months. Any questions?

Bitcoin is over. If you're not out, get out. The last ones to leave will be the worst off.

I've been saying for months that this was a speculative bubble, a pyramid scheme. I said that when bubbles pop, they pop all the way. There were replies like "troll" and "hater".  "The bitcoin's value will inevitably increase." (Bazil). "Regular use of Bitcoins will pick up pace, it's inevitable." (Goodlord666). There are still people writing comments like that.

I was right. You were wrong. Now suffer.

Lol.  Where is this super smart guy lately?

If you have been paying attention(which you shouldn't ;)), he is still happily trolling away like nothing had happened.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: beetcoin on November 27, 2013, 02:55:12 AM
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=90&i=&c=0&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0
Bitcoin/USD, last 3 months. Any questions?

Bitcoin is over. If you're not out, get out. The last ones to leave will be the worst off.

I've been saying for months that this was a speculative bubble, a pyramid scheme. I said that when bubbles pop, they pop all the way. There were replies like "troll" and "hater".  "The bitcoin's value will inevitably increase." (Bazil). "Regular use of Bitcoins will pick up pace, it's inevitable." (Goodlord666). There are still people writing comments like that.

I was right. You were wrong. Now suffer.

Lol.  Where is this super smart guy lately?

If you have been paying attention(which you shouldn't ;)), he is still happily trolling away like nothing had happened.

i wonder if he really cashed out.. and if he did, he'll be super pissed off and bitter about BTC, so he'll just continue badmouthing it  :D


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: jojo69 on November 27, 2013, 03:01:41 AM
oh man I love these necros, keep 'em coming

and to the OP

hahahahahahahahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAgurk cough cough HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: ElectricMucus on November 27, 2013, 03:06:40 AM
SELL SELL SELL


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: tvbcof on November 27, 2013, 04:32:01 AM
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=90&i=&c=0&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0
Bitcoin/USD, last 3 months. Any questions?

Bitcoin is over. If you're not out, get out. The last ones to leave will be the worst off.

I've been saying for months that this was a speculative bubble, a pyramid scheme. I said that when bubbles pop, they pop all the way. There were replies like "troll" and "hater".  "The bitcoin's value will inevitably increase." (Bazil). "Regular use of Bitcoins will pick up pace, it's inevitable." (Goodlord666). There are still people writing comments like that.

I was right. You were wrong. Now suffer.

Wow, this guy seems to know a thing or two about investment! Did any of you listen to his advice? Or are you suffering because you didn't? ;)

IIRC, the guy let it slip that he did his buy-in at around $2.  Timed it almost perfectly.  Before that he was talking down the market (I always felt ineffectively) and right after that, he shut up for a long long time.  He woke up again to try to talk things down briefly after the early 2013 spike, but didn't stick around long.  His best work happened from mid to end of 2011.  God only knows how much he made if he bought at the late 2011 bottom rather than a series of double-downs as I did.

Lately he's been mostly trying to get people (including yours truly) to sue Mt. Gox for some reason.



Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: oakpacific on November 27, 2013, 05:05:43 AM
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=90&i=&c=0&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0
Bitcoin/USD, last 3 months. Any questions?

Bitcoin is over. If you're not out, get out. The last ones to leave will be the worst off.

I've been saying for months that this was a speculative bubble, a pyramid scheme. I said that when bubbles pop, they pop all the way. There were replies like "troll" and "hater".  "The bitcoin's value will inevitably increase." (Bazil). "Regular use of Bitcoins will pick up pace, it's inevitable." (Goodlord666). There are still people writing comments like that.

I was right. You were wrong. Now suffer.

Wow, this guy seems to know a thing or two about investment! Did any of you listen to his advice? Or are you suffering because you didn't? ;)

IIRC, the guy let it slip that he did his buy-in at around $2.  Timed it almost perfectly.  Before that he was talking down the market (I always felt ineffectively) and right after that, he shut up for a long long time.  He woke up again to try to talk things down briefly after the early 2013 spike, but didn't stick around long.  His best work happened from mid to end of 2011.  God only knows how much he made if he bought at the late 2011 bottom rather than a series of double-downs as I did.

Lately he's been mostly trying to get people (including yours truly) to sue Mt. Gox for some reason.



Then I guess you hadn't followed him for long enough though.

He still tried to talk down the market after the bottom, check out his posts.

But then again, I take off my hat to you guys who just want to give everyone credit and say nothing but good things after you have sealed your win.



Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: abs350 on October 21, 2014, 10:42:00 PM
Yep Id agree with this bear sentiment right now

Still in bear territory for sure


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: favelle75 on October 22, 2014, 04:30:49 AM
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=90&i=&c=0&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0
Bitcoin/USD, last 3 months. Any questions?

Bitcoin is over. If you're not out, get out. The last ones to leave will be the worst off.

I've been saying for months that this was a speculative bubble, a pyramid scheme. I said that when bubbles pop, they pop all the way. There were replies like "troll" and "hater".  "The bitcoin's value will inevitably increase." (Bazil). "Regular use of Bitcoins will pick up pace, it's inevitable." (Goodlord666). There are still people writing comments like that.

I was right. You were wrong. Now suffer.

LOL, wonder if the OP got "out"?


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: 600watt on October 22, 2014, 07:42:40 AM
Lovely thread.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: smoothie on October 22, 2014, 08:33:06 AM
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=90&i=&c=0&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0
Bitcoin/USD, last 3 months. Any questions?

Bitcoin is over. If you're not out, get out. The last ones to leave will be the worst off.

I've been saying for months that this was a speculative bubble, a pyramid scheme. I said that when bubbles pop, they pop all the way. There were replies like "troll" and "hater".  "The bitcoin's value will inevitably increase." (Bazil). "Regular use of Bitcoins will pick up pace, it's inevitable." (Goodlord666). There are still people writing comments like that.

I was right. You were wrong. Now suffer.

Lol how wrong you were long term.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: arbitrage001 on October 22, 2014, 10:19:17 AM
Someone keep pumping old thread for some reasons?


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: 600watt on October 22, 2014, 11:53:44 AM
Someone keep pumping old thread for some reasons?

the reason is: to laugh learn...


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Tzupy on October 22, 2014, 01:59:23 PM
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=6-hour&c=1&s=2011-06-01&e=2011-10-20&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&
Bitcoin/USD, last 3 months. Any questions?

Bitcoin is over. If you're not out, get out. The last ones to leave will be the worst off.

I've been saying for months that this was a speculative bubble, a pyramid scheme. I said that when bubbles pop, they pop all the way. There were replies like "troll" and "hater".  "The bitcoin's value will inevitably increase." (Bazil). "Regular use of Bitcoins will pick up pace, it's inevitable." (Goodlord666). There are still people writing comments like that.

I was right. You were wrong. Now suffer.

Lol how wrong you were long term.

He was right on the short term. From 4.2$ on the 9th September to 2$ in October.
I fixed the chart, so people better understand what he was talking about.
The lesson to learn is that even with Bitcoins' killer app (Silk Road), the bubble still had to deflate a lot.

PS. In the bearish scenario, 9th September 2011 is IMO similar to the 6th October 2014. The rebounds were even stronger back then.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: CUNÉGONDE on October 23, 2014, 07:33:08 AM
Really interesting, some people say that Bitcoin is a bubble in 2011?


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: teukon on October 23, 2014, 11:44:58 AM
Really interesting, some people say that Bitcoin is a bubble in 2011?

Relatively speaking, June 2011 marks the peak of Bitcoin's largest bubble, even if we consider the two bubbles of 2013 as one.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: inca on October 23, 2014, 12:22:08 PM
Nagle is still posting bearish posts even today on the forum.

It must really hurt being that wrong about something. Even if it goes to zero this very afternoon, what a squandered opportunity!


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: piramida on October 23, 2014, 01:25:01 PM
I get the disticnt feeling that we are merely in the eye of the storm...
Indeed, people are losing interest.  There are no billionaire investors waiting to cash in, just people desperate to get rich like the early adopters did.  Somebody's gotta lose money. 

This particular quote keeps coming back, only the "early adopters" group keeps growing.. Second wave of early adopters... Third... Fourth... Still no investors, just adopters... Hmm wait that looks like something.. Can it be people's money? :)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: xmasdobo on October 23, 2014, 03:35:43 PM
The amount of BTC being offered for sale at 5.25 is just staggering. It truly dwarfs the amount of
money wanting into BTC. Just two weeks ago people would have loved to buy at that price but now
no one wants to touch them.

How can the price possibly recover when people do not want to buy, and even if they do buy,
the amount of cash to bring the price back up to 7 is ridiculous.



Why buy at $7 if you can buy at $5.25?
Why buy at $5.24 if you can buy at $4?
Why buy at $4 if you can buy at $3?
.
.
.
People are going to keep pressing their luck until someone decides it's time to buy big, and the procrastinators lose out big time.


The big dogs could bring the price up to $10 right now if they wanted to, which means double the value than $5.25 for them. Saw someone with a 17,000 btc bid at 5.25 earlier.

See, but no one wants in at $10. No one who's not in bitcoins now wants in at all.

There is no "big dog" to save you guys.

We'll there's people like me... if BTC goes to ridiculously low prices, it would be stupid to not get in relatively big to get a good chunk just IN CASE it explodes again. There is a lot of people like me willing to get in if it goes ridiculously low, just in case.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: piramida on October 23, 2014, 06:26:36 PM
The amount of BTC being offered for sale at 5.25 is just staggering. It truly dwarfs the amount of
money wanting into BTC. Just two weeks ago people would have loved to buy at that price but now
no one wants to touch them.

How can the price possibly recover when people do not want to buy, and even if they do buy,
the amount of cash to bring the price back up to 7 is ridiculous.



Why buy at $7 if you can buy at $5.25?
Why buy at $5.24 if you can buy at $4?
Why buy at $4 if you can buy at $3?
.
.
.
People are going to keep pressing their luck until someone decides it's time to buy big, and the procrastinators lose out big time.


The big dogs could bring the price up to $10 right now if they wanted to, which means double the value than $5.25 for them. Saw someone with a 17,000 btc bid at 5.25 earlier.

See, but no one wants in at $10. No one who's not in bitcoins now wants in at all.

There is no "big dog" to save you guys.

We'll there's people like me... if BTC goes to ridiculously low prices, it would be stupid to not get in relatively big to get a good chunk just IN CASE it explodes again. There is a lot of people like me willing to get in if it goes ridiculously low, just in case.

Also you must understand that the "ridiculous amounts of cash" these guys are talking about is like $100k :) Ah the early days... When silly people didn't want in at overpriced $10 bitcoins... :)


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: smoothie on October 23, 2014, 08:05:26 PM
Nagle is still posting bearish posts even today on the forum.

It must really hurt being that wrong about something. Even if it goes to zero this very afternoon, what a squandered opportunity!

Of course he is butthurt about it.

He could have, should have, would have made a ton of money if he bought bitcoin back then and held even until today at not an ATH.

Of course some people can't admit when they are wrong. So funny to see this! lol


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: fewcoins on October 23, 2014, 10:06:44 PM
This correction today was obviously needed... new high is possible if buyers can push this out tomorrow because short covering will be rampant causing a +++ day


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: Carra23 on October 23, 2014, 11:01:33 PM
I just got in. Still think its going lower, but wanted to lock in the profits and then go out.


Title: Re: If you're not out, get out.
Post by: fantasticoin on October 24, 2014, 02:28:44 AM
I just got in. Still think its going lower, but wanted to lock in the profits and then go out.

That is the right thing to do and I agree. 100%