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Title: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: nezarkadhem on January 28, 2014, 09:32:56 PM Trend line prediction for Bitcoin difficulty in the next two months:
Date % change difficulty January 15, 2014 2.13% 1,866,409,213 January 16, 2014 2.13% 1,906,084,808 January 17, 2014 2.13% 1,946,614,160 January 18, 2014 2.13% 1,988,015,853 January 19, 2014 2.13% 2,030,308,880 January 20, 2014 2.13% 2,073,512,651 January 21, 2014 2.13% 2,117,647,004 January 22, 2014 2.13% 2,162,732,214 January 23, 2014 2.13% 2,208,789,000 January 24, 2014 2.13% 2,255,838,541 January 25, 2014 2.13% 2,303,902,480 January 26, 2014 2.13% 2,353,002,936 January 27, 2014 2.13% 2,403,162,519 January 28, 2014 2.13% 2,454,404,334 January 29, 2014 2.13% 2,506,751,996 January 30, 2014 2.13% 2,560,229,642 January 31, 2014 2.13% 2,614,861,939 February 1, 2014 2.13% 2,670,674,102 February 2, 2014 2.13% 2,727,691,897 February 3, 2014 2.14% 2,785,941,663 February 4, 2014 2.14% 2,845,450,319 February 5, 2014 2.14% 2,906,245,377 February 6, 2014 2.14% 2,968,354,957 February 7, 2014 2.14% 3,031,807,801 February 8, 2014 2.14% 3,096,633,286 February 9, 2014 2.14% 3,162,861,436 February 10, 2014 2.14% 3,230,522,941 February 11, 2014 2.14% 3,299,649,167 February 12, 2014 2.14% 3,370,272,175 February 13, 2014 2.14% 3,442,424,734 February 14, 2014 2.14% 3,516,140,338 February 15, 2014 2.14% 3,591,453,223 February 16, 2014 2.14% 3,668,398,379 February 17, 2014 2.14% 3,747,011,574 February 18, 2014 2.14% 3,827,329,366 February 19, 2014 2.14% 3,909,389,122 February 20, 2014 2.14% 3,993,229,038 February 21, 2014 2.15% 4,078,888,153 February 22, 2014 2.15% 4,166,406,372 February 23, 2014 2.15% 4,255,824,486 February 24, 2014 2.15% 4,347,184,188 February 25, 2014 2.15% 4,440,528,094 February 26, 2014 2.15% 4,535,899,766 February 27, 2014 2.15% 4,633,343,731 February 28, 2014 2.15% 4,732,905,506 March 1, 2014 2.15% 4,834,631,614 March 2, 2014 2.15% 4,938,569,611 March 3, 2014 2.15% 5,044,768,110 March 4, 2014 2.15% 5,153,276,801 March 5, 2014 2.15% 5,264,146,477 March 6, 2014 2.15% 5,377,429,058 March 7, 2014 2.15% 5,493,177,620 March 8, 2014 2.15% 5,611,446,414 March 9, 2014 2.15% 5,732,290,897 March 10, 2014 2.15% 5,855,767,760 March 11, 2014 2.15% 5,981,934,952 March 12, 2014 2.16% 6,110,851,709 March 13, 2014 2.16% 6,242,578,586 March 14, 2014 2.16% 6,377,177,483 March 15, 2014 2.16% 6,514,711,677 March 16, 2014 2.16% 6,655,245,851 March 17, 2014 2.16% 6,798,846,130 March 18, 2014 2.16% 6,945,580,106 March 19, 2014 2.16% 7,095,516,878 March 20, 2014 2.16% 7,248,727,082 March 21, 2014 2.16% 7,405,282,928 March 22, 2014 2.16% 7,565,258,231 March 23, 2014 2.16% 7,728,728,451 March 24, 2014 2.16% 7,895,770,731 March 25, 2014 2.16% 8,066,463,929 March 26, 2014 2.16% 8,240,888,662 March 27, 2014 2.16% 8,419,127,343 March 28, 2014 2.16% 8,601,264,223 March 29, 2014 2.16% 8,787,385,429 March 30, 2014 2.16% 8,977,579,011 March 31, 2014 2.16% 9,171,934,981 Title: Re: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: danieldaniel on January 31, 2014, 08:38:22 PM What information are you basing this prediction on?
Title: Re: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: organofcorti on January 31, 2014, 10:46:41 PM Trend line prediction for Bitcoin difficulty in the next two months: <snip> By definition, this is wrong - difficulty doesn't change per day or any particular time period, it changes per 2016 blocks. Title: Re: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: nezarkadhem on February 05, 2014, 04:58:22 AM Trend line prediction for Bitcoin difficulty in the next two months: <snip> By definition, this is wrong - difficulty doesn't change per day or any particular time period, it changes per 2016 blocks. Yes, it doesn't change per day. But if you take the change estimated on the 24th of Jan, we are only about 2% off. So you'll need to look at the estimations on the day the difficulty changes, and compare. Title: Re: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: nezarkadhem on February 05, 2014, 05:00:09 AM What information are you basing this prediction on? We've taken the history of bitcoin's difficulty over the last month, 3 months, 6 months, and a year. Then we plotted a trend line over the average of those. We've done the same for other SHA coins, like PPC, TRC, and FRC. It's pretty accurate actually. PM if you want the excel sheet. Title: Re: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: organofcorti on February 05, 2014, 05:05:59 AM Trend line prediction for Bitcoin difficulty in the next two months: <snip> By definition, this is wrong - difficulty doesn't change per day or any particular time period, it changes per 2016 blocks. Yes, it doesn't change per day. But if you take the change estimated on the 24th of Jan, we are only about 2% off. So you'll need to look at the estimations on the day the difficulty changes, and compare. Part of difficulty forecasting is when difficulty changes. If you can forecast the changes in difficulty, then you can forecast the dates when the changes occur and how much they are. Come on, don't be lazy! Do it right! Title: Re: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: nezarkadhem on February 05, 2014, 05:27:35 AM Trend line prediction for Bitcoin difficulty in the next two months: <snip> By definition, this is wrong - difficulty doesn't change per day or any particular time period, it changes per 2016 blocks. Yes, it doesn't change per day. But if you take the change estimated on the 24th of Jan, we are only about 2% off. So you'll need to look at the estimations on the day the difficulty changes, and compare. Part of difficulty forecasting is when difficulty changes. If you can forecast the changes in difficulty, then you can forecast the dates when the changes occur and how much they are. Come on, don't be lazy! Do it right! Fair enough. We put together these numbers to identify the difficulty in March, April, etc. So we could see if a mining rig would be profitable. At least since November, the difficulty almost always changes between 11-13 days. How do you suggest we predict the *day* the difficulty changes? Should we simply estimate 12 days (historical average)? Title: Re: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: MANofthePEOPLE on February 05, 2014, 05:30:25 AM Maybe we're not looking at 100% diff increase each month but surely it will be higher than ~60%? So much hardware coming online this spring, 22% increases sounds more like a fantasy to me.
Title: Re: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: organofcorti on February 05, 2014, 05:36:31 AM Trend line prediction for Bitcoin difficulty in the next two months: <snip> By definition, this is wrong - difficulty doesn't change per day or any particular time period, it changes per 2016 blocks. Yes, it doesn't change per day. But if you take the change estimated on the 24th of Jan, we are only about 2% off. So you'll need to look at the estimations on the day the difficulty changes, and compare. Part of difficulty forecasting is when difficulty changes. If you can forecast the changes in difficulty, then you can forecast the dates when the changes occur and how much they are. Come on, don't be lazy! Do it right! Fair enough. We put together these numbers to identify the difficulty in March, April, etc. So we could see if a mining rig would be profitable. At least since November, the difficulty almost always changes between 11-13 days. How do you suggest we predict the *day* the difficulty changes? Should we simply estimate 12 days (historical average)? No, it's trickier than that. The increase in difficulty is the inverse of the time taken for the previous difficulty divided by 86400*14. So if the increase in difficulty is say 120%, then the time between retargets immediately prior to the increase will be 86400*14/1.2 seconds. It'll write up something a bit more clear and post a link to it when I have some time. But why not forecast cumulative earnings for the month? That's what I do for the most part. Difficulty prediction is tricky and tends to have unexpectedly wide confidence intervals past one or two retargets, but the cumulative earnings plot tend to be quite smooth and easy to trend-ify. For example, if you plot date of deployment vs total income after three months, you get a very nice smooth chart that is easy to extend. Title: Re: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: nezarkadhem on February 05, 2014, 05:38:42 AM Maybe we're not looking at 100% diff increase each month but surely it will be higher than ~60%? So much hardware coming online this spring, 22% increases sounds more like a fantasy to me. You got the math wrong friend. See it's exponential growth. Here's an example: 1 * 2% = 1.02 1.02 * 2% = 1.04 ... 60 days later 3.03 * 2% = 3.09 60 days later, the growth is about 209%. Title: Re: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: MANofthePEOPLE on February 05, 2014, 05:44:42 AM Maybe we're not looking at 100% diff increase each month but surely it will be higher than ~60%? So much hardware coming online this spring, 22% increases sounds more like a fantasy to me. You got the math wrong friend. See it's exponential growth. Here's an example: 1 * 2% = 1.02 1.02 * 2% = 1.04 ... 60 days later 3.03 * 2% = 3.09 60 days later, the growth is about 209%. :-[ Fortunately, I never claimed to be a math genius ;) So you predict around 100% diff increase/month? (probably gonna end up looking like even dumber now) Title: Re: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: nezarkadhem on February 05, 2014, 05:50:15 AM Trend line prediction for Bitcoin difficulty in the next two months: <snip> By definition, this is wrong - difficulty doesn't change per day or any particular time period, it changes per 2016 blocks. Yes, it doesn't change per day. But if you take the change estimated on the 24th of Jan, we are only about 2% off. So you'll need to look at the estimations on the day the difficulty changes, and compare. Part of difficulty forecasting is when difficulty changes. If you can forecast the changes in difficulty, then you can forecast the dates when the changes occur and how much they are. Come on, don't be lazy! Do it right! Fair enough. We put together these numbers to identify the difficulty in March, April, etc. So we could see if a mining rig would be profitable. At least since November, the difficulty almost always changes between 11-13 days. How do you suggest we predict the *day* the difficulty changes? Should we simply estimate 12 days (historical average)? No, it's trickier than that. The increase in difficulty is the inverse of the time taken for the previous difficulty divided by 86400*14. So if the increase in difficulty is say 120%, then the time between retargets immediately prior to the increase will be 86400*14/1.2 seconds. It'll write up something a bit more clear and post a link to it when I have some time. But why not forecast cumulative earnings for the month? That's what I do for the most part. Difficulty prediction is tricky and tends to have unexpectedly wide confidence intervals past one or two retargets, but the cumulative earnings plot tend to be quite smooth and easy to trend-ify. For example, if you plot date of deployment vs total income after three months, you get a very nice smooth chart that is easy to extend. When you do write something up, please share! Cumulative earnings require difficulty, don't they? Earnings require you to predict the number of minded coins * price. And of course the hashrate and reward, but it's fair to assume those are constant. I'm using this formula: 24/(D*232/(H*10ˆ6)/60/60)*C D= difficulty, H=hash, and C=reward I have my forecasted commutative earnings, and actual (I monitor this day to day). My columns go something like this: Date | Hashing Power | % Change | Predicted Difficulty | Actual Difficulty | Predicted BTC price | Actual BTC Price | Predicted Revenue | Actual Revenue Title: Re: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: nezarkadhem on February 05, 2014, 05:52:35 AM Maybe we're not looking at 100% diff increase each month but surely it will be higher than ~60%? So much hardware coming online this spring, 22% increases sounds more like a fantasy to me. You got the math wrong friend. See it's exponential growth. Here's an example: 1 * 2% = 1.02 1.02 * 2% = 1.04 ... 60 days later 3.03 * 2% = 3.09 60 days later, the growth is about 209%. :-[ Fortunately, I never claimed to be a math genius ;) So you predict around 100% diff increase/month? (probably gonna end up looking like even dumber now) Yes, malheureusement (french for unfortunately ;)) Title: Re: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: MANofthePEOPLE on February 05, 2014, 06:28:55 AM Maybe we're not looking at 100% diff increase each month but surely it will be higher than ~60%? So much hardware coming online this spring, 22% increases sounds more like a fantasy to me. You got the math wrong friend. See it's exponential growth. Here's an example: 1 * 2% = 1.02 1.02 * 2% = 1.04 ... 60 days later 3.03 * 2% = 3.09 60 days later, the growth is about 209%. :-[ Fortunately, I never claimed to be a math genius ;) So you predict around 100% diff increase/month? (probably gonna end up looking like even dumber now) Yes, malheureusement (french for unfortunately ;)) That's some sad numbers indeed. You are keeping your neptune preorder why exactly? :p Title: Re: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: raskul on February 05, 2014, 07:56:32 AM :o i just seen a tweet...
http://btc.re (http://btc.re) see 'next difficulty estimate' SHOLY HIT BATMAN. Title: Re: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: ujka on February 05, 2014, 10:12:54 AM Trend line prediction for Bitcoin difficulty in the next two months: <snip> By definition, this is wrong - difficulty doesn't change per day or any particular time period, it changes per 2016 blocks. Yes, it doesn't change per day. But if you take the change estimated on the 24th of Jan, we are only about 2% off. So you'll need to look at the estimations on the day the difficulty changes, and compare. I see that in your trendline increase is 'accelerating', goes from 2.13% to 2.16% per day, but charts at sipa.be are showing 'deceleration': http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png Title: Re: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: nezarkadhem on February 05, 2014, 09:38:31 PM Trend line prediction for Bitcoin difficulty in the next two months: <snip> By definition, this is wrong - difficulty doesn't change per day or any particular time period, it changes per 2016 blocks. Yes, it doesn't change per day. But if you take the change estimated on the 24th of Jan, we are only about 2% off. So you'll need to look at the estimations on the day the difficulty changes, and compare. I see that in your trendline increase is 'accelerating', goes from 2.13% to 2.16% per day, but charts at sipa.be are showing 'deceleration': Yes, it's 9.801% off. Hashfast and Cointerra just shipped. Sit back and watch.... Title: Re: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: boumalo on February 05, 2014, 10:11:15 PM Maybe we're not looking at 100% diff increase each month but surely it will be higher than ~60%? So much hardware coming online this spring, 22% increases sounds more like a fantasy to me. You got the math wrong friend. See it's exponential growth. Here's an example: 1 * 2% = 1.02 1.02 * 2% = 1.04 ... 60 days later 3.03 * 2% = 3.09 60 days later, the growth is about 209%. :-[ Fortunately, I never claimed to be a math genius ;) So you predict around 100% diff increase/month? (probably gonna end up looking like even dumber now) Yes, malheureusement (french for unfortunately ;)) That's some sad numbers indeed. You are keeping your neptune preorder why exactly? :p Maybe to mine some then sell at 120% of the preorder price ;D Title: Re: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: ujka on February 05, 2014, 11:03:14 PM At last diff change (feb 5th), trendline is more than 10% off. Yes, it's 9.801% off. Hashfast and Cointerra just shipped. Sit back and watch....I see that in your trendline increase is 'accelerating', goes from 2.13% to 2.16% per day, but charts at sipa.be are showing 'deceleration': There is also Bitmine, promising to ship. 'Next' week. Next step has to be >40% to catch up with trendline. Title: Re: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: organofcorti on February 06, 2014, 12:15:48 PM When you do write something up, please share! OK, hopefully this is understandable: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2014/02/917-estimating-future-bitcoin-mining.html Cumulative earnings require difficulty, don't they? Earnings require you to predict the number of minded coins * price. And of course the hashrate and reward, but it's fair to assume those are constant. What I mean was that you can forecast income - for example you can use your "trendline" method on your historical earnings and forecast that directly.I'm using this formula: 24/(D*232/(H*10ˆ6)/60/60)*C Is that meant to be "2^32" instead of "232"? Title: Re: Bitcoin Difficulty Prediction [NOW - MARCH] Post by: nezarkadhem on February 10, 2014, 10:00:32 AM When you do write something up, please share! OK, hopefully this is understandable: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2014/02/917-estimating-future-bitcoin-mining.html Cumulative earnings require difficulty, don't they? Earnings require you to predict the number of minded coins * price. And of course the hashrate and reward, but it's fair to assume those are constant. What I mean was that you can forecast income - for example you can use your "trendline" method on your historical earnings and forecast that directly.I'm using this formula: 24/(D*232/(H*10ˆ6)/60/60)*C Is that meant to be "2^32" instead of "232"? Yes, my bad: 24/(D*2ˆ32/(H*10ˆ6)/60/60)*C |
