Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: walidzohair on September 15, 2011, 05:45:52 AM



Title: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: walidzohair on September 15, 2011, 05:45:52 AM
I talk to many friends of mine about the Bitcoin trade analysis (without saying it is the bitcoin ... I just say it is an X stock). And they all say it is a well known trade price chart called "dead cat bounce".


Any one can help me explain the expression in simple English please?


and please do not take me wrong , I am a bit coin fan (well at least as long as it exists!!)   :D.


Thanks!


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: Edward50 on September 15, 2011, 05:52:47 AM
haha, its like a cult here, you have to be a bitcoin fan or be put on the stake.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: fcmatt on September 15, 2011, 05:54:44 AM
a dead cat bounce is when something drops in price quite a bit the price starts to look appealing again. But in reality it is
still over priced and continues to fall even lower after the price bounced back up for a short while.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: coined on September 15, 2011, 05:56:18 AM
quick survey!

does anyone think he didn't know the answer before he created the thread?

get your votes in!  ;)


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: Cluster2k on September 15, 2011, 06:00:47 AM
It does look a bit like a dead cat bounce, although the bounce is gradual.  That kitty was rather rubbery.  I'm sure someone will post a log graph soon to prove the cat is alive and well.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: walidzohair on September 15, 2011, 06:28:53 AM
lol @ rubbery.

Yah that is hat I told my friend too. I said look! Look! the cat is still bouncing up again after every fall! YAY me! that cat must be alive!!!.

But she old me as long as the bouncing is always lower than the one before then the cat is DEAD!!!.


She told me too that is a well known beaver chart behavior (or was it bearish behavior and the other one was the beaver!).

Any way, I still really do not understand all that technical stuff! Can someone please explain.


Thanks!


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: walidzohair on September 15, 2011, 06:44:56 AM
oh umm and some filthy man told me as it wont be used for drugs and illegal issues any more it will vanish as in a pyramid scheme!!

is a pyramid scheme something related to Egypt ?


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: piramida on September 15, 2011, 08:42:48 AM
In Norse mythology, troll, like thurs is a term applied to jötnar. In Old Norse sources, trolls are said to dwell in isolated mountains, rocks, and caves, sometimes live together (usually as father-and-daughter or mother-and-son), and are rarely described as helpful or friendly.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: Technomage on September 15, 2011, 10:41:20 AM
Even I thought we saw a dead cat bounce just now. It was that obvious. In fact I was hoping for it so I can get some more coins that I think of as cheap (<$5). Not yet there though, but probably soon. Not calling an exact low but I'm very confident that it'll be at $4.xx, at which point the volumes will go way higher again. That is still the best range for buying in.

The long term situation is still very good. If the price were to stay at under $5 for a week or so I would call long term neutral. If it were to stay at below $4 for a week I would call long term down, and below $4 for a month, then I'd call abandon ship.

But for now there's much reason to be positive. For one, the volumes for this correction have been low, meaning the sellers aren't that interested either. And if the volumes continue to go skyhigh at $4.xx, the signs are good. In that situation all that the market needs is some fresh blood willing to buy and a real rally could happen. So just wait for it.




Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: Lolcust on September 15, 2011, 11:03:46 AM
oh umm and some filthy man told me as it wont be used for drugs and illegal issues any more it will vanish as in a pyramid scheme!!

is a pyramid scheme something related to Egypt ?

I know little of stock trading, but I can assure you that bitcoin will remain to be used in drug trade irrespective of bitcoin exchange price trends.

"Bitcoin" + "GPS-aided single-use randomized dead drops" = "very reliable and safe way to trade drugs".

Just sayin'


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: walidzohair on September 15, 2011, 11:46:31 AM
I was talking about big times drugs and arms money yo microscopic dope junkie :D. That kind of huge ass money transfer demand is the only mean to summon the cat soul! And that kind of money open the FEDs appetizer.


But ah again maybe Gavin gave the FEDs all the details to pin point every transfer detail up to the trader undies IP ass address.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: Elwar on September 15, 2011, 11:51:20 AM
I talk to many friends of mine about the Bitcoin trade analysis (without saying it is the bitcoin ... I just say it is an X stock). And they all say it is a well known trade price chart called "dead cat bounce".


Any one can help me explain the expression in simple English please?


and please do not take me wrong , I am a bit coin fan (well at least as long as it exists!!)   :D.


Thanks!

I think the only way to settle this and figure it out for yourself is to find a dead cat and bounce it on the ground. You will find the answer you are looking for at that point.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: Jixtreme on September 15, 2011, 01:48:26 PM
I talk to many friends of mine about the Bitcoin trade analysis (without saying it is the bitcoin ... I just say it is an X stock). And they all say it is a well known trade price chart called "dead cat bounce".


Any one can help me explain the expression in simple English please?


and please do not take me wrong , I am a bit coin fan (well at least as long as it exists!!)   :D.


Thanks!

y'all got trolled.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: druid on September 15, 2011, 01:50:35 PM
It was 100% clear when we got to Egyptian pyramids   :D


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: Bigpiggy01 on September 15, 2011, 02:29:20 PM
This thread needs more https://i.imgur.com/Oom8y.jpg


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: johnj on September 15, 2011, 04:27:43 PM
"Bitcoin" + "GPS-aided single-use randomized dead drops" = "very reliable and safe way to trade drugs".

Just sayin'

Oh, is that how the Dark Brootherhood pays you win ES:17?


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: Lolcust on September 15, 2011, 07:05:15 PM
And that kind of money open the FEDs appetizer.

At this point I can only vaguely infer that you are trolling, but the meaning of the above phrase escapes me completely.

But ah again maybe Gavin gave the FEDs all the details to pin point every transfer detail up to the trader undies IP ass address.

CIA is not "feds", get your US-centric jargon straight.
"Bitcoin" + "GPS-aided single-use randomized dead drops" = "very reliable and safe way to trade drugs".

Just sayin'

Oh, is that how the Dark Brootherhood pays you win ES:17?

Sorry, didn't get the reference.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: walidzohair on September 16, 2011, 09:37:02 AM
ummm i tried a suggestion mentioned here and throw a dead over the 20th floor balconey and it bounced couple times before it falled finally as in DEAD!!!.


ummm .. maybe i started to figure it out. But here in my country culture we call it "life sweetness" whatever the hell that means but it says when you cut a kitchen throat with a hard knife (preparing for a chicken meal .. ooo yummy) it can happen sometimes that the chicken will just stand again and walk on its feet couple steps before it fall DEAD!!!.


umm I am not sure if this is what meant by the DEAD CAT BOUNCE! expression. But if it is the same .. Does that means bitcoin is going to vanish within a year? or like it is going to stabilize at (0.0001 - 5 $) as the normal price ? I dunno.


Maybe some early adopters just swift in and out for a fast gain and that is it! while they sppose to be the ones that support bitcoins?!?!

all i am sure of is right now I am still confused and not sure what (DEAD CAT BOUNCE) means ?!?!?!?


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: cbeast on September 16, 2011, 11:22:50 AM
oh umm and some filthy man told me as it wont be used for drugs and illegal issues any more it will vanish as in a pyramid scheme!!

is a pyramid scheme something related to Egypt ?

I know little of stock trading, but I can assure you that bitcoin will remain to be used in drug trade irrespective of bitcoin exchange price trends.

"Bitcoin" + "GPS-aided single-use randomized dead drops" = "very reliable and safe way to trade drugs".

Just sayin'

So would be using fiat money +  "GPS-aided single-use randomized dead drops" = "very reliable and safe way to trade drugs". Isn't that how it's done now? All they do now is use secure comms for the locations.

In fact, the strength of bitcoin isn't so much the pseudonymity, but the public ledger.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: walidzohair on September 16, 2011, 11:25:18 AM
I think using bitcoin instead of fiat money will make it harder to catch the traders with "dirty hand deals" as money exchanging is harder to be proven.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: cbeast on September 16, 2011, 11:38:05 AM
Another thing about bitcoin: using references like "stock x" to describe bitcoin trading is a false premise. Bitcoin is more like "commodity x" but even that isn't the best analogy. Bitcoin is something new so while it may have trading patterns similar to stocks, currencies, and commodities, it is none of those. Bitcoin is more like a religion. It is like Scientology and Jediism, it will only grow over time as more and more crazy people begin to believe in it.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: walidzohair on September 16, 2011, 11:42:32 AM
viva zalata!!! FREEDOM!!!


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: S3052 on September 16, 2011, 11:43:30 AM
Another thing about bitcoin: using references like "stock x" to describe bitcoin trading is a false premise. Bitcoin is more like "commodity x" but even that isn't the best analogy. Bitcoin is something new so while it may have trading patterns similar to stocks, currencies, and commodities, it is none of those. Bitcoin is more like a religion. It is like Scientology and Jediism, it will only grow over time as more and more crazy people begin to believe in it.

It does not matter if bitcoin is compared to stocks or forex or commodities. fact is that the bitcoin prices and bitcoin charts behave just like those. Charting analysis works perfectly well for bitcoins, no matter what they are supposed to be.

And, like many have written in this section, it really depends if the log charts or the normal charts dominate. Our view is that the log charts are more appropriate and on log charts, bitcoins is no cat, no dead cat, but a big bull who is taking his afternoon nap before steaming forward again.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: walidzohair on September 16, 2011, 11:49:11 AM
OMG!!!   I hardly understood the DEAD CAT BOUNCE! concept and got used to it. And now you sayin something really new and strange!


a what ?? bull? do you man redbull drink or umm?!

because until now the only thing that looks like a bull is the bull horns penetrating the BTC price ass?!?! outch!!

the charts looks a lot like dump and nump, dead goose bounce .. etc.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: S3052 on September 16, 2011, 11:51:44 AM
interesting idea: a redbull market. I have one in the fridge and will open it now as I write this :-)


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: walidzohair on September 16, 2011, 11:54:30 AM
ummm .. I will go for some goat milk man.. i will feed my goat couple of BTCs for it! :D


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: cbeast on September 16, 2011, 12:04:54 PM
Another thing about bitcoin: using references like "stock x" to describe bitcoin trading is a false premise. Bitcoin is more like "commodity x" but even that isn't the best analogy. Bitcoin is something new so while it may have trading patterns similar to stocks, currencies, and commodities, it is none of those. Bitcoin is more like a religion. It is like Scientology and Jediism, it will only grow over time as more and more crazy people begin to believe in it.

It does not matter if bitcoin is compared to stocks or forex or commodities. fact is that the bitcoin prices and bitcoin charts behave just like those. Charting analysis works perfectly well for bitcoins, no matter what they are supposed to be.

And, like many have written in this section, it really depends if the log charts or the normal charts dominate. Our view is that the log charts are more appropriate and on log charts, bitcoins is no cat, no dead cat, but a big bull who is taking his afternoon nap before steaming forward again.

I'm just saying that bitcoin is not a currency, nor a stock because it is decentralized. There are no decentralized stocks on Wall Street nor currencies on Forex. Sure we will see similar patterns, but they are chaos based and will reiterate. I am "bullish" about bitcoin, not because of the patterns, but because the idea is too-big-to-fail. The fractal patterns in bitcoin fluctuations offer great opportunity for trading until folks understand this intrinsic nature of decentralized cryptocurrency.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: Lolcust on September 16, 2011, 07:24:07 PM
oh umm and some filthy man told me as it wont be used for drugs and illegal issues any more it will vanish as in a pyramid scheme!!

is a pyramid scheme something related to Egypt ?

I know little of stock trading, but I can assure you that bitcoin will remain to be used in drug trade irrespective of bitcoin exchange price trends.

"Bitcoin" + "GPS-aided single-use randomized dead drops" = "very reliable and safe way to trade drugs".

Just sayin'

So would be using fiat money +  "GPS-aided single-use randomized dead drops" = "very reliable and safe way to trade drugs". Isn't that how it's done now? All they do now is use secure comms for the locations.

In fact, the strength of bitcoin isn't so much the pseudonymity, but the public ledger.

Vanilla fiat money are harder to transfer via digital means without leaving a fairly fat paper trail, and cash is annoying in the requirement to physically exchange it which can get tricky in a setup like that.

Also, a large sum of fiat money tends to either occupy lots of space or attract unwanted scrutiny when moved around in digital representation.

Generally, bitcoin is very comfy in this regard and as our troll friend correctly points out, makes "dirty hands" type of action  exceedingly hard.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: adamstgBit on September 16, 2011, 07:33:15 PM
check this out ...

i just sold a coin
i have bad luck syndrome
------------------------------
bitcoin value will sky rocket in the next few min


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: molecular on September 16, 2011, 07:36:39 PM
does anyone think he didn't know the answer before he created the thread?

exactly my thoughts.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: molecular on September 16, 2011, 07:41:03 PM
She told me too that is a well known beaver chart behavior (or was it bearish behavior and the other one was the beaver!).

So you two talk about rubbery bouncing kittens while you play with her beaver, while secretely what you're really doing is trying to get unbiased info on wether or not bitcoin is dead. Awesome.

Let me coin the term beaver-reading for this.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: walidzohair on October 01, 2011, 12:16:40 PM
She told me too that is a well known beaver chart behavior (or was it bearish behavior and the other one was the beaver!).

So you two talk about rubbery bouncing kittens while you play with her beaver, while secretely what you're really doing is trying to get unbiased info on wether or not bitcoin is dead. Awesome.

Let me coin the term beaver-reading for this.




Well Ummmmm .. Basically that is quiet true and pretty much about it!. And yes she told me at the end that the CAT IS DEAD!!! .. or umm the BeaverCoin have been Deadly satisfied!


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: BitMagic on October 07, 2011, 07:39:00 PM
Our view is that the log charts are more appropriate and on log charts, bitcoins is no cat, no dead cat, but a big bull who is taking his afternoon nap before steaming forward again.[/color]

Yeah, because measuring a $6 drop from $30 to $24 equally to a $1 drop from $5 to $4 makes great sense in a crashing market for people who just "want to believe".  ::) When are you idiots going to stop picking the data you want to match your emotional desires and start facing reality?


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: FreddyFender on October 07, 2011, 08:26:45 PM
Be forewarned that this is a troll post looking to goad comments.
troll-e moley!


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: BitMagic on October 07, 2011, 08:37:10 PM
If I buy 100 USD worth of bitcoin at 30 USD/btc, and it drops to 24 USD/btc, or if I buy 100 USD worth of bitcoin at 5 USD/btc and it drops to 4 USD/btc, which way did I loose more money?

Yeah, log charts are good.

Lol, you can pound your fists all you want, but this is what your public sees:

http://www.greekshares.com/uploads/image/stock_market_crash.jpg


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: quartz92 on October 07, 2011, 08:57:10 PM
If I buy 100 USD worth of bitcoin at 30 USD/btc, and it drops to 24 USD/btc, or if I buy 100 USD worth of bitcoin at 5 USD/btc and it drops to 4 USD/btc, which way did I loose more money?

Yeah, log charts are good.

Lol, you can pound your fists all you want, but this is what your public sees:

http://www.greekshares.com/uploads/image/stock_market_crash.jpg
Not anymore!


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: BitMagic on October 07, 2011, 09:27:28 PM
Not anymore!

I'm sorry, that was a joke. This is not:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=90&i=&c=1&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=SMA&m1=30&a2=&m2=25&x=0


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: cbeast on October 07, 2011, 09:33:56 PM

The chart looks awfully flat for the last 4 weeks. Not much bouncing. Looks like the cat is taking a nap, not dead.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: grod on October 07, 2011, 09:40:46 PM

I think we need to start using 1/log (inverse log? does such a thing exist?) charts to see activity down here.  Hell, the price moved 20% today but you won't see that on the chart because it doesn't even register relative to noise movement of just a few weeks ago.



Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: BitMagic on October 07, 2011, 11:32:36 PM
I think we need to start using 1/log (inverse log? does such a thing exist?) charts to see activity down here.  Hell, the price moved 20% today but you won't see that on the chart because it doesn't even register relative to noise movement of just a few weeks ago.

Yeah yeah yeah. Log charts will show it's all roses, because that's what I want to believe!

I understand that log charts will show you a bit more about losses in short-term speculation, but everyone's saying "yeah but" on these charts because they want to ignore reality: BTC is tanking. Has been since June, no reason to think it's going to change. Ignore what you want, doesn't make you right.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: cbeast on October 07, 2011, 11:47:34 PM
BTC is tanking. Has been since June, no reason to think it's going to change. Ignore what you want, doesn't make you right.

Define tanking. Where is the bottom?


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: BitMagic on October 08, 2011, 12:02:16 AM
BTC is tanking. Has been since June, no reason to think it's going to change. Ignore what you want, doesn't make you right.

Define tanking. Where is the bottom?

Honestly? Parity. Maybe just above. Seriously, the existence of BTC as a useful currency depends on the following, in order from most important to least:

1) General Public interest and usage
2) Stable, safe, transparent exchanges
3) Black market usage
4) Belief in ideology
5) Speculation

1) has run, probably because of 2, 5, and just that it's not convenient enough. For them, the fad is over until Amazon, their credit cards, and actual banks bother to think about BTC.

3) will cut and run as soon as 2) is established.
The groupies at 4) are tiny. TINY.

These are your fundamentals, and the last 3 months are a perfect example of where everything is headed: 1) is gone, 2) never existed, so you're left with 3) and 4), while 5) will bail as soon as there's nothing left.

I didn't even get to the part about what most miners will do when it gets more expensive to mine than not.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: cbeast on October 08, 2011, 12:39:22 AM
BTC is tanking. Has been since June, no reason to think it's going to change. Ignore what you want, doesn't make you right.

Define tanking. Where is the bottom?

Honestly? Parity. Maybe just above. Seriously, the existence of BTC as a useful currency depends on the following, in order from most important to least:

1) General Public interest and usage
2) Stable, safe, transparent exchanges
3) Black market usage
4) Belief in ideology
5) Speculation

1) has run, probably because of 2, 5, and just that it's not convenient enough. For them, the fad is over until Amazon, their credit cards, and actual banks bother to think about BTC.

3) will cut and run as soon as 2) is established.
The groupies at 4) are tiny. TINY.

These are your fundamentals, and the last 3 months are a perfect example of where everything is headed: 1) is gone, 2) never existed, so you're left with 3) and 4), while 5) will bail as soon as there's nothing left.

I didn't even get to the part about what most miners will do when it gets more expensive to mine than not.

I'm not sure I have seen any existence yet of 1, let alone running. 3 is a strawman used by fearmongers, like criminals have never used cash lol. 2 will take time, Rome wasn't built in a day. 4 is only important for developers =p. 5 is 34 million USD strong.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: imsaguy on October 08, 2011, 12:47:12 AM

Let's give it some context, shall we?  Here's a year chart.. not so much "dead" as it is "correcting".
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=360&i=&c=1&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=SMA&m1=30&a2=&m2=25&x=0


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: pennytrader on October 08, 2011, 02:48:58 AM
Sold every coin at $4.6 (still have 5 BTC in my wallet). Probably should continue to sell since I'm a miner.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: quartz92 on October 08, 2011, 03:05:55 AM
Sold every coin at $4.6 (still have 5 BTC in my wallet). Probably should continue to sell since I'm a miner.
Hold them imo.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: Tronlet on October 08, 2011, 03:29:36 AM
I won't get into anything else, however addressing just one point, it won't become more expensive to mine than not. This is simply because if it does, then miners will quit, thus balancing out the difficulty and keeping things equal. If it becomes abnormally profitable to mine, then more miners will hop on, balancing out the difficulty again and keeping things equal.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: pennytrader on October 08, 2011, 04:41:55 AM
agreed. that's why I just sold another btc. Will transfer the remaining 4 BTC to continue to sell.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: walidzohair on October 08, 2011, 05:27:44 AM
Unless we get new HUGE-(like in 10 million dollars) investment-(like in buying BTC to rescue it ) .. it going to get done more and more.. maybe it will be worth of

0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000001


So technically it wont be DEAD but umm let us say you can buy the whole network and Satoshi's mama for 10 bucks! :)


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: grod on October 08, 2011, 06:21:21 AM
Weekend effect in progress.  If it flatlines at 4.1 without appreciable hash power loss on deepbit I may risk bottom fishing for coins to flip into expected rallies to 4.5.   Should be safe-ish enough, looks like this month's bloodbath has run its course.  It'll take a month for miners to stockpile again.

If the difficulty (and network utility/security) is plummeting I'm definitely not stepping up to catch knives.  The bulls are running their keyboards well enough but failing to throw sufficient good money after bad.



Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: grod on October 08, 2011, 06:34:20 AM
I won't get into anything else, however addressing just one point, it won't become more expensive to mine than not. This is simply because if it does, then miners will quit, thus balancing out the difficulty and keeping things equal. If it becomes abnormally profitable to mine, then more miners will hop on, balancing out the difficulty again and keeping things equal.

Have you looked at NMC once mining power fled?  TL;DR - about 5 months for difficulty to adjust down to match the current number of miners.  We ran NMC difficulty to 100k in about 3 days of profitable mining, and the remaining chumps are going to be slogging along for nearly half a year of mining at a loss to make up for it.  They'll be done around February with some luck.

Any number of people could do a 51% attack on namecoin right now, this very minute.

Even if 10% of the current miners have free electricity it won't rescue bitcoin if prices go sufficiently lower than cost to generate at 1.5M difficulty for the remaining 90%.   They're not going to buy bitcoin because it's cheaper to buy than mine, most will shut down and/or sell their rigs and forget about the whole thing.  $1.25 and you can stick a fork in it.  At $4.11 the pyramid is already wobbling pretty hard.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: BitMagic on October 08, 2011, 10:27:25 AM
I'm not sure I have seen any existence yet of 1, let alone running. 3 is a strawman used by fearmongers, like criminals have never used cash lol. 2 will take time, Rome wasn't built in a day. 4 is only important for developers =p. 5 is 34 million USD strong.

1) imsaguy's chart above should tell you that the public peak was months ago. Google trends, meme behavior, etc.: BTC will not catch on without the general public enjoying BTC like they do USD/EUR. 3) I'm saying that if the RUB is 3rd to USD and EUR in BTC exchange transaction volume, BTC has a lot to offer in anonymity, black market, and laundering. 2) is not about time, it's about adoption. I'm involved with exchanges, and if you think security isn't an issue for the non-public like me (my bank, CC, all my financial life has enormous protections in current law), I'm including my risk of major exchanges getting hacked/stealing my BTC. Sorry, but if you read these forums regularly, security should worry you. You and the rest of the forum posters are 4): blind hope on the future of BTC based on failed libertarian principles. 5) keeps you going only on swings, whether its $25-$30 or $1-$1.01. Activity != viability.

Let's give it some context, shall we?  Here's a year chart.. not so much "dead" as it is "correcting".

Yes! Thanks for the chart. Maybe my parity correction is wrong, but I sincerely believe the true value of bitcoin is represented in my previous post. There is no up from where we are.

Have you looked at NMC once mining power fled?  TL;DR - about 5 months for difficulty to adjust down to match the current number of miners.  We ran NMC difficulty to 100k in about 3 days of profitable mining, and the remaining chumps are going to be slogging along for nearly half a year of mining at a loss to make up for it.  They'll be done around February with some luck.

Any number of people could do a 51% attack on namecoin right now, this very minute.

Even if 10% of the current miners have free electricity it won't rescue bitcoin if prices go sufficiently lower than cost to generate at 1.5M difficulty for the remaining 90%.   They're not going to buy bitcoin because it's cheaper to buy than mine, most will shut down and/or sell their rigs and forget about the whole thing.  $1.25 and you can stick a fork in it.  At $4.11 the pyramid is already wobbling pretty hard.

All of this.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: Technomage on October 08, 2011, 12:05:35 PM
The price will bottom out and it will be above $1, that's something I can bet any amount on. Unless the fundamentals of legality, reliability and functionality are somehow broken. Even considering a price of below $1 is currently ridiculous. Simply because there are multiple players in the market who have the money to buy every coin in existence, if they were sold at that price level. And there would be hundreds if not thousands of smaller players like me trying to buy anything they can.

So for me the bottom has to happen in between $1 and the current price of around $4. Personally I see it bottoming out at $3.x, because the closer we get to $1, more impossible it'll be for the price to go down further.

It's idiotic to think of this situation like going back to the days when the price was at $1 levels last time. Bitcoin economy, the players involved, the amount of people who know about it, are all indicators that have risen hundreds if not thousands of percents from that time. Even taking into account the decline we've seen in recent months. And not all indicators have declined, for example the amount of merchants in the economy has actually gone up.



Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: Gerken on October 08, 2011, 12:47:08 PM
So you think bitcoin will be saved by people buying them all up and hoarding them?  If price drops much lower most people are gonna forget about bitcoins and keep an eye out for the next big thing. 


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: Crypt_Current on October 08, 2011, 12:53:05 PM
So you think bitcoin will be saved by people buying them all up and hoarding them?  If price drops much lower most people are gonna forget about bitcoins and keep an eye out for the next big thing. 

We will NEVER FORGET bitcoin!!!!

NEVER, EVER, EVER, EVER, EVER...!!!!!  *sob*

NEVER FORGET!!!!!!!!


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: neptop on October 08, 2011, 02:09:09 PM
For the BTC price to rise we just need another politician talking about Silk Road. The junkies will buy coins and the price will fly. Yay!  ;D


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: Fiyasko on October 08, 2011, 02:59:35 PM
I talk to many friends of mine about the Bitcoin trade analysis (without saying it is the bitcoin ... I just say it is an X stock). And they all say it is a well known trade price chart called "dead cat bounce".


Any one can help me explain the expression in simple English please?


and please do not take me wrong , I am a bit coin fan (well at least as long as it exists!!)   :D.


Thanks!

When i tell people im making money off of my GPU's , They go "whaaaat" and i go "im doing reserch for---BLAH BLAH LONG STORY" And i basically tell them Everything i know about Folding@Home.

Then they go. Ohhhhh k.... so you get a Stock that you can sell because you did that with your comps? "Yes"


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: molecular on October 08, 2011, 11:35:20 PM
For the BTC price to rise we just need another politician talking about Silk Road. The junkies will buy coins and the price will fly. Yay!  ;D


Not trying to be negative, but wont the dealers sell most of the coins again? Of course it's still good for bitcoin in general, just not for the price short-term.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: Fiyasko on October 09, 2011, 03:05:34 PM
For the BTC price to rise we just need another politician talking about Silk Road. The junkies will buy coins and the price will fly. Yay!  ;D


Not trying to be negative, but wont the dealers sell most of the coins again? Of course it's still good for bitcoin in general, just not for the price short-term.

No kidding.
1.They wouldnt bother with GPG/OTC
2.They wouldnt try to build forum rep to buy/sell
3.They would Need their money asap

So they would use Automated selling systems. Wich undercut the market, Wich in turn drops the value


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: Technomage on October 09, 2011, 04:11:15 PM
So you think bitcoin will be saved by people buying them all up and hoarding them?
 
In part, yes. One of the main functions of Bitcoin from an economic perspective is as a store of value, it's an inflation protection of sort. This is great for anyone wanting to find a place for very long term savings that will be safe and will hold their value. It's difficult to think about this when the price is so dominated by speculation right now but for the long term this is a big thing for Bitcoin. And if the price is close to $1, there really isn't that much risk in simply buying everything (as long as the fundamentals are still solid).

Quote
If price drops much lower most people are gonna forget about bitcoins and keep an eye out for the next big thing.
No, most speculators would forget about Bitcoins. And for the very long term this might even be good. As long as Bitcoin is functional it'll have a growing support base especially in the radical liberal camp.

What is interesting and I do think this is a bit of a problem, is security. Reliability and functionality are the most important fundamentals besides legality (these are related though) and if the amount of miners decline to low numbers it'll make the network much easier to attack.

So from this perspective I don't really want to see the price go super low even temporarily, because it could be a risk for the whole network. Right now we're still at high hash numbers so it's very safe, but this could change if the price goes super low. But I really doubt it, for example at a price of $1 the whole Bitcoin economy would be worth a maximum of 7 million dollars which is so low of a number that we need a fundamental decline far greater than we've seen so far to justify that number.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: grod on October 09, 2011, 04:33:03 PM

When i tell people im making money off of my GPU's , They go "whaaaat" and i go "im doing reserch for---BLAH BLAH LONG STORY" And i basically tell them Everything i know about Folding@Home.

Then they go. Ohhhhh k.... so you get a Stock that you can sell because you did that with your comps? "Yes"

My story is even simpler.  "I'm doing cryptography to secure a peer to peer network.  I get paid a few pennies for this, but I feel it's pretty important so I'm doing it.  Wanna learn more?"


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: RyNinDaCleM on October 09, 2011, 05:42:57 PM

When i tell people im making money off of my GPU's , They go "whaaaat" and i go "im doing reserch for---BLAH BLAH LONG STORY" And i basically tell them Everything i know about Folding@Home.

Then they go. Ohhhhh k.... so you get a Stock that you can sell because you did that with your comps? "Yes"

My story is even simpler.  "I'm doing cryptography to secure a peer to peer network.  I get paid a few pennies for this, but I feel it's pretty important so I'm doing it.  Wanna learn more?"


Concise and to the point! I like it!


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: Technomage on October 18, 2011, 10:57:11 AM
I almost made a new thread but I'll simply use this thread.

I think that we're currently in a very clear dead cat bounce situation and we will actually be locked into a cycle of bouncing for a while now. This is because most people have now accepted the fact that there will be no major uptrend in the near future, so nobody is willing to drive the price to $5+.

Now what this means is that every time we go up a certain percentage, there will be massive selling pressure. A very high percentage of all activity will be simply day trading. The bag holders don't want to sell if they haven't already, because they think the price can't go much lower anymore.

On the other hand people waiting to buy are not sure if it's low enough yet and are very caucious, most likely waiting for the price to go lower.

This to me looks like we will be fairly stable for the next few months and possibly bottom out at lower than $2.x at some point. After that it's really upto the real Bitcoin economy what'll happen, if there are real developments and increased adoption, we will have a new uptrend. This uptrend will be more massive than anything so far if it takes off, but it won't be based on pure hype. Stuff needs to happen.

But an economy is not built in a day, I'm not even convinced Bitcoin will really flourish next year. It might take many years. But as long as it's functional and legal there are very good odds we'll see good things in the future.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: imsaguy on October 18, 2011, 02:13:36 PM
I almost made a new thread but I'll simply use this thread.

I think that we're currently in a very clear dead cat bounce situation and we will actually be locked into a cycle of bouncing for a while now. This is because most people have now accepted the fact that there will be no major uptrend in the near future, so nobody is willing to drive the price to $5+.

Now what this means is that every time we go up a certain percentage, there will be massive selling pressure. A very high percentage of all activity will be simply day trading. The bag holders don't want to sell if they haven't already, because they think the price can't go much lower anymore.

On the other hand people waiting to buy are not sure if it's low enough yet and are very caucious, most likely waiting for the price to go lower.

This to me looks like we will be fairly stable for the next few months and possibly bottom out at lower than $2.x at some point. After that it's really upto the real Bitcoin economy what'll happen, if there are real developments and increased adoption, we will have a new uptrend. This uptrend will be more massive than anything so far if it takes off, but it won't be based on pure hype. Stuff needs to happen.

But an economy is not built in a day, I'm not even convinced Bitcoin will really flourish next year. It might take many years. But as long as it's functional and legal there are very good odds we'll see good things in the future.

I've got to say I agree with many of the things you said here.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: MaxSan on October 18, 2011, 02:31:09 PM
I almost made a new thread but I'll simply use this thread.

I think that we're currently in a very clear dead cat bounce situation and we will actually be locked into a cycle of bouncing for a while now. This is because most people have now accepted the fact that there will be no major uptrend in the near future, so nobody is willing to drive the price to $5+.

Now what this means is that every time we go up a certain percentage, there will be massive selling pressure. A very high percentage of all activity will be simply day trading. The bag holders don't want to sell if they haven't already, because they think the price can't go much lower anymore.

On the other hand people waiting to buy are not sure if it's low enough yet and are very caucious, most likely waiting for the price to go lower.

This to me looks like we will be fairly stable for the next few months and possibly bottom out at lower than $2.x at some point. After that it's really upto the real Bitcoin economy what'll happen, if there are real developments and increased adoption, we will have a new uptrend. This uptrend will be more massive than anything so far if it takes off, but it won't be based on pure hype. Stuff needs to happen.

But an economy is not built in a day, I'm not even convinced Bitcoin will really flourish next year. It might take many years. But as long as it's functional and legal there are very good odds we'll see good things in the future.

I've got to say I agree with many of the things you said here.

I also match agreement. Heres to le future.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: dancupid on October 18, 2011, 03:16:46 PM
I almost made a new thread but I'll simply use this thread.

I think that we're currently in a very clear dead cat bounce situation and we will actually be locked into a cycle of bouncing for a while now. This is because most people have now accepted the fact that there will be no major uptrend in the near future, so nobody is willing to drive the price to $5+.

Now what this means is that every time we go up a certain percentage, there will be massive selling pressure. A very high percentage of all activity will be simply day trading. The bag holders don't want to sell if they haven't already, because they think the price can't go much lower anymore.

On the other hand people waiting to buy are not sure if it's low enough yet and are very caucious, most likely waiting for the price to go lower.

This to me looks like we will be fairly stable for the next few months and possibly bottom out at lower than $2.x at some point. After that it's really upto the real Bitcoin economy what'll happen, if there are real developments and increased adoption, we will have a new uptrend. This uptrend will be more massive than anything so far if it takes off, but it won't be based on pure hype. Stuff needs to happen.

But an economy is not built in a day, I'm not even convinced Bitcoin will really flourish next year. It might take many years. But as long as it's functional and legal there are very good odds we'll see good things in the future.

You've just described capitalism and the free market.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: walidzohair on October 19, 2011, 06:39:34 AM
I almost made a new thread but I'll simply use this thread.

I think that we're currently in a very clear dead cat bounce situation and we will actually be locked into a cycle of bouncing for a while now. This is because most people have now accepted the fact that there will be no major uptrend in the near future, so nobody is willing to drive the price to $5+.

Now what this means is that every time we go up a certain percentage, there will be massive selling pressure. A very high percentage of all activity will be simply day trading. The bag holders don't want to sell if they haven't already, because they think the price can't go much lower anymore.

On the other hand people waiting to buy are not sure if it's low enough yet and are very caucious, most likely waiting for the price to go lower.

This to me looks like we will be fairly stable for the next few months and possibly bottom out at lower than $2.x at some point. After that it's really upto the real Bitcoin economy what'll happen, if there are real developments and increased adoption, we will have a new uptrend. This uptrend will be more massive than anything so far if it takes off, but it won't be based on pure hype. Stuff needs to happen.

But an economy is not built in a day, I'm not even convinced Bitcoin will really flourish next year. It might take many years. But as long as it's functional and legal there are very good odds we'll see good things in the future.

You've just described capitalism and the free market.





Well excuse me ... But i believe the CAT will be dead or playing dead for fairly long long time before she can jump up again and run.. well , fairly long enough to shake off all the leach hit-and-run miners and traders.

And again, and no matter how much you say this is a repeated talk of nonsense, the difficulty is the key to look up what is going on .. but this time i say not just the difficulty .. it is the difficulty combined with the total network hash.



Because the current situation is a crazy so so so much stretched difficultly with insane mining power! So the cat is playing DEAD And it will keep it like that to shake off those mine-and-run and trade-and-run leaches.


Only, and it is jut the only way, the difficulty settle down at sane level combined by reasonable network hash power. then the cat will be up and running again.


The only exception to that is the introduction of the law, religion, big-ass market adoption or political power (or any other similar non-sense spiritual power) to force in huge number of daily users and drive the demand up.


Like in case of a residential decision to use bitcoin as the official currency for the united colonies of beavers or colored republic of birds, ummm or a sun religious direction to the sun flowers around the earth or maybe the a royal adoption by the kingdom of mars aliens... or if you are lucky some ancient writings are discovered on the great wall of ants that tells them to use only bitcoin or a lucky adoption by Assbook users, fart electronic cards around the globe , .. etc which is not likely to happen any time soon if it will at all.


Until then we will enjoy decorating the R.I.P Bitcoin Grave with a lot of sorrow and speculation section forum posts.











Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: Technomage on October 19, 2011, 07:18:45 AM
I can guarantee that the difficulty will go down significantly, but not right a way. It will be a gradual process.

For me the cat is showing signs of life again when we go at least a month without a new bottom for both the price and network transaction count.
 
The end of continuous decline is desperately needed before we can hope for better times.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: molecular on October 19, 2011, 07:55:39 AM
Until then we will enjoy decorating the R.I.P Bitcoin Grave with a lot of sorrow and speculation section forum posts.

Oh, damn... I thought this was a link that would lead to a page where I could put some virtual flowers after buying them for bitcoin.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: walidzohair on October 19, 2011, 09:03:05 AM
Until then we will enjoy decorating the R.I.P Bitcoin Grave with a lot of sorrow and speculation section forum posts.

Oh, damn... I thought this was a link that would lead to a page where I could put some virtual flowers after buying them for bitcoin.


loooool. well it was .. but the flower shop does not accept BTC any more! :D


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: walidzohair on October 19, 2011, 10:25:05 PM
The real reason behind the bitcoin death is the fact:



There are 7.5 million BTC .. 6 million out of them bought or mined at the price of (200 bitcoins for one dollar).

so no matter how much new investments to buy BTC .. there will be always a lot more BTC to dump.


Until the price stabilize again at 0.005 or in fact at 0.0025 as we are in the sell mood.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: Vandroiy on October 20, 2011, 01:27:24 AM
Until the price stabilize again at 0.005 or in fact at 0.0025 as we are in the sell mood.

Please be a troll.

0.0025 means one can buy the entire market for 20k USD. Get some sleep and think this over.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: PatrickHarnett on October 20, 2011, 01:35:57 AM

0.0025 means one can buy the entire market for 20k USD. Get some sleep and think this over.

This thread is still going?  I thought it might have "died faster than bitcoin" ha ha ha ha ha

The point about the minimum "market value" is relevant here, and this reinforces it.  Other threads and the bitcoin users in general have an appetite to have some coin even if only as a curiosity.  A few people with $100 each supports that 0.001 price, but more likely if it got below $100k I would be genuinely surprised ($70,000 for 7 million coins is 1 cent each).  At the moment it's still 200+ times tat amount.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: TiagoTiago on October 20, 2011, 02:28:37 AM
Someone should make a game kinda like those 2d scroller pseudo golf games like that one from Yeti Sports (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFp3Cv4FkKg), but with a dead cat ragdoll with a Bitcoin symbol in it being thrown around instead of a penguin.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: walidzohair on October 23, 2011, 04:23:58 AM

0.0025 means one can buy the entire market for 20k USD. Get some sleep and think this over.

This thread is still going?  I thought it might have "died faster than bitcoin" ha ha ha ha ha

The point about the minimum "market value" is relevant here, and this reinforces it.  Other threads and the bitcoin users in general have an appetite to have some coin even if only as a curiosity.  A few people with $100 each supports that 0.001 price, but more likely if it got below $100k I would be genuinely surprised ($70,000 for 7 million coins is 1 cent each).  At the moment it's still 200+ times tat amount.


Well Actually buying the whole BTC for 20k $ is kinda over priced. As the whole project is still under development and 20k $ is not the kind of money that would any one put in something to find out in couple weeks or months it worth of 10 $.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: Tronlet on October 24, 2011, 01:26:49 AM
Um, yeah, the average person probably wouldn't invest 20k in bitcoin. You're telling me you determine a currency's value by whether or not the average person would be able to buy up every unit of that currency? Are you kidding me? Not to mention that you can't buy them all that easily and can't buy them all at all most likely. The price will go up as you buy them, and will rise exponentially after you've gotten the first couple million. Even if it did drop to .005 or even .00001, once you bought all the bitcoins being offered for that price you'd have to pay the next higher seller, and so on.

But regardless of the mini-essay I just wrote, let's get back to the main point, which is how hilarious it is that you think a currency's value should be determined by whether or not a single user of that currency could buy up all the units.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: walidzohair on November 11, 2011, 02:13:47 PM
I still think overmining is teh problem. yet I am expecting teh invention of a new technology that can mine 100,000 BTC a day.

But teh question is how many world wide would belive in it after all the BTCs have been harvested and daily transactions are pice of cake ?


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: DeathAndTaxes on November 11, 2011, 02:19:22 PM
I still think overmining is teh problem. yet I am expecting teh invention of a new technology that can mine 100,000 BTC a day.

But teh question is how many world wide would belive in it after all the BTCs have been harvested and daily transactions are pice of cake ?

Do you understand how difficulty works.  There is no invention that can generate more than 7,200 BTC daily for the entire planet.  In about a year that will be 3,600 BTC daily.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: deepceleron on November 11, 2011, 02:27:10 PM
I still think overmining is teh problem. yet I am expecting teh invention of a new technology that can mine 100,000 BTC a day.

But teh question is how many world wide would belive in it after all the BTCs have been harvested and daily transactions are pice of cake ?

Do you understand how difficulty works.  There is no invention that can generate more than 7,200 BTC daily for the entire planet.  In about a year that will be 3,600 BTC daily.

2016 blocks = 100800 BTC. At the start of a new difficulty, a dedicated agency like the NSA could probably mine 100,000 BTC in a day. Keeping the same hashrate they could mine another 100,000 in four days at the new difficulty they set. If you doubt this, remember the NSA has their own chip fab...they might have even tested their tech, search for "mystery miner (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=10452.msg155428#msg155428)"...


Getting back on topic, I'm ready to go bounce these cats...
http://www.typicallyspanish.com/spain/uploads/2/matagatos.jpg


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: trogdorjw73 on November 11, 2011, 05:02:08 PM
Difficulty doesn't just adjust in huge steps as I understand it; if the past several blocks are solved quickly, the real-time difficulty will adjust as well.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: DeathAndTaxes on November 11, 2011, 05:16:01 PM
Difficulty doesn't just adjust in huge steps as I understand it; if the past several blocks are solved quickly, the real-time difficulty will adjust as well.

No.  It only adjusts every 2016 blocks.  In hindsight some sort of continually adjusting formula (likely exponential decay of past 2016 blocks) which altered difficulty after each block would have been better ... for a lot of reasons.  For example namecoin would have never gotten "trapped" if difficulty adjusted after each block.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: 2112 on November 11, 2011, 06:06:15 PM
In hindsight some sort of continually adjusting formula (likely exponential decay of past 2016 blocks) which altered difficulty after each block would have been better ... for a lot of reasons.
I don't think that would converge globally. With frequent adjustments each pool would distrust blocks from the others and the network would split into islands. Infrequent adjustments decrease the probability of network splits. 2016 may not be optimal, but seem very safe to assume that in two weeks a clear maximum difficulty leader will stabilize globally.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: DeathAndTaxes on November 11, 2011, 07:36:19 PM
In hindsight some sort of continually adjusting formula (likely exponential decay of past 2016 blocks) which altered difficulty after each block would have been better ... for a lot of reasons.
I don't think that would converge globally. With frequent adjustments each pool would distrust blocks from the others and the network would split into islands. Infrequent adjustments decrease the probability of network splits. 2016 may not be optimal, but seem very safe to assume that in two weeks a clear maximum difficulty leader will stabilize globally.

Pools don't need to trust other pools.  IF the block is valid difficulty is adjusted.  Using an exponential decay function would avoid fluctuations and instead a smoother difficulty adjustment.  Currently pools need to trust the 2016th block when they recompute the difficulty once every 2016 blocks.

Quote
Infrequent adjustments decrease the probability of network splits.
Difficulty adjustments don't split networks.  Orphaned blocks split networks.  I mean what is going to happen a pool is going to trust the block as valid ans work on that block chain but then not trust the difficulty adjustment despite their client computing the exact same difficulty adjustment?


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: old_engineer on November 11, 2011, 08:39:42 PM

2016 blocks = 100800 BTC. At the start of a new difficulty, a dedicated agency like the NSA could probably mine 100,000 BTC in a day. Keeping the same hashrate they could mine another 100,000 in four days at the new difficulty they set. If you doubt this, remember the NSA has their own chip fab...they might have even tested their tech, search for "mystery miner (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=10452.msg155428#msg155428)"...


Looks like mystery miner only mined a max of 500 GH:
http://bitcoin.atspace.com/mm.png
.. which is now less than 5% of the global hashrate of 10 TH.  I'm guessing this is someone at Pixar or some other render farm.

To mine an entire difficulty adjustment in a day would take 14 times the current network speed of, or 140 TH, which is 280 times the mystery miner's peak hashrate.  We're safe from this mystery miner, but it doesn't say anything about the NSA, who does have the resources to

I'm guessing most of the NSA thinks bitcoin is cool - they're just a bunch of crypto-geeks, after all.  It's about what the top brass thinks: is bitcoin an emerging threat that should be taken out, or is it a technological breakthrough that should be nurtured, not fucked with?  My guess is the latter, but not for reasons of the public good.  Rather, with their intel capabilities, the public blockchain could be a boon for their investigative teams.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: 2112 on November 11, 2011, 09:08:15 PM
In hindsight some sort of continually adjusting formula (likely exponential decay of past 2016 blocks) which altered difficulty after each block would have been better ... for a lot of reasons.
I don't think that would converge globally. With frequent adjustments each pool would distrust blocks from the others and the network would split into islands. Infrequent adjustments decrease the probability of network splits. 2016 may not be optimal, but seem very safe to assume that in two weeks a clear maximum difficulty leader will stabilize globally.

Pools don't need to trust other pools.  IF the block is valid difficulty is adjusted.  Using an exponential decay function would avoid fluctuations and instead a smoother difficulty adjustment.  Currently pools need to trust the 2016th block when they recompute the difficulty once every 2016 blocks.

Quote
Infrequent adjustments decrease the probability of network splits.
Difficulty adjustments don't split networks.  Orphaned blocks split networks.  I mean what is going to happen a pool is going to trust the block as valid ans work on that block chain but then not trust the difficulty adjustment despite their client computing the exact same difficulty adjustment?
Dude, far out. You could've just written: sorry, I had a thinko. Now you've proven that you don't understand the basics of the global convergence of the Bitcoin protocol. I guess I now better understand the plight of Gavin and other core developers that simply clam up and don't discuss any changes in the core protocol. One one hand miners are essential to the overall security, but on the other hand miners most likely don't understand what makes that network stable.

I normally cut the quotes, but this one is worth preserving in full.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: TiagoTiago on November 12, 2011, 12:54:37 AM

2016 blocks = 100800 BTC. At the start of a new difficulty, a dedicated agency like the NSA could probably mine 100,000 BTC in a day. Keeping the same hashrate they could mine another 100,000 in four days at the new difficulty they set. If you doubt this, remember the NSA has their own chip fab...they might have even tested their tech, search for "mystery miner (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=10452.msg155428#msg155428)"...


Looks like mystery miner only mined a max of 500 GH:
http://bitcoin.atspace.com/mm.png
.. which is now less than 5% of the global hashrate of 10 TH.  I'm guessing this is someone at Pixar or some other render farm.

To mine an entire difficulty adjustment in a day would take 14 times the current network speed of, or 140 TH, which is 280 times the mystery miner's peak hashrate.  We're safe from this mystery miner...

Is there any reason to be confident that was MM's full power and not just a small test to see if the system worked? Or that even if it was his full power at the time he hasn't invested in more hardware?


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: old_engineer on November 12, 2011, 01:22:15 AM
Is there any reason to be confident that was MM's full power and not just a small test to see if the system worked? Or that even if it was his full power at the time he hasn't invested in more hardware?
No, there's no way to be confident given that MM scaled up and then stopped once they reached 50% of the total network power.

But scaling up to 280 times their earlier rate is not an easy thing to do, and is not as simple as buying 280 times more hardware: MM would require additional floorspace likely in a hosted location, HVAC, more power outlets, more breakers, bigger power drop, etc. If each machine/device gets 1 GH, they'd need 140,000 machines/devices.  There might not even be enough floorspace in a local hosted location, and they'd have to construct their own facility to house the operation, a multi-year project in and of itself.

Also, there's installation time: it took MM two weeks to scale up to 500 GH, and at that installation rate, it would take 10 years to install 140 TH.  Clearly it would need to be a whole team to work on such a project, perhaps two: one larger one for install, and another for upkeep.

MM's scale and timing was just about right for an unused or underused render farm between projects.  500 GH is a couple of thousand machines, and three weeks of scaling then suddenly ending sounds about right from a business perspective, too.

And if you are still worried, support your local FPGA miner!  It's the only way to attempt to scale up and compete with this or any other future Mystery Miner.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: deepceleron on November 12, 2011, 02:38:47 AM
Is there any reason to be confident that was MM's full power and not just a small test to see if the system worked? Or that even if it was his full power at the time he hasn't invested in more hardware?
No, there's no way to be confident given that MM scaled up and then stopped once they reached 50% of the total network power.

But scaling up to 280 times their earlier rate is not an easy thing to do, and is not as simple as buying 280 times more hardware: MM would require additional floorspace likely in a hosted location, HVAC, more power outlets, more breakers, bigger power drop, etc. If each machine/device gets 1 GH, they'd need 140,000 machines/devices.  There might not even be enough floorspace in a local hosted location, and they'd have to construct their own facility to house the operation, a multi-year project in and of itself.

Also, there's installation time: it took MM two weeks to scale up to 500 GH, and at that installation rate, it would take 10 years to install 140 TH.  Clearly it would need to be a whole team to work on such a project, perhaps two: one larger one for install, and another for upkeep.

MM's scale and timing was just about right for an unused or underused render farm between projects.  500 GH is a couple of thousand machines, and three weeks of scaling then suddenly ending sounds about right from a business perspective, too.

And if you are still worried, support your local FPGA miner!  It's the only way to attempt to scale up and compete with this or any other future Mystery Miner.
Visualize a 1U server packed full of custom ASIC crypto-hashers chips, then picture a rack of 30 of those 1U servers, then picture a row of 20 racks of those:
http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5265/5623036594_072610e926.jpg

Then picture an aircraft hangar-sized building filled with that:
http://a.yfrog.com/img616/721/1grdg.jpg

Then picture more than ten of those aircraft hangars around the world. And these pictures are just Facebook, not a government.


Title: Re: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!
Post by: molecular on November 12, 2011, 01:03:58 PM
Then picture more than ten of those aircraft hangars around the world. And these pictures are just Facebook, not a government.

Picture world peace.

Well, it's more likely than that, got to give you that much.