Bitcoin Forum

Hello!

I think a rally is incoming, I even bet all my BTC on that (I had about 40 freely available BTC, I dumped it all on bitcoinica, liquidated and bought all the margin in BTC...)

And today analyst post confirms it...


So, are you all excited for the new bitcoin times?

I am myself, I will even dust off my credit card, and buy its limit (about 1000 USD) again in BTC =D

The charts are looking interesting, that is for sure. It will be a wonderful to say 'we now know it was a correction, not a bubble!'. Hopefully that will be possible.

Maybe there will, maybe there wont, but one thing is for sure: if there is another rally it will be a speculative bubble that will again burst. And this cycle will continue until bitcoins are more commonly used as a way to pay for things, thereby creating real and not speculated value.

I'm hoping for a rally.  Got Asks in place ready to be filled.  Also need the price to be $9+ at current difficulty to make mining profitable (inc. all costs, not just power).

We aren't quite ready for a rally yet, there will be heavy resistance @6 but it will probably overshoot. In fact I'm betting on it ;)

I expect it to break $8 :)

I'm expecting it to go below $5

As do I as it already has in the last 12 hours, but that will hopefully just be a dip along the way up.

I'm hoping prices stay stable between $4.50 and $6.50, like they have been over the past couple weeks. It's kinda nice. Maybe if they keep staying like this, retailers will actually start jumping on the BTC wagon and the price of BTC will start to slowly increase.

I disagree on both items; retailers dont need stable prices to start accepting bitcoins. They can price in dollar and use a platform like bit-pay.com to take out the exchange rate risk. Secondly, if retailers would start accepting bitcoins, its value would not likely rise slowly, but Im pretty sure it would cause a new giant speculative bubble.

And no, btc price would not stabilize now, far from it. The "stable" price just means nobody wants to sell at this low price & nobody wants to buy yet expecting the price to move lower, thus consensus. As soon as it swings in either direction, rally up starts and goes until the majority does not decide it's time to start selling, then it will be going up-and-down until the new equilibrium is found. Rinse, repeat. It will not stabilize for any sensible period of time in the next several years, stop dreaming about it.

You guys are something else. Somebody manipulates the price and foces the bitcoin price above $5.00, I noticed the little wall there yesterday at 5.00 at around 2800  bitcoins. Since then it must have went to $5.6 as that is the high. It would not take much money to move the market.

Why do I say manipulate? Because it was some big buyer who could have bought them much cheaper than $5 - $5.6 if he just bought them slowly in the $4 dollar range.

Nothing has really changed, as some people pointed out here, why should bitcoins rally any higher?

Bit-pay.com doesn't instantly cash out. With fluxations like they have been in the recent months, 2hrs could cost a large company hundred of thousands of dollars. (I said large, not a multi-national corporation)

So yeah, price needs to have stability for it to be feasible to run a real business in BTC.


Yeah, you're probably right.

Ah well, I can dream.

Have you ever wondered what might happen if there was hyper USD inflation and it was actually less painful to keep updating BTC prices than USD?

Network hash rate along with difficulty continues to drop. This can be taken in several ways, one being the geek coolness of mining is drying up which in turns means fewer interested people which in turn means fewer buyers thus lower prices. Of course you could have massive mining rigs who just don't see the cost benefit at mining at these price levels however I don't understand that thought process as I would approach the price changes as dollar cost averaging. Why on earth would you site on thousands of dollars of mining hardware when you could offset those cost with mining which you may be losing at today's difficulty/price ratio but you cost average that against what you made in the past at far lower difficulty/price points, yes?

There was some mention in the summer that we could expect to see a drop off in mining as school went back in session which if true blows my above theory out of the water.

Disclosure: I bought all in last week at 4.55 so just missed that bottom but so far looks like a damn good call.

Rally is incoming, that's true. But the question is how long do we have to wait. Currently I see, for the first time in a long time, a slight pressure for a higher price. This pressure is building up, with buyers slowly taking their orders higher and getting more restless. The fear starts to form in their minds that maybe, just maybe, there is not going to be a new low.

This is a slow process and we might be seeing one or more mini-rallys again before there is a larger one. It's interesting times.

Have you ever tried to buy at the equilibrium? I know you didn't, so explaining - there's just not enough volume. When you spend even 100k at current prices, the move up is inevitable.

I agree with this. The last time someone attempted a large buy the price stabilized back down relatively quickly. I feel that now we are near the point where moves like that will act as a spark for other movements as well. We'll see, even now there is less than $100k standing between the current price and $6+.

Of course, to some degree, but every time buyers or sellers do a large instant trade the price will go back to what it used to be almost instantly. Knowing this it seems pretty stupid not to spread them out a bit. They may be trying to trigger a rally or sell off, but if so it doesn't seem to work very well compared to how much money they waste trying to push the price.

I guess the orderbook is like the blockchain. Everyone wants to control it.

They claim there is no risk for the merchant, who gets paid in dollar (or euro or whatever) so I assume they do cash out instantly, or as instantly as possible. Whatever small risk there is with a 10 minute or whatever delay, Im sure they can cover it with their fee.

Really? Wow. I guess I shouldn't talk about things I don't know about. From the little bit I read, I thought it was more of a shopping cart system that did the Bitcoin math for you. I didn't know the merchants actually got paid in fiat. If they do, that's very very cool.

Yep Bit-pay's system is fantastic. They give merchant the option of taking the Bitcoin payment as Bitcoins (charging .99% fee) or as USD (charging 2.99%).  If taken as USD, the exchange is made almost immediately at the time of the transaction, minimizing exchange rate risk almost to the point of being irrelevant. Merchant gets paid in USD deposit to their bank account within 24 hours.

This means that vendors don't have to care/know about Bitcoin at all! They don't even have to know what it is... they just receive dollars with a 2.99% fee, lower than most credit card merchant accounts (and without chargeback risk).

but wheres the affiliate schemes? theres a whole economy out there thats not been tapped

All in good time. Bit-pay is in early stages, they are in pilot mode and still need time to work on the system before mass-marketing is a possibility. What they need right now is coders, I think. And I am quite sure there are already competitors working on similar systems. In the next 6 months I feel the online, mobile merchant services etc. will go to another level, which will give a very significant boost to the Bitcoin economy (the real economy, besides speculation/trade).

I hope so. I cant code myself but I dont think its too complicated. problem is the slight time delay and gaining trust after the mybitcoin drama, but those arent big issues

Ah, thats the first time I see their rates. They are a higher than I had thought (/hoped) and TBH, too close to credit cards I think to make many merchants jump on the opportunity. In fact, Im not sure but isnt 3% higher than you'd pay for most credit card merchant systems?

I understand they have fixed costs to cover with very little business right now, but if needed, they should seek funding (AFAICT, there is no VC funding or?) so they have breathing space to aggressively price their services and get this business going. <1% should be their goal IMHO, or at least low enough so that its a real advantage for merchants.

I think 3% is more or less what credit cards companies charge. Paypal fees also start at 3%. The difference here is that bit-pay's 3% include a currency conversion. Fees for that are usually much higher.

I would say that bit-pay allows a merchant not to lose money by accepting Bitcoin, which is not a bad deal right now.

In the case of paypal it much depends on volume. They offer much cheaper conditions for big clients.

Me also thinks that 3% is way too much to encourage merchants to switch. I know I wouldn't..
On the long road there probably is no way around a decentralized escrow service which would cost far less then bitpay. Given they are pioneers and they have a quasi monopoly since there isn't any competition yet those prices are understandable but if any of the sort I mentioned emerge they would have to cut their prices. The possibility that this will come up in about a year is very likely imo since it would give miners a additional possibility for income.

Its a start I guess, but at those rates, not much of an incentive for more established online merchants, particularly when you consider how small the target audience still is. For niche products like.. , say, alpaca socks, it might be good as the free publicity that they get would make it worth it, but the 0.x% lower fees (if that, Im not even convinced) isnt going to entice many to invest a lot of time and research in accepting a "drug currency" or online "pyramid scam".

Then again I imagine if Amazon or newegg where to give them a call, those 2.99% would be negotiable. :)

A "drug currency" would be the US dollar.  That stupid Gawker article did nothing but damage Bitcoin in my opinion.  As far as "pyramid scam" I will just assume you have no idea what you are talking about. 

There is a lot to be gained by a method of trade which bypasses international exchange rates, credit card processing fees and chargebacks all at the same time...not to mention the difficulty in counterfeiting and the ability to carry millions of dollars on a flash drive if you so choose.  If you cannot see the potential then don't invest, I currently have nothing in stocks for that reason...the stock market does nothing but hurt the economy (in my opinion) and next time they mess up I doubt the US will be able to bail them out.  That is the best thing about Bitcoin in my opinion...the option to fail.  Everything should be allowed to fail if needed otherwise how can we ever improve.

Most merchants pay less than 3% to credit card companies.  If bit-pay wants to be widely adopted it needs to offer rates much lower than the existing credit card infrastructure.  Credit cards are widely accepted and used.  Bitcoin is still trying to get into the market.  Charging as much or more than credit cards doesn't seem like a smart way to attract business. 

If they charged .65%, they would make what gox makes on every trade! This would amount to 1.3%...still less than CC!

I think you missed the quotation marks. But indeed the average online merchant will have no idea what you are talking about when you bring up bitcoin, and if he has, he might well associate bitcoin with drugs, scams, and malware,  that is a big part of the problem.

I see an upcoming rally, the technical indicators are too strong. We will be back to double digits by early October.

The reason its associated with those things is that people have made Bitcoin appear as though it is nothing but a "drug currency" or "scam".  The Gawker article was one of the biggest news pieces to come out about Bitcoin in the last few months.  Also, It might help a bit if the "official unofficial" forum wasn't full of FUD all the time.  A lot of people (or should I say user names) on this forum spend a disproportionate amount of time trying to discredit Bitcoin (typically new members with very few posts or people with 30+ posts a day).  Not to mention that "Allinvain" BS, talk about supertrolling, that did as much damage by being the number 1 Google trended topic related to Bitcoin than the Mt.Gox hack ever did (it really didn't help the 2 were so close together in time right when it was getting popular.  Coincidence?).  

Bitpay is not the only option for payment on sites...there are many plugins for various types of CMS which allow you to accept BTC for near 0% fees.  Then your only fees are Mt.Gox fees and the cost of getting it from Mt.Gox to your bank (Dwolla $.25, even a bank transfer is cheap by the percentage if you transfer enough at a time).  If more people talked about those things there would be significantly more people using it to accept payments...not to mention sending money around the world.

People are scared of everything new...I remember 10 years ago my parents (and others) saying they would never do something as stupid as giving a credit card number to a website, now it is commonplace.

More important than the transaction fees is the fact that you cannot do a chargeback...that alone should bring in more merchants (if only it was pointed out more often).  Bitcoin to me is as safe (maybe safer) than cash due to the fact that you can encrypt your wallet.dat (and you can easily have multiple wallets offline).  

If you think Bitcoin is great (like I do) spend time telling people about it.  Use it on your site if you can.  Most of all tell people about the good points or your good experiences and don't be a scammer.  Let people know that if you use it properly it's as safe as any other form of payment (maybe safer in some ways), if you continually bring up the FUD about malware, scams, and pyramid schemes that's all people will know.  

As has been said before, Bitcoin needs to be used for more than just day trading.  It needs to be a means of exchange of goods/services also.  We are all involved in something very interesting and experimental that could possibly change the way people conduct business online.  Fear and greed are the only things that can bring it down.