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Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: RejectedBanana on June 15, 2018, 06:22:40 PM



Title: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: RejectedBanana on June 15, 2018, 06:22:40 PM
I'd like to track Speculative Milestones with a few Historical Milestones for reference.

Is this of value? Anything to contribute? edit: Thanks for contributions, I'll keep adding them.

Speculative Milestones
10-Aug-2018 SEC to make decision on latest ETF filing (https://coingape.com/bitcoin-etf-august-10th-revival-of-bitcoin-price/)
14-Feb-2019 Mt Gox Trustee to Issue Court Proposal Fulfilling Civil Rehabilitation Claims (https://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-crypto-bitcoin-exchange-creditors-win/)
21-02-2019 SEC Approves Bitcoin ETF (http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/hyland-1st-bitcoin-etf-closer-reality?nopaging=1)??
??-??-2019 Lightning Network Release (exit Beta testing)
26-May-2020 Bitcoin Block Reward Halves from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC (89.063% Mined) (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply)

Historical Milestones
02-July-2018 Coinbase Custody is Officially Open For Business (https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-custody-is-officially-open-for-business-182c297d65d9)
22-June-2018 Mt Gox Victims to be Repaid in Bitcoin as Case Enters Civil Rehabilitation in Major Win for Creditors (https://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-crypto-bitcoin-exchange-creditors-win/) Backstory (https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/22/17151430/bankruptcy-mt-gox-liabilities-bitcoin)
18-June-2018 Square Receives NY BitLicense, Cash App Now Offers BTC Trading for New York Users (https://cointelegraph.com/news/square-receives-ny-bitlicense-cash-app-now-offers-btc-trading-for-new-york-users)
14-June-2018 SEC: Bitcoin and Ether are not Securities (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/14/bitcoin-and-ethereum-are-not-securities-but-some-cryptocurrencies-may-be-sec-official-says.html)
10-June-2018 CFTC commissioner: Bitcoin is a Modern Miracle That is Not Going Away (http://bitcoinist.com/cftc-commissioner-bitcoin-not-going-away/)
08-June-2018 U.S. Regulator Demands Trading Data From Bitcoin Exchanges in Manipulation Probe (https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-regulators-demand-trading-data-from-bitcoin-exchanges-in-manipulation-probe-1528492835)
05-June-2018 Bitcoin Dies 300th Time (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-dies-for-the-300th-time-trading-at-7300)
24-May-2018 U.S. Launches Criminal Probe into Bitcoin Price Manipulation (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-24/bitcoin-manipulation-is-said-to-be-focus-of-u-s-criminal-probe)
17-May-2018 It's Not Bitcoin Trading — But J.P. Morgan Names Head of Crypto-Assets Strategy, Oliver Harris (http://fortune.com/2018/05/17/jpmorgan-bitcoin-cryptocurrency/)
15-May-2018 LedgerX Launches First CFTC-Regulated Bitcoin Savings Accounts (https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldelcastillo/2018/05/15/ledgerx-launches-first-cftc-regulated-bitcoin-savings-accounts/#11b8128f8094)
15-May-2018 Coinbase Launches Institutional Products (https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-institutional-deea317d23af)
09-May-2018 Ukraine’s Securities Commission Chief Seeks Legalization of Cryptocurrencies as Financial Instruments
03-May-2018 [url=https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/02/technology/bitcoin-goldman-sachs.html]Goldman Sachs to Open a Bitcoin Trading Operation by End June (https://news.bitcoin.com/ukraines-securities-commission-chief-seeks-legalization-of-cryptocurrencies-as-financial-instruments/)
15-Mar-2018 Lightning Network Beta Goes Live On The Bitcoin Mainnet (https://www.investinblockchain.com/lightning-network-beta-release/)
07-Mar-2018 Mt GOX trustee Kobayashi said that enough BTC has been sold to cover the claims of creditors (https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20180307_report.pdf)
05-Feb-2018 Bitcoin Correction $5920
28-Dec-2017 First real bitcoin payment using lightning network through BitRefill (https://news.bitcoin.com/first-real-bitcoin-lightning-network-payment-completed-via-bitrefill/) (Bitrefill reached 1BTC in total payments through LN after 5 months (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4164170.0))
19-Dec-2017 Coinbase Lists BCash
16-Dec-2017 Bitcoin ATH $19,666
08-Dec-2017 Mempool and Fees ATH (>170k transactions in the mempool, >80 MB)
04-Dec-2017 Bitcoin Dies 200th Time (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-rip-cryptocurrency-dies-200th-time-just-as-price-hits-11k)
08-Nov-2017 Segwit2x Fork Cancelled Due to Lack of Community Support (https://news.bitcoin.com/breaking-news-segwit2x-fork-cancelled/)
01-Nov-2017 Bitcoin Gold forks (GPU Mining)
24-Aug-2017 SegWit Activated
01-Aug-2017 BCash Forks (8MB blocks, sans Segwit)
03-July-2017 Japan eliminates tax on bitcoin payments (https://cointelegraph.com/news/its-official-japan-has-eliminated-tax-on-bitcoin-rise-in-trading-expected)
02-Apr-2017 Japan accepts bitcoin as a legal payment method aka a currency (https://www.coindesk.com/japan-bitcoin-law-effect-tomorrow/)
09-July-2016 Bitcoin Block Reward Halves from 25 to 12.5 BTC (78.125% Mined) (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply)
14-Jan-2016 Mike Hearn declares Bitcoin dead (https://blog.plan99.net/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7#.fn9ngkl1p)
15-Jan-2015 Bitcoin Unlimited forks (16MB blocks)
07-June-2015 Bitcoin Has Died Nearly 100 Times (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-dies-for-the-300th-time-trading-at-7300)
10-Feb-2016 Bitcoin Classic forks (2MB blocks)
11-Jan-2015 Bitcoin Correction $152
27-Dec-2014 Bitcoin XT forks (8MB blocks)
28-Feb-2014 Mt Gox Declares Bankruptcy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mt._Gox)
24-Nov-2013 Bitcoin ATH $1242
07-Apr-2013 Bitcoin ATH $266
01-Apr-2013 Bitcoin Value Surpasses $100--Is This Another Bubble? (https://venturebeat.com/2013/04/01/bitcoin-value-above-100-bubble/)
28-Nov-2012 Bitcoin Block Reward Halves from 50 to 25 BTC (56.25% Mined) (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply)
21-Oct-2012 Bitcoin Correction $9.50
12-Aug-2012 Bitcoin 2012 High $16.41
11-Nov-2011 Wired Magazine: The Rise and Fall of Bitcoin (https://www.wired.com/2011/11/mf_bitcoin/)
16-Oct-2011 Bitcoin Correction $1.99
05-June-2011 Bitcoin ATH $32
22-May-2010 Lazlo Buys Two Pizzas for 10,000 BTC (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Laszlo_Hanyecz)  
03-Jan-2009 Bitcoin Genesis Block Mined
31-Oct-2008 Satoshi Nakamoto Whitepaper Released

Other Great Timelines
Timeline of Bitcoin (https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_Bitcoin)
Bitcoin Obituaries (https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries/)
Bitcoin Price Chart With Historical Events (https://99bitcoins.com/price-chart-history/)
Wikipedia History of Bitcoin (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin)
History of Bitcoin.org (http://historyofbitcoin.org/)

14-Jan-2016 Mike heard basically calls bitcoin dead. "The death spiral begins" (https://blog.plan99.net/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7#.fn9ngkl1p)

we got a 25% discount on bitcoin sales thanks to this FUD and then prepared for the launch to the moon. it sounds silly now that i think about how i bought bitcoin around $350 that day :D

https://i.imgur.com/cjhV3CA.jpg


bitcoin history:

http://historyofbitcoin.org/


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: exstasie on June 15, 2018, 10:30:59 PM
I'd like to track Speculative Milestones with a few Historical Milestones for reference.

Is this of value?

Sure, I like to use these sorts of threads as reference points. Thanks for taking the time.

Speculative Milestones
??-??-2019 Lightning Network Release (exit Beta testing)

Considering that Bitcoin Core (based on its versioning sequence) is still in beta, I'd say we're much further off than this. I think Lightning adoption (like Bitcoin adoption) will front-run stable end-user software by many years.


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: eminemcookie on June 16, 2018, 02:35:13 AM
I always enjoy seeing these because it shows just how much prices have tended to increase on the halvings. If the same happens again then we can be set for a big increase in just around 2-3 years time, doesn't seem to be too much time to wait.


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: pooya87 on June 16, 2018, 04:03:27 AM
07-April-2013 Bitcoin ATH $266
21-Oct-2012 Bitcoin Correction $9.50
12-Aug-2012 Bitcoin 2012 High $16.41
16-Oct-2011 Bitcoin Correction $1.99
05-June-2011 Bitcoin ATH $32

i think we need to start a lot more discussions about all the bitcoin bubbles other than the 2013 one so that people can start seeing the bigger picture and stop thinking just because 2013 is the easiest thing to find on the charts there is no other point of reference when it comes to bubbles and bear markets after them.


02-April-2017 Japan accepts bitcoin as a legal payment method aka a currency (https://www.coindesk.com/japan-bitcoin-law-effect-tomorrow/)
03-July-2017 Japan eliminates tax on bitcoin payments (https://cointelegraph.com/news/its-official-japan-has-eliminated-tax-on-bitcoin-rise-in-trading-expected)

28-Dec-2017 First real bitcoin payment using lightning network through BitRefill (https://news.bitcoin.com/first-real-bitcoin-lightning-network-payment-completed-via-bitrefill/) (Bitrefill reached 1BTC in total payments through LN after 5 months (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4164170.0))

08-Dec-2017 Mempool and Fees ATH (>170k transactions in the mempool, >80 MB)


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: davis196 on June 16, 2018, 04:44:43 AM
So is the Mt Gox creditors meeting a historical or a speculative milestione,or both? ;D
Perhaps that Japanese attorney,who was selling the Mt.Gox bitcoins,will continue to sell them and this will spread panic and continue the bearish trend.Anyway,the LN release and BTC ETF approval(if they really happen) make me think that 2019 will be the bitcoin year.  ;D


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: Idrisu on June 16, 2018, 07:34:17 AM
This is nice and good information.  At list you have made well informed post here and I just get some information from this post. Those futuristic historical milestones are what is going to push bitcoin above board and some of us are going to be happy following events.


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: RejectedBanana on June 17, 2018, 05:03:41 AM
i think we need to start a lot more discussions about all the bitcoin bubbles other than the 2013 one so that people can start seeing the bigger picture and stop thinking just because 2013 is the easiest thing to find on the charts there is no other point of reference when it comes to bubbles and bear markets after them.

Agreed, especially since few exchanges span the whole existence. At least Yahoo Finance charts go back to 2011 at least, otherwise it's archival Mt Gox data for the most part.

What's surprising is how regular the bubbles are, or rather, how regular human nature is. Will this be Bitcoin's pattern forever or at what point in the adoption curve might it become more stable?

Thanks for the contributions; added to list.


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: RejectedBanana on June 17, 2018, 05:19:21 AM
So is the Mt Gox creditors meeting a historical or a speculative milestione,or both? ;D
Perhaps that Japanese attorney,who was selling the Mt.Gox bitcoins,will continue to sell them and this will spread panic and continue the bearish trend.Anyway,the LN release and BTC ETF approval(if they really happen) make me think that 2019 will be the bitcoin year.  ;D

I'd like to think Mt Gox is already priced in at this point, and I'm hoping that civil rehabilitation in kind might soothe any future panic. But who's to say creditors won't just cash their Bitcoin in immediately after receiving, too?

Institutional money is probably betting on further Mt Gox panic, and waiting for the whole fiasco to be settled before committing any further speculative funds. At some point, a big player might make a preemptive strike and institutional FOMO might kick even before Mt Gox is settled. By then, maybe the market can absorb the supply without much of a shock. Or not.

There is also a chance that further institutional money coming in is a myth. Possible, but I have a hard time believing that more institutions wouldn't test even a little toe in the crypto waters, shark infested or not. The prize is just too big. Nothing beats greed. And a little toe from a few big players is all it would take to jump start this ship. Retail FOMO would only compound blast off.


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: eminemcookie on June 17, 2018, 12:03:17 PM
i think we need to start a lot more discussions about all the bitcoin bubbles other than the 2013 one so that people can start seeing the bigger picture and stop thinking just because 2013 is the easiest thing to find on the charts there is no other point of reference when it comes to bubbles and bear markets after them.

Agreed, especially since few exchanges span the whole existence. At least Yahoo Finance charts go back to 2011 at least, otherwise it's archival Mt Gox data for the most part.

What's surprising is how regular the bubbles are, or rather, how regular human nature is. Will this be Bitcoin's pattern forever or at what point in the adoption curve might it become more stable?

Thanks for the contributions; added to list.

Agreed, it also probably scares a lot of people in to thinking we'll exactly follow 2013/2014 when that's the only thing that's referenced a lot of the time. I don't think it will be bitcoin's pattern forever. I think we'll just see smaller percentage drops and rises start to be considered as bubbles in the future years as more and more money flows in to the market. a 2% fall in 5-10 years might be wiping off as much of the market as a 50% fall does now.


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: alyssa85 on June 17, 2018, 12:22:55 PM
Nice list. It's interesting that bitcoin is holding above the February correction level.

It suggests that there are a lot of buy orders positioned at around $6000-$6300, which is holding the price up.

It's also interesting to see that the positive comments from the SEC and the CFTC no longer move the price much. That suggests that Americans are no longer the big buyers and the price is controlled by Asia.


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: 1Referee on June 17, 2018, 12:28:14 PM
Superb contribution, this is definitely what we needed here! I like the nostalgia of going back in time.

01-April-2013 Bitcoin Value Surpasses $100--Is This Another Bubble? (https://venturebeat.com/2013/04/01/bitcoin-value-above-100-bubble/)

I am still searching for an article that I read in 2013 before the market hit $100 for the first ever time. It stated that if Bitcoin would ever reach $100 it directly would be its highest ever point it wouldn't be able to reach again. If anyone finds that article, or one similar, please post it here. I would love to re-enjoy the moment of reading it. I never agreed with it before reaching $100 back in the days, and today's price perfectly confirms that.


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: alyssa85 on June 17, 2018, 12:41:11 PM
You might want to add the following article from 2011 to your list of milestones:

https://www.wired.com/2011/11/mf_bitcoin/

It's got all sorts of early history in it: like Gavin Andreeson buying 10,000 bitcoins for $50 and then giving them away 50 btc at a time in the first bitcoin faucet.

And people storing coins on an online wallet called MyBitcoin and losing tens of thousands of coins (now probably worth billions).


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: hatshepsut93 on June 17, 2018, 04:35:42 PM
I'd add November 8, 2017 - the day SegWit2x got officially cancelled. Nowadays no one talks about it, because it's dead, but one year ago it was a big thing and all social platforms were full of discussions and heated arguments. I thin this milestone was very important, because it demonstrated that Bitcoin community trusts developers and their technical reasoning more than some big companies that tried to use populism to get more control over Bitcoin.


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: jjacob on June 17, 2018, 05:33:20 PM
I'd add November 8, 2017 - the day SegWit2x got officially cancelled. Nowadays no one talks about it, because it's dead, but one year ago it was a big thing and all social platforms were full of discussions and heated arguments. I thin this milestone was very important, because it demonstrated that Bitcoin community trusts developers and their technical reasoning more than some big companies that tried to use populism to get more control over Bitcoin.

True. People treated Bitcoin Cash as some sort of dividend and the price rallied because of that. The same thing happened when Segwit2X was announced. People thought they would get free coins.
When Segwit2X got cancelled, it was a kind of reality check.


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: RejectedBanana on June 17, 2018, 05:48:10 PM
Thanks for contributions. I've also added Bitcoin Obituary milestones to the timeline. ;D

And links to some other nice timelines.

Keep em coming. Any future milestones on the horizon to add?


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: figmentofmyass on June 17, 2018, 06:58:46 PM
I'd add November 8, 2017 - the day SegWit2x got officially cancelled. Nowadays no one talks about it, because it's dead, but one year ago it was a big thing and all social platforms were full of discussions and heated arguments. I thin this milestone was very important, because it demonstrated that Bitcoin community trusts developers and their technical reasoning more than some big companies that tried to use populism to get more control over Bitcoin.

agree, and come to think of it, there is no mention of XT or Classic, either. everyone has forgotten about them by now, but these were subjects of very heated debate 2-3 years back. this thread was legendary and really helped shape my philosophies about bitcoin and open source software: Bitcoin XT - Officially #REKT (also goes for BIP101 fraud) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1162684.0)

i'm glad to have been a part of it.... :)


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: alyssa85 on June 17, 2018, 09:59:15 PM


True. People treated Bitcoin Cash as some sort of dividend and the price rallied because of that. The same thing happened when Segwit2X was announced. People thought they would get free coins.
When Segwit2X got cancelled, it was a kind of reality check.

That's a very good point. There was a lot of buying of bitcoin, to get the various hard-fork coins. Now that is all over, people have liquidated.


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: Tankdestroyer on June 17, 2018, 10:58:53 PM
I think you should add this on your list OP since a political figure of a cpuntry seeking legalization for bitcoin as fiancial instrument is a huge step for btc even if it is still not legalized:  
May 9 2018 Ukraine’s Securities Commission Chief Seeks Legalization of Cryptocurrencies as Financial Instruments (https://news.bitcoin.com/ukraines-securities-commission-chief-seeks-legalization-of-cryptocurrencies-as-financial-instruments/)


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: xali on June 20, 2018, 07:27:04 AM
I made a thread detailing the three sudden price changes in the past week. The two Korean hacks and the New York approval of a Cash app to trade bitcoin. These had DIRECT effects on the price, and you didn't even mention them!

What you did list, didn't seem to have much of an effect on the price... Although I do like the future events. The more things to look out for the better. And yes I understand that these events may be subtle in nature but an analysis of the past events to explain the indicators of any nuanced changes would be helpful. Otherwise it just doesn't do it justice; I mean until then, the naysayers will say that those past events had zero effect! Can you prove otherwise?


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: Ceballos on June 20, 2018, 07:29:49 AM
The main reason is bitcoin is getting centralized. Whales are holding too much bitcoin and they play with the price of bitcoin.
Community cannot handle this. Also its similar to get 51% haspower of mining for me.


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: pooya87 on June 22, 2018, 04:21:42 AM
i can't believe i have forgotten about this:
14-Jan-2016 Mike heard basically calls bitcoin dead. "The death spiral begins" (https://blog.plan99.net/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7#.fn9ngkl1p)

we got a 25% discount on bitcoin sales thanks to this FUD and then prepared for the launch to the moon. it sounds silly now that i think about how i bought bitcoin around $350 that day :D

https://i.imgur.com/cjhV3CA.jpg


bitcoin history:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin
http://historyofbitcoin.org/


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: RejectedBanana on June 26, 2018, 07:10:48 PM
Wow, I really didn't expect the Mt Gox civil rehabilitation news to come as soon as it did. For those of us who were around when Gox collapsed, this is monumental news. A shame it's wasted on a bear market.  :o

Thanks for contributions, I've updated some significant early forks, I'm sure I'm missing some.

I made a thread detailing the three sudden price changes in the past week. The two Korean hacks and the New York approval of a Cash app to trade bitcoin. These had DIRECT effects on the price, and you didn't even mention them!

What you did list, didn't seem to have much of an effect on the price... Although I do like the future events. The more things to look out for the better. And yes I understand that these events may be subtle in nature but an analysis of the past events to explain the indicators of any nuanced changes would be helpful. Otherwise it just doesn't do it justice; I mean until then, the naysayers will say that those past events had zero effect! Can you prove otherwise?

Price? Who said anything about price?  ;)

I'm not simply interested in short-term speculative impacts on price, but rather milestones that effect more of the long-term fundamentals of Bitcoin as a emerging technology. The more meaningful milestones don't necessary have an immediate effect on price for several reasons, e.g. they were anticipated long before and already priced, market momentum is too strong, news distraction, etc. Also, exchange hacks are a dime a dozen. Bitcoin was created to be trustless, without the need for centralized exchanges, so fools who keep trusting exchanges can continue being fools, esp in a post-Gox world. Mt Gox definitely was a milestone, however, continuing to influence fundamentals to this day. It highlighted the very essence of trust vs trustless systems.

I cannot wait for decentralized exchanges to be become the dominant form of exchange, this day cannot come soon enough. This will be an enormous technological milestone.

Already, I feel like exchanges are becoming relics of how we used to do things. Exchanges are so heavily manipulated at the moment, I really don't trust exchanges to provide even a meaningful price anymore. That day ended the day futures emerged.


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: RejectedBanana on July 02, 2018, 06:40:58 PM
02-July-2018 Coinbase Custody is Officially Open For Business (https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-custody-is-officially-open-for-business-182c297d65d9)


Title: Re: Speculative and Historical Milestones: BTC Updates
Post by: RejectedBanana on July 11, 2018, 01:56:21 PM
Only 1 month away:

10-Aug-2018 SEC to make decision on latest ETF filing (https://coingape.com/bitcoin-etf-august-10th-revival-of-bitcoin-price/)

Which way will the SEC swing?

Expecting volatility as hype approaches this date.

I invite the more lucid Bitcoiners to add their comments, too:

SEC comments about a proposed bitcoin ETF are 'liiiiiiiiiit' (https://mashable.com/2018/07/10/sec-public-comments-bitcoin-etf/#P.EZyZoWvOqN)