Title: FAIRLAY - The Bitcoin prediction market Post by: fairlay on February 07, 2014, 03:04:30 AM Fairlay - the future of reliable information.
Fairlay seeks to crowd-source information by providing a totally open prediction market. Functioning more like a conditional betting exchange, Fairlay not only allows users to bet but to see public confidence on various bitcoin and altcoin related events, as well as sports, and general news. By using Bitcoin to allow users to demonstrate where their confidence lies regarding specific event, Fairlay can aggregate the wisdom of the majority. There is a huge potential in he possibilities of an open prediction market. Bitcoin could be the technological enabler for that. Fairlay sees a prediction market as a great tool to evaluate risks, hedge risks and aggregate information. Why do we have lots of different numbers for weather forecasts or as election predictions? Fairlay believes that a working prediction market could aggregate all data into the best available forecast. If someone has newer or better information he is able to bet against the current prediction, improving the forecast and get rewarded in the process. About Fairlay Fairlay was founded in 2013 and is a London-based prediction/betting market. It specializes in getting reliable information for everyone. For more information, please visit https://fairlay.com . After a very successfull beta challenge, where Fairlay was able to acquire over 1000 users, tracked over 8000 bets and had over 50 events to bet on, Fairlay just announced betting with real Bitcoins. Title: Re: fairlay - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on February 07, 2014, 04:14:31 PM You find the exact payout here: http://blog.fairlay.com/2014/02/fairlay-beta-promo/
Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on February 09, 2014, 03:57:15 AM Seak peek on fairlay.com
Bet overview: https://i.imgur.com/uOPjm3Y.png Betting form: https://i.imgur.com/FDluJhq.png Title: Re: fairlay - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: leancuisine on February 09, 2014, 05:49:55 AM You find the exact payout here: http://blog.fairlay.com/2014/02/fairlay-beta-promo/ Edit - It's working now. :) Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: djarot on February 09, 2014, 07:44:29 AM Will check it out.
add me Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: halcyon on February 11, 2014, 04:56:35 PM looks great :)
Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on February 11, 2014, 05:12:55 PM A blog post to the latest news around MtGox and how a prediction market could be a game changer:
Information should have a price, but a fair one http://blog.fairlay.com/2014/02/information-should-have-a-price-but-a-fair-one/ (http://blog.fairlay.com/2014/02/information-should-have-a-price-but-a-fair-one/) Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: TheJacob on February 11, 2014, 07:50:37 PM When does this start?
Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on February 16, 2014, 02:44:45 AM Now - we are online now. www.fairlay.com (http://www.fairlay.com)
Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: serje on February 17, 2014, 06:34:14 PM where can I see how much other have?
Balance 705,605.87 Credits feel free to register with my reff link http://www.fairlay.com/?signup=383 Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: joksim299 on February 17, 2014, 06:42:32 PM Great site, I like the design and simplicity.
But adding more bets would be great. Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on February 17, 2014, 06:43:07 PM If you have 705,605.87 Credits you are right now on place 2.
We will have a leaderboard soon where you can look it up. Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: serje on February 17, 2014, 06:44:54 PM If you have 705,605.87 Credits you are right now on place 2. We will have a leaderboard soon where you can look it up. Nice Thanks Germany sent me there! Germany No. 1 at Sochi Olympic... 59950.00 8.34 / 11.98 Yes 59950.00 44 minutes ago Yes wins 705,564.73 Credits Btw can you tell me how much is 200mBTC in BTC? is it 0.2 or 0.02? Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on February 17, 2014, 06:50:15 PM Yes - you were lucky to get odds this good. We were surprised so many people were willing to bet against Germany at such low odds. However, it is a free market.
200mBTC = 0.2 BTC Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: serje on February 17, 2014, 06:55:00 PM One suggestion about your site!
Can you please make something that i can order bets after their closing time? Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on February 17, 2014, 06:58:32 PM Great site, I like the design and simplicity. But adding more bets would be great. Thanks, do you have a suggestion for a bet? You can post that here: http://forum.fairlay.com/ Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on February 17, 2014, 06:59:54 PM One suggestion about your site! Can you please make something that i can order bets after their closing time? We already have it, don't we? The right column is sorted by the closing time. Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: serje on February 17, 2014, 07:04:55 PM One suggestion about your site! Can you please make something that i can order bets after their closing time? We already have it, don't we? The right column is sorted by the closing time. I was focusing on central column as I can open links inside bet if they are on mid! Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: serje on February 17, 2014, 07:29:17 PM I've put a bet of 110108.90 and only 110108.89 is matched .... what that means?
That i will be paid with odds*110108.89 bet if i win or my bet will cancel if it will not be matched until the time ends? Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: leancuisine on February 17, 2014, 07:49:20 PM I've put a bet of 110108.90 and only 110108.89 is matched .... what that means? Unless someone else bets against your bet for over 0.01, then that remaining 0.01 will be returned to you with no deductions I believe.That i will be paid with odds*110108.89 bet if i win or my bet will cancel if it will not be matched until the time ends? The rest of your bet will still continue. Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on February 17, 2014, 09:43:45 PM I've put a bet of 110108.90 and only 110108.89 is matched .... what that means? Unless someone else bets against your bet for over 0.01, then that remaining 0.01 will be returned to you with no deductions I believe.That i will be paid with odds*110108.89 bet if i win or my bet will cancel if it will not be matched until the time ends? The rest of your bet will still continue. thank you for explaining - thats exactly how it works. Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: halcyon on February 19, 2014, 02:10:45 PM what is the estimated date for the start of the real fairlay (i mean after the beta promo, when is it
going to be live and we are able to bet with real bitcoins) ? Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on February 19, 2014, 04:40:37 PM It is hard to say - we really need do not now yet. We really want to be sure that everything is working. The earliest in mid march.
Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: serje on February 19, 2014, 08:42:55 PM OMG! Well I would like to say a big Thank you to the guy that got you the likes on facebook!
I was almost ready to bed all my money on NO to minimize my losings but it seems that he wanted a YES at that bet! And of course I've put all my money on yes at a low rate but that got me an extra 80k credits Although I don't think it's nice what happened I'm one of the lucky winners of what he did If you can please make a leader board as I'm way to curious to see if he won more than I did! Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on February 19, 2014, 08:51:44 PM We wrote a blog article about it:
http://blog.fairlay.com/2014/02/how-a-bet-made-someone-else-buy-us-4000-fake-facebook-likes/ P.S. We are still working on the laederboard, will be done soon, but I can already tell you that you are at least in the top 3. Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: serje on February 19, 2014, 08:53:55 PM We wrote a blog article about it: Damn! If I'm In top 3 how much did those guys one?http://blog.fairlay.com/2014/02/how-a-bet-made-someone-else-buy-us-4000-fake-facebook-likes/ P.S. We are still working on the laederboard, will be done soon, but I can already tell you that you are at least in the top 3. Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: joksim299 on February 20, 2014, 12:04:01 AM http://upload.slike.com/slike/2014/02/1392854551-758-x-253px-ggg.JPG
What is this? I can bet for past events!? Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: halcyon on February 20, 2014, 01:47:37 AM another past event -> you can still bet on if the russian ice hockey team will win gold
at the winter olympics. this is not possible anymore, because they lost 3:1 against finnland and therefore are out already in the quarter-finals ;) Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on February 20, 2014, 06:04:04 PM http://upload.slike.com/slike/2014/02/1392854551-758-x-253px-ggg.JPG What is this? I can bet for past events!? Sorry - and thx - we have corrected it to the real resolution date. Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on February 20, 2014, 06:05:18 PM http://upload.slike.com/slike/2014/02/1392854551-758-x-253px-ggg.JPG What is this? I can bet for past events!? Sorry - and thx - we have corrected it to the real resolution date. That is why we are in Beta. We have not implemented a process yet. If you find someone else how is willing to bet one Russia you basically make free credits. Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on February 20, 2014, 06:14:59 PM The High score is online!!
check your total balance on your profile page and your rank in the highscore here: https://www.fairlay.com/highscore/ Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta $500 in BTC for tester! Post by: serje on February 20, 2014, 07:13:43 PM The High score is online!! Nice! I like it!check your total balance on your profile page and your rank in the highscore here: https://www.fairlay.com/highscore/ But what happened with the person on number 2? he had 1.5mil credits earlier! Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta 600mBTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on February 21, 2014, 05:11:09 PM We added a new category: current affairs: with this bet:
Date for Ukrainian presidential elections announced to take place before end of April https://www.fairlay.com/bet/registered/new/date-for-ukrainian-presidential-elections-announced-to-take-place-before-end-of-april/ Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta 600mBTC for tester! Post by: lemipawa on February 21, 2014, 05:53:29 PM Where is all the result come from ?
Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta 600mBTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on February 21, 2014, 06:03:29 PM We decide - we have to rely on major news article.
Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta 600mBTC for tester! Post by: serje on February 25, 2014, 01:21:05 PM Spread between MtGox and Bitst... 708.00 14.40 / 6.944 Yes 708.00 being resolved To-be-resolved N/A To-be-resolved N/A
when this will be resolved? Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta 600mBTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on February 25, 2014, 06:04:52 PM sorry had a short delay with this bet. We have resolved it and set up some new MtGox bets:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/coins/mtgox/ Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta 600mBTC for tester! Post by: serje on February 28, 2014, 01:26:25 AM set a bet for Aurora!
1 Bitcoin $ 7,223,482,852 $ 579.97 12,454,925 BTC $ 23,909,739 -2.07 % 2 Ripple $ 1,423,536,532 $ 0.014 99,999,997,890 XRP* $ 103,805 -0.11 % 3 Litecoin $ 371,062,681 $ 14.22 26,095,954 LTC $ 3,698,380 -1.51 % 4 Auroracoin $ 184,532,573 $ 17.43 10,588,226 AUR $ 152,955 ? Already passed LTC in price and I bet that in a few hours will pass LTC in Market Cap (maximum 12 hours!) So I think the bet should be against ripple! I truly believe that it will pass Ripple before you end beta on 2nd March! Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta 600mBTC for tester! Post by: serje on February 28, 2014, 09:48:06 PM Quote The rules are simple: Bet as much as you can until March 2 and win as much as you can! So when it will actually end? on 1st March 23.59 or or 2nd March 23.59? Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta 600mBTC for tester! Post by: serje on March 01, 2014, 05:24:47 PM Can we resolve some bets please?
MtGox reopens trading again... Kraken price at 320 or lower... Thanks! Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta 600mBTC for tester! Post by: serje on March 05, 2014, 06:21:30 PM Wheb the real betting will start?
Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta 600mBTC for tester! Post by: BitChrisUK on March 05, 2014, 07:49:16 PM Hi, who are the winners?
Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta 600mBTC for tester! Post by: serje on March 06, 2014, 04:30:07 PM This are the winners!
High scores #. Credits. Prize 1. 3,006,673.67. 200 mBTC 2. 1,838,289.79. 120 mBTC 3. 970,778.38. 80 mBTC 4. 888,379.56. 40 mBTC 5. 593,285.21. 40 mBTC 6. 508,451.46. 20 mBTC 7. 495,458.99. 20 mBTC 8. 475,600.90. 20 mBTC 9. 459,537.46. 20 mBTC 10. 455,594.45. 20 mBTC 11. 421,773.63. 20 mBTC 12. 419,755.29. 10 mBTC 13. 399,999.99. 10 mBTC 14. 347,156.88. 10 mBTC 15. 303,565.74. 10 mBTC 16. 294,732.08. 10 mBTC 17. 260,883.50. 10 mBTC 18. 249,319.03. 10 mBTC 19. 228,129.17. 10 mBTC 20. 220,818.09. 10 mBTC 21. 204,235.01. 10 mBTC Or you want their usernames to hack their accounts? Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta 600mBTC for tester! Post by: Sindelar1938 on March 06, 2014, 04:44:57 PM Looks okay, will check this out sometime
Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta 600mBTC for tester! Post by: serje on March 17, 2014, 05:19:03 AM High scores # Credits Prize 1 8,999,000.00 200 mBTC 2 8,948,000.00 120 mBTC 3 8,897,000.00 80 mBTC 4 8,856,000.00 40 mBTC 5 8,795,000.00 40 mBTC 6 8,744,000.00 20 mBTC 7 8,693,000.00 20 mBTC 8 8,642,000.00 20 mBTC 9 8,601,000.00 20 mBTC 10 8,540,000.00 20 mBTC 11 8,489,000.00 20 mBTC 12 3,011,673.67 10 mBTC 13 1,838,289.79 10 mBTC 14 970,778.38 10 mBTC 15 888,379.56 10 mBTC 16 593,285.21 10 mBTC 17 508,451.46 10 mBTC 18 495,458.99 10 mBTC 19 475,600.90 10 mBTC 20 459,537.46 10 mBTC 21 455,594.45 10 mBTC WTF just happened? from where did those 8 mil credits accounts appeared? When the real game will start? Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta 600mBTC for tester! Post by: sanjoea on March 17, 2014, 06:20:45 AM Is the beta period got over ?
Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta 600mBTC for tester! Post by: halcyon on March 19, 2014, 08:11:04 PM Is the beta period got over ? looks like itīs live now ;) At least there are new bets and the announcement page was removed and replaced with the fairly mainpage. Any official statement regarding the launch? deposits/withdrawals are working? looking really forward to using fairly Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta 600mBTC for tester! Post by: serje on March 19, 2014, 10:36:10 PM Is the beta period got over ? looks like itīs live now ;) At least there are new bets and the announcement page was removed and replaced with the fairly mainpage. Any official statement regarding the launch? deposits/withdrawals are working? looking really forward to using fairly only a few minutes and I got my coins! Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta 600mBTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on March 20, 2014, 04:59:32 PM Just wanted to post a announcement - but found you already noticed it.
Yes!! Fairlay just launched! We are online. All winners from the beta got credited their Bitcoins and they are free to withdrawal them or place a new bet ;) Any suggestions for more bets? Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta 600mBTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on March 20, 2014, 05:13:41 PM And by the way: sorry for the missing communication in this thread in the last weeks. And the short confusion with a changed highscore. We have been very busy working on the real Bitcoin version and in this process we changed the server to a more secure one. We changed now the function of the highscore - now it shows the top winners of the last week.
We still have tons of features on our list - so keep calm for updated! But most important place your first bet!! If you like as little as 1mBTC. Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta 600mBTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on March 21, 2014, 05:18:39 PM I think we try to focus on this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=433086.0
We posted a nice offer there where you can earn Bitcoins by suggesting new bets. Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - suggest new Bets, earn BTC Post by: jambola2 on March 21, 2014, 06:39:55 PM Same website layout , same principle as Bitbet.us (http://Bitbet.us).
I don't see many features that are better than Bitbet.us and does not seem innovative , but just like a clone. But hey , if you are anyways cloning their website , why not copy their bets ? Most of their bet ideas are pretty awesome , like a long-term prediction about value of Bitcoin or if the joke coin called Dogecoin will be still alive by April fools day. Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - suggest new Bets, earn BTC Post by: fairlay on March 21, 2014, 06:54:18 PM at the first glance the websites look similar. But the betting system is SUBSTANTIAL different. I will write a blog post and explain why and why we believe our is more fair for the user.
Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - suggest new Bets, earn BTC Post by: fairlay on May 02, 2014, 12:47:41 AM Hey - we just started a couple of new events: we focus now on predicting the difficulty: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/ Also, we just made it possible to comments on bets and discuss them. Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - suggest new Bets, earn BTC Post by: fairlay on May 06, 2014, 01:04:47 AM We give up to 0.5 Bitcoins for user making a prediction on fairlay:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=433086.msg6564735#msg6564735 Title: Re: FAIRLAY - 0.5 BTC for free - see last post! Post by: fairlay on May 09, 2014, 02:22:25 AM https://i.imgur.com/csRNaeV.png
https://i.imgur.com/e4wVJIi.png https://i.imgur.com/mg79vws.png https://i.imgur.com/kc7CdwC.png] https://i.imgur.com/BvRg68t.png We need your help - what is your favorite version, vote here: http://blog.fairlay.com/2014/05/could-you-help-us-make-a-decision/ Title: Re: FAIRLAY - 0.5 BTC for free - see last post! Post by: Jcw188 on May 09, 2014, 02:30:09 AM Wow I'm interested in your site. I like how you're taking time to make sure the kinks are worked out before just opening and dealing with issues and glitches just to make a quick buck. Do we have an ETA for opening for real? Can you still play with credits right now?
Title: Re: FAIRLAY - 0.5 BTC for free - see last post! Post by: fairlay on May 09, 2014, 02:38:45 AM thank you for the kind words!
However after the beta with about 1000 user we felt confident to start some weeks ago on: fairlay.com - you can predict no with Bitcoin. On 188.165.246.217 you can try out everthing with test-net-coins - read more and how here: http://blog.fairlay.com/2014/04/test-fairlay-with-free-testnet-coins/ However - it is really just for testing - it is not really fun because the we maintain the prediction poorly here. Maybe we will reactivate the credit version again where user can predict every month in a small competition and the winners get some real BTC for fairlay. Could be fun and maybe a good promotion for us. Title: Re: FAIRLAY - 0.5 BTC for free - see last post! Post by: serje on May 14, 2014, 02:54:27 PM thank you for the kind words! However after the beta with about 1000 user we felt confident to start some weeks ago on: fairlay.com - you can predict no with Bitcoin. On 188.165.246.217 you can try out everthing with test-net-coins - read more and how here: http://blog.fairlay.com/2014/04/test-fairlay-with-free-testnet-coins/ However - it is really just for testing - it is not really fun because the we maintain the prediction poorly here. Maybe we will reactivate the credit version again where user can predict every month in a small competition and the winners get some real BTC for fairlay. Could be fun and maybe a good promotion for us. Yes! And also put a wagering condition on the prize, but not something like 30 times ... something like 0.5 of the prize has to be placed in bets before withdrawal .... this way you make sure you will have money in bets and that will attract more people :) my humble opinion! Title: Re: FAIRLAY - 0.5 BTC for free - see last post! Post by: fairlay on May 14, 2014, 05:05:15 PM Yap - very good suggestion - we really need more liquidity - only then the hole project makes sense and is a useful and fun tool for everyone.
We will work on that. Title: Re: FAIRLAY - New Bitcoin Prediction market - 2 weeks Beta 600mBTC for tester! Post by: fairlay on May 19, 2014, 12:00:36 PM We have a lot of new events and some predictions are waiting to get matched.
For example more than 100mBTC are predicted on next difficulty < 10B. To me that looks like a good chance to grab some coins... If you look at bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-10b/ (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-10b/) Find more of the latest bets: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/latest Posted from Bitcointa.lk - #XV3BbGFYKtJ8XXzZ Title: Re: FAIRLAY - The Bitcoin prediction market Post by: fairlay on June 23, 2014, 06:56:44 PM We have a couple of predictions on the auction of the silk road sized coins:
For example will the lowest price of a Block be < $450? https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/price/ Title: Re: FAIRLAY - The Bitcoin prediction market Post by: fairlay on September 06, 2014, 08:29:04 PM We recently have a lot of activity on our regular "next difficulty prediction"
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/ bet against difficulty >31B at odds of 3.5. Note that from the current difficulty data odds should be more like 2. (50%/50%). Some sources that predict the difficulty and their current prediction: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty: 31,109,256,240 https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php: 29,611,949,922 http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php: 29,804,000,000 http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history: 30171493992 Thus all sites (in exception of bitcoinwisdom) predict a difficulty of <31B that would bring you 3.5 times your money back. |