Bitcoin Forum

I have an bad feeling that we will see a very bad drop this time around.

The major players / manipulators seemed to have completely exited the market. Seems they have failed trying to hold that massive $5.6 bidwall that I have spoken about in the past. I have stated that if we break $5 all hell would break loose, and I think that is what is happening right now.

I am not so certain they will spend the money trying to push up the price like they did the last time or at least not anytime soon.

Remember, we almost broke into the $1.99 range until a manipulator decided to put in a 50K bidwall at low $2's. This same person tried to prevent the drop below $5.00 recently by also placing a $50K bidwall at the last minute in the $5.2 range. I do not know if anyone watched it, but I was watching it live as he tried to prevent the drop but his bidwalls were completely sold into. What is odd this manipulator always places 50K bidwalls, I think he wants to signal that it is him, that is why he uses the 50K bidwall amount. But his bidwalls failed.


Since the manipulator(s), after spending a ridiculous amount of money trying to prevent the drop from $5.00, are completely absent from the market now makes me think they do not mind how far it drops at this point. They will easily welcome a drop into the $1's or possibly below. If they did care, why are they not trying to stop the fall right now? Why are they completely absent from the market? Just look at the damn mtgox demand, it is non-existent compared to what it was. And the price is currently what you people would consider cheap.

Not sure how many bitcoins are made new everyday now but lets assume 7,000. 7,000 bitcoins * 4 = 28,000. Do you think the small bitcoin community has $28,000 dollars a day coming into it? Or better yet $840,000 dollars a month of new cash coming into it?

Lets assume $2.00 per bitcoin, 7,000 * $2 = $14,000 a day. Do you think the bitcoin community even has $14,000 dollars new money coming into it every single day to support all these new coins? This would take $420,000 dollars a month!

Now you are probably thinking, well, most miners hold their bitcoins. Well lets assume that 2,000 coins that are mined each day are sold. $2,000 * 2 = $4000 or $120,000 a month. Does the market have coming into it $120,000 a month?

What happens with all these bitcoins that miners horde and do not sell. Lets assume 5,000 bitcoins a day are horded. Well that means after a month 150,000 bitcoins are now being saved and horded. Lets assume 3% of those coins each day want to be sold 150,000 * 3% = 4500 bitcoins a day being sold.

These numbers are just to show an example of why bitcoins even at $2.00 is way over valued. Bitcoin has still proven to be as useless as ever, even with time. Tradehill has shut down its operations. How long before Mt. Gox runs into funding options.

Nothing is new what I wrote here, we should have never went above $2.00 to begin with. Looks like the big market players are also rethinking their strategy here. They can not hold the price up artificially, they have failed every time they have done so and probably lost 10's of thousands of dollars doing it. Seems like they are able to spike the market temporarily, but it stalls and heads right back down, always making a new market Low.

I believe that the market players / manipulators wanted the price to spike to the $30's or even higher again. Like they were able to do the first time around. They failed this time at doing that and were only able to spike it to $7.2 before running into major resistance.

Market fundamentals will always play out in the long run. The manipulators do not have the unlimited funds, that even I think they have.

The only chance bitcoin will have going higher is if the manipulator, who I have been watching his markets movements since the drop from $30, decides it is time to re spike the market. He may do this because he has bought probably between 300,000 and 500,000 of bitcoins and probably still owns most of them. He is really your guys only hope for a turn around. Either that or bitcoin somehow becomes a desirable form of payment from the average joe shmoe. But don't even count on that, especially when the dollar right now is a very good form for a medium of exchange.

I am sorry to say guys that if you hold bitcoins now, expect to lose lots of your value. Expect bitcoin price to head into the $1's.



 

I know many people here are searching for a reason, but fail to see the real reason of why bitcoin price is falling.

I do not think it is for any bad news coming out. There is simply so much good news, every time I read the news on my phone or on yahoo.com there is always an article about bitcoin. Mostly positive, sometimes negative. Even before the Russia, India, Mt Gox issues, the price was not very stable.

The price was able to creep as high as $1000 because most people are hoarding bitcoins and not selling them. They simply think why sell them now when we will go much higher, and I agree with that. However, as soon as the price was sluggish for weeks not able to go as high as people expected or break $1000, there was a small increase in people wanting to cash out.  This small increase was enough to push the price down slowly and that is what we have been seeing over the last weeks.

Now what we have is more people realizing that the $10,000 a bitcoin price may just not happen. More people will want to cash out. I am not saying a lot of people will want to cash out but just enough to start pushing the price lower.

There are very few people selling, but there are also very few people buying. Price is just not stable at $900, or $800 and is now down to $700. I believe the buyers will not be there to push even keep it at $700 so I believe it will continue to fall.

What I also think is happening is as the price keeps dropping, there will be more people wanting to cash out before it drops even further. It is obvious that we are not going to $10,000 a coin and it may be a possibility now that the value may fall below $500. Many people have waited long enough for a price rise but as reality sets in some will want to use the money and cash out.

I also think Mt Gox. was an issue in why some people were not selling as they thought why should I sell at $800 on my local exchange when Mt Gox. Price is $950.

To sum everything up here, what I am saying is that the bitcoin price is now returning to a healthy price. A price that is not artificially high because people are hoarding their bitcoins, which is basically making bitcoin into a house of cards. A price where growth will be slow over the years and at more reasonable levels, say 10% a year. A price which is not ridiculously high based on ridiculous adoption predictions/estimates.

I think the price fall will continue for many more months and slowly decline. There are just so many bitcoins out there that people are sitting on and so few buyers who are going to setup an account on an exchange and go through the hurdles to buy them.

This reminds me of all your other speculations...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=64135.msg752040#msg752040

Lol @ OP thread from 2012,

Now I'm sure it gets 10,000, thanks OP

Well then what I wrote makes a lot of sense. Market situation was a lot different two years ago and I was bearish from $20's to $2.00, you would be also.

Try and counter what I wrote instead of bringing up irrelevant posts.

 Let me know how many bitcoins you buy at the current price so that I can have a laugh at you down the road.

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Well then what I wrote makes a lot of sense. Market situation was a lot different two years ago and I was bearish from $20's to $2.00, you would be also.

Try and counter what I wrote instead of bringing up irrelevant posts.

 Let me know how many bitcoins you buy at the current price so that I can have a laugh at you down the road.