Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: dsp on October 01, 2011, 11:01:16 AM



Title: Kodak The Wheels Come off
Post by: dsp on October 01, 2011, 11:01:16 AM
So first digital camera was released in crude form some time around 1994. Here we are about 17 years later and Kodak has fell apart. In 1994 had you told them their business is done for they may have laughed in your face and showed you a copy of their current earnings.

If you take a look at western union and the fact that the fist P2P currency was released in 2009 then then I think by 2026 they will fold. I think if anything bitcoins are closest to wiretransfers of a sort.

By this point about 19,000,000 Bitcoins will exist and based on westernunion's current valuation compared to bitcoin at that point would make each bitcoin worth about $495 each. This would be a growth rate of about $30 per year not considering inflation of USD.

Western Union also seems to be near a low like all stocks over the last few months. Another thing to consider is a stock valuation has all of its inefficiencies baked in so what might they be worth if they had no employees rent or any other costs.



Title: Re: Kodak The Wheels Come off
Post by: payb.tc on October 01, 2011, 11:28:13 AM
it depends, kodak had the choice to adapt/evolve and become the 'canon' of today's digital photography, but they didn't.

similarly WU could adapt/evolve and become the tradehill / mtgox (without the goxings!) of 2026.

just depends on whether they embrace change or not.


Title: Re: Kodak The Wheels Come off
Post by: jamesg on October 01, 2011, 11:29:16 AM
So first digital camera was released in crude form some time around 1994. Here we are about 17 years later and Kodak has fell apart. In 1994 had you told them their business is done for they may have laughed in your face and showed you a copy of their current earnings.

If you take a look at western union and the fact that the fist P2P currency was released in 2009 then then I think by 2026 they will fold. I think if anything bitcoins are closest to wiretransfers of a sort.

By this point about 19,000,000 Bitcoins will exist and based on westernunion's current valuation compared to bitcoin at that point would make each bitcoin worth about $495 each. This would be a growth rate of about $30 per year not considering inflation of USD.

Western Union also seems to be near a low like all stocks over the last few months. Another thing to consider is a stock valuation has all of its inefficiencies baked in so what might they be worth if they had no employees rent or any other costs.



Interesting insight. As you suggest, there is definitely a long road ahead with making it simpler to use bitcoin, getting more merchants on board, polishing the products and services around bitcoin and everything else I haven't thought of.


Title: Re: Kodak The Wheels Come off
Post by: dsp on October 01, 2011, 12:25:15 PM
it depends, kodak had the choice to adapt/evolve and become the 'canon' of today's digital photography, but they didn't.

similarly WU could adapt/evolve and become the tradehill / mtgox (without the goxings!) of 2026.

just depends on whether they embrace change or not.


Its hard to embrace a technology that tries to thrash your margins and replace you. They may evolve, but it is a bit of the gun to the head situation.


Title: Re: Kodak The Wheels Come off
Post by: dsp on October 01, 2011, 12:40:13 PM
Another thought on this topic is I don't think anyone was particularly un-happy about Kodak's prices and products. I never heard to many people go off about film prices or even paying for the prints. It was a great product and service for the price. Digital cameras are just a little more convenient especially for sharing, but this little edge proved to be a tsunami over time.

So Bit coins just have to be a little bit more convenient for paying. One thing that may drive adoption a little faster is if bitcoins are proven stable over the next few years, is that some people are outright pissed off about finical institutions, and activly seeking a way to avoid all sorts of pitfalls with our current system. Be it inflation or fees or some jackass knowing how much you blow on mcdonalds each month.

If you could explain to everyone bitcoins with out all the exceptions. Every positive statement for bitcoin has to end with a but...... you could get royally fucked and lose everything.

Its just not a solid sales pitch.


Title: Re: Kodak The Wheels Come off
Post by: BombaUcigasa on October 01, 2011, 12:52:19 PM
You are referring to a service, a digital good and a product in the same frame, while not even products are behaving the same parameters you explained. In general you appear to be correct, but again we can never know the future...

http://i.imgur.com/44cWU.jpg


Title: Re: Kodak The Wheels Come off
Post by: dsp on October 01, 2011, 01:41:28 PM
You are referring to a service, a digital good and a product in the same frame, while not even products are behaving the same parameters you explained. In general you appear to be correct, but again we can never know the future...


Agreed, I'm not trying to present this as fact. I just look at comparisons of things that have some things in common, others have compared BTC to USD, Gold, PayPal. It is just fun to play with the what if. I think enough reference points kinda build a picture around the idea. Enough of these relations should allow us to have some idea of the constraints and possible logical conclusions. Some of my ideas on bitcoin are related to induction of what could happen and also trying to use deductions. While none of this is really based in reality, it not entirely out of the question either.


Title: Re: Kodak The Wheels Come off
Post by: Cluster2k on October 01, 2011, 05:44:06 PM
Not every traditional film company suffered with the growing popularity of digital cameras.  Fuji did pretty well to reinvent itself and sell digital cameras.  The early Kodak digital cameras were not even made by Kodak: they were outsourced Chinon designs.