Bitcoin Forum

https://preview.ibb.co/hdqtw8/ntc.png (https://ibb.co/bEkRG8)
As you can notice in the image recent rise is very similar to last intermediate rise that started on 14 april.
so we can expect it will end similar to it.

Agreed as long as we are on a down trend we don't expect this rally going on although the most probable thing to happen right now is this price rally will have a Lower High which would be lower than 9,900$ compared to the last attempt to break the 10,000$ level. My recommendation is or people who have built some based at the bottom is to patiently ride the price rally before considering in taking some profits and for people who are thinking of jumping and joining the train I don't think it is the right time as your best opportunity was before the rally even started.

if by "end similar" you mean go to $9k+ then fall down to $5700 then no I disagree. it won't end similar. this time even if we end up seeing another drop the bottom of the drop should technically raise up a lot because each time a trend like this shapes up the boundaries will come higher, they won't be repeated.

besides we may not see another "big drop" this time anyways....

I'm quite sure that the increase we started recently will last till next month, and probably stagnates just before the ETF decision.

If the SEC comes up with good news, we might see a mild pump, but don't expect any fireworks because the ETF market won't go live this year.

If the SEC comes up with bad news, we can be nearly sure that the price will tank back and people will instantly turn into ultra bears, because that's how this market works.

My plan is this;

Short Bitcoin one day before 'deadline'.

Positive news = liquidate my position directly with a small loss and go long.

Negative news = profit for me.

The risk in my case is just a few % at most, and for that reason perfectly doable. The profit potential is far greater.

it may end far below the last bottom, this trends top maybe lower than previous so bottom maybe lower than previous, 4k-5k prices an come this time in 2 months.
If you look primary trend it is more obvious.

I was surprised by the rapid increase. I thought we would get $ 8000 before ETF decision after that date either rise to a new stability point of $ 10,000 or a drop to $ 6000 "I do not expect to go back below 5500$ bottom but at 6000 range".
I do not want to be optimistic and say that this rise will go on a lot but do not forget a lot of positive news"G20 decision" in recent days could make the minimum barrier at 8000 dollars and settle at $ 1000 with an upside of $ 12,000.

It's not just gonna be a carbon copy of the last mini bull run. It spent a lot more time at the bottom of the market this time. Every time this year it's gone down to the bottom of the market (~6000s) it has stayed there longer and longer, meaning it went from just bouncing off of it to building momentum off of it. I would say this last time was probably the last time we scraped the bottom of the market. If ETF isn't approved I'm sure it'll probably drop for a bit but I wouldn't expect $6000 or below. ETF after all isn't the only bullish news. If ETF is approved it'll probably spike through $10k, and nobody in their right mind would be a bear after an ETF approval.

I for one will be trading upwards as we head towards an ETF decision, and I'll have a position built up in case ETF is approved, but also probably sell some before the decision in case of a rejection and some money on the side in case of a rejection, try to buy back in low as a rejection would cause a short term spike down, but I think overall regardless of the decision we're in bull market territory now.

this is like an odd thing about price movements this year when prices are falling so drastically and slowly rising but on the downside not too far away, is this the price manipulation of big par investors in different countries for their own benefit and profit, because if this is the case this happens to be very detrimental to beginner traders and beginner investors or with very little capital, we can see from the price increase which is relatively very fast, this can be said to be reasonable but still this is unnatural.

Apparently! The fact remains that we are still in a bearish zone and until we are able to surpass $10k before we can at least be able to have some little level of optimism. It sure looks a lot similar and sure looks like the market want to go test that zone I mentioned above again. The question now is are we going to be able to break this zone and form a higher high, or are we going to bounce back or even more, bounce back from the $8500 resistance? I guess time will tell how things will unfold.

A lot of profit taking is now happening especially when it has reached the 8,300$ level and when this still goes on it might go down back again below 8,000$ which I think would be favorable for us traders. Hoping for a more steep price increase might not be actually good for us as it will definitely confirm that this is just price manipulation, just look at the volume all the candles are in favor of the sellers which clearly shows that people are selling only in the high points, after that volume still remains the same.

The fundamentals that caused the first one to rise to that  level is different from what is happening now and I don't think it will end the same way as the first despite the trend look similar.

With these kind of movements then as a short trader we can really take advantage of it which we cant really make profits if we do enter or bought on cheaper prices back on last weeks. Sometimes checking out on technicals can really give us doubts that we might repeating the same movement due to similar patterns but I would say that this wont really be accurate anytime. We might see similarities but it isn't sure if it would repeat the same thing again.

Just go back last year when the twins applied of a BTC ETC, the price did fly as well and If my memory serves me right, we breached $2K for the first time, however, when the application was denied by SEC the price free fall below $1K again and if not for Japan entering the picture in April, we should have witnessed a continued bearish trend.

So if we get a denial again next month, I'm sure that it will have a dramatic impact similar to that as well and we might see another bottom. But for now the price could go hit $9K or even $10K as we go near the Aug decision.

I think everything will depend on the news that we are waiting for. But I think it is very unlikely that we will continue to have the series of bad news that we have had in recent months. And if I am not mistaken, unlike the last high, post ATH, this finally started in the Asian market and was followed by the European. In recent months the American market was pulling up and the Asian market was selling. Let's see how the Asian market opens, but if it keeps buying, we can move straight to the 10k mark in a week.

I thinkt the price will stagnate around the 9k mark until the ETF news next month. Although, if there's enough momentum and the uptrend continues before that event, then there's a chance that we might go past the 9k mark and even test the 10k levels (never underestimate bullish sentiment). We could still go down if the ETF gets delayed/denied and hype dies down, though I don't think we'll go below 5700, I think we have a new floor around 6k-7k.

That's right we must stay observant and just stay on the track, don't easily dump your coins because it might spike more in the next few hours. Skyrocket might happen at anytime, and breaking $10k is possible to be meet until the end of July. The value will probably play and fluctuate at around $9k to $10k this months. Keep your eyes on your monitor and stay calm, we will see the future to be greener and success can be our legacy.

I think all rises are looking similar and than it will look similar when going down. It will go up and go back down. This is not a weird surprise, it is always the same. Do you think btc will go up to 500k levels without ever dropping? No. It will go up a bit than go down a bit but in the end it will always break its ATH levels in the long term and will only go down a bit. It will go up to 100k one day (maybe will take a decade who knows) and it will go back down to 60k and everyone will go "bitcoin is dead" "bitcoin will go down".

Yea, you can notice a lot of patterns in crypto trading right now. Everything goes in cycles, from the start, we have similar bear markets, with nearly the same percentage falls and then recovery cycles with similar rises

Be careful about being whipsawed on the decision day. Take a look at the bitcoinmarkets thread for the last time there was an SEC decision. The market made wild swings, taking out everyone's stops on the upside and downside - and it was deliberate. Also, many exchanges were unable to cope with the volume and went down at crucial points.

Yes, there is definitely some risk to it (probably more than usual), but one I'm willing to take. I know what risks I'm exposing myself to and I accept to swallow everything that comes out of it.

Most exchanges have upgraded their systems and trading engines after everything that happened last year, so I hope that we'll at least be able to count on some more platform reliability.

Not really, the low will be higher this time, as the ETF hype is pushing the price up.

And the bull-trap in April was very obvious. This time, not so much. It could be a bull-trap, but most certainly its a recovery. I said earlier a recovery would be possible in August or October.

Also, we cant compare it to 2013-2015, as the situation now is very different. Bitcoin is infiltrating the banking system, and this could force banks to buy it, which would increase the price.

That trend up and down creating loop was just similar to last one , idont say it is finished but obvious it was too similar. This loop is smaller then previous one, i was expecting it to long more but thats ok. because it didint end it can go below previous year record. Tops are below previous and bottoms are below previous and main trend is down so  i expect 4-5k as a new bottom record.it will turn from that bottom and rise a little but dont think so to pass above 8k, it may reach 7k and come back.Also expecting less volatilty for the rest of this year.

unless SEC rejects ETF, or some whale(s) decide they want to push the price down out of nowhere, there is no reason for the price to go lower than this and it won't.
highs and lows are pretty much the same as before. in fact if anything the lows have been increasing since the last couple of times that price tested $6k support we fell below it and went as low as $5700 but this time the low has been $6100 until now.

yes, hopefully ... this continues and continues to rise, being a good start, because everyone has been waiting for this increase which initially decreased
and made everyone tense, panic will decrease and fear of losing more money.

I think we've found the bottom, for now at least. It shouldn't be going much lower than 6000 by the way it's behaving around those levels now. It will need a better reason to drop down further because it's not moving very fast anymore.

The support around the 6000 level could help it to find a direction for upwards movement. There's no more reason for ETF news to smash it around at this time, and hopefully we can get some positive momentum upwards. I think that the pattern from last rise might be similar but it can't follow it exactly