Bitcoin Forum

At the time of this poll's creation, Mt Gox has not allowed bitcoin withdrawals for a few weeks now. The latest update (their "update to an update") has shaken the already weakened public perception of Mt Gox, with many observers predicting that Gox is insolvent. The price on Gox is $0.100 per mBTC, as compared to about $0.550 everywhere else.

There is panic in the streets. Dogs and cats, living together. Mass hysteria!

Question: what is Mark K's state of mind these days? Choose the ONE SCENARIO you think is the most likely:

1. confident under stress
Mt Gox has problems but they're overestimated by the public. Mark genuinely appreciated the implications of transaction malleability sooner than anyone else and someday he'll get credit for that. The reason that Mt Gox is slower than Bitstamp and all the other exchanges to fix the mess surrounding transaction malleability is a result of the fact that Gox code was less than professional from the start, but that was to be expected back in the old days. Unfortunately, the only way to fix the sloppy code is to start over from scratch and we the public don't realize how difficult that would be. IOW, the legacy of sloppy code is an albatross to Mt Gox that does not apply to newer exchanges and wallets, and even the best and brightest would have a hard time shaking that albatross. He's gonna pull through this crisis just like Mt Gox always has in the past. Good news: Gox is solvent, they just need time. To play him in the inevitable move, Gary Cooper will be cloned. (And fattened up, of course.)

2. conniving
Mark is actually 10 times smarter than anyone suspects. He made a ton through legitimate means, and now he is making 5 times more by exploiting arbitrage opportunity. Indeed, the present crisis was meticulously planned long ago and has been expertly executed. He is looking forward to the day his bitcoin stash will exceed Satoshi's at which time he will disappear (and yes he will embezzle every last bitcoin, dollar, euro, etc in Gox' possession) and prepare to take over the world fo' real, a la Pinky and the Brain. When the Technological Singularity hits, his will be the first conscious mind to be copied over into AI. Emile Hirsch will portray him in the movie.

3. oblivious (aka "incompetent" aka "nom nom")
He really has no idea how bad this all looks. His days are spent holed up by himself drinking frappacino and tinkering with Mt Gox code in between wacking off 5 times a day. To him, we're still living in 2011 and it's still amateur hour. He's not taking advantage of the arbitrage opportunities available to him because he'd rather sleep late. The bad PR and customer service is because, why bother? Good news is that Gox has enough fiat and bitcoin to cover all depositors. Actor to portray him in the movie: Jonah Hill.

4. panicky
In this scenario, Mt Gox is in a deep financial hole due to all the problems we know (e.g. FinCEN) and even some that we don't, most of which were not his fault. Like, maybe, the Russian Mafia is holding someone hostage and forcing him to do shit like manipulate the market so they can take advantage of it. It's going to end badly for everyone (except the mafia) and we'll all sympathize with him when the truth comes out. Despite the fact that we'll never recover our bitcoins. Philip Seymour Hoffman would have portrayed him in the movie if he were still around to do so. (RIP!)

my vote for 4

Add option for "Cappuccino".

can we add incompetent?

you forgot one:

nom, nom

I think that would fall under option 3, oblivious.

also option 3. Jonah Hill, dude.

That too I think would be option 3 ...

Edit: Option #3   :D

We might need more options:
Is "I'm so hungry" a state of mind?

for Mark it is; both physically and mentally.

It's not a time of crisis as far as he's concerned. He already got rich off Bitcoin and doesn't care what happens from now on.

I think the truth lies between options 2 and 3. He knows what is happening and frankly doesn't give a damn, let it roll while he jumps out with his golden parachute. Post up some bs address to a hotel so no one can picket or hurt him? I think this shows he isn't totally oblivious. I don't think he started with bad intentions, but ineptitude got him here.
Actor to play him: Mathew Broderick

I think he's readying his moon base.

he's feeling like he needs more coffee

He is preparing exit followed by plastic surgery.

I vote "Under Duress" from FinCEN. Nobody  that can build a company like MtGox is this dumb.

It surprised me that the owner of this brilliant poll goes by the incognito name of BtcTrader47. There are too much personality in the authoring to go with that simple a nickname. Get youserlf a better nickname so we can remember and follow you!

Drinking frappucino, playing wow on his fit ball, and having no idea of what is going on or that there is this big fuss in the community.  Somewhere in a mess on his desk is a sticky note that says 'fix that mtgox thing'.

Totally unsubstantiated speculation: he's about to be indicted and did the right thing by resigning ahead of time.

Made me cry a little inside because its way to easy to imagine.

This article on newsBTC.com (which I find lives up to its name as a good source of bitcoin news, like a succinct version of coindesk) sheds some light on Mark K's frame of mind:
http://newsbtc.com/2014/02/25/alleged-chat-transcript-mt-gox-ceo-discusses-exchanges-current-issues/
It is based on this online discussion between Mark and some other guy:
http://www.wickedfire.com/shooting-shit/179038-my-conversation-mark-karpeles-mtgox-2.html#post2164682

Take home message: I get the sense that Mark is in some sort of state of depression which renders him cognitively incapable of running his business. I would not rule out the possibility that the 700K bitcoin are "inaccessible" because he just can't remember where he stashed his paper backups.

Panicky may be the best answer to the poll. But he may be so beaten down that he doesn't even have the energy to panic. If I were starting the poll now, I might add an option: stuporous or catatonic