Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: gollum on February 24, 2014, 01:49:56 AM



Title: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: gollum on February 24, 2014, 01:49:56 AM
I am confident that the price of BTCUSD will trade around 100-150 the coming months at ALL exchanges, not only MtGox.
Sell your coins at BTC-e and other exchanges while greater fools are paying huge premiums to you.

Current situation
http://i.imgur.com/pvsmP6B.png?1

Original analysis from 6th of Feb 2014
Seems like MtGox is the "Lehman Brothers" of the bitcoin world.
My analysis points out that BTC/USD might crash down to $100

http://i.imgur.com/t09PCEr.png

What software is this? care to share?


Here you are:
https://www.tradingview.com/e/?symbol=MTGOX%3ABTCUSD#


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: Skinnkavaj on February 24, 2014, 01:59:53 AM
No one cares about Mtgox BTC/USD anymore.
This should be posted in speculation as well.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: gollum on February 24, 2014, 02:01:06 AM
No one cares about Mtgox BTC/USD anymore.
This should be posted in speculation as well.
My prediction is that all exchanges will trade at 100, not only MtGox


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: Cyberdyne on February 24, 2014, 02:01:14 AM
Okay thanks.

I'm confident that in 2024, it won't really matter much either way.

*continues to buy*


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: noviapriani on February 24, 2014, 02:05:51 AM
Not gonna happen on all exchanges. I'm still buying now. Very big chance that it will go big than go below 100.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: bananas on February 24, 2014, 02:08:02 AM
Explain your prediction? MtGox related data does not explain anything 'cause they are in another dimension.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: gollum on February 24, 2014, 02:11:19 AM
Explain your prediction? MtGox related data does not explain anything 'cause they are in another dimension.
MtGox volume and assets (claimed by clients) is still a very huge part of all bitcoin exchanges.
We cant dismiss the MtGox price as an isolated price, it will affect other exchanges as well since the price in sharp negative trend on all exchanges.

Imagine early adaptors rushing for the exit, Im not even thinking about Satoshi who owns more than 1 million coins, but early miners and guys like the stupid fat hobbit Karpeles. Even if they just sell 20% of their holdings it will push down the price towards 80-100 and keep it there for months.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: Blinken on February 24, 2014, 02:11:52 AM
Moderator !!! Where's the moderator when you need him?

Who let this clown in? Seriously, we need better bouncers.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: dopecoindude on February 24, 2014, 02:13:20 AM
Moderator !!! Where's the moderator when you need him?

Who let this clown in? Seriously, we need better bouncers.


Better mod's is sooo true. How did this guy sneak in ?


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: gollum on February 24, 2014, 02:14:53 AM
Moderator !!! Where's the moderator when you need him?

Who let this clown in? Seriously, we need better bouncers.


Better mod's is sooo true. How did this guy sneak in ?
Don't blame me the analyst for the crash, I'm just giving you the truth. But ignore it, make your own bullish analysis instead.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: Littleshop on February 24, 2014, 02:22:45 AM
I am confident that the price of BTCUSD will trade around 100-150 the coming months at ALL exchanges, not only MtGox.
Sell your coins at BTC-e and other exchanges while greater fools are paying huge premiums to you.

Current situation
http://i.imgur.com/pvsmP6B.png?1

Original analysis from 6th of Feb 2014
Seems like MtGox is the "Lehman Brothers" of the bitcoin world.
My analysis points out that BTC/USD might crash down to $100

http://i.imgur.com/t09PCEr.png

What software is this? care to share?


Here you are:
https://www.tradingview.com/e/?symbol=MTGOX%3ABTCUSD#

Looking at your charts I see a huge price increase coming as we bounce off the lower line. 


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: gollum on February 24, 2014, 02:28:07 AM
Looking at your charts I see a huge price increase coming as we bounce off the lower line.  
It's possible, but let's see where bitcoin stabilizes first. We don't know what patterns may form yet after it has bottomed.
The only thing that is certain right now is that 100 should be okey price for buy.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: pleiotropik on February 24, 2014, 02:38:22 AM
I always keep Fiat in the garage in case the BTC takes a dump.

That said, the mtgox dump to $100 occurred inside a black box.
 Who, in his right mind would prefer to keep fiat instead of BTCinside the gox in the remote chance that someday he would  be able to redeem either one.  This, specially in light of the fact that mtgox was always better at redeeming btc than than fiat.  the moment mtgox closed the only door of escape for depositors the price went from mark to market to mark to fantasy, then from mark to fantasy to mark to unicorns and onwards to Mark to Karpeles: the Leprechaun that stole the btc pot at the end of the unicorn's rainbow fart. the "price" at gox is meaningful only in the sense that it satisfies some frappuccino fantasy of an overweight undertalented autistic nerd.

back to the beginning: have plenty of wallpaper (usd) to exchange for btc at $500; $400; $300; $200; and $100... why? coz as mother goose says: never put all eggies in a single basket.

And: Gollum's charts are perfectly valid from a technical standpoint.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: pleiotropik on February 24, 2014, 02:42:24 AM
sorry.... adding to the above... except Gollum makes one weird statement: "Prices will stabilize at $100"  WTF??? when have prices stabilized in any commodity? calling "Preciouuuusssssssssssssss..." (???)  you have been tainted by the floating all seeing eye p'rhaps?


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: Ibian on February 24, 2014, 02:49:44 AM
Bet ya on it. 2 coins. Set your time limit and precise terms.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: gollum on February 24, 2014, 02:50:02 AM
sorry.... adding to the above... except Gollum makes one weird statement: "Prices will stabilize at $100"  WTF??? when have prices stabilized in any commodity? calling "Preciouuuusssssssssssssss..." (???)  you have been tainted by the floating all seeing eye p'rhaps?
Look at the chart again, the price stabilized after the crashes each year: several months of lower and lower volatility.
When volatility->0 the probability->100% for a breakout.
But if the breakout will be to the upside or downside this time is to early to speculate about.
It could go from 100 to 10$ or from 100 to 2000-5000


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: pleiotropik on February 24, 2014, 02:58:15 AM

It could go from 100 to 10$ or from 100 to 2000-5000

Thanks, now your statement has technical meaning...  As the dark clouds of monetary central bank disorder gather to pound the euro and the Yuan/yen into pulp from which the FED will QE to infinity, my wager remains in favor of the deflationary nature of BTC. Since you are hedging both ways (2k>  or $100<) i'm pretty certain you can write a warrant to reflect your position in favor of extreme volatility. I rather sit on my hands and keep my btc in cold storage and move as much fiat into commodities as possible.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: pungopete468 on February 24, 2014, 03:04:14 AM
Unless some serious flaw is discovered that requires a hard fork I wouldn't expect to see prices fall that low for any moderate period of time; no more than a few hours to a day at the most...

It would practically be considered "charitable selling" because that's giving Bitcoin away at this stage of the game.

Everybody who's involved in Bitcoin has a price. That number where, should we reach it, they will throw everything they have at buying as many as possible. The difference between now and when the price was in the $100's is the size of the community and the strength we've gained from the storms we've weathered.

Even the Bears who sold everything last week have a number where they put it all back on the line... I highly doubt that number is below the lower trend line of your chart; likely much higher to mitigate the risk of being pinched...


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: bananas on February 24, 2014, 03:05:54 AM
OP makes sense. I also believe it will go down to around USD$100 but i did not make any deep analysis, i believe so just 'cause there was absolutely no legit explanation for the rise past 100. And 100 was a stable value for several months.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: bananas on February 24, 2014, 03:14:57 AM
Explain your prediction? MtGox related data does not explain anything 'cause they are in another dimension.
MtGox volume and assets (claimed by clients) is still a very huge part of all bitcoin exchanges.
We cant dismiss the MtGox price as an isolated price, it will affect other exchanges as well since the price in sharp negative trend on all exchanges.

Imagine early adaptors rushing for the exit, Im not even thinking about Satoshi who owns more than 1 million coins, but early miners and guys like the stupid fat hobbit Karpeles. Even if they just sell 20% of their holdings it will push down the price towards 80-100 and keep it there for months.

Forgive-me, i stopped reading once i saw mtgox written in it, but i see those graphs are before the mess which is completely valid and reflects the market.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: DaFockBro on February 24, 2014, 03:18:05 AM
OP makes sense. I also believe it will go down to around USD$100 but i did not make any deep analysis, i believe so just 'cause there was absolutely no legit explanation for the rise past 100. And 100 was a stable value for several months.

A $7.2 billion market cap is still peanuts, there's really nowhere for the price to go but up in the medium-long term.

When the price was $100, the $1.2 billion market cap for revolutionary technology was a joke.  We'll never see an average of $100 per coin ever again.

OP is spreading FUD to try to push the price lower and buy up some cheap coins.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: DanielVG on February 24, 2014, 03:22:59 AM
A lot of people would welcome a crash to 100$ ;D


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: pleiotropik on February 24, 2014, 03:26:06 AM
A lot of people would welcome a crash to 100$ ;D

Word... and maybe i'll catch some unicorns the same day  8)


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: DaFockBro on February 24, 2014, 03:37:00 AM
A lot of people would welcome a crash to 100$ ;D

Word... and maybe i'll catch some unicorns the same day  8)

And maybe the Pope will convert to Judaism, and Mark Karpeles will stop drinking coffee milkshakes for breakfast...you never know.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: bananas on February 24, 2014, 04:40:42 PM
There is always lots of defensive people when someone talks about price drops, accusations of FUD etc. Speculation on rises never get any bad comments. I know some people bought at high and so have such reaction but a big price drop is benefical to everyone at this stage, more people can join, at the current values it is very risky or even financially prohibitive for most to join. Bitcoin is a small community that needs to grow.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: bananas on February 24, 2014, 04:45:58 PM
OP makes sense. I also believe it will go down to around USD$100 but i did not make any deep analysis, i believe so just 'cause there was absolutely no legit explanation for the rise past 100. And 100 was a stable value for several months.

A $7.2 billion market cap is still peanuts, there's really nowhere for the price to go but up in the medium-long term.

When the price was $100, the $1.2 billion market cap for revolutionary technology was a joke.  We'll never see an average of $100 per coin ever again.

OP is spreading FUD to try to push the price lower and buy up some cheap coins.

1.2 or 7.2 coming from about the same bank accounts does not make any difference.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: Tirapon on February 24, 2014, 05:35:36 PM
I always keep Fiat in the garage in case the BTC takes a dump.

That said, the mtgox dump to $100 occurred inside a black box.
 Who, in his right mind would prefer to keep fiat instead of BTCinside the gox in the remote chance that someday he would  be able to redeem either one.  This, specially in light of the fact that mtgox was always better at redeeming btc than than fiat.  the moment mtgox closed the only door of escape for depositors the price went from mark to market to mark to fantasy, then from mark to fantasy to mark to unicorns and onwards to Mark to Karpeles: the Leprechaun that stole the btc pot at the end of the unicorn's rainbow fart. the "price" at gox is meaningful only in the sense that it satisfies some frappuccino fantasy of an overweight undertalented autistic nerd.

back to the beginning: have plenty of wallpaper (usd) to exchange for btc at $500; $400; $300; $200; and $100... why? coz as mother goose says: never put all eggies in a single basket.

And: Gollum's charts are perfectly valid from a technical standpoint.

Points should be awarded for this post: you definitely get some points.

I would love to see $100 BTC on stamp, and I have my fiat ready. Its just not gonna happen though...

EDIT: Perhaps a little harsh towards Mark Karpeles though, I don't know him but I hear he's a good guy. Still, pretty f*cking funny.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: sbryant31 on February 24, 2014, 05:42:03 PM
Can you give one fundamental reason why btc should crash?s


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: ArpFlush on February 24, 2014, 06:13:51 PM
Can you give one fundamental reason why btc should crash?s
Because everybody buys Flappycoin now  ;D


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: cosmofly on February 24, 2014, 07:35:26 PM
I agree, its over


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: gollum on February 25, 2014, 02:34:01 AM
Can you give one fundamental reason why btc should crash?s
I work with technical analysis just like professional traders, not fundamental analysis.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: bananas on February 25, 2014, 03:09:03 AM
About -20% today, currently at $481. It is happening. My fiat is ready!


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: bananas on February 25, 2014, 03:16:08 AM
Going down non stop! $100 is coming soon.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: infofront on February 25, 2014, 03:19:52 AM
At this point, the bulls are just the suckers who bought in way too high.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: bananas on February 25, 2014, 03:29:32 AM
At this point, the bulls are just the suckers who bought in way too high.

Been watching live ticker for Bitstamp all day long, sell orders are often coming in high amounts,  bids in very small amounts. The whale who dropped a sell order of thousands BTC yesterday at $579 or so, did not sell.


Title: Re: BTC crashed as predicted, will crash again and stay at 100
Post by: Tirapon on February 25, 2014, 03:42:27 AM
At this point, the bulls are just the suckers who bought in way too high.

I am bullish for 2014.

I bought at ~10 USD.

I'm expecting that once the dust settles, we will hopefully get a bit of stability for a while, and then the next move should be yet another spectacular rally. I'd say we'll see a new ATH by summer.