Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: cellard on August 08, 2018, 03:12:33 PM



Title: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: cellard on August 08, 2018, 03:12:33 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/08/08/bitcoin-price-falls-after-sec-postpones-key-etf-decision.html


This news from 17 minutes ago should be the reason of the current dip. Obviously insider information made the dip happen before the news hit, so as pretty easily predicted by anyone that wasn't delusional enough to think the ETF would pass, we are now going to shed all the noobs and speculators that heard somewhere how the ETF was coming and we would be going to the moon next morning.

Probably new speculative pump before the next decision which of course be a rejection. Until all the ETF noobs are shaken out of the market we can continue going up without them.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: fabiorem on August 08, 2018, 03:23:20 PM
I would prefer tether printing to the ETF.

If ten billion tethers are printed (without a fiat equivalent), the bears are burned.  ;D


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: lilli_stitch on August 08, 2018, 03:30:48 PM
This sensational fuss over the ETF is borderline lunacy. It's just another reason to jerk the price around and stop out everyone who hid under the 7000 level or wherever. I'm getting sick and tired of these 30,000 by Dec / 50,000 by Oct / 100,000,000 by 2020 forecasts. How in the hell can anyone have a true idea of what the coin's value is going to be if there are no fundamental values to base a judgement on? Forecasters have a hard enough time doing it even when the values do exist.

This dip is just another good reason to hang on and chill out. It's not the doom, and the ETF isn't the future.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: LeGaulois on August 08, 2018, 04:11:47 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/08/08/bitcoin-price-falls-after-sec-postpones-key-etf-decision.html


This news from 17 minutes ago should be the reason of the current dip. Obviously insider information made the dip happen before the news hit, so as pretty easily predicted by anyone that wasn't delusional enough to think the ETF would pass, we are now going to shed all the noobs and speculators that heard somewhere how the ETF was coming and we would be going to the moon next morning.

Probably new speculative pump before the next decision which of course be a rejection. Until all the ETF noobs are shaken out of the market we can continue going up without them.

ETF speculators will always come back, don't worry "Follow The Money" Also the dip started the last week of July, it's a too long period of time up to today in my opinion. It could also be the fact that the wave of ETF speculators has come to its end.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: aqila baruroh on August 08, 2018, 04:19:54 PM
This delay makes the price of bitcoin fall even further today, most likely there will be a pump if it has received approval. but if it is not approved, maybe the bitcoin price will drop deeper.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: Warbson on August 08, 2018, 04:47:08 PM
some people said Bitcoin price will go to 1000 if etf refused , that will be a big crach of the market and investors confident


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: BitHodler on August 08, 2018, 05:56:00 PM
some people said Bitcoin price will go to 1000 if etf refused , that will be a big crach of the market and investors confident
The ETF isn't that important. At worst we might be testing newer lows between $5000 and $6000 but nothing more than that. If people say they think the price will fall to $1000 they are delusional.

While others are panicking I have bought myself some smaller bits around $6400 some moments ago. It boggles my mind how people still don't understand that corrections are a blessing instead of a negative event.

The real market test will follow directly after an actual rejection. If I'm not mistaken (correct me if I'm wrong) the SEC has still one more opportunity to postpone the ETF before actually approving or rejecting it.

In all cases we will for sure know the outcome this year.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: Farma on August 08, 2018, 06:13:37 PM
well, I think this is the main cause of the decline in bitcoin prices that have occurred for now. well, I think ETF really affects the price of bitcoin for now. I really hope that the effort on the founder of the crypto market was truly accepted by the ETF at the next call.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: gentlemand on August 08, 2018, 06:15:37 PM
I'm disappointed the market is this dim. However we know perfectly well the people driving these movements are not dim. They'll make hay while the sun shines and others are more than willing to run straight into their hands.

No one has said anything to me that has convinced me that an ETF in any form will pass at any time in the nearish future. The main reason seems to be 'well, it would be, like, todally AWESOME.' Quite possibly. That's no reason for them to say yes.

Let it not be forgotten that the price did rather more than fine after the first proper rejection. It will again some day.

I don't think this bubble is fully popped by any means. ETF shite can be pinned on as an excuse but really it's the same old cycles playing out once again.



Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: Baofeng on August 08, 2018, 07:23:06 PM
Yes, I totally agree that the postponement creates another panic causing the price to go down again. Those speculators who get into the picture thought that it might be approved but since they consider this delay as a negative news, they sold and newbie traders panics again. Its really a disappointed and we are back to square one again waiting for another positive news that can help us get the price again above $7K-8K.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: hatshepsut93 on August 08, 2018, 07:47:20 PM
Remember how just a few weeks ago people were telling that we have passed the bottom and on the road to 20k/30k/40k by the end of this year?

But some users on this forum understood that the market at the moment was insanely tied to ETF news, big price movements always followed them. Also those users are skeptical about the possibility of the SEC actually approving an ETF. So, overall this dip shouldn't be surprising to experienced bitcoiners. Noobs should take a lesson here to stop losing money in the future due to FOMO/FUD and instead plan for some long term strategy or maybe sharpen their trading skills.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: mostkey on August 08, 2018, 09:18:42 PM
Public enthusiasm for ETFs is very high expectations so that after the actual decision is postponed then the fear occurs very quickly, a very large effect occurs, with a very rapid price reduction adds panic to new people in investing, very common with every increase and decrease, what which is probably because everyone doesn't want to lose all the money that is in possession but always ambitious to get high achievement, I believe that in the future there will be a tremendous increase, it won't be like this continuously.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: adaseb on August 08, 2018, 09:23:26 PM
This sensational fuss over the ETF is borderline lunacy. It's just another reason to jerk the price around and stop out everyone who hid under the 7000 level or wherever. I'm getting sick and tired of these 30,000 by Dec / 50,000 by Oct / 100,000,000 by 2020 forecasts. How in the hell can anyone have a true idea of what the coin's value is going to be if there are no fundamental values to base a judgement on? Forecasters have a hard enough time doing it even when the values do exist.

This dip is just another good reason to hang on and chill out. It's not the doom, and the ETF isn't the future.

Completely agree and even the legendary theymos also agrees.

Basically there are way too many weak hands, too many highly leveraged speculators and too many people who just want to get rich quick and they are the reason why these crazy $1000 in 24 hours sell offs happen.

We all knew the ETF would be delayed, all these ETF get delayed first before they get rejected.

I think what the retail traders do is as follows,

1) Heard from a friend of a friend of a friend or an Uber driver and buy BTC at $20,000

2) When BTC went to $6000, they panic sold and became a bear.

3) They shorted BTC and got liquidated on the most recent move

4) They finally figured, "ok BTC will go up now" and bought at $8500

5) They sold again when the ETF was delayed.


Rinse and repeat.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: figmentofmyass on August 08, 2018, 09:36:33 PM
it didn't really "create" another dip. that dip was likely coming anyway. this is a bear market until proven otherwise---and it doesn't help that sentiment is so bullish. ;)

some people said Bitcoin price will go to 1000 if etf refused , that will be a big crach of the market and investors confident
The ETF isn't that important. At worst we might be testing newer lows between $5000 and $6000 but nothing more than that. If people say they think the price will fall to $1000 they are delusional.

really? it wouldn't be outside the realm of normal. that's roughly the equivalent of the 2011 bubble pop. that would probably be the worst case scenario, but i wouldn't rule it out!


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: fabiorem on August 08, 2018, 10:31:03 PM
Retail traders are nocoiners.

Only the hodlers are true bitcoiners.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: BitHodler on August 08, 2018, 10:32:23 PM
really? it wouldn't be outside the realm of normal. that's roughly the equivalent of the 2011 bubble pop. that would probably be the worst case scenario, but i wouldn't rule it out!
Just because something can happen doesn't mean it will happen. If that's your way of looking at things, we shouldn't discard the possibility of falling back below $100 either, or even below $10.

Back in 2013 we were initially hovering around $15 and within the same year we touched $1100. The long term correction took the price back down to around $150 in 2015. It didn't fall back to its starting point and it won't this time.

If there ever would be a time it was a realistic possibility, it would be after the 2013 correction, but it didn't happen. We're way further now and created a new floor just like how we created a new floor after the 2013 bull run.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: pitiflin on August 08, 2018, 10:47:19 PM
This sensational fuss over the ETF is borderline lunacy. It's just another reason to jerk the price around and stop out everyone who hid under the 7000 level or wherever. I'm getting sick and tired of these 30,000 by Dec / 50,000 by Oct / 100,000,000 by 2020 forecasts. How in the hell can anyone have a true idea of what the coin's value is going to be if there are no fundamental values to base a judgement on? Forecasters have a hard enough time doing it even when the values do exist.

This dip is just another good reason to hang on and chill out. It's not the doom, and the ETF isn't the future.
ETF is crap. Bitcoin was created to be a mainstream currency and not to be a main stream investment(which I am afraid it already has). ETF eliminates the purpose of bitcoin. So fuck that shit.

Can someone start a petition and ask the assholes who want to get bitcoin ETFs approved to shut the fuck up and get away from bitcoin and its community? Thanks.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: kendedese on August 08, 2018, 11:06:53 PM
this is a very serious problem and this is the umpteenth time they delay this, the price of bitcoin will continue to decline until there is agreement. there seems to be someone who wants to take advantage of this  :P


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: exstasie on August 08, 2018, 11:33:41 PM
This sensational fuss over the ETF is borderline lunacy. It's just another reason to jerk the price around and stop out everyone who hid under the 7000 level or wherever. I'm getting sick and tired of these 30,000 by Dec / 50,000 by Oct / 100,000,000 by 2020 forecasts. How in the hell can anyone have a true idea of what the coin's value is going to be if there are no fundamental values to base a judgement on? Forecasters have a hard enough time doing it even when the values do exist.

This dip is just another good reason to hang on and chill out. It's not the doom, and the ETF isn't the future.
ETF is crap. Bitcoin was created to be a mainstream currency and not to be a main stream investment(which I am afraid it already has). ETF eliminates the purpose of bitcoin. So fuck that shit.

I think the securitization of Bitcoin is bad news all around. It doesn't eliminate the purpose of Bitcoin, but it distracts from it. The protocol/network keeps chugging along no matter what. You won't see me treating ETF shares as sound money. It's paper based on trust.

But the problem is that society bows so heavily to authority. People will trust (and some Bitcoin folks around here already do trust) that "paper backing" is as good as real bitcoins. But this is inevitable. It's really not much different than counterfeiting coins in the traditional sense. Most people simply trust legal face value.

Re: the currency vs. investment dilemma: I think Bitcoin was created to be sound money. Money is only an investment insofar as Gresham's law ("bad money drives out good"). As long as our economies are dominated by freely printed and debased currencies, people will invest in BTC. There's no way around that.

So I guess we should expect these slimy derivative products to come to market as well. All we can do is preach the difference between real BTC and paper BTC.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: pitiflin on August 08, 2018, 11:51:04 PM
I think the securitization of Bitcoin is bad news all around. It doesn't eliminate the purpose of Bitcoin, but it distracts from it. The protocol/network keeps chugging along no matter what. You won't see me treating ETF shares as sound money. It's paper based on trust.

But the problem is that society bows so heavily to authority. People will trust (and some Bitcoin folks around here already do trust) that "paper backing" is as good as real bitcoins. But this is inevitable. It's really not much different than counterfeiting coins in the traditional sense. Most people simply trust legal face value.

Re: the currency vs. investment dilemma: I think Bitcoin was created to be sound money. Money is only an investment insofar as Gresham's law ("bad money drives out good"). As long as our economies are dominated by freely printed and debased currencies, people will invest in BTC. There's no way around that.

So I guess we should expect these slimy derivative products to come to market as well. All we can do is preach the difference between real BTC and paper BTC.
How does it not eliminate the purpose of bitcoin? It eliminates the fact that bitcoin was supposed to be a peer to peer currency eliminating the usage of 3rd party intermediaries. ETF sucks and people need to understand that. Hell people even got scammed by such methods(through unofficial sources who were actually scammers).

Unfortunately at the moment I don't have a counter argument about the currency vs investment dilemma, good points made there. But the ETF thing, fuck that.  


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: exstasie on August 09, 2018, 02:29:24 AM
I think the securitization of Bitcoin is bad news all around. It doesn't eliminate the purpose of Bitcoin, but it distracts from it. The protocol/network keeps chugging along no matter what. You won't see me treating ETF shares as sound money. It's paper based on trust.

But the problem is that society bows so heavily to authority. People will trust (and some Bitcoin folks around here already do trust) that "paper backing" is as good as real bitcoins. But this is inevitable. It's really not much different than counterfeiting coins in the traditional sense. Most people simply trust legal face value.

Re: the currency vs. investment dilemma: I think Bitcoin was created to be sound money. Money is only an investment insofar as Gresham's law ("bad money drives out good"). As long as our economies are dominated by freely printed and debased currencies, people will invest in BTC. There's no way around that.

So I guess we should expect these slimy derivative products to come to market as well. All we can do is preach the difference between real BTC and paper BTC.
How does it not eliminate the purpose of bitcoin? It eliminates the fact that bitcoin was supposed to be a peer to peer currency eliminating the usage of 3rd party intermediaries. ETF sucks and people need to understand that. Hell people even got scammed by such methods(through unofficial sources who were actually scammers).

Unfortunately at the moment I don't have a counter argument about the currency vs investment dilemma, good points made there. But the ETF thing, fuck that.  

Seems like a language issue here. I was confused by your wording of "eliminate the purpose of bitcoin." ETF shares are just paper securities. They require trust, so of course they aren't a replacement for bitcoins. They aren't bitcoins. If that's all you're saying, I agree. That's why I said:

Quote
All we can do is preach the difference between real BTC and paper BTC.

It's just like people holding debt notes payable in gold vs. holding real gold bullion.... eventually, the counterparty trust will fuck people over. I get that.

I thought you were saying this had some relevance to the protocol. I think that was the confusion. It's completely 100% irrelevant. If ETF share buyers believe they are buying bitcoins, they are ignorant and may get screwed because of it. But I do think BTC securities are unavoidable (due to hype, deception and misunderstanding of Bitcoin), so as a community, we need to emphasize the difference between real bitcoins and fake securities.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: yndye on August 09, 2018, 02:40:45 AM
Yes, I totally agree that the postponement creates another panic causing the price to go down again. Those speculators who get into the picture thought that it might be approved but since they consider this delay as a negative news, they sold and newbie traders panics again. Its really a disappointed and we are back to square one again waiting for another positive news that can help us get the price again above $7K-8K.

ETF is the one people anticipating to break the bear market but unfortunately the decision has been delayed which is a strategy perhaps of those people who wanted to buy back cheap coins and some who wanted to short the market. It has just been delayed but not rejected though that's why people shouldn't panic like that. Nevertheless, this is a lesson that once you have profits, you should consider taking some or all of it to secure it because crypto prices is just too volatile that one moment you are in profit and with just a blink of an eye, you are at a loss.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: The Pharmacist on August 09, 2018, 02:54:32 AM
This sensational fuss over the ETF is borderline lunacy.
I agree, and didn't we already go through this about a year and a half ago with the CBOE?  My memory might be a little faulty about the details, but I definitely recall an ETF discussion not that long ago and I seem to recall some price movement then as well.

It does seem like the price action is because of this news, but I don't think it can be said with certainty that this is the case.  If it IS true, I'm wondering why there was such a dramatic drop--bitcoin is $6328 as I write this, and that's over $2000 less than what it achieved during the last little price recovery we had.  That's a pretty damn steep dip, and from what I read about the ETF thing, it's only a postponement of a decision, not a flat-out rejection. 

I'm wondering if some big buyers bought bitcoin outright in anticipation of an approval and then lost faith (or got some inside information).


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: bbc.reporter on August 09, 2018, 03:00:31 AM
This sensational fuss over the ETF is borderline lunacy. It's just another reason to jerk the price around and stop out everyone who hid under the 7000 level or wherever. I'm getting sick and tired of these 30,000 by Dec / 50,000 by Oct / 100,000,000 by 2020 forecasts. How in the hell can anyone have a true idea of what the coin's value is going to be if there are no fundamental values to base a judgement on? Forecasters have a hard enough time doing it even when the values do exist.

This dip is just another good reason to hang on and chill out. It's not the doom, and the ETF isn't the future.

Agreed. But also, why are the people dumping with a loss now? That would be a mistake. The article says that the decision was postponed only until September 30. It might be better for them to hold a while longer and sell on a better price.




Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: Hueristic on August 09, 2018, 04:02:07 AM
This would be a nice time to see a beartrap. :)


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: figmentofmyass on August 09, 2018, 04:20:38 PM
really? it wouldn't be outside the realm of normal. that's roughly the equivalent of the 2011 bubble pop. that would probably be the worst case scenario, but i wouldn't rule it out!
Just because something can happen doesn't mean it will happen. If that's your way of looking at things, we shouldn't discard the possibility of falling back below $100 either, or even below $10.

all i said is "i wouldn't rule it out" because you called people delusional for thinking we could see a 94% drop from the top. we literally only have a handful of bubbles to study, and one of them dropped 94% from the top!

you make it sound like dropping another > 10x or > 100x from there is just as likely. why? ::)

Back in 2013 we were initially hovering around $15 and within the same year we touched $1100. The long term correction took the price back down to around $150 in 2015. It didn't fall back to its starting point and it won't this time.

when it comes to markets, most people are wrong most of the time in their trades and predictions. i don't think we're going back to $1000, but i need to remain open to all realistic scenarios and trade accordingly. i became much more successful as a trader when i stopped having the attitude that "x won't happen" or "y can't happen." that mentality will get you killed in the markets because it prevents you from acting until the "unthinkable" has already occurred.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: bbc.reporter on August 10, 2018, 01:13:23 AM
This would be a nice time to see a beartrap. :)

I reckon it is. When the date approaches near September 30, we would see the same people who sold on $7000 and lower, buy again on $8000 hehehe. If there is a dump back to $7000, they sell again with a loss.



Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: lilli_stitch on August 10, 2018, 03:43:09 AM
This sensational fuss over the ETF is borderline lunacy. It's just another reason to jerk the price around and stop out everyone who hid under the 7000 level or wherever. I'm getting sick and tired of these 30,000 by Dec / 50,000 by Oct / 100,000,000 by 2020 forecasts. How in the hell can anyone have a true idea of what the coin's value is going to be if there are no fundamental values to base a judgement on? Forecasters have a hard enough time doing it even when the values do exist.

This dip is just another good reason to hang on and chill out. It's not the doom, and the ETF isn't the future.
ETF is crap. Bitcoin was created to be a mainstream currency and not to be a main stream investment(which I am afraid it already has). ETF eliminates the purpose of bitcoin. So fuck that shit.

I think the securitization of Bitcoin is bad news all around. It doesn't eliminate the purpose of Bitcoin, but it distracts from it. The protocol/network keeps chugging along no matter what. You won't see me treating ETF shares as sound money. It's paper based on trust.

But the problem is that society bows so heavily to authority. People will trust (and some Bitcoin folks around here already do trust) that "paper backing" is as good as real bitcoins. But this is inevitable. It's really not much different than counterfeiting coins in the traditional sense. Most people simply trust legal face value.

Re: the currency vs. investment dilemma: I think Bitcoin was created to be sound money. Money is only an investment insofar as Gresham's law ("bad money drives out good"). As long as our economies are dominated by freely printed and debased currencies, people will invest in BTC. There's no way around that.

So I guess we should expect these slimy derivative products to come to market as well. All we can do is preach the difference between real BTC and paper BTC.

Exactly. This is one more distraction serving elite interests that apparently is working very well, as we can see all around this forum. Bitcoin has a higher purpose than to be tied to paper contracts that have no intrinsic value. It is not meant to have institutional investors piling money into it like that. Not that we have any real way to stop it anyway.

But yes, this institutional face value will make it a valid form of investment in the eyes of many. Specifically those that are shy about the "legal ramifications" of bitcoin not being able to be settled in the court of law. So those that previously wouldn't touch bitcoin with a 30 foot pole will be able to sleep at night with an piece of paper to hold onto.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: vintages on August 10, 2018, 06:29:19 AM
Not another ETF on bitcoin price prediction, while do you people keep on linking this two together when they simply don't link together. Though, the news that ETF acceptance of bitcoin would make a huge pump in the price of bitcoin is really what made most people to rush and purchase more bitcoin hoping to see their gains. Bitcoin will pump or dump without ETF intervention.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: omonuyak on August 10, 2018, 07:44:47 AM
The ETF postponed has really affected bitcoin price upwards movement and I think we should not be discouraged about our holding as we have hope things are going to change in time.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: 1Referee on August 10, 2018, 02:25:23 PM
The ETF postponed has really affected bitcoin price upwards movement and I think we should not be discouraged about our holding as we have hope things are going to change in time.

The SEC postponing an ETF means it's rejected. The only reason they don't reject it right away is because they don't want to be showered with hate and negativity. It's not even worth focusing on anymore, but the market as shitty as it is will recycle this ETF till the SEC has actually rejected it.

The problem with people here is that they only use Bitcoin for speculative purposes, and in case there is nothing left to speculate about, they'll get upset and bored. I don't have that problem because I actually use it as money, regardless of the price. If you directly buy back every spent coin the price isn't important and you can use it nearly as conveniently as when you use fiat.

Seriously, the only thing that speculating has done to people this year is stress them out big time. Drop it for once and accept that 2018 is not going to be the year.


Title: Re: ETF postponed creates another dip
Post by: thresher on August 26, 2018, 04:19:15 PM
Yes, I totally agree that the postponement creates another panic causing the price to go down again. Those speculators who get into the picture thought that it might be approved but since they consider this delay as a negative news, they sold and newbie traders panics again. Its really a disappointed and we are back to square one again waiting for another positive news that can help us get the price again above $7K-8K.
Yes that is right that in current time we were not expecting the current depth. People were very much hopeful that after the acceptance of ETF bitcoin price will rise too much and even some investors were expected that bitcoin price will hopefully cross 20k in next few months.