Bitcoin Forum

Sell or HODL before Aug 23? Thoughts on the impact of the BTC market ? Will it be approved or rejected...?

Hmmm...

I am a believer in HODLING... been doing so since the market crash... but if it is rejected, won't it have a pretty nasty impact on the market?

https://www.coindesk.com/sec-faces-thursday-deadline-for-proshares-bitcoin-etf-decision/

 

The general sentiment is that the VanEck/SolidX ETF is the most legit and most likely to be approved out of any of the other proposals. I personally feel the same way, and I think it is pretty likely that the Proshares proposal will be rejected. As for the market reaction? There definitely would not be a huge crash or major market reaction. Maybe there would be a small dip in price but that's all. Honestly, I think most speculators that are waiting for an ETF are placing their bets on the Solidx proposal. If that one was denied, I'm sure there would be a much stronger market reaction.

I'm a solid holder so it doesn't matter to me whatever will be the outcome of this proposal.
As expected, this is going to bring in confidence and will attract more investors.
Who knows? let's just wait for the final result, if it's approved then good but if its rejected, good as well as expected.

last one that got rejected was from Winklevoss brothers and that was hyped up and price fell a little, there was no "nasty impact" and that drop was mainly because the FUD was telling people ETF was rejected completely and it is is the end of the world :D

this new one is not even heard of. its rejection shouldn't even be heard. not to mention that people are starting to be convinced that ETFs are never going to be approved by SEC. and i think this upcoming rejection is a good thing because it will make more people believe ALL of them will be rejected soon.

I have been researching this topic a bit over the last few days.  Most people think this one will be rejected by the SEC.  Most also believe this one is not as viable as the WinkVoss proposal.  Not sure how the markets will react. 

I'm not saying it's going to be declined, but I'm not THAT confident as of now. I'm unloading a small amount of BTC for now just to protect me a bit if it drops, just to slightly reduce the risk. There's definitely also a good chance that it's going to be approved though. Probably worst case scenario it gets postponed like the previous ETF.

Great so lets get ready for the "little" dump and nothing else. I believe that will also come from the people who are "too panicked" and doesnt understand what does it take to hold the bitcoin in place.

One thing is sure, whatever might be the decision of ETF, the rest of the world is not going to wait after that day and everyone may just start to crawl in slowly so that the market will get to recovery zone.

Just thinking that way until now.

The more significant date is 30 September. The approval is more likely to get at the CBOE, we are waiting

I think it will be declined as usual and IF this ETF were approved it wouldn't benefit us hodlers in the long run as it will be determined and governed by Bitcoin futures, which have been one of the primary reasons the price of Bitcoin and all Altcoins got rekt in 2018. I am sure we will see a lot of tethering again tomorrow and Bitcoin bleed again by some 10% because as we all know the market doesn't behave rationally at all. So many other good things happening in the crypto space right now have no effect on the prices, only FUD and bad news move the market in a bear cycle.

If you believe in holding your coins then you should not be worried at all. I have never heard of this etf, and I believe it's rejection will barely cause any fluctuations in the prices. It's also pertinent to note that the market has already discounted, the possibility of all etfs being rejected so in the event it's rejected we might see small fluctuations only. I'm more excited for Cboe etf I'm sure it'll be accepted, the only question is when.

Don't we have many etf rejection before? Does that have any real impact on market? I think no not any recognizable and right now bitcoin is still under oversold position so going any large dip from current price range is quite unlikely even if there will be really bad news for crypto.

I think it's still a buy time and gonna buy more if price will dive below $6k again.

Not sure about your definition of "real impact", but it definitely impacts the market significantly. On the past ETF we had a price bump before the deadline, and the price dipped when everyone knew that the ETF decision was postponed. I'm expecting the same to happen soon(no guarantees though, as usual).

Definitely has a impact but the dent will be short live. I'm having mix emotions as well but if ever SEC rejects this proposal, another good opportunity for everyone to purchased again. And to OP, would rather hold and then buy some if the market reacts negatively to another ETF rejection.

In the span of this week, the SEC must come to a lasting decision on two specific ETFs, finalizing whether it is approved or disapproved them,  Decision will effect to the current market I think so ETF will reject this time also

The previous rejection didn't have a huge impact but gemini have been unsuccessful before so no-one expected them to succeed anyway. This won't be the last application so a rejection won't end bitcoin, but it will delay the next bull run

Probably it will be approved it seems that cryptocurrency is already ruled out in every country and there is a huge possibility of approval since the system is already running on every country. If i were you taking already the risk here in cryptocurrency means that you have to endure it and earn well in the near future.

I thought the decision was next month in September not this one?

https://www.coindesk.com/sec-delays-vaneck-solidx-bitcoin-etf-decision-to-september/


The one last month did. A denial is never going to be good for the price because people always panic like idiots.

That's for sure. We are waiting for a whole series of rejections, which will definitely affect the price, but will not kill BTC.

Hopefully, it won't get approved because I need to make a profit in this situation of the market since the dump at 10000$

I will wait for the results before making a decision for now I will hold my hodlings, but hoping that it would be accepted so that the value of bitcoin would not crash at the moment let's find hope for this, so we can move for another support of 10000$ and the bull would start and the bear season would end and everyone will be back on their track.

We're gonna play this game all year, aren't we? I see price is trudging upwards heading into the decision: is this another "buy the rumor, sell the news" situation? That's what it looks like, unfortunately.

I think to myself, "Can the market really be dumb enough to keep falling for this?" Then I remember all the times China "banned Bitcoin" and the market subsequently sold off. ::)

I've been awaiting all these ETF decisions from years now and starting with the Winkovoss ETF and its always the same story.

At first it gets delayed... then delayed again... then delayed again and then when its out of delays.... it get rejected.

Sometimes its rejected early and sometimes right at the last minute. However its always rejected.

I think 99% of people know it will get rejected but the whales are using this opportunity to allow market manipulation. Basically what happened about 2 weeks ago with the CBOE ETF delay, I think BTC lost almost $1000 2 days later after the delay...which we all knew was a given.

I say hold for now, bitcoin is already quite cheap comparatively speaking. And we do not have any ETF right now to bitcoin's name so if etf gets rejected that means we still don't have any ETF with bitcoin as well. Nothing changes in our life it gets rejected. Moreover, if it gets accepted that means there are BILLIONS of dollars put into bitcoin which will increase the price insanely. So there is actually nothing bad that could happen with this, either we continue as we already are, or we go up, not downside. Considering price is also insanely low than there is no reason not to hold, even buy more at this point.

yeah after a rejection it will get less and less impact just like the china FUD nothing has a real impact on BTC it are just tools to get the price lower

I really do not expect the market to have any strange behaviour based on any ETF proposal rejection. As far as I am concerned, the market is still in a downtrend and it is meant to still find a bottom eventually anyway, and from the sentiments in the market, we all know it is very bearish whichever way.

This may fuel it up a little bit or not, but there is no point laying so much emphasis on the ETF proposal like it is actually what would make the market what it would be eventually. Probably, it may be used by some to generate FUD in the market, but what is important for me and what has been important is picking the dip once it arrives like a hungry lion.

I'm getting so tired of all this ETF talk, all the hype and the fud as it's exactly China bans BTC all over.

Personally, I'm at the point where I don't give a damn anymore, just reject them all for good and schedule the next hearing in a century or approve them all so we can finally have some peace....until the next big thing comes up and we're going to get glued to the screens again....

I have no sell orders no buy orders and even if it goes up or down 10%-20% I'm planning on not giving a damn, just opening a beer and enjoying another closed chapter of this neverending saga.

I doubt that the ETF will be approved, just based on the countless others that have been rejected beforehand.

I don't think that the rejection will have much impact, if at all, in the market. The market has grown insensitive to ETF approvals in general, simply because there has been so many of them being rejected in the last year or so.

The last one didn't have any impact. And even though people thought that prices were going to tank after the ETF got rejected, it didn't. Obviously, if this one got approved, it would likely cause a rally within the market. But the prospects of that is slim, imo.

Three applications dead in one stroke -  Direxion, Proshares, Graniteshares.

Only one of them was on its final deadline, the rest could've been extended. These were all futures based ETFs I believe. No great loss.

https://www.coindesk.com/ftc-issues-warning-on-bitcoin-blackmail-scams/

The wording is identical for each rejection. The Vaneck ETF does nothing to address the reason for rejection either.

Why does everyone are into this ETF when it won't really affect the bitcoin's market price. If ever it will be approved the holder/company who has the ETF bitcoin will surely get the upperhand. Of course it will help citizens from the use who are not applicable to buy or invest on bitcoin will have the chance to get it as a stock but not as a currency like anybody does here.

There are ETFs that hold bitcoins. More demand means they have to buy more of them to hold for customers. Those ETFs would have a direct effect on the market.

There is a website you can go to and you put in your email and it alerts you of an ETF approval or denial.

Basically I think it came like 2-3 minutes too late and at 22:03 GMT the dumping already started.

However basically it would of not helped you because by the time you got the alert, and logged into your exchange to sell the price already dropped and since then has actually rallied.

Basically it makes it look like this ETF denial was nothing but a bear trap.

Yep. I do not believe the ETF statements have much influence on the price.

At least 3 ETFs have been rejected and people still think that there is a chance. And yes, if it gets rejected(I believe it has already been) , it would have a negative impact, even though it shouldn't. Who is to convince the fucking dumbasses that an ETF is not related to bitcoin directly. Its just a piece of paper.

Worse part is, there's going to be a crash in midst of a current bearish run. Wonderful!  >:(

even if you don't believe it, but the impact on bitcoin on ETFs is clearly a significant change in value. and I think everyone hopes that the real ETF will be approved.

Better focus on the price action after the announcement than the before impact so that you will know what your next move will be. News base trading is risky for me and I prefer to just trade base on technical analysis since it would give me an idea of when to buy and to sell. It may not work in my favor all the time but at least I know what's my next move will be wherever the price will go. Crypto market has so many trading opportunities because of its volatility.

Which ones are those?

As I understand it, these are locked funds. Once their structures are approved, they have a set number of shares to issue and supply won't change at all. After all, they need to track the spot market. Arbitrage is supposed to prevent any need to increase the underlying supply of the ETF. It's not supposed to be an isolated market.

But that's the rub. Arbitrage is supposed to decrease tracking risk, but it doesn't eliminate it. This is one of the legit reasons to deny Bitcoin ETFs. There are liquidity and tracking risks that are being ignored by applicants, and those have real implications for prospective investors.

well as you can see today, these "little dumps" are too little for regular investors to want to benefit from. they are only suitable for day traders who are too hungry for any small change that can give them a small profit. and so far the effects of ETF rejection is dwindling for good ;D

Pieces of paper are what distinguish between legal and illegal, private property and public resources, signed contracts and empty promises.

Fractional reserve banking is the economic power base of many federal governments. Governments cannot afford a consumer-exodus away from fiat. This is why gold-backed currencies are swiftly and violently eradicated. Yet bitcoin is too decentralized to be destroyed with brute force. ETFs and licensed exchanges give government oversight over investors. They can allow law enforcement to freeze criminal assets, and auditors to track finances. There is more transparency, flexibility, and accountability than a trustee-held wallet. I believe that big banks want to corner the market and destabilize the price of bitcoin, in order to prevent a breakthrough from destabilizing the economy. Everyone is worried about inflation, and bankers know that hyperinflation can destroy a country. If banks cannot corner a market then they need to diversify their assets to protect the purchasing power of the fiat they issue. Owning bitcoin mitigates the risk of a bitcoin breakthrough, and at the same time allows bitcoin to be incorporated into the fractional reserve system as collateral, allowing governments and banks to maintain their leverage over the national economy. Hedge funds have more buying power than independent investors. A group of banks can 'issue' out much more fiat than they actually own, so their buying power is very, very high. In the short-term, this is good. In the long-term, it may lead to stifling regulation and increased volatility, because banks want a monopoly on merchant-transactions.

Edit: I believe some ETFs were already approved since February? Nasdaq NextGen Economy (BLCN) by Reality Shares, Transformational Data Sharing (BLOK) by Amplify, First Trust (LEGR), and for Canada there’s Harvest Portfolios (HBLK) and Evolve Funds Inc. (LINK). Who were they approved by?

this has happened at this time, the SEC rejected 9 bitcoin ETF applications. the market returns red and the price of bitcoin falls like a rock. it looks like things are getting worse.

I'm thinking back to March 2017, so long ago  :D      Yes in percentage terms that was a big blip on the graph but it was only short term news.   It doesnt really matter because most of the people who even know about the ETF dont imagine it will sail through easily and the other half never thought it had a chance in any case.

So long ago this didnt matter compared to an overall trend and now what seems years later we are still dragging out the same news, repeated and just as unlikely to pass, now I dont see it having as much effect as people imagine.

While we stare at this news headline the actual story of the underlying market is going by unnoticed.   I dont know what that story is, maybe some government change maybe some new kind of usage for the blockchain.   Not sure but the real news is not this ETF, its only what people are speaking about most which is another dynamic.

There is the conscious change and the unconscious market drift that occurs while we look past it, then one day the ground has moved beneath us

^^ in the end it doesn't matter how many of these ETFs come and get rejected and go. it all depends on how people think about them and how hyped up they are about each of these. otherwise it can even be approved and nothing changes about the price if nobody cared about it. just like lots of positive news that we had in the past 8 months of drop and none of them could change the trend to rising.

And on the other side, there are people who are remains hopeful for the remaining Bitcoin ETF proposals. It doesn't mean that this is the end of the world for the crypto market and have some flash back last year with the past proposals.
The only reason why people wanted to approve those proposals is they think institution money will come in to the economy.

What rock? What fall....
Am I watching the wrong price ticker?
We're again at before August 22 level, that pump happened for no reason at all.


Exactly, it can be approved but if people avoid "investing" nothing will change.
It's the same as McDonalds accepting BTC, if nobody buys a menu with coins the whole thing is useless.

You just have to look at the first Winklevoss application last year, the price pump but when the news came out that it was rejected, the price plummet but look at where the price ended at 2017. Although you can argue that 2018 is really different, but I believed that it won't have a lasting effect on the price because investors will continue to purchase bitcoin with or without ETF approval.


Yes, exactly my point, it will just be another hype but once it died down nobody really care and we are all back in business as usual. Buy/sell/trade/cash-out. That's why I have mix emotions about this Bitcoin ETF suddenly taking the headlines again.

This has been said on another topic. It looks like the ETF will not have the opportunity to continue. It seems the community is stirring about it. Investors should be cautious.