Bitcoin Forum

Exactly how the most experienced people said! It's fun to watch but until bitcoin will have a solid economy, high prices can't be sustainable. We really need a more services and shops accepting BTC.

2.74 and 2.5 look good as bottom for at least the next week. i doubt it will go much lower than 2.0 at all anytime. im willing to bet some 5 BTC for it.

..so i was bored, and added some random lines to this chart ;)

http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/3864/chartn.jpg

I predicted the same thing at the start of the week, apparently stability has been reached for the time being. I think something new might be afoot now. Especially considering the period of almost perfectly flat stability on Oct 26. Price fluxuations for the last day and a half seem kinda odd. I am kind of expecting a big crash still, but I can't say I'm certain anymore.

It's enough of a hassle to extract funds from the Bitcoin system into another currency that there will be residual wealth held in the micro-economy. If this is where that equilibrium forms, then all that's needed to maintain is a slow spread of awareness and experimental usage by Bitcoin neophytes; even if it's just a few thousand people (out of ~7 billion) buying a couple of BTC to see what it's all about.

Any significant interest generated and we could see another run up in exchange rates. It really wouldn't take much. Although the floor hasn't exactly become bedrock and there's a lot of technical damage yet to be repaired... still very precarious times for Bitcoin's early adoption phase.

It'll be interesting to see the extent that panic in the global economy at large affects Bitcoin.

Here it goes, I am calling a spike up to 2.9 something in the next hour followed by a drop to 2.6, maybe 2.4 if the bidwall pulls out.

To me it looks like the manipulator is trying to push the price back up. He keeps putting his bid walls higher, He now has every .05 cents reinforced by over 5,000 bitcoins. Anytime bitcoin raises .05 cents, he reinforces .05 below that point with a big bidwall.

He probably is buying them at the spot price also.

I don't know how much money he is willing to invest at this point, but it has seemed he has unlimited funds and does not want to give up on bitcoin.

Without the manipulator we would be seeing less than $1.00 right now.

Bid   2.1   778.5
Bid   2.15   2107.83
Bid   2.2   5060.48
Bid   2.25   3184.2
Bid   2.3   2480.02
Bid   2.35   2012.49
Bid   2.4   5923.39
Bid   2.45   5576.28
Bid   2.5   26322.9
Bid   2.55   2886.89
Bid   2.6   6318.72
Bid   2.65   7649.42
Bid   2.7   6683.69
Bid   2.75   2568.1
Bid   2.8   537.93

Well it still is lingering around $3.  Err.  well it lingered lower than I thought but still lingered.  Typically from the end of the month through about the first two weeks in the month is when the price drops.  I also think the end of November will be the very bottom because a month before the 2012 change, people will buy coins anticipating the change.

Of course I don't have any spare money to invest so I am more open to predict stuff since if I'm wrong, I don't lose anything.  I probably won't have money till when the price is back up to $10 or even $20 then I buy coins unfortunately at a high rate.

I think he's given up.  He's just following trends.

if this is happening then the most sensible reason is that he has sell orders that he is pushing the market into. as his sell orders are sold he reinforces his buy orders pushing the price slighty higher. When his big sell orders have been consumed he will pull his bids and let the market fall to a good price to buy. rinse and repeat.

this is what has been happening all along the downtrend.

He probably has a million coins.  He can't sell them all without making the price drop 80%.

I think it's going to spike to 3 again soon.

yeah, he is not going to dump any way that is not the style of the manipulator.  he has asks in place and moves the market up towards his asks.

Heh, the spike happened :) This is totally going to prop up the BTC prices for a while. Bye bye, 2.8 :)

PS: It's fun how everyone talks about this manipulator as if he's just one guy… Obviously it's the bitcoinman sachs group.

yeah its funny, keep watching.

its not funny if you're short Zhoutonged.

Last nights bid order in RED, todays in blue. You can clearly see him reinforcing the bidwalls under the spot price with ove 5K walls. This bastard manipulator is ruining our dreams of cheap bitcoins. Someone has to sell into him to take him down.

You can also notice that he removed his 26,322 bidwall at 2.5, and seemed to have spread it around to the other .05 increments. This guy seems to be playing with a limited amount of bitcoins. Again, he needs to be stopped. Bitcoins should be cheap and affordable for everyone.


Bid   2.1   778.5
Bid   2.15   2107.83
Bid   2.2   5060.48
Bid   2.25   3184.2
Bid   2.3   2480.02
Bid   2.35   2012.49
Bid   2.4   5923.39
Bid   2.45   5576.28
Bid   2.5   26322.9
Bid   2.55   2886.89
Bid   2.6   6318.72
Bid   2.65   7649.42
Bid   2.7   6683.69
Bid   2.75   2568.1
Bid   2.8   537.93


Bid   2.2   3206.44
Bid   2.25   3174.89
Bid   2.3   3352.13
Bid   2.35   1984.32
Bid   2.4   5667.52
Bid   2.45   4891.53
Bid   2.5   7052.89
Bid   2.55   3432.12
Bid   2.6   8232.7
Bid   2.65   7643.04
Bid   2.7   8682.27
Bid   2.75   6472.46
Bid   2.8   4255.54
Bid   2.85   689.34

i nominate you.

The price is going to climb slowly, spikes above 3.2, fluctuates a bit, spikes again, and then settles around 3.

Let's vote on it. I vote Edward50 too.

Just wait for the next guy taking a dump, too much greed ruins your profits.

Seems like the last three big spikes (i.e. 10k -15k BTC within an hour or so) have resulted in higher prices.  My sense is that the numbers of BTC acquired during these periods at least covers the native inflation of Bitcoin, and BTC has been raising in value since this started to occur.

It almost seems like some fairly big player(s) are sucking up BTC after a period of backfill.  Maybe they are playing the market and will dump at higher prices, but I could also imagine them sitting on their positions for the same reasons I sit on mine.

So basically, you know that you know nothing :)

No it's just the fact that if you have sufficient volume on mtgox you can suck them up once your pump has taken grip and dump them shortly after. Just wait.

This is very much the case, and I am happy to clarify that if there was anyone who was confused here.

I personally tend to write off anyone who does 'know' something pretty quickly and rarely regret doing so.

Fair enough :) It's funny to look at this bitcoinbullbear guy's site, and analyse what he actually predicted, and how much of it came (/didn't come) true. Basically, he's just good at looking back at his previous post, and wording things such, that it sounds like he predicted whatever happened. Does anyone actually have a subscription to his "short term alert" service? (I wouldn't pay a satoshi for it, but I'm wondering if it is actually of any use.)

No kidding, tell me about it.  Went short after a big spike yesterday and now I'm screwed Zhoutonged.  I've stayed away from Bitcoinica for a long time cuz the same thing happened to me last time dangit!

I've not used Bitcoinica (yet), but could you not just keep adding funds to your maintenance account?

Being liquidated means he's already forced to sell buy back his borrowed bitcoins at a higher price, so he already lost a lot of money. If he had seen this coming, he could indeed have added funds beforehand.

Edit: oops, thanks for the correction

It's my own fault for watching charts every day, seeing a spike up and predicting another plunge down like it has been doing over and over.  It's just funny to call it getting Zhoutonged when you go short and you screw up.

Anyone look at bitcoincharts recently?  Look at all those nice high, green volumes!  Looks like it's April all over again!

Thanks cypherdoc, that's indeed what I meant/should've written :)

I usually just watch the mtgox ticker. Most other exchanges follow that anyway.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=843&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=&i=Weekly&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&SubmitButton=Draw&

nope can't see it.

Let me help you with that.

http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/7710/yeahkt.png

It does not seem that the price has gone up so much and so fast that someone would get margin call unless they choose to be liquidated (or are woefully under-capitalized.)  Seems like most traders in this environment would just keep adding to their maintenance account to avoid this until things turn around.  That would be the smart move.  Right?

If they thought the market would be going down later, the smart thing is to add to their maintenance.
If they thought the market would only go up, the smart thing is to buy back as soon as possible (actually, as low as possible).

If a large spike caught them by surprise, they wouldn't do the smart thing. They'd be liquidated.

There's a lot of traders which are relatively new to things, so can get caught by surprise. I've also seen reports of being confused by the user interface, and being screwed by not taking into account the site's delay relative to mtgox. There have also been problems with system stalls and errors, but it seems they get treated properly by the owner.

Given that Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme in it's death throes, and so many people 'know' this, it seems like a no-brainer to keep on adding to a maintenance account.

People with sufficient foresight, and also convinced of this viewpoint, will be doing exactly that.

Doesn't necessarily mean the viewpoint is correct though.

On a totally unrelated note, that IS a rather cool address:

  1Ga9Dizn1p6ctGWausC1osLSrXFdioxide

Without consulting a periodic table, I think I see Gallium, Tungsten, Carbon, Strontium and Florine.  And sort of Zink, Gold, Osmium.  I'll have to look for such things in other addresses.

Thanks :D
Heh, never looked at it like that. With consulting a periodic table, I get:
1 Gallium 9D (iodine) (zinc) 1 (phosphorus) 6 (carbon) tG Tungsten (gold) (silicon) Carbon 1 (osmium) L Strontium X Fluorine dioxide.
Bracketed ones are with incorrect capitalization.

Too bad no one loves breathing though :P The only 0.001 BTC at that address is me testing it, IIRC :P

I've heard that people in Asia will pay an absurd amount of money for phone numbers with 'lucky' numbers and such.

Seems to me that Bitcoin addresses could be generated at a very fast rate.  There's a business opportunity for someone.

I wanted to test out my instawallet thingy so I just sent you a little something.

The problem is, once someone gives you a novelty address and its private key, that person also has your private key, so could steal your bitcoins if you put any on there. This makes it hard to generate any for someone else, unless this person really trusts you.

Thanks :D That's pretty awesome :) It shows up in the pending transactions (http://bitcoincharts.com/bitcoin/), so I guess your instawallet works :)

Not to be too droll about things, but that seems to be the opposite of a 'problem' for a good number of Bitcoin entrepreneurs these days.

But for the rest, how about this modification:

A utility which a user can run in the privacy of their own home which will look for magic addresses meeting some criteria of interest to the user.  Open source it, of course, to lower the paranoia about back doors.

Yes, I thought about that too. Actually it would be better to provide a site that gets you a novelty address, then allows you to upload your wallet.dat, they insert the novelty address into your wallet, and you can download it again.
This would be ideal.

This is actually a good idea, but has been done. It was a bit of a hype in June/July. I made my own generator, although samr7's version is much better: Vanitygen (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=25804.0)

Could someone with chemistry understanding tell me what is that molecule and any interesting facts about it please?

Price is going up again and it's 22:30 here on the West Coast.  I hope that people had the foresight to pump a little extra into those maintenance accounts before hitting the hay.  I guess we have another 10 or 15 cents before we hit the day's peak though.  I think it would put me in a bad mood for the rest of the day if I woke up to find my account liquidated.

The substance (know as 'outamyassimine') can crystallized and desiccated, then alloyed with unobtainium to create an emulsification which can catalyze and ultimately transmutate BTC into USD.

Some historical facts:
Outamyassimine was first named Imineoutamyass, but was generally ill-received as a name, and later changed to Outamyassimine to comply with common naming schemes.

Lol, OP was wrong.

Sargent Spike is never finished!

Yes. And bought a some thousand coins at 2.1

Never!

Well played then, well played.

i thought a 50% spike in the price is bad for Bitcoin?

Did anyone say it wasn't?

Holy crap, I'm right again!

It's not at 2 yet ;)

You will be right again. It only takes very little bitcoins to move the price. However, it is going to be very difficult to sustain higher prices as everybody will take advantge of the higher price and start dumping. Once the price starts to get lower people will dump as they want to cash out.

One of the best things lately. And that's why the Elliot Wave Theory that netrin and others placed here is real.

Down, down we go.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

My initial prediction of the price dropping from 20-25$ per bitcoin down to $5 was wrong, apparently.  There is less of a foundation in bitcoin's usability as a currency than even I, the most trollish bear, predicted.

Down, down we go :)  Bet you guys wish you had your cash in U.S. stock right now?  Ron Paul lead you astray?  Don't feel bad, don't cry too hard.

But...but....you said it was only going to go down to five!!!


http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HKjlXpb-k1I/SNBJoGyrf1I/AAAAAAAADtg/d5SMo1IYBdg/s320/crying-baby.jpg



Seriously tho, regardless of orientation.....I wouldn't touch stocks with a toxic waste handling robot right now. At least with bitcoin I am under no illusion about the risk involved, with stock...who the fuck knows at this point in time, might be good time for bargain hunting, might be too soon.....the tea leaves and charts will tell :p

With the price so low and the volume in dollars down, any significant trades now yank the price around by a substantial percentage.  That encourages manipulation. There's only about $250K of volume per day on Mt. Gox now, and much of that is 'bots running the same money back and forth.

Pink Sheet penny stocks show similar volatility when someone is playing them.

An alternate projection is that over time people with different means and agendas will supplant, as primary holders of the Bitcoin currency base, those who are impressed by a stack of fiat bills and pre-occupied by thoughts of the trinkets that that stack represents.  It will be much harder to shake these people out.

So you are basically saying people would start buying btc for another motive than greed?

Current projections are grim, way more grim than ever. The reason is that the hype cycle has failed to evolve into an idea, but rather it looks like a hyped business.  There might be some upside if we reach a somewhat stable region and a slight uptrend in the next couple of months.
But if there is another, smaller parabola it's over.

Not at all (though some may.)  Different people get greedy about different things.


In my opinion, the best thing that could happen for Bitcoin is that it lays low and remains off the radar until such time as it is actually needed.  I doubt that it will ever die of old age since it is to interesting to to many geeks.  Whether corpgov could do the deed I am not sure.  I actually doubt that they could at this time.  It also could get a terminal zero-day sickness, or be hit from within by development sabotage or splintering.

Was this it?

we spiked over 2.5...

There seems to be some resistance though, slowly down again? Or do you think it will go further?

Someone seems to be trying to push it, and there looks to be more in the way of support moving in.

From the candlesticks it looks like someone is pushing bidwalls higher and higher while getting hit by sells all the time. I don't exactly get why anybody would be doing this. Wouldn't a buyer want to buy at a lower price?

The market doesn't seems to want to go there but if someone has alot of cash he could push alot further.
Sigh, since when has pushing the price become the major part of market movements...

Looks more like someone simply bought 10k, and that made it rise.

Pushing price along is a profitable tactic if it's off far enough. If that person believes a BTC is worth over 4 USD, he will not care whether he buys at 2.4 or 2.6, he just wants to be faster than others to realise the opportunity.

I don't know whether it's smart right now, the huge seller two days ago kind of flooded the market. But generally, I agree. The price is rather low, so if one believes that is wrong, the exact buying tactics aren't super important, and pushing is the only way to make sure one gets the coins.

It's all about what a coin is really worth, as in speculation. Can't say that this particular move looked stupid.