Bitcoin Forum

Link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=49664.0

Possibilities:

1. Bitcoins become harder to buy - i.e. price goes up

2. Trust reduced - price goes down.

3. Bitcoin will be regulated and legal - more trust - price goes up

4. Bitcoin will be regulated and legal - SilkRoad closes - price goes down

We're looking for more buyers to drive the price up.  Making bitcoins harder to buy can only make the price fall as liquidity disappears from the market, and those left holding bitcoins wonder if they can readily find a buyer in the near future.  It's only European accounts and not US, but still, it's a fair chunk of cash.

Does not compute.
If less people buy bitcoins their price DROP.


How are the 2 things related? Even if some government make some laws about bitcoin, it will NOT change it. It will stay anonymous and free, no matter what. That's why it was created, to resist regulamentations attempt.  

No one is "responsible" for regulating Bitcoin, since any transaction could have happened anywhere on the world. Also, nobody really wants it regulated, apart maybe for taxation reasons. And those haven't proven a very good motivation for political change so far. I don't see a government putting all too much effort into that.

I guess a delay in the ability to buy BTC will mean what the speculators make out of it. If someone really wants to get BTC, he will find a way, and there's no real handle to deny the right to buy them.

BTW, I'm from Europe and this isn't the first time this happens. So far, Gox figured out a way to fix it somehow. If they don't, well, one more reason why fiat money systems are vastly inferior to Bitcoin.

Oh man yeah  ??? ??? ???

and what if they make the drugs illegal too  ??? ??? ???

what will you smoke before you post?

Is it not clear that SR doesn't care about 'regulations'? Am I on drugs?

Well it's not entirely true they wouldn't care about regulations. The ban on drugs actually protects their niche.
If drugs are legalized in some of their markets, then legal competitors may provide the same service cheaper and more conveniently.

Maybe not on drugs - but apparently rather frustrated.  What happened?

Anyway - just use your imagination.

HAHAHA ROFLCOPTER ROFLCOPTER.

I would love to see someone try to "Regulate" or "Tax" bitcoins.  ::)

Good luck keeping track of that ginoumous block chain! hahahaha bwaaaahahahaha.

Re: European bank accounts of exchanges are frozen


“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

 Mahatma Gandhi

You also can use intersango or bitmarket. I usually do my business at bitmarket when SEPA transfers are frozen at TradeHill/MtGox (which happens very often).

Note that we are mining at 4/5 blocks per hour so (theoretically) there are also less bitcoins coming into the market :)

They can regulate exchanges, they can regulate the coders.  You think you are safe behind your cryptography Maginot Line - but it's only your limited imagination.  

I don't say I am surprised - but it certainly is disconcerting to see that the subject of potential weaknesses of the bitcoin system is such a taboo here.

Having lived several years in a country where Marijuana and hashish are legal I'll have to agree with you on the convenience but disagree on the price. Drugs are always cheaper on the blackmarket, and when I say cheaper I say at least 3x cheaper... Silk Road is expensive and only geeks that know nothing about real life will buy anything there...

Must have been in extreme state of mind. But always it bothers me when people are like "Oh, x will be regulated/outlawed and then close". Obviously not the case. And double dumb when talking about an entity that is already shirking laws. Okay, maybe SR decided it cares about regs on bitcoin use even though they don't care about regs on drugs, but 100% chance someone else will come along to profit by ignoring the laws.

solidcoin on the other hand...

It is still possible to send/receive money from/to europe, now without the cheap SEPA possibility it cost more fees - thats all.

you have to use the 'international wire' option at mtgox.

its a IBAN/SWIFT way, usually very fast (1-2 hours total on a businessday for my IBAN/SWIFT withdraws) but banking fees on both sides.

if you want to withdraw big money (>10.000 US$) its quite NO PROBLEM. Fees are together (both sides) about 45 US$.

German experiences. Germany is a country where transfers from one account to another IN THE SAME BANK can take 3 days.

I transferred some money from UBS in Switzerland to MtGox's account in Hongkong the other day. Took 3 hours and cost about CHF 12. Almost up to Bitcoin standards.

It's not just this anymore. Intersango HSBC account got frozen, which I think is a serious development. All of this combined with how easily the rally was killed, I have to say that the short term and mid term price development is VERY bearish.

I'm out and I'm not even thinking about new entry points until we have some good news related to the bank account fiasco. I do think that Bitcoin will do just fine without the banks, but the mainstream potential is all but killed if the exchanges don't get the appropriate licences and accept regulation.

And if the mainstream potential is damaged like this, I'm definitely not thinking about buying coins at $3.x or even at $2.x. We're going deep down in that case and when we're there I'll consider buying again.

These are very interesting times, I've always based my positive outlook in three fundamental factors which are functionality, reliability and legality. Those fundamental factors don't look very solid right now with what's happening, so I'm waiting for good news before I can even think about buying coins again.

i've always just used wires.

I put a good percentage of my outlook for Bitcoin on 'need'.

Right now there really is not much need for Bitcoin because, for all intents and purposes, the USD, EURO, etc are actually working fine for Joe Sixpack.  There is a limited (but not zero) need for some of the properties that BTC has which, I hope, will sustain the system for the time being.

The best case scenario is that the USD, EURO, etc will never have any problems and it will be blue skies forever.  I personally find that unlikely...our state sponsored monetary systems 'feel' to me like an airplane which is near stall speed (though I've been thinking that for a decade now...)  If there are problems I could see Bitcoin being a very useful thing to have in one's back pocket.

+1

I agree with this. I'm not abandoning Bitcoin, on the contrary. I simply think that if exchanging USD/EUR to BTC gets more difficult than it is now, we won't be able to sustain the current price. That's why I'd be very caucious of buying coins right now, but I have no doubt that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general will be very useful in some ways, for a long time to come.

And I haven't sold all my coins, I always have some in my desktop wallet and my mobile phone for day-to-day use. Not that I use Bitcoin every day, but I do occasionally. And I recently ordered a good amount of casascius coins, which I think are just excellent as collection items and long term investments. I intend to use them as savings gifts as well, to get people I know interested in Bitcoin.

But again as long as the main exchanges are having serious problems with their bank connections, painting a positive picture about Bitcoin, especially when we've had a massive price crash, is a bit difficult. And I live in Finland so convenient European bank transfers are very important, depositing small amounts using wire transfers is unacceptable. And most people deposit small amounts.

I agree with you.

And also: Exchanging fiat <--> must be much more secure and easier for everybody.

If I felt that that was a requirement (vs. a nice-to-have), I would consider Bitcoin to be walking dead.  Any maybe it is.  Who knows?

I don't think it's a requirement for Bitcoin to function, especially with the possibilities of decentralized p2p dark exchanges, and of course there are other methods as well. But if exchanging isn't 1) very secure and 2) very easy, it will stop Bitcoin adoption entirely. There will still be small adoption from certain segments but anyone who's a "regular joe" is not going to have anything to do with Bitcoin.

And this will mean that Bitcoin will remain as a niche of a niche. Which also means that one Bitcoin will not be worth very much when people realize this, because the value of Bitcoins is mostly supported by speculative demand.

That's the worst case. What I'm certainly hoping for is that the exchanges get proper licences, accept regulation and start to be more reliable. It's totally unacceptable that we have exchanges announcing every week that "deposit method x is unavailable". This is not how reliable exchanges work. I'm expecting big, positive announcements from the main exchanges during November. If not, I will be disappointed and remain bearish.

But would you expect regulatory authorities to be impartial and fair to Bitcoin exchanges?  look what happened to Amir Taaki and Intersango.  he says the bankers have led him on and cost him thousands in his attempt to become accepted into the shark club.  i don't think it happens and even if it did, a year from acceptance he could be shut down.

More and more this whole 'go mainstream' thing reminds me of Jemima Puddle Duck:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Tale_of_Jemima_Puddle-Duck

...where Bitcoin is Jemima...

This is a good point and I honestly don't know anything regarding the details of bank and money exchange regulation in Europe. But I'm very skeptical of stories about the "elite banking cartel" shutting down Bitcoin exchanges. To them Bitcoin is currently entirely insignificant. What I'm seeing here is amateur players (the exchanges) trying to do something which is not in line with European rules and regulations. It's most likely that simple. Either they get in line or they will continue to have major issues.

As of now the exchanges completely deserve getting bank accounts frozen, it's 100% their fault if they're not following the regulations. I call bullshit on any claims that the banks are trying to discredit Bitcoin intentionally, most likely they're simply unsure of the legal status it has or will have in the EU. Bitcoin is way too small to be a threat to the banking business at the moment.

If there really is this prestigious club you must enter to do anything and people like Amir are being fucked over, everyone in the Bitcoin community needs to know. And there must be proof. That would be a completely outrage. This is the first time I've heard about this but my view in general is that the exchanges are way over their heads and need to put serious resources into these matters.

There is going mainstream and going nowhere. When I talk about going mainstream I don't mean challenging the banks, PayPal, Visa and Mastercard. That would require much, much more than simply reliable exchanges. What I mean is that for Bitcoin to go anywhere other than the dreams of liberal/anarchist geeks, exchanging has to be something other than underground message boards or face to face deals, or even a decentralized p2p dark exchange.

I'm not saying Bitcoin wouldn't work because it would still have usage and small demand. But any large growth would be out of the question. That scenario is not the death of Bitcoin but it would stay very small.

Overall I'm optimistic concerning this issue, for many reasons. I don't believe evil bankers are intentionally trying to kill Bitcoin. And I believe it's in the best interest of the exchanges (more customers, more transactions and more profit) to find out how their customers can deposit and withdraw in ways that are legal, reliable, easy, fast and cheap. So I think that if the exchanges know what's best for them, they will do everything they can to solve this problem.

I would and do like to see some amount of impulse driving development of these 'dark grey' modes of operation.  OTOH, I also like the warm fuzzy safety of 'mainstream' exchanges and it is the primary method I use to obtain BTC at this time.


It is my nature to try to step back and ask myself 'so what'?  When I do so here, I see some legitimate arguments that such a scenerio is actually just fine for some of the following reasons:

 - less motivation to attack the system by those who might find it to be competition.

 - more time for the system to be field tested and hardened.

 - more of the currency base likely to be sucked up by people with a general interest vs. those trying to make a quick buck.

 - participants less likely to be ripped off (as they would tend to be more knowledgeable.)

I've not invested anything that I cannot afford to lose, and my expectation for a pay-off for this (or most of my other 'investments') is measured in years or decades.  This probably shapes my philosophy and makes it differ from your run-of-the-mill day-trader.


I'm optimistic enough to hold the BTC I have and probably to accumulate more as the opportunities present themselves, and to put some effort into certain developments associated with Bitcoin.  If it goes well and everything is rosy trading chips between official debt-based systems and Bitcoin, great.  If there are problems in this area, Bitcoin may do OK anyway.  I still consider the most likely scenerio as one being where Bitcoin fails completely for one of a number of possible reasons.  I'm prepared for that, but am also prepared to fight against that happening.

I agree.

You make good points here, I also see the potential benefits of staying small. But then again I'm a starting Bitcoin enterpreneur and my business is not going to do very well if Bitcoin goes more underground. In fact it must grow during the next few years for my business to survive. I know that Bitcoin is not there to take care of my business, but what I'm going to be doing is core services for Bitcoin users and companies/organizations that want to start accepting Bitcoin.

But I have a strong feeling that if Bitcoin is going to go somewhere, it'll happen within the next 2 years. We'll see how it goes, our first real challenge has been the security of core 3rd party services which is an ongoing effort. I call moderate success on that one. The second challenge which is in my opinion a bigger one, is how to handle money exchange in a way that'll be legal and reliable in the long term.

I haven't invested anything I can't afford to lose either. I'm actually not a day-trader at all, although I've been trading quite a bit recently. This is simply because of the instability of Bitcoin's value. If the price can drop 50% just like that, and it still can, I have to consider the fact that if I buy when it's 50% down, I then hold double the Bitcoins. So my strategy for investing in coins is actually very long term, the same strategy as I have for my gold investments. But recently I've decided to trade until I see sufficient confirmations that the price has indeed reached a long-term bottom. When that happens I'm back to a long-term strategy.

My interests in Bitcoin are far and wide. I have mining rigs and I'm investing and occasionally trading as well. And as I already said I'm starting a Bitcoin company right now, which will be a company based in Finland and focusing on Finland but it will also compete internationally in some aspects of the business. My idea is to build a community site for Bitcoin users (Finnish users in the beginning) and provide core services similar to bitpay and get-bitcoin.com. I will also be a seller of goods such as Bitcoin-related t-shirts and my plan is to be a local casascius reseller. And this is only what I have in mind for 2012, who knows what I'll come up with in a few years if Bitcoin doesn't die out :)

+1

I think that cryptocurrencies are not going away, but it's not certain if Bitcoin, as the first real implementation, is going to be the cryptocurrency in the long term. It has the distinct advantage of being well known and the first, so it has a good chance of succeeding as long as it stays reliable in a technical sense.

So the exchanges can just go underground and host on i2p or TOR, Kinda hard to regulate a website when you dont know where the hell its even hosted lol.

Regulate the coders? now thats funny.

I feel pretty safe with bitcoin.