Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin => Mining speculation => Topic started by: HarryGrigor on September 02, 2018, 11:28:59 PM



Title: BTC hashrate changes
Post by: HarryGrigor on September 02, 2018, 11:28:59 PM
Hello guys.
Did you notices big BTC hashrate jumps? 10-15 phs?
Where they come? At first I thought that people just turn off rheir miners, but now BTC is 7300 and hashrate is going down... Why?


Title: Re: BTC hashrate changes
Post by: whohackedme on September 03, 2018, 01:01:40 AM
BCH became more profitable to mine for a while.  Now it is about even

Fork.lol


Title: Re: BTC hashrate changes
Post by: HarryGrigor on September 03, 2018, 01:49:21 AM
nope, BCH total hasrate is 4-5 phs, but "jump" is about 10-15 phs


Title: Re: BTC hashrate changes
Post by: bill gator on September 03, 2018, 01:55:25 AM
There are many people with very large farms and there are more factors that we could hope to account for in a single thread, post or explanation that would even touch the tip of the iceberg for why the hashrate is constantly changing. I mean, there could be an earthquake, a flood, a thunderstorm, a power outage, a fire or other natural disaster that would take a big farm offline (or multiple large farms). Equipment needs maintenance, replacement, updating and more often it just simply crashes. The explanations go on and on, but the short answer is that people are joining and leaving the network. Potentially switching algorithms, benchmarking, testing different parameters and effects.


Title: Re: BTC hashrate changes
Post by: os2sam on September 03, 2018, 02:04:01 AM
nope, BCH total hasrate is 4-5 phs, but "jump" is about 10-15 phs

10 to 15 PHs is not even a drop in the bucket compared to the network hash rate.

Also keep in mind nobody really knows what the network hash rate really is.  It's just an estimate based on the block find rate.  A run of good or bad luck can skew the hash rate estimate significantly.


Title: Re: BTC hashrate changes
Post by: Miner159 on September 03, 2018, 05:51:02 AM
10 to 15 PHs is not even a drop in the bucket compared to the network hash rate.

Also keep in mind nobody really knows what the network hash rate really is.  It's just an estimate based on the block find rate.  A run of good or bad luck can skew the hash rate estimate significantly.

Can you please explain how the hashrate is being calculated? I always thought that it is accurate. 15PH hashrate equals 1M S9's (~600M USD), and i couldn't believe how can someone turn on 1M ASICS in 1 day.


Title: Re: BTC hashrate changes
Post by: bill gator on September 03, 2018, 10:32:50 AM
someone

I think that is where you are driving yourself crazy. You're assuming that it's a someone, rather than a bunch of people. You have to think about the sheer volume of miners, farms and rigs that are set-up around the world. There is almost never a moment where someone is turning off their rig that someone else isn't doing the same and the opposite. It would be impossible to narrow it down to one person or one reason. As previously said, "It's just an estimate based on the block find rate." which has a luck factor to it and therefore cannot be entirely accurate.


Title: Re: BTC hashrate changes
Post by: ryan_975 on September 03, 2018, 10:40:55 AM
You basically take formula for the average time it should take to find a block for a given hash rate and difficulty

Code:
Time = difficulty * 2^32 / hashrate

 and rearrange it to solve for the average hash rate needed to find a block in the amount of time it actually took at the current difficulty. 

Code:
Hashrate = difficulty * 2^32 / Time


Since difficulty is set using a specific time (10 minutes), if the next block is found in 2 minutes, it would indicate that the network had five times more hashing power than needed for a 10 minute block.  Conversely, a 20 minute block would indicate half the hashing power is on the network.  However, finding a block is mostly luck. So knowing how much hashing power there truly is on the network can never be known.


Title: Re: BTC hashrate changes
Post by: os2sam on September 03, 2018, 03:07:46 PM
15PH hashrate equals 1M S9's (~600M USD), and i couldn't believe how can someone turn on 1M ASICS in 1 day.

15 PHs is 15,000 THs.  15,000THs/14THs = 1071

Are you calling "M" One Thousand?


Title: Re: BTC hashrate changes
Post by: Miner159 on September 03, 2018, 07:02:05 PM
15 PHs is 15,000 THs.  15,000THs/14THs = 1071

Are you calling "M" One Thousand?

I meant EHs, the jump in hashrate was around 15,000,000Ths.


Title: Re: BTC hashrate changes
Post by: MagicByt3 on September 03, 2018, 10:31:09 PM
I am more wondering what this sudden spike that vanished was?

New miners chips being tested?
As this jump is unparalleled at any other time in the network..

https://statoshi.info/dashboard/db/mining

https://i.imgur.com/tqeb9V1.png (https://i.imgur.com/tqeb9V1.png)


Title: Re: BTC hashrate changes
Post by: philipma1957 on September 03, 2018, 11:30:39 PM
a quick spike has no meaning.

basically bch and btc can move back and forth in under 30 seconds with switching.

and even if that is not the case a 25 block hot streak can happen at any time  which will cause a false spike.

here is all you need to know

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator

at 4 cent power  a 450 usd s9 with a psu pays off in 270 days
that is 2% growth
at 3 % growth  it pays off in 423 days

so as long as bitmain keeps selling s9 with a psu cheap  diff will grow.

so 3  and 4 cent power people are putting in a lot of money.

I have been approached about a 100mega watt build and a 70 megawatt build

along with 5 megawatt contracts at 5 cents. (too rich for my blood)


Title: Re: BTC hashrate changes
Post by: fanatic26_ on September 04, 2018, 03:24:42 PM
Most large farms run auto switching pools now, if BCH is more popular, the whole farm is mining it, when profitability drops, people cut back.


Title: Re: BTC hashrate changes
Post by: philipma1957 on September 04, 2018, 04:10:39 PM
Most large farms run auto switching pools now, if BCH is more popular, the whole farm is mining it, when profitability drops, people cut back.

exactly this.   and any extended hot streak  ie 30 blocks in  2 hours  vs 5 hours  can alter hash rates

or cold streak  1 block in 2 hours .


or better yet 1 block in 2 hours followed by 30 blocks in 2 hours  will make a  spike.


Title: Re: BTC hashrate changes
Post by: gentlemand on September 08, 2018, 12:28:52 AM
exactly this.   and any extended hot streak  ie 30 blocks in  2 hours  vs 5 hours  can alter hash rates

or cold streak  1 block in 2 hours .


or better yet 1 block in 2 hours followed by 30 blocks in 2 hours  will make a  spike.

I would like to be walked through this.

Are the coin prices automatically fed into the coin switching program? And how rapidly would they be able to sell what they mine?

I presume it all hangs on price and how quickly you can dispose of it. It's not much use if you sell once at the end of the week. Whatever spike you benefited from might have evaporated in terms of price by then.


Title: Re: BTC hashrate changes
Post by: pigfrown on September 08, 2018, 10:20:44 AM
Are the coin prices automatically fed into the coin switching program? And how rapidly would they be able to sell what they mine?

I presume it all hangs on price and how quickly you can dispose of it. It's not much use if you sell once at the end of the week. Whatever spike you benefited from might have evaporated in terms of price by then.

You can't spend the reward from a mined block until 100 blocks have been mined on top of it. At 10 minute block times that means you can't spend your mined coin for 16.7 hours. Assuming you have enough hashrate to get daily pool payouts, you could certainly mine a coin and sell it the same day to lock in profits. You would have to have a lot of hashrate to make this worthwhile though.