Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: dancupid on October 28, 2011, 02:34:15 PM



Title: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: dancupid on October 28, 2011, 02:34:15 PM
Looks like May may have had more (I'm too lazy to do a custom time thing) , but I can't help feeling bullish.


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: ineededausername on October 28, 2011, 02:39:49 PM
Yeah, if you look at bitcoincharts 1day, the pattern is clear.  From June to now, we had lots of red but it appears to be over.
edit: Here's a striking picture:
http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/5141/upagain.png


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: speeder on October 28, 2011, 02:58:45 PM
Using other charts, it looks we will have a short term rally, but still bull.

Using elliot wave theory, I would suggest we are in  "B" state, when we have a minor rally before the final downward direction.


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: BTCurious on October 28, 2011, 03:54:33 PM
I believe ineededausername showed the situation quite clearly, but if you need any extra proof that the trend is up, then this graph is undeniable:

http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/3092/yeah7.png


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: cbeast on October 28, 2011, 04:14:21 PM
Using other charts, it looks we will have a short term rally, but still bull.

Using elliot wave theory, I would suggest we are in  "B" state, when we have a minor rally before the final downward direction.

So what does Elliot Wave theory say about this "final downward direction." What is the finality?


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: Technomage on October 28, 2011, 04:20:06 PM
The situation is very interesting right now. $2 has shown very strong support and the last fall actually stopped at $2.5 which made the $2.x range much stronger. On the other hand, the last rally couldn't break $3.5 and so far this one hasn't either.

When either $2.5 or $3.5 breaks decisively, I think we'll see significant movement in that direction. Right now we are seeing bullish behaviour and we could be seeing a test of $3.5 in the near future.

I do like the fact that the price has been relatively stable. This is very nice for a change. Massive rallies is not what Bitcoin needs because they will overshoot big time, leading in a crash right away or much later. A relatively stable price with moderate ups and downs and slow climbing periods is much preferable.

But the market is still so small, I do think that when Bitcoin is ready to take off again it will take off like a rocket. Maybe not as fast of a rocket as last time, but it will be a crazy ride nonetheless.

I'm curious to see if we'll actually have a final crash to a new low in the next few months or if $2.04 really was the low. Many people are expecting this "super crash" to happen but I'm starting to be a bit doubtful about that. We've had plenty of situations where people could panic sell massively, Bitcoin has steadily gone from bad to worse price-wise. But there has been none of that, the biggest Mt. Gox volume is still around 200k which is not that much really.

And people will not be any more eager to panic sell at $2 or $1.5. That's not going to happen. In fact most people I know have stopped selling entirely because it's not worth it anymore. If you think Bitcoin is going to go up eventually it's kinda stupid to sell at these price levels. The price isn't the number one indicator of how healthy Bitcoin really is, not for people who really think Bitcoin is a great thing. And those people are all that matters in the end. Speculators can sell all the coins they have for all I care.


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: dancupid on October 28, 2011, 04:25:27 PM
I believe ineededausername showed the situation quite clearly, but if you need any extra proof that the trend is up, then this graph is undeniable:

http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/3092/yeah7.png

Do you have something a bit more logarithmic? I'm only interested in those logarithms. I'm very much a logarithm sort of guy


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: Technomage on October 28, 2011, 04:38:00 PM
From my personal trading experiences of late I've felt safe trading in the lower $2.x range because I'm perfectly willing to hold long from that point on even if there is a big crash and I'm unable to short sell profitably. I think a lot of people share this view which is why the $2.x is getting stronger and stronger, especially the $2.0 - $2.5 range.

There's also the fact that small and medium players in the market can buy so much more with a certain amount of fiat money when the price is that low. But there's a big difference between $2 and $3, 50% actually, so right now we're at a totally different price range. That's why it has been difficult to advance from lower $3.x range.

And as I already said selling gets extremely unattractive the lower we go. It's true that I've said this in the past as well, but the truth is that the demand for Bitcoins in dollars was only carried by hype, the price was way over the top compared to "real" demand. Now we are at such price levels where the speculative demand is much closer to actual demand from real Bitcoin economy. The price will never actually reach the real trade demand but the closer it gets the less is needed from speculative demand to sustain the price.

Even if real trade demand is just 10-20% of current price, we only need 5-10 times speculative demand to sustain it. Compare that to a price of $6 where we need 10-20 times speculative demand to sustain the price. And for $12 we need 20-40 times. For $24 we need 40-80 times. This is really important actually. The further we go from real trade demand the less sustainable and less stable the price will be. This is why I don't want to go back to 100 times trade demand again, it's not healthy.

A much better scenario is that the Bitcoin economy slowly grows and the speculative demand multiplier stays at relatively sane levels. We'll see if it does because it's fairly easy to see how the real economy grows. There are many indicators for that which at least give us a loose picture. If the price is increasing much faster, then we're simply seeing the speculative demand grow massively which is not sustainable.


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: SgtSpike on October 28, 2011, 04:39:53 PM
I'm just glad difficulty is dropping like a rock so I can get back to mining!


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: speeder on October 28, 2011, 04:51:56 PM
Using other charts, it looks we will have a short term rally, but still bull.

Using elliot wave theory, I would suggest we are in  "B" state, when we have a minor rally before the final downward direction.

So what does Elliot Wave theory say about this "final downward direction." What is the finality?

final I mean final of a cycle.

It is in B (ie: a last rise before the last crash).

Then it will go C (the last crash)

Then it will start all over again (rally I, crash II, rally III, crash IV, rally V. with either III or V reaching a new peak, beyond 30... then we have crash A, rally B and crash C again, repeat...)


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: Technomage on October 28, 2011, 05:00:34 PM
We'll see. I'm definitely intrigued but I wouldn't be surprised if the Elliot Wave theory doesn't quite work out as people expect. But If it does go like that I'll certainly be a believer and take it more seriously in the future :)

That kind of movement does make sense to me on some level so I'm somewhat prepared for it in my trading strategy. But I'm also prepared for the alternate which is that the theory doesn't quite apply to Bitcoin in the way people think it will. Or that it does but we're in a different phase than most people think. That's another possibility.


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: cbeast on October 28, 2011, 05:02:59 PM
We'll see. I'm definitely intrigued but I wouldn't be surprised if the Elliot Wave theory doesn't quite work out as people expect. But If it does go like that I'll certainly be a believer and take it more seriously in the future :)

That kind of movement does make sense to me on some level so I'm somewhat prepared for it in my trading strategy. But I'm also prepared for the alternate which is that the theory doesn't quite apply to Bitcoin in the way people think it will.

Right, I think Bitcoin follows traditional patterns to a point, but will eventually break the forces holding within traditional frameworks.


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: BTCurious on October 28, 2011, 06:10:10 PM
Do you have something a bit more logarithmic? I'm only interested in those logarithms. I'm very much a logarithm sort of guy
Of course! I had to make this in excel, because bitcoincharts doesn't support the proper kind of log plot, but anyway:
http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/7620/yeah8.png
You can see the logarithmic scale on the horizontal axis.
This analysis shows that bitcoin will forever stay at this exchange rate, never moving again. The decreasing fluctuations and increasing stability are obvious, even if you don't have the traders' eye.
I hope this helped!


Dang, making this plot took way too long >_<


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: bitclown on October 29, 2011, 01:56:34 AM
Another indicator is hater activity. When things look grim they come out of their cave to rub it in our face, but when there's positive development they're more hesitant to reiterate their doom and gloom prophesy.

http://i.imgur.com/HRFy0.png


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: gewure on October 29, 2011, 02:37:59 AM
nice charts :)


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: bitfoo on October 29, 2011, 04:13:36 AM
Another indicator is hater activity. When things look grim they come out of their cave to rub it in our face, but when there's positive development they're more hesitant to reiterate their doom and gloom prophesy.

http://i.imgur.com/HRFy0.png

Loved the graph, sent some bit-cents!


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: cypherdoc on October 29, 2011, 05:02:42 AM
Another indicator is hater activity. When things look grim they come out of their cave to rub it in our face, but when there's positive development they're more hesitant to reiterate their doom and gloom prophesy.

http://i.imgur.com/HRFy0.png

oh Man, this is great!  made my day, Sir!


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: S3052 on October 29, 2011, 07:38:35 AM
Great. Let's call it the bitnagle sentiment indicator.
:-)


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: Cluster2k on October 29, 2011, 08:25:05 AM
$3.75!  We're well on our way back to $10+!  I can feel it, the boom is here and it's only going to get stronger.

Maybe....


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: Technomage on October 29, 2011, 09:47:50 AM
I wouldn't be calling $10 just now but I have a feeling you weren't completely serious. I do think that a mid term reversal is confirmed if we have a clear breakout over $4. Going over $3.5 was already a strong indicator.

At $4.1 we would've experienced a 100% price increase from the bottom of 2.04. If that's not a reversal, nothing is. Currently it takes only around $35 000 to break 4.1. People are afraid to sell because the market is so bullish. All the signs for a real reversal are here.


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: Bigpiggy01 on October 29, 2011, 10:15:01 AM
Quote
At $4.1 we would've experienced a 100% price increase from the bottom of 2.04. If that's not a reversal, nothing is. Currently it takes only around $35 000 to break 4.1. People are afraid to sell because the market is so bullish. All the signs for a real reversal are here.


If we hit 4.1 for more than just a blip we'll have pushed back into long term uptrend territory  ;D


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: Gabi on October 29, 2011, 04:27:23 PM
Time to bring back the best graph around

http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/7705/4bbid.png


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: netrin on October 29, 2011, 05:55:58 PM
Then it will start all over again (rally I, crash II, rally III, crash IV, rally V. with either III or V reaching a new peak, beyond 30... then we have crash A, rally B and crash C again, repeat...)

Wave I began at zero so our II crash carries that same fear. Wave III, even if it crosses gold parity and IV drops to silver, will not likely produce the same panic. Major wave "II", should it exist after this II then III, IV, V are over in say 2016, will appear to be stable, even if it slowly declines, much like the reserve currencies or fortune 500.

I'm curious to see if we'll actually have a final crash to a new low in the next few months or if $2.04 really was the low. Many people are expecting this "super crash" to happen but I'm starting to be a bit doubtful about that. We've had plenty of situations where people could panic sell massively, Bitcoin has steadily gone from bad to worse price-wise. But there has been none of that, the biggest Mt. Gox volume is still around 200k which is not that much really.

Technomage, after the flaming mortal decent of II, upon the Gates of the third wave of HELLL, it reads:

Through me you pass into the city of woe:
Through me you pass into eternal pain:
Through me among the people lost for aye.

Justice the founder of my fabric mov'd:
To rear me was the task of power divine,
Supremest wisdom, and primeval love.

Before me things create were none, save things
Eternal, and eternal I endure.
All hope abandon ye who enter here.

Such characters in colour dim I mark'd
Over a portal's lofty arch inscrib'd:
Whereat I thus: Master, these words import.


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: BTCurious on October 29, 2011, 05:57:23 PM
Through me you pass into the city of woe:
Through me you pass into eternal pain:
Through me among the people lost for aye.

Justice the founder of my fabric mov'd:
To rear me was the task of power divine,
Supremest wisdom, and primeval love.

Before me things create were none, save things
Eternal, and eternal I endure.
All hope abandon ye who enter here.

Such characters in colour dim I mark'd
Over a portal's lofty arch inscrib'd:
Whereat I thus: Master, these words import.
Bitcoin forecasting is becoming more and more the realm of the dark arts…


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: netrin on October 29, 2011, 06:03:12 PM
We talk price first and then justify it later. The price determines our expectations. We are not reacting to news, such as the encrypted wallet, new bitcoin services, court cases in France. We are only slaves of the price, slaves of each other. Herdthink.

Technomage is correct, that when we are too exhausted to care about the price, then it will slowly climb. This is what he says, but this is not what has happened. We HOPE the price will rise because we FEEL it has gone too low. I'm waiting for APATHY and DISGUST.

Not when Nagle says "I told you so" but when Gavin says "maybe Nagle was right".


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: BTCurious on October 29, 2011, 06:05:11 PM
1st RULE: You do not talk about forecasting.
2nd RULE: You DO NOT talk about forecasting.
34th RULE: Errr....


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: gewure on November 03, 2011, 06:20:39 AM
@netrin:

since i am very new to this forum and bitcoin at all, i might have a more objective view on the sentiments of the bitcoin-community..
my observation so far: despair, zynism, all-hope-is-gone is in the game already, while there seems to be a steady input of people like me, who see low prices in BTC (compared to what they used to be some months ago) and are very optimistic and enthusiastic cause of this. so basically there are the depressed people who participated in the bubble and keep suffering since and new optimistic bullish people like me.

so it seems to me, as if a critical low point has already happened.. i also think it does not really matter if prices fall any deeper, cause either they now continue slowly to climb, or fall once deep and then shoot up high and then continue to climb or stay at theire usefull level.

another posts names pretty good what i intend to say: "Bitcoin is approaching its usefull value"



Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: zby on November 03, 2011, 09:19:51 AM
@netrin:

since i am very new to this forum and bitcoin at all, i might have a more objective view on the sentiments of the bitcoin-community..
my observation so far: despair, zynism, all-hope-is-gone is in the game already, while there seems to be a steady input of people like me, who see low prices in BTC (compared to what they used to be some months ago) and are very optimistic and enthusiastic cause of this. so basically there are the depressed people who participated in the bubble and keep suffering since and new optimistic bullish people like me.

so it seems to me, as if a critical low point has already happened.. i also think it does not really matter if prices fall any deeper, cause either they now continue slowly to climb, or fall once deep and then shoot up high and then continue to climb or stay at theire usefull level.

another posts names pretty good what i intend to say: "Bitcoin is approaching its usefull value"



The value of the service of the Bitcoin system is still below the costs.  What is the value of money that can be spent in just one restaurant in New York?  There are maybe a couple of special cases where Bitcoin is useful now - Silk Road and someone reported that it is the only mean of making fast money transfers to China (but who knows if he is right, and for example here in Poland we already have a system of instant money transfers between bank accounts with just a minimal fee) - but I would speculate that it's value is even lower than the value of man-hours spent on this forum alone, not even counting the hours spent on the exchanges and the effort of the software developers and what with the electricity spent on mining?  Bitcoin's useful value is way below zero now.  But don't read this too hastily - all money systems require the network effect to work - once a threshold is reached the value will shoot up quickly - that's what everyone speculates about and that's why they are willing to pay more then 0 for bitcoins now.


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: Sargasm on November 03, 2011, 01:29:20 PM
I'm kind of feeling the same way.  I feel like there should be an upward push on pricing from miners that want to turn a profit on their rigs.

Myself, for instance, I am not liquidating my BTC I mine.  I feel that I can get more and intend only to transfer BTC out of the commodity when the price has reached equilibrium.  I would imagine the basal equilibrium would be a combination of depreciated hardware values + ongoing electrical cost with a slight margin for profitability.

Of course if such an equilibrium exists, it'd be somewhere below the ideal point for those that paid full retail for their mining equipment and somewhere above ideal for those that paid the lowest dollar possible.


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: BTCurious on November 03, 2011, 01:32:33 PM
Of course if such an equilibrium exists, it'd be somewhere below the ideal point for those that paid full retail for their mining equipment and somewhere above ideal for those that paid the lowest dollar possible.
Using that reasoning, it might be just above ~0, if you take into account people with free electricity.


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: old_engineer on November 03, 2011, 05:05:14 PM
What innovative graphs!

@bitclown: We experience time on a logarithmic scale, which is why our later years seem to fly by so much faster than the earlier years.  And when bitcoin values are stable, we all get bored and time seem to last forever, which your graph makes clear.

@btcurious - LOL, that's hilarious!  Trolling the trolls, always a good time.


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: SgtSpike on November 03, 2011, 08:09:07 PM
I'm kind of feeling the same way.  I feel like there should be an upward push on pricing from miners that want to turn a profit on their rigs.

Myself, for instance, I am not liquidating my BTC I mine.  I feel that I can get more and intend only to transfer BTC out of the commodity when the price has reached equilibrium.  I would imagine the basal equilibrium would be a combination of depreciated hardware values + ongoing electrical cost with a slight margin for profitability.

Of course if such an equilibrium exists, it'd be somewhere below the ideal point for those that paid full retail for their mining equipment and somewhere above ideal for those that paid the lowest dollar possible.
There IS an upward push on pricing from miners.  And most miners DO still turn a profit on their rigs.

So...  ???


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: zby on November 04, 2011, 07:56:00 AM
There IS an upward push on pricing from miners.  And most miners DO still turn a profit on their rigs.

So...  ???

You've got me here - how can miners push up when all they do is producing bitcoins?  Or do you say that today all miners are automatically also buyers now because the prices are so low that buying is cheaper then mining.


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: zby on November 04, 2011, 05:50:05 PM
There IS an upward push on pricing from miners.  And most miners DO still turn a profit on their rigs.

So...  ???

You've got me here - how can miners push up when all they do is producing bitcoins?  Or do you say that today all miners are automatically also buyers now because the prices are so low that buying is cheaper then mining.

Miners do not have to sell. They have the choice of selling, or holding. Perhaps you could say miners holding is a pull upward?
No - holding is not pushing down - that does not equal pushing up.


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: SgtSpike on November 04, 2011, 07:43:30 PM
There IS an upward push on pricing from miners.  And most miners DO still turn a profit on their rigs.

So...  ???

You've got me here - how can miners push up when all they do is producing bitcoins?  Or do you say that today all miners are automatically also buyers now because the prices are so low that buying is cheaper then mining.
No, I'm saying that some miners hold, so it *helps* with upward pricing on bitcoins.

We have a relatively steady price right now.  If all miners sold their bitcoins after mining them, the price would be lower.  If no miners sold their bitcoins after mining them, the price would be higher.  BECAUSE we have SOME miners who don't sell their bitcoins, it keeps the price where it is at, by maintaining some upward pressure on the price.  And yes, holding bitcoins DOES put upward pressure on the price.  If everyone held, there would still be buyers, so the buyers would start offering higher prices.  The holders would be contributing to the upward pressure on the price.


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: dree12 on November 04, 2011, 07:59:05 PM
There IS an upward push on pricing from miners.  And most miners DO still turn a profit on their rigs.

So...  ???

You've got me here - how can miners push up when all they do is producing bitcoins?  Or do you say that today all miners are automatically also buyers now because the prices are so low that buying is cheaper then mining.
No, I'm saying that some miners hold, so it *helps* with upward pricing on bitcoins.

We have a relatively steady price right now.  If all miners sold their bitcoins after mining them, the price would be lower.  If no miners sold their bitcoins after mining them, the price would be higher.  BECAUSE we have SOME miners who don't sell their bitcoins, it keeps the price where it is at, by maintaining some upward pressure on the price.  And yes, holding bitcoins DOES put upward pressure on the price.  If everyone held, there would still be buyers, so the buyers would start offering higher prices.  The holders would be contributing to the upward pressure on the price.
This is the same thing as saying "not buying" puts downward pressure on the price. So most holders are, in reality contributing to both upward and downward pressure.


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: SgtSpike on November 04, 2011, 08:04:08 PM
There IS an upward push on pricing from miners.  And most miners DO still turn a profit on their rigs.

So...  ???

You've got me here - how can miners push up when all they do is producing bitcoins?  Or do you say that today all miners are automatically also buyers now because the prices are so low that buying is cheaper then mining.
No, I'm saying that some miners hold, so it *helps* with upward pricing on bitcoins.

We have a relatively steady price right now.  If all miners sold their bitcoins after mining them, the price would be lower.  If no miners sold their bitcoins after mining them, the price would be higher.  BECAUSE we have SOME miners who don't sell their bitcoins, it keeps the price where it is at, by maintaining some upward pressure on the price.  And yes, holding bitcoins DOES put upward pressure on the price.  If everyone held, there would still be buyers, so the buyers would start offering higher prices.  The holders would be contributing to the upward pressure on the price.
This is the same thing as saying "not buying" puts downward pressure on the price. So most holders are, in reality contributing to both upward and downward pressure.
Hard to argue with that... ok, fine.  :P


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: zby on November 04, 2011, 08:59:31 PM
There IS an upward push on pricing from miners.  And most miners DO still turn a profit on their rigs.

So...  ???

You've got me here - how can miners push up when all they do is producing bitcoins?  Or do you say that today all miners are automatically also buyers now because the prices are so low that buying is cheaper then mining.
No, I'm saying that some miners hold, so it *helps* with upward pricing on bitcoins.

We have a relatively steady price right now.  If all miners sold their bitcoins after mining them, the price would be lower.  If no miners sold their bitcoins after mining them, the price would be higher.  BECAUSE we have SOME miners who don't sell their bitcoins, it keeps the price where it is at, by maintaining some upward pressure on the price.  And yes, holding bitcoins DOES put upward pressure on the price.  If everyone held, there would still be buyers, so the buyers would start offering higher prices.  The holders would be contributing to the upward pressure on the price.
This is the same thing as saying "not buying" puts downward pressure on the price. So most holders are, in reality contributing to both upward and downward pressure.

Yeah - and the question is if there are more 'not sellers' or 'not buyers'.


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: codymanix on November 04, 2011, 09:15:00 PM
question: what exactly is the difference between the red and the green volume lines on bitcoincharts?


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: S3052 on November 04, 2011, 09:31:05 PM
green: the volume if prices are up in the interval
red: prices down


Title: Re: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?
Post by: codymanix on November 05, 2011, 03:23:00 PM
Thanks, good to know :)