Bitcoin Forum

We don't seem to have a good rally thread going. So I decided to start one. Market is very bullish right now and a breakout over $3.5 was the first strong indicator of a reversal. A clear breakout over $4 would confirm the reversal.

Now open Mt. Gox Live and get some popcorn. Also, if someone could help me and post a few liftoff pictures in this thread, I would appreciate it. :)

Holy cow! What's causing this rally? Was it MtGox burning up some coins by accident, making us all richer?

I don't believe we're in a rally. Rally for me sounds like last summer's acceleration. We're more into a steady-paced climbing, with lots of mass that will be very hard to stop (high inertia).

In my opinion the rally is simply caused by the fact that after we hit the low of $2.04 the combination of real trade demand and speculative demand wanting "cheap" coins was simply too much for any downward pressure to keep up with. Thus we see the speculative demand increasing because more and more people are thinking that maybe the 2.04 low was the bottom.

It could indeed be that it was the bottom because we are close to the point where this rally can be called a trend-changing one. Not quite there yet but we'll see. A lot of people are still afraid that we're in a bull trap. Even I, known as a long-term bull and optimist, am not all-in, at least not yet.

I have been buying lately and I am buying now like many others but I'm constantly looking for signs of a confirmed reversal, which would most likely change my entire strategy, or signs that this is indeed a massive bull trap. Which would not really change my strategy because I'm still prepared for it.

Yes, it can be that:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50206.0

12% in one day, and the day isn't even over yet. We are in a massive rally if this continues.

I really doubt that market will go up just because of 2000 BTC lost :-). It's abosolutely insignificant amount.

Edit: I bet that the reason behind price jump is a "short squeeze" on Bitcoinica.

Someone bought 20k coins nearly within an instant.
http://img36.imageshack.us/img36/1821/unledtfy.png
That started off the huge spike to 3.8

I don't think it was a particular trader, a lot of people bought just as it broke above the previous bounce.

I've been finding myself having to acquire new coins to keep my balance stable. I think the general sentiment is that Bitcoin as a currency is here to stay and there is enough commerce to justify a bottom close to the current exchange rate, which is a fact supported by the decline in naysayers in this forum. It's a good time to buy if you plan to spend soon, so I'm guessing a lot of people are buying in small amounts for pure commercial purposes. I also personally don't feel like buying as an investment at this point, which for me is a somewhat positive indicator that the price isn't fully motivated by greed. ;) Probably there are a lot of investors waiting to jump in if it bounces to a new high after testing 3 again but I think it's a good thing that this time they are wary.

Hahahaha yay!  ;D

Hmm, let me check my logs for individual sales on mtgox, to see if I can find anything…

These were the largest transactions:Of course, this could have been the same person. But this shows that there was at least one individual throwing around thousands of coins.
There's lots of smaller transactions of a few hundred BTC too.


Edit: Also note the sheer speed with which this went. ~10k BTC within 12 seconds, and this is just the large sums.

I don't know, but please let me know before you try it out :D

^This, definitely!^

Could be bitcoinica too, does it support buy-stop orders? Well, it's old news anyway... ;)

It's pretty much instant.  If I put in an order that is just a few cents away from the current price, and the price just trickles over the price of my order, I will instantly see 3-4 transactions that completed my order.

within seconds

About the price of a decent car maybe.  Really just pocket change to a lot of people.  If a single person in the proverbial '1%' took a serious interest in Bitcoin we could see moves like this quite regularly.  And it is likely that such an individual would retain the services of a trader who understood the market and was able to move gracefully in it.

We might be in one of those time periods when people should not be putting up bids or asks that they do not feel pretty compfortable making.  Unless they have a personal relationship with the owners of the exchange at least.

It is always one of these times, people tend to forget that and that's when they usually loose.

I have been wanting so say this for a while: is it just me or all the threads in the speculation forum are the same? I mean, the initial posts are usually related to the thread title, but after a couple of pages everybody is talking about market predictions, log charts, trends, etc.

When I open the forum I feel that clicking in "9 days - 8 green 1 red is this unprecedented?", "How many of you Bears have ever been a victim of a Short Squeeze?" or "Is the price slowly climbing?" is the same. I will just see random content unrelated to the thread title.

+1.  We should clean up this forum or something. lol.

I do agree with this. There are way too many threads in this category. Way too many. We could cover all the topics people usually discuss in like 3 threads. :P

back to topic then:

Rally!!!

 8)

this makes a lot of sense. One suggestion can be to discuss all technical factors related to bitcoin trading / investing / speculation in the bitcoin technical analysis thread.

I can not review and comment all threads, but will try to be as active as possible in this one thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.1500 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.1500)

Looks like we're in for a drop right now. It's a fairly crucial situation for the short term, if we bounce back to $3.60+ there could be an extended rally. But if not, we will probably have a test of $3 soon.

It is time to become bear:
http://i44.tinypic.com/k0j61v.png

Umm a lot of bots aren't operating atm on Mtgox (heard in IRC) unless I'm much mistaken that should put us back to the weekend dump Monday correct situation we had a while back.

I'm curious, did anyone check to see if these coins came out of MTGox? I mean:
1) Did someone "redeem" them for actual block list BTC so they could transfer them to someone else?
2) Or are they still sitting in a hidden MTGox account?

The first case would seem like a large (maybe international) money transfer.
The second case seems more like speculation.

any special reason for the bots not operating?

The websocket is down, so they can't connect. You have to do all transactions via the site now.

I think that might actually put us back in a more "early days"  trading scenario until it's they're all back online.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvDqoxMUroA
if you have short attention span you may skip to 1:20

Well when we are in a forum called "speculation" about a one dimensional value, there is really only so much we can speculate about. Either it's going up or it's going down.

http://blackacrebrewing.com/hey.swf
That is all.

Hey, if I want to I can extend it to 4 dimensions, each one for buys, sales and their respective volumes.  ;D

Nice rally guys.

Was toying with a %100 increase, so ya, not bad.  Certainly enough for me to feel OK about putting in another largish chunk of fiat if we are lucky enough to get into the sub-$2 range.

My bot is still running through the old API. I need to change it to websockets, but I have been lazy lately...

It depends on the speed of the server and how many orders there are.


A while ago (many weeks), I saw someone try to buy a large number of bitcoins.  There were tons of tiny sell orders (for 0.01 to 0.10 BTC).  It took so long that one single purchase took 7 minutes to complete.


While I haven't seen large amounts of lag like that recently, I would expect that it would take a while for mtgox to process a $1,000,000 order, since it would clear out the entire order book.

So are we still bear or are we experiencing the "weekend effect"?

interesting screenshot... i didn't realise how different it looked in other browsers (compared to Chrome). it's completely invisible in IE and looks really weird in Opera.

anyway, only 4 blocks left til the drop!

2 blocks now!

It's like counting down to the new year!

1 block!
edit: oops.... 2 blocks :(

Difficulty down to 1,203,462.

So where are all the new coins? :P

So does lower difficulty likely mean lower price for BTC?  Do they correlate in both directions? 

I know price definitely effects difficulty in the long run... but visa versa?

potentially, if lower difficulty (more quickly) increases supply without a corresponding increase in demand.

This means that miners will get additional 50/100 coins per hour (comparing to the last couple of weeks). I don't think there is a strong relation between difficulty and price, but the price is defined by a lot of factors and the amount of coins received by the miners is definitely one of them.

Analysis:
It looks like big buy order took the price from 3.25 to 3.50 (but cleaned out the sell book in that range), then with the sell book empty up to 3.50, a rally to 3.80 from lower volume buys was much easier.


Here's a youtube vid of the mtgox hack/crash (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1X6qQt9ONg). It took 10 minutes+ to clear the order book, which was probably the hacker putting in just one or a few big sales.