Bitcoin Forum

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Check the line on this weekly graphic which connects the 5403 usd on 5 november to 5876 on 14 august. I'm betting this support line passing today on about 6000 is going to be breached and we are going to about 5700, the other support line connecting the 6000 low on 5 February and the 5755 low on 25 June.
If this is broken we have the other long term support line on 5526. This should hold or bounce back for a good trade.
If this long term line is breached all hell will break loose. Slowly, for many months, we might end up on the lower very long term support line now on 1700, but that probably will be above 2000 when reached. Might...
But don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.

If the weekly candle ends green in two days this will suggest that we'll have a red negative weekly candle after, but that the first line which is going to pass next week at around 5970 will hold. See the graphic.
But "they" love to trick us. So it might still end up going to the second support line passing at 5600.
My predictions aren't based only on the lines, but the rest are business secrets.
Any breach of the 6620 and clearly the 6700 (this would breach the moving average passing about 6660) will ruin this plan and force a prudent exit even if in the end this probably is going to go anyway to 5600.
Trying to see a glimpse of bitcoin's future is always an exercise on probabilities, we won't ever have certainty. Anyone saying the contrary is a joke.
But don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.

Other posts from me which might be of some interest:

Bitcoin price ins't unpredictable. Bitcoin follow certain patterns shown by past market events. Of course these patterns aren't clear most of the time. So you will get it wrong many times.
But if you only go to the market when you have a plan AND an exit plan and you jump out when your plan is ruined, you will make money. Because there will be many times when things will go according to the plan.

Bitcoin in the past followed a clear rule: if it makes a new high it will triple or quadruple the price, so it can go to 60,000 or 80,000 usd. A very secure moment to buy is always when bitcoin made a new all time high, for crazy that it may sound. Of course, it's not the ideal moment, you should enter before.
But I doubt bitcoin will make a new high or even go above 10,000 during the firth 6 months of 2019.
As I just wrote on another post: "On the past bitcoin market never reacted fast to any crash like this one. It went to the bottom and stayed there for months before beginning another uptrend.".
But I might be wrong. Sometimes the past isn't a mirror of the future. But it's the only objective thing we have to try to see a glimpse of the future.
Of course I don't know if bitcoin will ever make a new high again. That depends on things that now are unpredictable since it would only happen probably on 2020.


The trend is bearish. Don't fight the trend.
Don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.

There are holders who hate bearish people like currently I am. Somehow they think people who post negative things about the price want to influence the price. This is a very stupid thing to think. The market is huge and is moved by thousands of traders. Any post from anyone on bitcointalk won't ever influence the price.
Another reason for hate from holders is that some posts increase their anxiety about being wrong. About this I can't do nothing: hate on.
A last reason is about thinking that a bearish person is someone who is glad with bitcoin going down. Who don't care if this hurts bitcoin and moves people away from it. They think bearish people are bitcoin haters. Far from that: this is about facts and reasons, not about desires and emotions. I'm not glad or willing to see bitcoin's price going down. But our desires and emotions are irrelevant.

But we can not take the fact that there are people doing this kind of things, We can sure post anything we like in the forum, Or even the slightest intention that we like we can surely do, But like you have said a single FUD won't really affect the price all so sudden But if the poster is an influencer or a well-known person just like when Satoshi is still posting in the forum it will make a big difference, But there are facts that a FUD can really help in decreasing the price or changing the feelings of certain people it will surely depend on whose posting it, And I think we have a ranking base kind of racism in the forum that can sure affect the feeling of most people here, Well I am saying there is a fact that if a Hero or Legendary rank member would post FUD most would have an eyes on it and may cause a lot of newbies and average rank to believe, well I am saying that people may sure base on the rank and would not research and see the fact if that persons information is legit or not.

all i see is paradox everywhere in your comments!
you say bitcoin isn't unpredictable then everything else you said is saying it is unpredictable but at the same time you are trying to predict it.
then you go on with saying the past is not the "mirror" and it doesn't have to be repeated but at the same time your arguments are based on the past!
and more...

another paradox :D
a long term investor commonly known as a hodler does not care about bearish or bullish trend and those people in it!

it is their goal, nobody said they succeed!
and there is nothing wrong with posting "negative things" about bitcoin. but "negative things" is not the same as FUD

I learned to stop fighting the trend years ago. And since we haven't broken out of the succession of lower highs and lower lows yet, I'd agree that we haven't technically broken the downtrend.

But you'd have to agree, there's no bear momentum anymore. We've gone sideways for months now. Late shorts have got to be sweating just as much as bagholding bulls. There's really no point talking about trends until we break this sideways range.

I agree with you when you said you don't recommend the prediction because the market price movement is not certain. However, I also presume some dip in price before the end of this year but I don't actually the price range but I'm certain it will be deeper than the previous dump in price.

I know that bitcoin behavior is really unpredictable. Therefore, references to these technical charts and tables do not matter much. It is unlikely that bitcoin will continue to drop in price so low, I do not believe in it. In many respects the behavior of bitcoin in the last months of this year will depend. We hope that, like in every year, bitcoin in the last months of the year will increase significantly in price. Although we do not expect a sharp increase for the time being. If bitcoin in the last months of this year will not significantly increase in price, this will greatly disappoint investors.

no, you can not come up with any predictions at this point. filling it with ifs and butts and mights is not going to change that. you are making a guess not a prediction. at this point we are at the bottom for a long time, there is no trend, neither bear nor bull because there haven't been any drops or rises for a couple of months now and drawing lines on the chart is not going to change that!
we are currently in an stable/sideways trend where price is going up AND down and day traders are enjoying the short term profits while everyone else is waiting on the sidelines to see what will happen before jumping in.

Exactly, the same pattern we have seen prior  to the rush at $7300, trading sideways with no clear direction (bullish/bearish), but suddenly we went on another break out run to $7300 but the Goldman&Sachs plus the wallet connected to Mt. Gox or Silk Road went on a move pulling the price to $6300-$6500 for the nth time. So we need to wait again as to who are going to win this battle bears to pull the price or the bulls to make the price grow. I'm sure that day traders are very happy with this rampant price fluctuations, easy for they to profit 1%-5% daily. As for those who are waiting, we can't blame them as most of them got burned already.

If you read my posts with some more attention they would be clear.
Bitcoin's prices are unpredictable on the long-run, because they can be determined by unpredictable events, like political decisions, economic demand, technological improvement or consensus.
But they are predictable on a certain measure on the short-term (one week, one month).
The past can only give us some clues about the future, but without certainty. That's why I wrote that bitcoin prices can be predictable on a certain measure. It's because of this that I also get them wrong.

We are in agreement about the value of the trend. But I still think we are on a bearish trend. We are making lower highs and I'm still standing behind my prediction: about 5960 on the next week. They can even trick us and make a new lower low, even if I'm not betting on it. I'm expecting a nice bounce around 5960.

Day traders can only earn profits if they can make correct predictions. Flipping a coin or just guessing without support on graphics is a recipe for disaster. But I will always be humble when trading bitcoin and add a might. It's about probabilities and not certainties.

Remember the top at about 1140 on 2013? We had a bear market of more than 2 years next, then a painful recovery during 2017, before we were able to make a new higher high. In between we saw real blood on the market with panic deeps. I suspect this is going to be a very long bear market with some real panic moments more. But as the time frame gets longer, predictions are even less certain.
Don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.

I must confess I am quite surprised that the support around $5800 has been that strong. Like you I was expecting the price to go below that yesterday or today... That's why Bitcoin and crypto currencies in general are still very hard to predict...
Traditional financial markets (stocks) are a totally different world from my humble experience. It is necessary to analyze the results of the company + consider complex financial and economic notions.

From my experience (I have been into stock markets since 2011) I prefer the crypto market: volatility / no financial analysis, only technical analysis.

The only question is when will we see the sideway range break? I do hope that this uneventful market would not last that long. Uneventful market such as this is not that profitable at all.
With the way things are going now, I am sure that this bear market would not that long because even if it is uneventful, there are a lot of upcoming events that might set a new momentum for a bullish market.

There is no point in fearing these kind of doomsday predictions, especially based on technical indicators. I would happily accumulate more bitcoins at those levels. If you have belief in the long-term outlook, there is no reason to get scared.
It is another matter that I do not have faith in technical analysis...

Holders who hate bearish people ? You think real holders who understand the technology, the future and the benefit and understand the risk with volatility will be worried about where the market wants to drive to? A serious holder will care less and even buy the dips if need be.

Nevertheless, the OP is just stating his own opinion. That does not mean his opinion will have to count in the long run, as future is unpredictable, but whichever way, you should also understand that the market sure have more room to go lower, and how you view that as an opportunity or problem is where the problem is.

If you do not have faith in TA, then you will be lost as a trader, because without it you are definitely not going to be able to make anything out of it. I have been using TA for a long time, and even in stocks and Forex market, they fail sometimes, but really, TA are not meant to give you certainty that the market is going in a particular direction, but they are just there to guide into a strategy you can use to play with the market fluctuations, which mean you will beating yourself up as a trader, if you are expecting 100% successful trades every time. If it is that way, there won't be need for stop loss.

OP, I am with you on the success of your on your "long term to $1700" prediction. Because like you, I also want to buy some cheap Bitcoins. 8)

Never stop and never surrender, if you pray hard enough, your wish might become true. Hahaha.

There are low odds. But if bitcoin goes below $ 3,000, all people compete with each other to get bitcoin. So in summary, this situation continues for a very short time. prices go back to where they started.

There is nothing to be surprised about, so far, it is serving as a major support and it has bounced off it for some time, but that does not mean we could still not break it eventually. Every market is hard to predict and that is the reason they are markets anyway and the only thing we can do is to accustom ourselves to the trend and time, but the volatility that some are complaining about is the volatility that some are really enjoying greatly. It is just as simple as that.

Those who fear them are certainly those who never get to understand the reason for their investment in the first place or will I say got the wrong understanding since all they care about is getting rich as the media painted it throughout last year. There will always be crashing predictions during a bear trend and it was obvious we will enter this corrective state, but certainly last year, even if you tell people to be careful, they will say you are generating FUD.

This price prediction is impossible in future because most least value is 5k USD so bitcoin will never come back to 3k USD. This year altcoins are crashing because last year segwit2x was lanched so that time network was too busy so Bitcoin was crashing and all other altcoins are growing. But this year everything will be change so Bitcoin will going to moon.

That's my fear, that the price of $5800 gets broken (down) eventually. I have being watching the price for a while now, we have been touching the price a few times already and everytime the bounces (up) were less and less impressive. Hope I am wrong.

A lot of sentiments are actually going towards bullish towards the end of the year, but the truth here is that, no one can actually tell what things would be like in the long run or even the short run. The market is still trying to hold up, but it sure seems the bears are really still in this market and could drive it hard down as much as they want, and we still have a lot of time before this year ends anyway. If it goes lower, then I buy more. As simple as that for someone who is looking forward to the long term anyway?

Bitcoin breached two ascending support lines and barely managed to keep above a descending support line, after actually breaching it (it's passing at about 4500 usds).
It's on free falling and the probability to reach about 2000 usds on the next months increased a lot. There is an ascending support line on the weekly charter passing 754-890 and currently on 1888 that should offer a support.
If this line can't hold long term, the next one is passing below 1000, now at about 650!
A long term buy at about 2000 might be a good move, but not with all your capital, because if it stands, the price will be around this value for months, before slowly going up.
But a flash crash below this line for a quick drop to the next support line now at 650 can't be ruled out.
At least, this is the story that past major crashes tell us.
But don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.

Probably the market will make a three day green candle, since bitcoin was oversold.
But this seem to be a short-term movement. An opportunity to close long positions. Because after we'll have more down.
The trend is bearish, don't fight the trend by buying because you thinking the prices are very cheap. A price only is cheap when it's about to go up, but this doesn't seem to be the case. :)

The long term ascending line shown on my OP graphic, now passing on about 2100 is still a very strong possibility. There is however a second ascending line passing now at about 2430 that might also be a long term support.
Buying at current value is a very risky business. The trend is still bearish. Fight it at your risk.
But don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.

I find trend lines to be unreliable S/R; I really only look at horizontal levels and moving averages. A short-lived dump into the $2,000s is very possible, and probably even likely. But I don't think there are any real price supports there, so it's anyone's guess where the exact bottom might be. I'm just operating under the assumption that just like 2015, any dumps below the 200-week MA will get bought back up.

I think you are some how a bit right in your predictions.  Cryptocoins market is volatile market and few that has been following the market understand to some extent and to be right in our predictions is a hard thing to do.  I think bitcoin might go as low as around $2700 if care is not taking because the buying power is still very low.  Traders are looking for any little opportunity to dump and that is why the market is currently stagnant.

Don't take this as a recommendation but there seem to be some indications that the bottom might have been made, contrary to my expectations that bitcoin could go to 2000 (see OP and other posts). I don't think that bitcoin is going to go up seriously during 2019, but perhaps it will start a painful recovery that will take more than one year to go back to 10,000. It was something like this that happened in the past every time we had a major crash.
I still expect a fall to at least 3930 perhaps even 3600, but the risk/reward might worth taking a small position with a long term perspective, at least at those values. In order to increase it as the price breaks 4250 and then 4500.

As usual don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.

At least you made sense this time.  ;D

Yes, probably the last bottom is already in. I'm fine with the long and grinding recovery leading to 5 digits again. By experience we know that a sudden burst in price is not good for all of us, just like what we saw in December 2017. It could fall, but I'm not expecting it to go further below the last all-time-high, probably $3600-$3700 will be a big resistance now.

I think the same, seeing the liquidity that can present in such a large resistance of $ 3.6ka $ 3.7k represents a powerful area to hold any crash, however, when analyzing the volume, the price has gradually increased without volume, indicating that no there is supply at lower price levels.

Now if a crash occurs the most that can fall is up to about $ 2.8k, since after there, according to Malkiel Burton author of "A random walk by Wall Streeth" would be wiping out the castles in the air of people, and every operator of the  market takes into account that a possible crash is to buy cheaper and be able to raise the price to take profit, is what is always sought.

It seems this your prediction come to pass and it is the right views about the current price situation I have seeing in the long time.  The long bearish conditions at the bottom is what we are witnessing now and bitcoin is a bit recovery currently.

Crypto economy was grow in this year but no one is forgot the last year dump. Because day by day peoples are adopt the crypto technology so they are all trying buy some Bitcoin but big holders are just sell the huge investment in single time so it will move to backward and again it takes some time to recover so better to legalized in Bitcoin this will going to moon.

As I wrote on this post, about 45 days ago, I think that the crash is over. That we are going to repeat the slow recover of 2016.
This means that this time seems to be different and that we won't have a full year like on 2015 of simple consolidation.
But I suspect that we are going to have a hard time breaching 8500 and then 10000 usd.
Since this is going to be a slow recovery, expect some falls. It won't be an easy ride.

But if I'm right, it's time to buy and hold. It might take more than 1 year, but if we break 10000 usd, we will go up, perhaps to test the all time high.

As usual don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.

Remember that God is the one answered prayers and he is a just God and that means even if you pray and the effects of your prayers is going to affect others there is no need of making those prayers.  Bitcoin may not get to $1700 again and I think it is now on the way back up again.

How different was that when we were going towards the $3000 level fast last year? People were so bearish that many of them believed that it was only a matter of weeks before we would tank below the $2000 level. Some even dared to point at ~$800 to be a realistic target.

It's going to be interesting to see how the market will move from here. Below $4000 people were super bearish, currently they are super bullish. If the mass is still functioning as counter indicator, we might be up for a surprise pretty soon. If the bulls keep ignoring various oversold indicators, which they have for a while now, shorters might find themselves on the wrong side of the fence.

Shorts have been accumulating rapidly and this might fuel a higher move with a short squeeze shooting the price past $6000 like there has not been any resistance at all.

I always say that bitcoin will continue grow even from March, but now is something that happen and i can't say for sure that will grow more or will go down, because even go to 7500 and after to 7300$, need to wait and see. But maybe level 8000$ will be pass before of end of month.

I'm seeing a heathy pullback first, before we can even touch $8k again. Why? because we don't want to see the price going on a parabolic rise because it will just be another bubble waiting to be burst. Currently, there is strong support around $7k and $7.2. So if there is a pullback, I wouldn't be surprised to see the price increase again in the $8k levels.

According to your analysis, do you think that at $ 8K there is a difficult resistance to get out or break? What happens is that part of the indicators are not my strong point, rather my vision is different, for me $ 8K is not a resistance, for me it is an area of ​​opportunity, the resistance for me is $ 20K, but I think that The concepts at the trading level can be managed from different points of view and study.

I think it has to do a lot with the operations that are given, in what whales or Strong Hands have prepared for the market, because one thing is what can be predicted and another is what happens, because the Market Makers have had in account all the possible scenarios, often we are surprised by the market, because we think that it is going to make a movement and end up going through another totally different one.

I think that the prediction is good, but it may be lacking at the moment when a fundamental can occur, which according to the graph is not contemplated, but everything in an ideal system.

for me , bitcoin will crash to 1500 usd per btc. there are always new traders and new investors who dont know history of bitcoin .. if crash does not happend this year . 2020 and 2021 will crash for sure

The resistance at 8500 was breached after some trouble, as expected.
I think it will go now to about 10,000 usd and then crash for at least 7 days in order to make at a minimum a weekly negative candle. We can even do a negative zig-zag: weekly down, weekly lateral/up and weekly down. And then drag around 7000/8000 for weeks.
It's hard at this time to say what will be the bottom for this expected crash. We could repeat the crash we had on the week of 26/10/2015-2/11/2015, that went from 500 to 300 usd, on the beginning of the recovery and start of the move to 20,000.
But we took some time to breach 8500, therefore the crash might not be this heavy. One thing is shore, once we reach 10,000 we will have had a great rally. Don't expect this will go on to 20,000 without a big correction.
But even if this crashes like I'm expecting, I think that eventually it will breach 10,000. I don't see fundamental reasons that can be an obstacle for this to happen.
I'm too lazy to post a chart. Just doing this for fun.

As usual don't trust me. I earn money, but many times the technical signs are so contradictory that I don't have a clue about what is going to happen next. And when the signs are very clear, better suspect about the outcome. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.

You expect us to believe what you said without providing any reason why you think bitcoin is going to crash to 1500! It is surprising how we make some predictions and think that is going to happen without looking at the past data. The op opened this thread in September last year and the bearish trend that makes him to do that has ended.

I've been thinking along similar lines. It's too bad so many people are eyeing $10K as the target area. Not just you and me, but Masterluc, Peter Brandt, and other analysts I've seen as well. When the target is so obvious to the market, it makes me worry something else is going to happen. Like how everyone (including me) thought there would be stiff resistance around $6K, but it fell almost instantly.


Based on the momentum of this rally, that's the best historical parallel I can find.

The faster we rise, the harder we fall.

I do not understand people who think that bitcoin needs to go back a bit first to go even higher. Do you guys remember the 2017 peak at 20 thousand dollars? The price went up so high that it didn't even look back, it just went straight up without any pull back. There has been a lot of times like that (November 2014 as well when it hit 1400 for the first time).

Bitcoin doesn't need to go low first in order to higher, it can go up right away without going down first. Yeah sometimes the pull back is important and needed, it does happen quite frequently but just because it is healthy and sometimes happens doesn't mean it will happen all the time, it can go up with it or without it. I think this time around the bulls are too strong to let a pull back happen and it will go straight up, except maybe veeeeery small ones.

Yeah we have witness that bitcoin crash and mostly users felt uncertainty through bitcoin bearish market. Some had been throwing already their bitcoin investment by dumping it at a low price knowing that could be a good profit after the comeback. Yet, they still feared out of it so probably if they had seen already the market went high now then they will going to regret it by now.

I learned one thing in bitcoin and that is to believe on it. Risking also played a lot of role to be successful in the future.

you may remember it like that, but that's not how it happened. we pulled back $1350 to $900, then $3000 to $1800, then $5000 to $3000, $7900 to $5500......the final few weeks of the bubble went vertical but we are nowhere near that stage in a bull market.

That was the point at which we had 7 sequential long stretches of gain, but every time cannot always have gains, many people believe there will always be pull back because we don’t all reason alike. As you have the mentality of holding, so other investors also have the mentality of taking profits for those that cannot wait till bull run before they take profit.

Do not also forget the fact that we have traders that take profits virtually on a daily basis, but the reason why bitcoin will always be outstanding is because no matter the pull back, the bulls are always stronger to hold it up and push it back to its original value and far above that.

Everytime we can't expect similar pattern of growth with bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Previously we've encountered such a kind of price drop and further things changed with time. By that time there were more controversy on the growth stating it as a bubble though it is a good bull market. Further when the price drop took place it was mentioned as a price wave, this time the growth is steady and moving stronger than ever.

I believe the crashing predictions are just there so there is an healthy amount of suspicion of this increase. You can't just expect EVERYONE to think bitcoin to go up, some people will eventually think it will go down, the higher we go the more people will start talking about how its close to getting down eventually. The price is at a decent level right now, it may go up or it may go down and we will never know.

However, if price were to increase to 20 thousand dollars in June then there would be much more people thinking bitcoin will
eventually go down, you can't expect bitcoin to only go up, that is insane, it will eventually go down for sure. The question is, will it go down now or will it go down after it hits x dollars, it may continue to go up more, it may continue to break the all time high price but that doesn't mean one day eventually it will go down.