Bitcoin Forum

Hello guys,

Looking for some "predictions" about bitcoin future i found/remember a good not so new information... and I'm writing this because maybe someone does not know about and have an interest in this information.

Today on a good number of blocks mined using bitcoin blockchain miners got a 12,5 coins, and aparently this will be reduced to 6.25 coins on May 2020, as you can see here https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/ and if you want search code on git, you can found also

Im already moving a good part of my investments to bitcoin, first, because i believe on this technology and second, probably will be a very good investment looking long term ( ~2 years.. with this information)
 
We cannot confirm any value prediction $  .. but bitcoin will be more "rare" (its more hard to obtain one) , and with this "rare" effect the price maybe can be increased.

what do you think guys ?

https://i.imgur.com/4em3IUJ.png

More than 82% of all bitcoins are already mined, people who want to hold a whole bitcoins or more, are going to be missing out if they not start to invest soon.
The price of bitcoins will most likely be higher when we reach next halving.

When reward for block will be 6.25BTC price will rise..
Reward for mined block - down = BTC price - up.
Is it right?

 That’s the most likely scenario but we cannot know beforehand if there will be some major event around that time that will draw the price down.


2 years is not long-term, it is mid-term at most.

I think long-term expectations have to based not only on the scarcity of bitcoin and its non-inflationary nature, but also on how useful it is going to be as a peer-to-peer cash system and/or as a store of wealth.

By that time bitcoin will become more of a store of value and this is my another hope, not with those ETF's though it will give some help too. I've witnessed the last halving and I can say that it created positive impact to the price so it can happen again with the next halving on 2020. I already saved the date and this is the one that I'm boasting to my friends who are laughing to me right now just because they only see the correction for this year.

first of all bitcoin won't be "more rare"! there currently is ~17 million bitcoin in circulation and by the time the next halving occurs there will be a bout 18.375 million bitcoin in circulation and will continue to grow. so you can't say it will be rarer because of halving.
what block reward halving does is that it slows down production of new coins.

secondly price doesn't have to rise because of halving. bitcoin have always risen based on more adoption aka demand for bitcoin not because of its supply. the limited supply contributes to more rise but the real reason is that demand otherwise the supply is growing with or without halving.
additionally there has always been a hype about halving which has led to a sudden rise due to speculation prior to halving. it usually happens 1 or 2 month before it so you can't plan for "May 2020" for this reason that I mentioned and also because finding blocks is a chance thing, the time is not fixed it may take exactly 2 weeks to find 2016 blocks or it may take longer or shorter which will change that date.

When a lot of bitcoin price demand tends to rise because it has deflationary properties, I don't think it will wait in 2020, but at the end of the year bitcoin will also experience a substantial price increase, it cannot be predicted exactly, I expect people to invest with bitcoin and not much trade in fiat currency.

It's a fairly simple thing to observe and it's happened on all previous halvings, although I think it was with a little delay. From an economic point of view it's simply a case of reducing supply leading to a price increase.

The block reward was halved twice already, and in both cases, it took about 4 months for the Bitcoin price to shoot up. If history repeats itself, that would put the price explosion around September 2020, more or less 2 years from now.

Yes that is what it looks like from that view but what if we consider technical growth and choices. For instance, humanity have been known to not be certified with a certain hardship or hard situation. If such scarcity come in bitcoin, don't we think another choice could be made?

We have plenty of choices in etheruem and litecoin.

Again do we still remember that when transaction fees for bitcoin was very high, investors and traders found something nice with relying on etheruem and litecoin which was the major reason I think that gave those coins an ATH at that time.

Its bound to happen after halving but now that there are more coins to invest with, changes can happen too. Not saying that BTC will not rise but it may not be the price we expect like going up more than $20k like the previous pump. There are just too much coin that are more useful not to mention ETH which we can say popular and that there is an assurance of profit and the obvious is that individuals who has no millions of USD can still afford to invest.

I am very sure before then we would have started seeing a huge momentum in price movement upward and I am sure that would really be some year to really look forward to. Most of the time, the halving have always brought about some crazy buying spree in the market and without doubt, looking at the fact that some bullish momentum still points toward this date in the long run, I would say it is still very possible to see this happen. I am sure a time will come even without the halving, that people would really demand for bitcoin a lot and that would skyrocket the price hugely.

Let's pretend the price explodes on the date you think it will, you sell and then what? You have wasted so much time waiting for something just to lock in some profits. Try to see why Bitcoin is useful and use it.

Bitcoin's biggest gift to the world is that we have a way to hedge failing governments and the financial system. Don't always focus on fiat gains, but try to increase your BTC stack instead.

It's not for nothing that BitMEX has gained a tremendous amount of popularity. People can bet on Bitcoin and altcoins while using BTC to settle all trades, meaning, you'll get your profits paid out in Bitcoin as well.

texgeek, halving 2020 will probably have an impact on the price, but not when halving occurs - it will take some time for that, same as was the case in halving 2016. It is hard fact that daily production will go down from current 1800 per day to "only" 900 BTC per day, so less new coins will come to market, but still there will be almost 3 million coins for mining and for most people this is very big number.

Much more interesting things will start to happen when almost 99% of all BTC is mined, but that date is around 2032 and 4 more halving to go - for some people too long time for waiting.

Bitcoin is useful in its own way, and not one single coin can match that. Bitcoin is enjoying so much superiority, that we can't even talk about proper competition.

Ethereum isn't even competing with Bitcoin because it has different use cases and a much larger field of competition to deal with, and we'll find out during the next boom which of utility platforms will be the dominant one. It's easy to say Ethereum will be, but don't disregard EOS & Co. Ethereum is facing serious scaling challenges, which is something its competition isn't dealing with.

If we're purely talking about returns, I am more bullish on EOS & Co than on Ethereum.

In other words, just use bitcoin for it was created for, not for a speculative asset.

Well, people think hodling is going to help them retire at age 30,so what's wrong with waiting for 2 years, if they can enjoy for their rest of their lives. This is exactly what people think of bitcoin and nothing but that. The whole community's view of bitcoin needs to change, but I doubt if it ever will. And even if it does, bitcoin might never go back to 20k$,let alone 100,000$ and I million. Because the global economy won't be able to survive a currency that is so volatile,and is widely spent, other currencies or even economies might collapse to it.

Price will not explode at that time but for sure we will be long in the Bull market by then.

I've always thought of it like this.  No more than 21 Million people in the whole world can own 1 whole bitcoin.   Chances are, it's much less than that when it's almost done mining due to lost keys and some that won't move.     

Just a quick google and there are over 36 Million--millionaire's in the world.  Yep, 1 BTC will rise substantially with adoption.

It can also happen the opposite: the anticipation of the halving and people expecting the price to go up due the decrease of inflation may make some buy months before it actually happens, starting the bullrun way earlier than the actual halving date, since they just try to outbuy each other trying to get before the rise begins, so this causes FOMO.

I believe a lot of people are waiting for the right time to enter in Bitcoin and the mental deadline is the halving of 2020, so they have to get in before that date, the more they wait the higher the risk of missing the bottom (assuming we haven't bottomed already)

yep, supply is only one side of the equation. all else equal, when supply drops, price should rise. but if demand for bitcoin is actually dropping by the time the halving comes around, that'll be reflected in the price as well.

given the long term uptrend, i'm assuming the halving will take place in the context of a bull market. but i try to keep an open mind about these things. one truism about markets i've learned over the years is that when everyone expects the same thing, it doesn't happen.

Bitcoin won't remain volatile for ever if it actually becomes a widely used medium of exchange and store of value. I can totally see a point at which Bitcoin will end up following gold in terms if stability.

I don't think we'll ever be able to expect anything more than that. Bitcoin currently is too speculative, too small, too thinly supported with liquidity, and so forth. All factors contributing to insane levels of volatility.

Once all these factors are dealt with, which might take 5-10 years, we'll be looking at a whole different asset. Some people might not think Bitcoin is capable of reaching that state, but that's their problem.

It requires an open mind to allow potential scenarios to develop. Saying no to everything is a guaranteed way to not book any progress in life.

It won't explode, all of those things are considered in price way before it happens.

It won't be like 6 thousand dollars on April 2020 and 60 thousand dollars on may, if the price goes up then they check the dates and it increases slowly but surely before hand.

Hence, if you believe that the price will be effected (naturally) from miners not selling for cheap and all agree to increase the price so they can cover the costs than you can assume they will start it way before that, maybe not from today but the affects can be seen even today, it will happen closer like 6 months before or so. That way it won't happen all of a sudden.

The mining difficulty and lessen rewards maybe a reason for the prices to explode but there is no exact reason that the prices will be high at that time but hopefully it will be high since the price of bitcoin keeps increasing over the years so we have two years time frame in that time we may have the bitcoin prices somewhere around $100K or $100. :P It all depends on the people's adoptions and governments regulation.

If the ETF has passed then I expect enough inertia for the price to keep pumping during the halving. I think people are still too noob to realize the ETF is not needed for bitcoin to take over the world, we are still not there yet. We'll be there in two years? who is to say, but me personally, I doubt it. So the ETF would fuel the rocket faster.

Now what i've mentioned before will play a major key. If market participants, in anticipation of halving, start outpositioning each other by buying earlier, this could start he bull run far before the actual event. This means that if it goes out of hand, the peak may be reached by the time the halving happens and the halving becomes a sell the news event.

Of course the fundamentals around it could change that, for instance, the ETF passing may be too strong a bullish force to stop there and we will keep going higher and higher into new ATH's.

Just because there are alternative choices doesn't mean that the price of bitcoin won't continue to increase as the scarcity of it increases. With diamonds the price still increases even though people look to alternatives like rubies etc.

Year after years bitcoin price continues to grow,so what i am seeing here is in 2019 the bitcoin value will recover from the dip since 2017 is such a great year,so when 2020 comes the prices of cryptocurrency specially bitcoin will be atleast $50,000 is the lowest speculation

Obviously, that has always happened over the years anyway and I would not be surprised if we get to have the same repetition this time around. As long as people started realizing that this is the real deal and a time will come they would wish they had really made some important decision of investing at this stage, then they will surely know the best way to go most of the time when it comes to being a part of the market in its dip.

Patience is all that is just required in this, and anyone who has it will in the long term experience a huge benefit.

Are you palmist or astrologist? How can you say that the price after more than 2 years will be this? I don’t believe such false statements. There is no reality in these predictions. I only believe the current situation of the market. I only believe the trend of the market and the trust of the people, which is low these days, and that is the big reason for low bitcoin price.

I think that this is extremely unlikely even if Bitcoin is widely used as a means of
payment. The big difference is that Bitcoin trading is just so easy and anyone
can join in on the action 24/7 from every country in the world. Besides, the supply
of BTC that is traded on the exchanges will decrease in the long-term as institutional
investors buy up big amounts of coins for the long-term. Wild price moves therefore
will be just as easy in the future as they are now, because simply not enough people
will have their Bitcoins on exchanges in open orders.

It will be just as easy to move the market by a 100 BTC market buy in the future as it is now
if you ask me.

There is too much if involved.

We're at a stage at which people (the smart ones) start to understand how everything works here, which in my opinion will only reduce the probability of something like that to happen. I think it's pretty safe to say that the market participants you are referring to are already positioning themselves in the way they want by taking advantage of the current downward market cycle.

All the accumulation happening right now means there is less needed in the future, unless the demand shoots up to insane levels, but again, that's impossible to time.

The last time this happened we didn't saw the price skyrocketing as soon as that happen, it took months for the market to feel the decrease in the supply of coins and for the price to go up, so the process that you are talking about is not as certain as you make it out to be, however once we got the halving eventually the price of bitcoin will go up.

Not like I will be surprised. It is something that I believe has been happening in the past years when it comes to halving and during this period it is normal to always see some great level of demand for it.

If we get to see history repeat itself, then we might end up having some pretty great moment in the long run in our hands. The usefulness as time goes on as far as I am concerned will actually give it a great boost on its own coupled with every other fundamental surrounding it.

Just thinking! At this stage of halving we have seen twice in the past (2012 in which we saw a huge increase to about $1000 and then following the 2016 halving with a huge peak we saw afterwards last year.

However, there is still a lot about the market we cannot always predict with the past, and even though previous halving have shown significant impact on the price, it still does not mean it should be an indicator for the future. With all things being equal anyway, I do not believe by then, the price of bitcoin should still be what it is today.

reasonable predictions, this is market law. if the items are increasingly scarce, the price will become more expensive and vice versa. but this is also inseparable from bitcoin enthusiasts or investors.

In my opinion there is just one reason for price explodes in the coming years and that is the huge investment cap. If more and more people invest in bitcoin and more countries accept bitcoin as their legal and regular currency the price will automatically go up. 2020 is very far and I hope that the price will be very high in that time, not because of some unnatural thing but due to the time.

Sure, a time will come with wide usage in which we might get to see some good level of equilibrium.

Although, it is not like it is going to totally halt the volatility, but at least it will be reduced to a very good point with wide level of usage, but before then, I am sure the price would have skyrocketed to a huge level and things would have turned out to be different than it is now.

Moreover, some people may want to look at the future, like you said, it is their problem but as far as some of us are concerned, the future is a lot worthy to wait and be patient for.

Yes that's the day about bitcoin halving. Supply of new bitcoins would get automatically reduced to half the volume available now and definitely it would help bitcoin price to increase as bitcoin's price is decided mostly by the market's demand and supply.But we would have to wait for more than 500 days to witness such a high price.