Bitcoin Forum

See below link:

https://iterative.capital/appendix/

It's a long read, but interesting nonetheless.

this means that bitcoin will go to the moon, I'm sure this will happen. the 2014 chart is very identical to this year.
I also read some good predictions here
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5043315.0

Don't get your hopes high towards any speculation until that day comes, Well anything can really happen but we can not have any 100% validity that it may really happen and just like what I am always saying that we are in a bullish market and it is really hard to say that we may see a movement to the moon I rather say that we might see a decrease than an increase in the coming holiday season because many people may need money to use in the festivities and they end up selling some of their bitcoin, Just my thoughts of the impending end of this year.

It's phony. We can't predict exactly whether the price will go up or down. Just wait and see.

Interesting read, I particularly like the fractal theory, and also the mathematics built into the network.

Pricewise; Short term to medium term, I don't think there will be much increase in price.  In the longer term what will happen is that there will be a very gradual increase in BTC price in the run up to the halving, then after the halving in May 2020 (approx) there will be a consolidation or slight drop in prices.  Then towards the end of 2021 there will be a new ATH, then following on from that a bear market. 

The opinion in the article is interesting that 2019 from now on will go x10 in the BTC value,well actually it can't be ascertained cause the market value we already know is fluctuating and difficult to explain where the value.Have seen several articles also that they predict in the coming year the BTC value will go to the month and above 20K it is certain because it has been at that value,It is true that someone said above that dont be too high to speculate.

I like the pretty charts.

I only skimmed the article, but yeah it basically points out the obvious: everything is point to a bull run over the next two years.

The bitcoin price cycle is bull run - crash and bear market - sideways transition phase, repeat
We just got out of the bear market and have been in the sideways transition phase since early September. Once that ends another bull run is coming (2019-2020).

The hash rate is continuing to go up and once the sideways low interest time is over bitcoin will jump back up to compete with the rising hash rate.

Another halving is coming in about a year and a half, so that should occur right in the middle of the hype phase of the late bull run.

I agree it follows a boom-and-bust dynamic.

I'm just not convinced we're "out of the bear market" yet. Although the market was far more volatile in 2013-2014 than it is today, the price was still effectively sideways from December 2013 to August 2014. We all know what happened after that. This is not so different from the current sideways range from February to October 2018.

I got bull trapped in the summer of 2014, so maybe it's just my butthurt bias showing from back then. I'm just saying: keep an open mind. I don't see signs of a bull market yet so I won't assume it's coming yet.

There are too many theories and almost all of them looks like the longer time passes the higher bitcoin price will be. It will certainly not be going straight up as we have seen in the past but it will be more than what it is right now in 10 years we can clearly say that.

Sometimes it drops sometimes it goes up but it always breaks the all time high no matter what. The nature of bitcoin is so different than fiat that it can stay low for a long term but in the end the reasons why it will go up is too many which eventually breaks out. I suppose whales probably have something to do with keeping it low but at one point even they do not really keep the peace and just let it go which than directly goes to skylimits and than have a big crash after everyone feels like they have what they want.

I have seen lots of charts lately and all say if the price of bitcoin will rise very high in the future, I see some graphs if the price of bitcoin will soar in 2020. I will wait  ::)

If you really saw the last years chart you will never say this word. Because last five years chart was similarly matching in all the months but this year totally changed everything and many issues are affected in total market. But we hope again it will going to moon in next year and current market is stable in last few months so this is the best time to invest in bitcoin. If all are continuously investing in Bitcoin it will going to peak.

That does not seem like an accurate description of what happened. Dec 2013 the crash hit but it rebounded from the immediate crash and stayed at $800 for a bit in early 2014. I remember thinking it found support at $800 in early 2014 and I put a bunch more money in and two weeks after I did that MtGox collapsed which sent the price under $500 for much of the spring. It again recovered mid-year but like you said in August started slowly dropping down to its true bottom at $200. But Dec 2013 to August 2014 was not remotely sideways and was nothing like the market is now, that was it crashing and rebounding lower and lower until early 2015, just as the price crashed and rebounded lower and lower this year up until September. We're now at that bottom, scraping along sideways, as Bitcoin did for most of 2015 in the $200 - $300 range. We're past that rebounding and dropping multiple times like in 2014, that was from Dec 2017 to Aug 2018 this time around. We have clearly entered the next stage of the cycle, low volatility, found the bottom of the market, low interest. Next move once something kicks the market into gear will be up to start a new bull market.

I think the trouble with checking out the trends and the ways to calculate is that bitcoin is not something like that.

It doesn't need charts, it doesn't need any indicators. Tomorrow a big whale could wake up and sell twenty thousand bitcoins at once and it could kill the economy for a while and change the shape of where we are going drastically.

On the other hand that same whale could wake up and buy couple hundred million dollars worth of bitcoin and increase the market to a bull. We can never know what will happen, a new coin may start tomorrow and everyone would be hyped about it and want to get in and really just increase the price of it like mad people, also it can start and no one may not care and it would die slowly. This is crypto, do not try to understand or guess what will happen.

The direction was downwards most of the time, but the entire mid-December 2013 to August 2014 period was still spent in a sideways range. That's why when you zoom out on the 1-week chart and look at that period, it looks like a bull flag that eventually broke in the wrong direction.

The initial crash in December tagged $382 (Bitstamp). For the next 8 months, price stayed above that level except for one day in April 2014 when we wicked a lower low at $339. This is quite similar to the initial February 2018 crash to $5,920 where we tagged a lower low for only a few days ~ $5,780 in June. The rest of the last 8 months this year were spent in a range just like the first half of 2014. It's a very similar price structure. The only major difference is that 2018 was far less volatile than 2014 in terms of intraday and intraweek price action.

If we were to follow the same course as 2014, I would expect to see a mid-term bull trap develop from here.

Well regardless of if you consider crashing to be sideways, it never had a solid bottom that it hit multiple times and rejected over and over again like we've had this bear market. We shouldn't be looking for this crash to be the exact same as last crash, because it is obvious from the charts its been very different. This time there was a stable bottom that the bears hit repeatedly, from early in the bear market right up until when it ended at the end of the summer, and could never break. Last time there was the initial crash then it came back, then mtgox crashed it hard again then it came back again for a bit then it slowly lost steam down to the bottom. The two crashes are very different. In comparing crashes we should just be looking at a more zoomed out comparison to see overall trends, like we can see when it starts trading sideways that means it is bottoming and the next step is up whenever the market is ready. No reason to try to find specific drops between the two different markets because they are all very different. The only commonality is volatility while the bear market is on, a lack of volatility at the bottom when the bear market has ended. That's where we are at now, that's what 2015 was in the last cycle.

Not a bad read at all. I am not a fan of trying to predict exactly what the market would bring in the short term or in the long term though, but right from time, I have always been very bullish in the long term, which in this case, I believe that one way or the other we will get to see good growth. The issue is that some people tend to feed their eyes with the short term movements, instead of placing their focus on the long term instead. I would not expect something pretty huge this year though, but in the coming years, there is actually some possibilities of seeing the market testing new heights, but in all cases, only time will tell.

I do not see why the article should not be believed considering that we are actually still in a bullish market from long term perspective and considering that there is a huge possibility to see the market spike hugely in growth in the next few years, considering that we are going to have the next bitcoin halving by 2020 and we know that would reduce the miner's reward and eventually there would be some pretty good demand that would cause an increase in the market.

Moreover thing would turn out though, I guess at this point, we will just have to wait and see, but from all angle, BTC value is going to keep increasing in the long term, there is no doubt about that.

Is that what you got from the article?

They showed different approaches and opinions but it's only opinions of traders and analysts. It doesn't mean that these cycles will go on forever. At some point there will be a one last cycle because the value can't reach 1 million per coin. What if this cycle was the last one and 20000 USD will be remembered as the ATH of Bitcoin? The majority is usually wrong.

That's why i probably will sell at double top, as there is high chance it will reach the ath 1 more time

As for me, i don't totally believe any speculation now because of what I've seen this year. Anyways i do believe some...lol...Yeah there are some that do work out but generally this year has been full of sad and so we're all hoping for a greater upsurge and a brighter future ahead. Let's hope for the best. Nice article though. Tells a lot.

The value could easily reach $1 million considering how little supply there is available on exchanges. The more people hodl their coins for the long term, the less availability of supply there is. I'm not saying it will for sure reach that price, but it could.

Currently we're dealing with so many entities trying to get themselves up and running here, that we'll face a point at which the leading exchanges won't have hundreds of thousands of coins in their cold wallets anymore, but closer to a tenth of that figure. If you also take into consideration that these Bitcoins aren't just meant to be traded on the USD market but also on the altcoin market, you'll realize how little the supply actually is.

Imagine a time where governments and pension funds will finally get their feet wet, they'll usurp so much of the supply that the price could easily swing to $1 million per coin.

Why would they need to acquire more coins and make it go to 1 million if they can buy more satoshis at 10 thousand per Bitcoin? Look at it my way. You have Bitcoins at current price and want to introduce a million new investors to the market. Each of them will need to have some coins to be able to buy things. They could buy a million coins each driving the price much higher or they could buy 10% of the coins and use satoshis to trade. 1 Bitcoin at 1 million USD will be able to serve as a means of exchange to thousands of people. How many times in your life were you able to spend more than 10000 USD at once? Most people don't need to hold that much money and most people don't have large savings they only need to exchange coins every day but they don't hold them.