Bitcoin Forum

We are gradually heading to the festive period of the year, we are expected to use some of our bitcoin investments to take care of some personal and family needs. With the current status of the market do you see bitcoin rising up at the end of the year? Kindly give your reasons

If you will just surf all over the forum to the right section such as Speculation, you'll see same posts and threads that are discussing about this.

What everyone says is just the same. "Bitcoin will rise at the end of the year", "Bakkt will start the pump", "Bear market's will end soon".

The problem with that argument is that time has change and even though historically bitcoin surges before the end of the year, for me 2018 is quite different from previous years because investors has become smarter and FOMO is already a thing of the past. And even if we have positive news coming like the Bakkt offerings, but we will have to see how everything goes. So just don't put high hopes for another all-time-high is what I'm saying and be prepared so that you won't be disappointed at the end of the year.

What is Yuletide?Is this some kind of festival?
I believe that bitcoin might reach 10K USD by Christmass but nothing more.There are no signals for a massive growth and reaching another ATH.The bitcoin price goes up every December,we shouldn't expect the opposite to happen.

Google says its archaic term for Christmas
i dont know but there's no season when will the coin gain so much value, your just basing it off to last year price history, it might be different this year no one actually knows when will the price soars up, maybe when it starts gaining value like 1% increase everyday because that what happen last year it started off with 1% increase everyday, yeah it's just better to not assume anything.

Sideways for a while longer. I don't imagine that there will be any action remotely like Christmas 2017.

That time has changed and even though historically bitcoin surges before the end of the year. 2018 is quite different from previous years because investors has become smarter and FOMO is already a thing of the past. Bitcoin price goes up every December,we shouldn't expect the opposite to happen.

There are only two months left before the year ends. There is no signal of a huge rise yet. We all would like to see a big increse in the price but there is a possiblity of that not hapenning this year.

It still boils down to demand. If there's more demand then obviously we will see another break out run, unfortunately, it dried up so I don't see bitcoin making a good run this December. Its interesting to note though that the past couple of years, bitcoin seems to be very bullish specially at the end of the year but its going to be different this time. I advise you not to look at your bitcoin investments to take care of your needs during this holiday.


Exactly, its been trading sideways in the last couple of months and I think this trend will continue. Not unless there's news but I'm not seeing anything that will duplicate the craziness of 2017.

am i the only one who finds it really strange to see you talk about liquidating assets to "take care of needs"? it is like saying you will sell your stocks because it is the end of the year and you need to buy presents for the family members!
that doesn't make any sense to me. you either use the money you already have, the savings or the end of the year bonus or you take out the profit not the investment.

Hahhaha. Exactly, it looks like the OP has put his money on bitcoin market so that he can have a good Christmas season. However, things went for good to worst so the OP is really affected by the current shift of sentiments.

As others have mentioned, past performance doesn't mean future success and this is one classic example. Be flexible and don't rely on your investments so that you will have a better 2018 holidays. On the bright side, you still have 1 month to save and your Christmas bonus to burn.  ;D

Crypto market is one of the most volatile thing in the world, and predicting accurately what will happen in this market is very difficult. Anything can happen any time in this market. The market has gone down, but it is maintaining a stability now. Hopefully it will go up by the end of this year.

Before the festive season starts keep in mind that there's also this Black Friday November 23 and Cyber Monday that will happen by November 26. Cyber Monday is most anticipated one because there's a lot of discounts or sale that will happen and available only online so if a site accepts Cryptos, most likely demand will increase for Cryptos on that day. If you have a domain hosted by Namecheap, there's a big chance that they will offer discounts for renewal.

well it is not possible to speculate bitcoin like this in short term but all I can tell you that for the past 4 or 5 years that I have been on this forum I have seen that almost every year people start making the same speculation about bitcoin price drop close to holiday's with the same flawed reasoning about them selling their bitcoin "to take care of needs" but in the end we see that either no change happens in price or it rises up. although past performances don't guarantee the future trends but it is something to have in mind.

It is important to note that most of dealers who accept BTC as a means of payment are using the intermediary services, and they convert that coins to fiat. That actually means that all that spended coins only increase the supply on the market, which means price will not go up because people pay in crypto.

Only way price can go up is to people start buy coins for some reason, and this was usually the case at this time of year - but for now there are no indications that the end of this year can bring an increase in price. However we should not completely dismiss the possibility that something "good" will happen, but in my opinion the odds for it are 25% - it's more likely that price will stay stable as in previous months.

people are not going to buy bitcoin to then go right on to spending it somewhere else! even if the merchants give big discounts that still doesn't make sense because of the fees (2 major fees: fiat deposit fee from bank to buy bitcoin + % trading fee when exchanging that to bitcoin). so if price goes up it is going up only because of speculation and nothing else.

and as for dealers, if they use services such as Bitpay for instance for accepting bitcoin their coins won't be sold on exchanges. they will be sold elsewhere off the market so they will never affect anything about the price. and these services like Bitpay have enough liquidity that a small rise won't really change anything.

The impact is negligible with how payment gateways use different exchanges to pull out fiat, which directly results in a situation where their sales are distributed amongst several orderbooks and for that reason don't directly impact the market.

If you also take into consideration that most of the payment gateways actually prefer to hold their coins, then you'll realize that there is little to no selling pressure going on. What they do is short a small percentge of their sales to preserve their fiat value in case the price goes down. On top of that, BitPay needs coins as well, so they won't ever sell everything they have because of how certain merchants prefer partly BTC settlements instead of fiat in full.

Another thing is that if they do end up selling to take out fiat, they won't blindly dump their coins at once but will patiently wait for orders to pop up capable of absorbing their sales.

I don't see bitcoin getting some bullish activity even at the end of the year. There aren't any reason for the market to make a push and everyone seems to be waiting for some increase to offload some long overdue coins in their stash. Every single push is met with some kind of resistance immediately after a climb very recently. Also, demand at the end of the year is commonly low since everyone is on the sell side of the spectrum, just like what happened last year. Perhaps Q1 or Q2 2018 is where the action will commence once more (hopefully).

As of now we're facing a bear market which is why the prices of cryptocurrency is suffering but we're all in wait fot the inevitable bull that most of us are speculating about happening on the basis of the events in the past around the end of the year. Right now we're all just hoping our speculations are true and we do see thr bull happening but no one can be sure. All we can do right now is hope fot a turnover by years end.

Well, if we see the previous stats, if the rule is followed it's a possibility. But the volatility might come in the way, so can't be sure about anything.

I would say it depends on how things get to play out during or before the yuletide season. If we get to have some pretty good growth, with some chances of seeing the market make a huge move somehow to the upper side, and knowing there could be a correction afterwards for the mean time, before we continue with the uptrend in 2019, then I may likely sell, but not because I need money for some Yuletide, but because i need more money to increase my stash for the future. Pretty much that is what counts for me at this stage.

That's agreeable, we still have to wait for few days since one month is nearly approaching. This is a great and very crucial moments with bitcoin, and if we have to compare from previous year during November, many traders and holders enjoyed checking their graphical trend then do day trades. This was due to fast changing price caused by quick buy and sell activities.

I believe when people will gather together at family diners (where they last year mostly discuss Bitcoin), they will avoid talk about BTC. If they will will mainly talk about how much loss they made and explain everyone that buying Bitcoin was worst decision in their life. Negative sentiment around Bitcoin will just increase to next level to the next year.

I'm actually not aware of how well willing people are to discuss things related to crypto with family members, especially when it comes to investments that resulted in severe losses.

Sure, some are very open to talk about what they have and what they made in profits, but most people that I know always say that they either aren't interested in crypto (while they in reality are), or they bought high sold low.

Most people are rightfully afraid of ill minded individuals and for that reason prefer to not talk about it at all. It might not directly look like it, but crypto holders are walking targets with how it exploded in popularity.

Seasonal patterns been brought up before. They certainly seemed to fall in line with Christmas spending or even end of year celebrations but I always felt that people who spend on this season anyway get bonuses so doesn't make much sense that they'd liquidate Bitcoin, certainly not so close to the day itself, given the shopping needs to happen way earlier.

If anything, had I ever earned bonuses, I'd be buying more Bitcoin, instead of selling. More Bitcoiners outside Western Europe and North America too, who perhaps don't spend as much this particular season?

I have fiat on ground to take care of family business and responsibilities, I basically see my bitcoin as a long term hold, and even though I trade the long term, unless I see bitcoin doing some pretty good change in trend and there is a possibility of a change in trend downward, I would not sell my bitcoin for anything. Normally, I have never considered selling my bitcoin stash at any point in time now, except that I am using my trading knowledge to just increase the stash for the long run. Therefore, yuletide season or not, I am still doing pretty great without having to get bitcoin involved yet in my spending.

Well, it is the market, we still have 2 months like you said it, and it is not a new thing to always consider the fact that there is always going to be a breakout somehow, and if it leads upward, there is always the chance that we might get to see the market making some pretty good move upward as a result. which the volatility as we all know tend to increase on breakouts and can start getting to see FOMO kick in all over again, which I would not be surprised to see us go test the previous ATH. However things get to turn out though, we will just have to wait and see how the yuletide season will all be playing out.

Thank you for the explanation, I did not know that payment gateways actually work in such a way - It did not make any sense to me that they will hold most of coins when in the same time they need to pay merchants in fiat, but their strategy obviously makes sense and makes them profit.

In any case buying things with BTC according to what you wrote actually has virtually no influence on price, so this is something we can not count on.

exactly this. i think OP is only speculating not explaining what HE is about to do. and this seems to be a common speculation which is always proven  wrong but they keep repeating it next time.
the fact is people get bonuses and use that to to their purchases and if they are left with additional money they will invest in it bitcoin not the other way around.

I mean, sure, even I will probably spend a little bit more Bitcoin than usual, gifts and holidays so travel will be significant expenditure, that sort of thing. But I'm earning in Bitcoin, so it's just typical extra spending. Anyone not earning in Bitcoin would probably want to use up cash first, Bitcoin later. And that goes with any expenditure pattern. So yes, increased spending end of year, but most of that will be in fiat and cash. If there's any rise in Bitcoin spending, it'll only rise in tandem with cash.

;D I can imagine what that would be like, when most people who came in last year, joining the FOMO start sharing their experiences or how they have felt over the years. It is one of those things anyway. I would not be expecting too much for bitcoin before the end of the year, and even if we manage to have some pretty good movement upward, I am pretty sure, we may just likely see something not too much and before we can start seeing anything serious, I will rather be looking at next year instead. For now, let's just see how the whole Yuletide will go, but all in all, it is still going to be an enjoyable experience in the long run.

Most people who are so keen about the future that bitcoin holds will never consider selling at any point at all, unless for when it is oversold, and you are taking advantage of the trend anyway like we had last year, with the inevitable correction that was most definitely expected. For this year, bitcoin has been in its lows, and I believe even if we see some upward movement, it may not really be that much as some people may be expecting actually. However, it is though, time will most definitely give us the answer to our expectations before the end of the year, but I would not put so many minds to it.

Well, last year Bitcoin was center of conversations at Thanksgiving and Christmas. Yes I guess people are more willing to talk when they get enormous profits then when they get enormous losses.  My point is that whoever expect this family times will influence good on Bitcoin prices is extremely wrong.

Well, I don't expect much about it because time now is different. Crypto users seems to be more careful and others are probably been expecting that this quarter, they can see a bull run. Corrections have been made which we definitely heard about and this is why the value of it gets stuck. But I am still positive about the outcome of this technology because this will helps us a lot especially about transaction process.

Yeah there might be wrong expectations to happen further, but we need to be more positive this time because the whales will going to take over the market soon. Just prepare and don't ever lose your grip on crypto, be strong and have courage.

I am totally positive about Bitcoin.  But I am not positive about end of this year and start of next. Overall I dont expect price will be much different half year from now, maybe even whole year. Yes it will go up and down a bit but overall will be about where it is now