Bitcoin Forum

I saw this article in my twitter feed; t'was interesting. The S&P500 is now more volatile than bitcoin.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-02/s-p-500-s-wild-ride-makes-u-s-stocks-more-volatile-than-bitcoin

Methinks that the increase in bitcoin adoption has done its work in reducing volatility.

it has reduced the volatility but not in this way. this reduction of volatility means it no longer is going to rise from ~$200 to ~$1200 in a month (6x rise). and this current stability is somewhat common. we have had this in the past and pretty soon the rise will start again and a couple of months after that we will see price shoot up again.

but it is interesting to have this kind of dead stable price that lasts months!

Well yeah, going from 200$ to 400$ (increase of 200$) is a 100% increase and going from 1000$ to 1200$ (increase of 200$) is a 20% increase. But I agree, volatile bullish runs followed by non-volatile bearish price movements.

Indeed, it gives me time to buy more bitcoin, as I only found out about it a year ago, which is I may not be knowledgeable about the past:

I read somewhere that despite the adoption of gold over the years, the value still fluctuated with a level of volatility.
While bitcoin has been stable over the course of the year, it still has that potential to fluctuate widely in a short period of time. By making positive or negative movements in the chart.

But undoubtedly, stability has greatly increased.

I think this is because of central bank inflation which causes the change in price of gold.

I'm not really sure if what we're witnessing is a increase in bitcoin adoption that causes the price to be stable. Do you have any facts about how closer are we in terms of adoption? I mean are there any stats about how many merchants have been adopting bitcoin as payment method? Or how many people are using bitcoin as a base currency?

I think the stability that we have been seeing is not due to bitcoin adoption increasing but rather investors getting smarter and won't simply FOMO as compare to last year's madness. Majority is just waiting and looking for signs of another break out run before joining again. But since we haven't seen any news that will change the current course, there's no money coming in, or demands = supply in simply terms, that why no noticeable movement is seen in the last 4-5 months.

The "adoption of gold"?Are you buying stuff at the grocery store using gold? ;D
The gold price volatility isn't caused by the gold itslef.It's caused by the US Federal Reserve's money printing machine.The bitcoin price volatility is way different,but the US money printing machine will increase it's influence over the bitcoin price for sure.

fiat is more volatile than bitcoin

but fiat hides it well. but reality reveals itself
remember the good old days where a piece of land was $10k. now its like $50k-$1mill+)
remember a loaf of bread was 20cents then $2 then (walmart)'rolled back' then inflated again
remember when new york upstate minimum wage was the same as inner and outer city minimum wage.. oh wait.. its always different

(im a brit. dont knitpick exact numbers. just understand the concept of the whole inflation and also the consumer goods and minimum wages gameplay)

volatile and velocity are 2 different things
  /\
 /  \
/    \=velocity

/\/\/\=volitile

____=stable

try going shop to shop for bread or milk. nothings the exact same
try going house to house for rent/lease/mortgage. nothings the exact same
try going state to state for minimum wage. nothings the exact same

Volatility in bitcoin is lesser presently.  People holding bitcoin are not ready to sell it at present prices.  Because most of them waiting to touch 2017 levels.   Buyers / investors are not injecting their funds fearing uncertainty prevailing in the market. 

it was only last year that bitcoin rose 2600% in price. then it dropped 71% in price this year. how does that compare to the stock market? ;)

these news sites are just generating clickbait headlines. stocks experienced some short term volatility, while bitcoin experienced the opposite. not much of a story. within a few months, and certainly by the time bitcoin enters another bubble cycle, bloomberg will be singing a different tune.

The main reason for rejecting Bitcoin futures is that it was very volatile. now it turns out that they must accept them because it has ceased to be volatile?

I wouldn't call this exactly a click bait, it is mostly a mistake and it is a common one. and this mistake is looking at bitcoin only in its short term instead of looking at the big picture. that "zoomed in" analysis may work with other markets like stocks market but it never works with bitcoin.
what everyone needs to realize is that bitcoin market is unique like bitcoin itself and it follows its own rules and trends,... which means it shouldn't be compared with others.

The months of stability could mean that bitcoin has fallen into more hodler hands with better distribution now. This gives it a better argument for passing ETF

It's probably more because of people choosing to hold their coins:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-31/only-1-in-4-bitcoins-moved-between-addresses-in-past-six-months?srnd=cryptocurrencies

The bear market probably discouraged speculators from trading Bitcoin actively, but that's just conjecture on my part. I don't think it has as much to do with adoption than the current market climate. It's definitely nowhere near large enough to shake off its past volatility issues.

Maybe it does because of the adoption.

It is kind of boring though when I see this type of bitcoin or other crypto currency, some prefer it that way.
I think it may just be for this year.
You are preducting a 20k at 2020 so you are also thinking that kind of tweet is impossible to happen in the next years to come. You may want another volatile bitcoin to reach your target price.

it is happening because of adoption but not at this scale. with more adoption the market will obviously grow and that decreases the manipulation effect of the whales so as a result it will reduce the volatility but we are still not at that point of full stability that you can hope for a currency.

I think governments setup inflation rates in a way that the perception of time and lack of purchasing power of money is subtle enough that the average citizen thinks that the price is stable.

They know that with around $50 bucks you will be able to buy the average weekly expenses on the grocery store next week, because people think very short term, which is why most people missed and will keep on missing on bitcoin.

Specially young people have no perspective on this. Only older people are nostalgic about former purchasing power.

This is only a short term period, volatility will increase again with time and then it will be much more than the S&P. The last 6 months are not exactly the most representative period for both of Bitcoin and the S&P with one enjoying near record lows of volatility and the other the opposite. I don't believe that adoption has anything to do with lower volatility, I think it's decreased interest and futures playing their part.

Worldwide inflation rate really kicks in and right all are affected by this kind of decrease in the market, That is why many are asking about bitcoin to be stable right now, Many are really thinking this way right now and I think that this kind of stableness on bitcoin will not simply last and we can see in this stableness will subside and volatility will still kick in, I think that the price is OK for the meantime and in my opinion in the coming impending holidays the price will surely change and decrease a bit it is my opinion regarding that time of the year were everyone is busy decorating and preparing for the feast.

I don't see much importance in holidays. I'm more curious about how tax sales are going to affect the market in January, especially with how we deal with more legal entities being active in this space than ever before.

It definitely won't be as bad as it was last year with how the price tanked in January and February, but there might be another test of the $5800 level in the worst case. Volatility will definitely boost in that scenario.

The easiest way to get people back to the market is to have the price dip under $6000 again, because that's what many believe to be the ultimate bottom. We'll see where it goes, but I'm open to anything and well prepared with a bunch of fiat to spend.

In December we'll have Bakkt, I believe we'll have a push around January which could level out potential sales to cover tax obligations.

Bakkt has got me excited since I learned that the contracts must be backed out by underlying asset (basically in this case it means there must always be bitcoin being bought and held ready, not just some empty promise). Assuming the platform starts getting volume quickly, I don't see how the price shouldn't start going up short after.

I would not have guess that. I would assume stocks would be quite strict and not move as much, maybe because bitcoin has been really stable for the past 5 months but in reality bitcoin looks a lot more volatile than stocks on any given day.

Apparently I was wrong, it is interesting to see "crypto" as the more stable option of investment over stocks, even saying that makes me giggle a bit, no one could possible imagine this would happen.

This is the currency that moved from hundreds to thousands, thousands to millions and now billions of dollars of marketcap in couple years and stocks are just, well stocks they do get 20% if you are lucky and that is about it. Interesting to see how this finance world react to it and get in on bitcoin according to this knowledge.

On the other hand, it might be due to the reduction in adoption that have made the price of bitcoin be less volatile at this time. Because at the time when the price of bitcoin as touching $15,000 the massive publicity that greeted that was overwhelming both the positive ones and the negative ones which led to more people buying and more increase in the price of bitcoin but when the tides changes, coming with bans or regulated advertisement from various social media platforms, government cracking down on crypto currencies, top influencers in the world of finance ranging from CEOs, to entrepreneurs and legends making some statements on the contrary, the adoption movement began to suffer some serious setbacks which is what the market is yet to recover from.