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Title: What's after the terrahash? Post by: stsbrad on March 08, 2014, 04:27:31 PM With the exponential growth of mining power, what comes after the terrahash? In three years where do you think mining will be? Is the last coin generation estimate of 2140 variable?
Thanks! Title: Re: What's after the terrahash? Post by: ChuckBuck on March 08, 2014, 05:38:23 PM Petahash?
Is this a rhetorical question? If so, basically the home miner will die out due to increasing electrical costs with little to no ROI. Serious mining will definitely move into the datacenter. 2014 will probably be the death of the hobby miner. Title: Re: What's after the terrahash? Post by: BurtW on March 08, 2014, 05:46:54 PM The current best estimate for the next halving date is: 2016-08-30 07:54:41 UTC (129 weeks, 2 days, 18 hours, 10 minutes)
If the network had produced 6 blocks per hour the halving date should have been about: 2017-01-01 So you can see it (and therefore the final end date) has been "pulled in" by about 3 months so far. Title: Re: What's after the terrahash? Post by: stsbrad on March 08, 2014, 05:53:49 PM Thanks for the responses. It's going to be strange one day when asics are looked upon the same as CPU mining.
Title: Re: What's after the terrahash? Post by: cloverme on March 09, 2014, 02:49:27 AM The current best estimate for the next halving date is: 2016-08-30 07:54:41 UTC (129 weeks, 2 days, 18 hours, 10 minutes) If the network had produced 6 blocks per hour the halving date should have been about: 2017-01-01 So you can see it (and therefore the final end date) has been "pulled in" by about 3 months so far. I wonder if the price of BTC will rise with the halving.... Title: Re: What's after the terrahash? Post by: pjviitas on March 09, 2014, 05:28:08 AM Petahash? Is this a rhetorical question? If so, basically the home miner will die out due to increasing electrical costs with little to no ROI. Serious mining will definitely move into the datacenter. 2014 will probably be the death of the hobby miner. Even datacenters will be unprofitable before the end of 2015 No matter how you slice it...difficulty will be forced to level out. Title: Re: What's after the terrahash? Post by: zimmah on March 10, 2014, 04:10:08 PM Petahash? Is this a rhetorical question? If so, basically the home miner will die out due to increasing electrical costs with little to no ROI. Serious mining will definitely move into the datacenter. 2014 will probably be the death of the hobby miner. Even datacenters will be unprofitable before the end of 2015 No matter how you slice it...difficulty will be forced to level out. It will stabilize. If it's too unprofitable, less people will invest in miners. Less investing in miners means less production and development of miners, which means difficulty will not go up as fast, which means miners will once again become profitable, which will start a new wave of people interested, which will again result in miners becoming unprofitable, repeat.. Oh and by the way:
Title: Re: What's after the terrahash? Post by: The Bitcoin Foundation on March 11, 2014, 09:07:31 AM Petahash? Is this a rhetorical question? If so, basically the home miner will die out due to increasing electrical costs with little to no ROI. Serious mining will definitely move into the datacenter. 2014 will probably be the death of the hobby miner. Even datacenters will be unprofitable before the end of 2015 No matter how you slice it...difficulty will be forced to level out. What is price rises? = back in business Title: Re: What's after the terrahash? Post by: pjviitas on March 11, 2014, 02:36:35 PM Petahash? Is this a rhetorical question? If so, basically the home miner will die out due to increasing electrical costs with little to no ROI. Serious mining will definitely move into the datacenter. 2014 will probably be the death of the hobby miner. Even datacenters will be unprofitable before the end of 2015 No matter how you slice it...difficulty will be forced to level out. What is price rises? = back in business It won't matter...you simply won't be able to power the facility. Before the end of 2015 you will need a heavy industrial service to power a data centre. These types of services are at transmission voltage and are typically reserved for powering entire cities or heavy industrial facilities such as vehicle assembly and production plants. I havn't run the number but I am guessing there will simply no way on the planet to power a mining facility. The only way that difficulty can continue to rise is improvements in technology...in other words better than 1W/GHs. Title: Re: What's after the terrahash? Post by: BurtW on March 11, 2014, 04:27:54 PM I havn't run the number but I am guessing ... Instead of guessing why not just run the numbers? Is that because the numbers do not agree with your guess? Title: Re: What's after the terrahash? Post by: pjviitas on March 11, 2014, 04:32:59 PM I havn't run the number Instead of guessing why not just run the numbers? Is that because the numbers do not agree with your guess? How many GHs do you think will be required by the end of 2015 in order to earn 1BTC a month? Title: Re: What's after the terrahash? Post by: BurtW on March 11, 2014, 04:36:27 PM I havn't run the number but I am guessing ... Instead of guessing why not just run the numbers? Is that because the numbers do not agree with your guess? How many GHs do you think will be required by the end of 2015 in order to earn 1BTC a month? You tell me. You are the one making the claim: I havn't run the number but I am guessing there will simply no way on the planet to power a mining facility. How did you come to this? What numbers did you use? Title: Re: What's after the terrahash? Post by: pjviitas on March 11, 2014, 05:26:51 PM I havn't run the number but I am guessing ... Instead of guessing why not just run the numbers? Is that because the numbers do not agree with your guess? How many GHs do you think will be required by the end of 2015 in order to earn 1BTC a month? You tell me. You are the one making the claim: I havn't run the number but I am guessing there will simply no way on the planet to power a mining facility. How did you come to this? What numbers did you use? Can we assume 20% every 2 weeks? Title: Re: What's after the terrahash? Post by: jamesc760 on March 12, 2014, 08:05:56 PM I'd assume 25% increase every 12 days.
Title: Re: What's after the terrahash? Post by: BurtW on March 12, 2014, 08:54:54 PM The average over this data set is 23.04% every 11.41 days so let's use that.
Code: Date Difficulty Change Hash Rate ------------ ------------- ------ --------------- Feb 28, 2014 3,815,723,799 21.92% 27,314,015 GH/s Feb 17, 2014 3,129,573,175 19.39% 22,402,357 GH/s Feb 05, 2014 2,621,404,453 19.49% 18,764,744 GH/s Jan 24, 2014 2,193,847,870 22.59% 15,704,175 GH/s Jan 13, 2014 1,789,546,951 26.16% 12,810,076 GH/s Jan 02, 2014 1,418,481,395 20.12% 10,153,885 GH/s Dec 21, 2013 1,180,923,195 30.01% 8,453,378 GH/s Dec 10, 2013 908,350,862 28.41% 6,502,229 GH/s Nov 29, 2013 707,408,283 16.07% 5,063,826 GH/s Nov 17, 2013 609,482,680 19.29% 4,362,847 GH/s Nov 05, 2013 510,929,738 30.70% 3,657,378 GH/s Oct 26, 2013 390,928,788 46.02% 2,798,377 GH/s Oct 16, 2013 267,731,249 41.45% 1,916,495 GH/s Oct 06, 2013 189,281,249 27.19% 1,354,928 GH/s Sep 25, 2013 148,819,200 32.13% 1,065,289 GH/s Sep 14, 2013 112,628,549 29.56% 806,227 GH/s Sep 04, 2013 86,933,018 32.22% 622,291 GH/s Aug 24, 2013 65,750,060 29.40% 470,657 GH/s Aug 13, 2013 50,810,339 35.88% 363,715 GH/s Aug 03, 2013 37,392,766 19.63% 267,668 GH/s Jul 22, 2013 31,256,961 19.47% 223,746 GH/s Jul 11, 2013 26,162,876 22.63% 187,281 GH/s Jun 29, 2013 21,335,329 10.32% 152,724 GH/s Jun 16, 2013 19,339,258 23.92% 138,436 GH/s Jun 05, 2013 15,605,633 28.41% 111,709 GH/s May 25, 2013 12,153,412 8.64% 86,998 GH/s May 12, 2013 11,187,257 11.03% 80,082 GH/s Apr 30, 2013 10,076,293 12.28% 72,129 GH/s Apr 17, 2013 8,974,296 16.96% 64,241 GH/s Apr 05, 2013 7,673,000 14.59% 54,925 GH/s Mar 24, 2013 6,695,826 38.13% 47,931 GH/s Mar 14, 2013 4,847,647 10.98% 34,701 GH/s Mar 01, 2013 4,367,876 19.63% 31,266 GH/s Feb 18, 2013 3,651,012 11.47% 26,135 GH/s Feb 05, 2013 3,275,465 10.33% 23,447 GH/s Title: Re: What's after the terrahash? Post by: pjviitas on March 13, 2014, 01:19:53 AM The average over this data set is 23.04% every 11.41 days so let's use that. Code: Date Difficulty Change Hash Rate ------------ ------------- ------ --------------- Feb 28, 2014 3,815,723,799 21.92% 27,314,015 GH/s Feb 17, 2014 3,129,573,175 19.39% 22,402,357 GH/s Feb 05, 2014 2,621,404,453 19.49% 18,764,744 GH/s Jan 24, 2014 2,193,847,870 22.59% 15,704,175 GH/s Jan 13, 2014 1,789,546,951 26.16% 12,810,076 GH/s Jan 02, 2014 1,418,481,395 20.12% 10,153,885 GH/s Dec 21, 2013 1,180,923,195 30.01% 8,453,378 GH/s Dec 10, 2013 908,350,862 28.41% 6,502,229 GH/s Nov 29, 2013 707,408,283 16.07% 5,063,826 GH/s Nov 17, 2013 609,482,680 19.29% 4,362,847 GH/s Nov 05, 2013 510,929,738 30.70% 3,657,378 GH/s Oct 26, 2013 390,928,788 46.02% 2,798,377 GH/s Oct 16, 2013 267,731,249 41.45% 1,916,495 GH/s Oct 06, 2013 189,281,249 27.19% 1,354,928 GH/s Sep 25, 2013 148,819,200 32.13% 1,065,289 GH/s Sep 14, 2013 112,628,549 29.56% 806,227 GH/s Sep 04, 2013 86,933,018 32.22% 622,291 GH/s Aug 24, 2013 65,750,060 29.40% 470,657 GH/s Aug 13, 2013 50,810,339 35.88% 363,715 GH/s Aug 03, 2013 37,392,766 19.63% 267,668 GH/s Jul 22, 2013 31,256,961 19.47% 223,746 GH/s Jul 11, 2013 26,162,876 22.63% 187,281 GH/s Jun 29, 2013 21,335,329 10.32% 152,724 GH/s Jun 16, 2013 19,339,258 23.92% 138,436 GH/s Jun 05, 2013 15,605,633 28.41% 111,709 GH/s May 25, 2013 12,153,412 8.64% 86,998 GH/s May 12, 2013 11,187,257 11.03% 80,082 GH/s Apr 30, 2013 10,076,293 12.28% 72,129 GH/s Apr 17, 2013 8,974,296 16.96% 64,241 GH/s Apr 05, 2013 7,673,000 14.59% 54,925 GH/s Mar 24, 2013 6,695,826 38.13% 47,931 GH/s Mar 14, 2013 4,847,647 10.98% 34,701 GH/s Mar 01, 2013 4,367,876 19.63% 31,266 GH/s Feb 18, 2013 3,651,012 11.47% 26,135 GH/s Feb 05, 2013 3,275,465 10.33% 23,447 GH/s So to make one Bitcoin a month that works out to: Date Difficulty H/s March 12, 2014 4,249,658,360 278E+009 March 23, 2014 5,228,779,646 342E+009 April 3, 2014 6,433,490,477 421E+009 April 15, 2014 7,915,766,682 518E+009 April 26, 2014 9,739,559,326 637E+009 May 8, 2014 11,983,553,795 784E+009 May 19, 2014 14,744,564,589 964E+009 May 30, 2014 18,141,712,270 1E+012 June 11, 2014 22,321,562,778 1E+012 June 22, 2014 27,464,450,841 2E+012 July 4, 2014 33,792,260,315 2E+012 July 15, 2014 41,577,997,092 3E+012 July 26, 2014 51,157,567,622 3E+012 August 7, 2014 62,944,271,202 4E+012 August 18, 2014 77,446,631,287 5E+012 August 30, 2014 95,290,335,136 6E+012 September 10, 2014 117,245,228,351 8E+012 September 21, 2014 144,258,528,963 9E+012 October 3, 2014 177,495,694,036 12E+012 October 14, 2014 218,390,701,942 14E+012 October 26, 2014 268,707,919,669 18E+012 November 6, 2014 330,618,224,361 22E+012 November 18, 2014 406,792,663,254 27E+012 November 29, 2014 500,517,692,868 33E+012 December 10, 2014 615,836,969,304 40E+012 December 22, 2014 757,725,807,032 50E+012 January 2, 2015 932,305,832,972 61E+012 January 14, 2015 1,147,109,096,889 75E+012 January 25, 2015 1,411,403,032,812 92E+012 February 5, 2015 1,736,590,291,572 114E+012 February 17, 2015 2,136,700,694,751 140E+012 February 28, 2015 2,628,996,534,821 172E+012 March 12, 2015 3,234,717,336,444 212E+012 March 23, 2015 3,979,996,210,761 260E+012 April 3, 2015 4,896,987,337,720 320E+012 April 15, 2015 6,025,253,220,331 394E+012 April 26, 2015 7,413,471,562,295 485E+012 May 8, 2015 9,121,535,410,248 597E+012 May 19, 2015 11,223,137,168,769 734E+012 May 30, 2015 13,808,947,972,453 903E+012 June 11, 2015 16,990,529,585,306 1E+015 June 22, 2015 20,905,147,601,761 1E+015 July 4, 2015 25,721,693,609,206 2E+015 July 15, 2015 31,647,971,816,767 2E+015 July 27, 2015 38,939,664,523,350 3E+015 August 7, 2015 47,911,363,229,530 3E+015 August 18, 2015 58,950,141,317,614 4E+015 August 30, 2015 72,532,253,877,192 5E+015 September 10, 2015 89,243,685,170,498 6E+015 September 22, 2015 109,805,430,233,780 7E+015 October 3, 2015 135,104,601,359,643 9E+015 October 14, 2015 166,232,701,512,905 11E+015 October 26, 2015 204,532,715,941,478 13E+015 November 6, 2015 251,657,053,694,395 16E+015 November 18, 2015 309,638,838,865,583 20E+015 November 29, 2015 380,979,627,340,214 25E+015 December 10, 2015 468,757,333,479,399 31E+015 December 22, 2015 576,759,023,113,052 38E+015 At 1W/GHs that works out to 38MW. The datacenter that ran this would need a heavy industrial service similar to what is used to run a full sized pulp and paper mill or small city or town. Title: Re: What's after the terrahash? Post by: BurtW on March 16, 2014, 01:25:50 PM I have created a response to your numbers in the following thead since I think this speculation deserves its own thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=518111.0 Title: Re: What's after the terrahash? Post by: jeppe on March 23, 2014, 08:05:42 PM i will still continue to mine even when mining becomes unprofitable it has become a great funnn!!!
Title: Re: What's after the terrahash? Post by: zimmah on March 23, 2014, 11:01:50 PM Code: Date Difficulty Change Hash Rate ------------ ------------- ------ --------------- December 22, 2015 576,759,023,113,052 38E+015 At 1W/GHs that works out to 38MW. The datacenter that ran this would need a heavy industrial service similar to what is used to run a full sized pulp and paper mill or small city or town. there are already miners on the market with ~0.65W/GH and these are just 28nm by 2015 we will likely be on 20nm or even 14nm which will probably be close to ~0.45W/GH (20nm) or ~0.35W/GH (14nm) Maybe the mining will largely shift to cloudmining as well (large mining facilities in industrial areas that rent mining contracts much like cex.io) , although that would introduce centralization to some degree. Title: Re: What's after the terrahash? Post by: pjviitas on March 24, 2014, 03:34:36 AM Code: Date Difficulty Change Hash Rate ------------ ------------- ------ --------------- December 22, 2015 576,759,023,113,052 38E+015 At 1W/GHs that works out to 38MW. The datacenter that ran this would need a heavy industrial service similar to what is used to run a full sized pulp and paper mill or small city or town. there are already miners on the market with ~0.65W/GH and these are just 28nm by 2015 we will likely be on 20nm or even 14nm which will probably be close to ~0.45W/GH (20nm) or ~0.35W/GH (14nm) Maybe the mining will largely shift to cloudmining as well (large mining facilities in industrial areas that rent mining contracts much like cex.io) , although that would introduce centralization to some degree. Its one thing to have miners with advanced technology and quite another to have miners in quantity with advanced technology. Title: Re: What's after the terrahash? Post by: Lamber on March 24, 2014, 04:11:46 PM It should still be profitable for those who does not pay for electricity.
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