Bitcoin Forum

Ok, lets do the math, today bitcoin is $68 BIlllion USA capitalization, yep that is a lot of money.

But in 2017 the crypt capitalization was north of $800 BUILLION USA, so where did 95% of the wealth go? Did it just 'evaporate'.

Now the morons who pump&dump btc on this site are saying, ... its coming back, but how?

In 2017 they pumped&dumped btc on CHINA, USA, Europe, africa, korea, singapore, aussie, ... everywhere on earth people used their credit-cards who had no money, to BUY BTC,

Now these people have lost all their money, they still OWE on this debt,

How in the  hell is it coming back??

Who in the hell is going to bring a NEW $800 BILLION USD back to the btc table??

From 2009 to 2014, ok btc bounced $1 to $400, that's fine, total capitilization was in the millions, and that was easy to replace, but now $800 billion USD is more than the GDP of most countrys,

Also the FED-RES is no longer doing QE, a lot of the money that made its way to BTC was that post 2008, the FED printed $4 Trillion USD and dumped it on the world, so a lot of that money, trickled to BTC, ...

BUT now the FED has quit QE, its no coming back.

There is NO way in hell, its infinitely impossible for bitcoin to go back to even $5k, in all probability it might stop at $1k, but its most likely to just keep drifting back to $400.

btc is manipulated. u can't tell if it's up or down. but u can tell is gold dumps and stocks dump. goes into cryptocurrency.  hopes and dreams. print money 3 years from now it goes to cryptocurrency. hopefully it hits 1 trillion. the longer we are here cryptocurrency evolves. blockchain gets smarter. log scale. network effect happen s

this is a good argument.

i recommend selling your BTC's since we are going back to 400$  :D

anyway if the "crypto sphere" technologies/adoptions/innovations will decay back to 2013 levels i fully agree.

the only thing that your constant spam on bitcointalk on hourly basis is making me think is if you believed in 10% of the things you are posting here then why in the world are you even on this "bitcoin" forum wasting your time?

BTC market capitalization can be $10 Trillion USD if they print another $100 trillion USD for all i care

billion...trillion doesn't matter anymore...keep printing them until i can wipe my ass with it  ;)

That might be the cornerstone to your argument made of cardboard, the FED doesnt really determine anything in an economy by themselves.   They might fix interest rates at a certain point, but they need support to that point or in the end their actions are just press releases that would have no parallel to effective rates available.   I look at them like weather forecasters, could be useful resource of sorts if reflecting real factors.

   The QE program is not unwound, thats the important part to observing effects.   We're at the point where they stop putting coal in the steam engine, the train isnt going to stop as theres massive inertia in play and the buffers are Washington DC.   So far as I know they'll always raise the debt ceiling, always spend more and are unable to really stop QE imo because thats a very sharp painful stop.    QE is nowhere close to over when its such a large amount on the books still.    To really 'quit QE'  we need a fiscal budget in surplus and able to repurchase the debt.    Then you have brakes of some sort and can be reducing the debt, controlling rates even

tl;dr weak dollar decade >

Good Points,

One Additional point is that people were using Credit Cards to purchase BTC during the rise to $20000,
The Banks have since blocked credit card purchases of BTC , allowing only debit card purchases.
This removes a major influx of money that BTC was seeing and it will not be coming back, as the banks are blocking it.  

FYI:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/petertchir/2018/02/04/are-americans-buying-bitcoin-on-credit/#3320fbce1e48
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/05/credit-card-ban-regulator-scrutiny-latest-challenges-for-bitcoin.html?&qsearchterm=BITCOIN%20CREDIT%20CARD%20PURCHASE

hmmmm...no more credit purchases after BTC crashed but there are credit purchases during bubble...congratulations new debt slaves

to the people stupid enough to buy BTC on credit..learn your lesson.

meanwhile FUD is all around the media and forums to scare people specially those who bought on credit

The banks banned buying bitcoin on credit-cards last Dec 2017, that's largely the reason that price collapsed after that point, as new money quit flowing into the ponzi.

From a theoretical point of view, you never buy a 50/50 on margin ( debt ), in this case 100%, the 'kelly criterion' says to invest ZERO on a 50/50, because on on the second bet of 50/50 you can be subject to 'gamblers ruin' total loss. What the morons did is bet in a 50/50 game with OPM ( other peoples money ), now that means they're in deep shit.

Experts always exit a parabolic rise of any financial time-series, but in the case of the bitcoin ponzi morons were told to "HODL" all the way to the top of the parabolic rise ( which always end in collapse )

I don't really think that it is all true ,
We could always check the marketcap for the capitalization of crypto market,

I read that the banks were seeing as much as a -80% default on these credit-card purchases, seems that OUR HODL'r (MORONS), not only maxx'd their cards, but they max'd a bunch of them certain that BTC was going to the moon, and they got their friends to max the cards, ... so the banks closed the door, but its been very quiet on the defaults, I suspect that even though the default rate is astronomical, still on average credit-card purchase with BTC was less than 5% of aggregrate, but still that's a lot of non-performing loans, and its a certainty that anybody who buys bitcoin with a credit-card is a loser & flake.( in the mind of the book-keepers )

I guess that you don't know how market capitalization works.Having a 800 billion USD market cap doesn't mean that there are 800 billion USD worth of cash in the market.Even 10 billion USD in cash can create a 800 billion market cap.It's all about circulation of the money.
The amounf of noobs,that will buy the hype will never end.It might decrease for a while,but it will never end.
FED will keep priniting money untill the end of days.A new stock market crisis is coming and they will start the printing machine again.

I don't understand the point here.  The total market capitalization has nothing to do with how much money is available--and you have to realize that the US dollar isn't the only currency in the world; it just so happens that when you state how much all the bitcoin available is worth, it's denominated in US dollars.  It doesn't matter if the total market cap exceeds all the dollars in the world. 

There have been single companies whose market caps have been greater than the GDPs of some of the smaller countries in the world.  So? 

And to those who say the bitcoin market is manipulated:  EVERYTHING is manipulated to some extent; it just depends on who is doing the manipulation.  If you think the game is rigged, don't play.  But there are enough bitcoin investors now such that there aren't too many whales who can single-handedly move the market at will.  Are there some?  Yes.  But that certainly does not mean you can't make money with bitcoin.

I wish more people took some basic to intermediate economics courses in college, because I tend to see a lot of ignorance and spouting of untruths around here.  The problem is that a lot of people are also ignorant and may listen to those who spout their own misunderstandings about how things work.  Ignorance then can spread like a virus.  Education is a vaccine for that, and I think more people should avail themselves of that inoculation.

A few points.

The total market cap during a bubble is never accurate. Basically any ICO can launch at a very high valuation and it can easily have a 9 figure market cap. Given the amount of ICOs released during last years quarter it wouldn't surprise me if there were dozens and dozens of these ICOs with inflated market cap.

Second, the reason why Credit card companies banned crypto purchases was due to fraud. People were getting their computers hacked, bought bitcoin with someone's credit card and when it was approved by coinbase, they withdrew it. The banks had to take the hit since the "customer says he never heard of bitcoin and never purchased it".

I am pretty sure this was a very small percentage but to save the headache they just banned crypto purchases all together with CCs. Shortly afterwards you could still do purchases by a debit card instead of a credit card.

Will you do the honor of selling th bitcoin first?Lol but you are right,that if this is wayback 2013 OP must be on the right track,but we are in the near 2020 now and things changing same as the mentality of the investors,those whos in losses from the 2017 hype is just a part of the worldwide prospective investors so if you are asking when will be the another $800billion might come,then the answer is just wait and see because for sure if the popularity of crypto spreads the workd then you will see in sooner

All your math is based only on that people have been using credit cards to invest in Bitcoin and pump the price. In my opinion, this assumption is wrong. Even if it was a large number of people, it was still less than 1% of the human population. If 2% of the population is in the next bubble, the next bubble will be two times bigger.

Ever heard of market cap? Ever realised it's a load of shit? Ever realise that 68 billion is pure fiction? Ever realise that 800 billion or whatever of actual dollars would push the market cap to tens of trillions?

Nope?

Do you want a hug?

Do you want to be trepanned?

Do you want a reacharound?

There is a lot of assumptions and wrong information are going on there.

You would have to be either desperate or hopeless to write something like this or even worse you would have to be ill mannered, the only other option is being incredibly ignorant.

Let's go one by one, when bitcoin was around 800 billion dollars and dropped to 68 billion dollars that does not mean there was 700+ billion dollars sold in bitcoin. That is not how marketcap works at all, you can say bitcoin worth $20k today, you can ban people from selling any under and the price will be 800 billion dollars once again without buying or selling a single bitcoin.

The point there is not how much was sold it is how much it worth, so without buying or selling 800+ billion dollars you can change the marketcap very easily. Even a person who buys 10 billion dollars worth of bitcoin today can make it go back to 20 thousand dollars (which they won't because it would be suicidal investment).

Also, there was a lot of credit card and purchases in the post which is not entirely true, it was semi-true because yes there was people like that but it doesn't mean ALL of the increase came from that at all, there were a lot of people who outright purchased some with their savings account money as well.

Where is this math? In all post i didn't found anything being calculated.


If you think market needs $800 bil $ to come back to ath you simply don't know what marketcap is.

This scenario is unrealistic but will help you understand:

99 % of bitcoins are in hodler hands. None of them will ever sell. Now how many $ needs to be put into market to pump btc to 1 000 000$ ? Imagine the worst case scenario. Someone will put 1mil $ buy order and hold till he buys all remaining coins. 200 000 * 1 000 000 = 200 bil (its less than your 800 bil and we have 1 mil $ btc with marketcap 21 t $ and its maximum in this scenario. In real world all remaining 1% coins won't be dumped on him. Others will jump with hype helping him or even boosting price to 2 mil) - that's mathematically explained.

Next scenario:

Bitcoin is worth 20k $ marketcap is around 450 bil $ and is getting hacked by quantum computer giving hackers access to all bitcoins. How many $ will hackers be able to get out from market? 450 bil? Will they be able to sell all coins for 20k $ each? Or few min after hack everyone will know that and everyone close to computer will cancel buy orders and none will ever create new buy order. They will probably take maximum of 100 mil before bitcoin reaching 1 cent and marketcap equal to 200k $.

There is also another thing showing that you are wrong.

Almost every ICO supports bitcoin and ether (and majority of new coins was bought by those) sometimes litecoin, monero and others. But even ether litecoin monero was bought mostly by BTC during their ICO. That gives us strange circle of pumping. They are also traded and pumped to current price mostly by bitcoin (alt/btc pair).

Why is that important?

1- When you sell for example google shares for 10 mil$ you decries marketcap evaluated in $ pulling out $ from market - when you are selling EOS to BTC you are decreasing marketcap evaluated in $ without pulling out $. When you then sell bitcoin to $ to pull them out of market you decrease marketcap again !
2- imagine that scenario. All bitcoin coins have marketcap of 10 bil $. Than there is ETH ico and all coins was bought for 5 bil $ in bitcoin currency. Than we have EOS ico and all coins was bought for 3 bil $ in ETH. We have marketcap equal to 18 bil but only 10 bil cames from $ and 8 bil cames from strange circle of pumping (total markecap pumping). In real its not that black and white but i just wrote that overpainted picture to better explain my thoughts. Now lets w8 for few years to pump each other to current price.

Now imagine that some coins are still tradable only by bitcoin. It means that when btc/usd price is growing alt/usd is instantly too because its calculated through alt/btc and btc/usd.

I assume reading that the Zimbabwean or the Venezuelan currency is as cheap as the wc paper. You can burn it also in the coldest days to warm yourself also  :P
Poor countries and poor people sadly  :-\
Now bitcoin can come back from nowhere even from $3 like it always did and it will do it this time also.

Rich people. They now know poor are in debts and cant buy anymore so they will start buying. They dont want that Bitcoin is owned by poor. So they will buy them out.

The OP lost me when he compared the total crypto market cap of $800b at the peak to today's bitcoin market cap. Does the OP even realize that $800b was made up of bitcoin plus hundreds of other cryptos?
What a f'g tool, someone so stupid should be banned. There really should be a limit of iq to post on these forums, and this fucktwat doesn't make the grade.

There shouldn't be any IQ requirement just maybe guidelines to use a spell checker like chrome has to communicate better.   If the average IQ is 100, that means any product for the public has to be as simple as possible to use.   Even educated people dont want to have to study something for more then a few seconds to understand how it operates and generally how to proceed.    Your average doctor or whatever profession can easily get confused by operation on a computer compared to somebody with the benefit of usage every day and familiarity.

I dont see Bitcoin really making it big without stressing the ease of use as one of the important parts of its makeup.   We cant be surprised the public bought in credit cards to use in acquiring crypto because the average citizen does not have much in way of savings to place in BTC, they have credit scoring and a job that finances that.  Its typical of how a system can get warped by outside factors however it was ordered previously.  Crypto doesnt react well to leverage because its already a system that has no leeway in its active supply where as other commodities expand their supply massively in response to demand

I think I understand your way of thinking, but unfortunately it is wrong. The size of the market cap is related to the price, but only at a certain point. If more people decide to only hold BTC and do not sell them and do not even trade them, then the market cap needed to raise the price will decrease many times. In other words, a lot depends on the belief that Bitcoin will succeed. When the bear market is over, investors will start buying BTC again and trust will grow, then these proportions will change and you will need much less money to inflate the price to a very high level.

Fuck off with your market Cap metric. It is an illusion and falsely represents some bullshit value that is meaningless. BTW it was never at $800B.

https://i.imgur.com/3kDJioi.png

It wouldn't necessarily require $350B to move the price to the 2017 high, either.

Marketcap is the current BEST price multiplied by the amount of coins.
This is not the amount of money invested in Bitcoin!!!!!

This is a false metric.


Fictive example

Let's say 15M coins mined.
Let's say you owned 21000 coins @ 10k.
You sell them all at once in a market order.
The price of bitcoin plummets by $1k because you buy away a lot of sell orders and trigger peoples stop-losses.

Suddenly the marketcap goes from $150B to $135B.
Yes suddenly $15B marketcap evaporates. It's not like people sold $15B in Bitcoin.

$800bn never came in to the crypto market, it probably wasn't even 1% of that number. Similaly $750bn has not left the market. If you understood how marketcap worked then you would understand that. I see you constantly spreading negativity of late here, do you have some vendetta against bitcoin? Why do you not just leave if you have nothing positive to say?

I have no particular beef with negativity. Constant positivity is irritating as hell.

What I can't be abiding is overt stupidity and almost ALL posters like this are stupid as fuck, or rather they know perfectly well that approximately 0.5 seconds of pontification would unravel their 'argument'.

That is only theoretically,many people still believe in Bitcoin and the price already ever go that high so it can happen again, with mass adoption the price will go back and maybe pass the highest price, it's not difficult to achieve those numbers if there are big companies or investors want to invest

This is insanity. I suspect this "btc-room101" guy is once again kwukduck or any other alt that is obsessed with calling bear markets.

As far as QE "not coming back", this is nonsense. Suspension of QE is only temporary. Debt is too much for it to stop, no president will want to face what it would take to reduce debt thus no more QE.

In Europe many countries will stop getting EU helicopter money soon and this will lead to many tensions, which will lead to them to enter in panic forcing more rounds of QE if they want to keep the thing going. It's a point of no return. Same for US.

Manipulation of BTC valuation against fiat is only temporary, it cannot be suppressed forever. BTC features are still desired, fundamentals never changed.

This is the importance of institutional investors, they are waiting for an entry point largely recognised as the bakkt which is being implemented next month. Anything is possible after that

We still hae lot of money from the people so we need that people to get involved into the bitcoin purchase for the prices to be recovering but again it is not going to happen tomorrow or next day,it is going to be a long journey.But still we have some people called whales who can bring large amount of capital into this market any time.

wow, reading the OPs statement was a minute of my life I'll never get back. I also love the fudging of numbers like counting the entire market value as the bitcoin only value a year ago and then only doing the bitcoin value now to make it seem like it was a much larger drop.

The "Why tell ppl lies?" of the title is all that needs to be said about this thread. Ironic.

I agree, both constant negativity and constant positivity are not needed and not helpful in any way. If OP was sometimes negative and actually wanted to engage in sensible discussion I wouldn't say what I said. But everything he posts is negative crap that as you said can be unraveled in a matter of seconds.

OP dont know how marketcaps works.

A marketcap is not made of actual money, but from speculation. The previous buyers didnt put more money into it, only the new ones are doing it, so when you look at the marketcap, the value do not represent the initial value that was put there, only the apparent value.

A injection of 800 billion dollars would put bitcoin on par with gold marketcap, which is 7 trillion. Perhaps it would go even higher than that.

Just imagine a order of 800 billion dollars eating the sell book. Imagine how many thousands of orders would be fulfilled until these 800 billion are spend.

I agree with you to some extent but I believe that bitcoin was not like this in the past.  We could see that it started from notting and become something and that is the major reason why people have hope in it.  I think bitcoin is going to grow because of what happened in the past.

Love it when people still think the Federal Reserve is able to influence Bitcoin this much, they didn't print billions to dump on anything, and sorry but it isn't just people in USA buying Bitcoin with their precious dollars too.

Not that I'm going to provide a more scientific or mathematical alternative, but it might be worth reminding that just because there is price and numbers, doesn't mean every single coin is backed by some US dollar somewhere in someone's pocket. A lot more people are "owning" and "trading" Bitcoin without even actually moving or controlling a single satoshi.

I think the Federal Reserve has an influence on all prices to some extent because they are part of the backing to the dollar and control interest rates.   Recently they indicated they might slow down or stop raising rates any further then this level which is significant for future Dollar strength speculation.   Since almost everything is sold in dollars, with value having dollar as a denominator it can make even BTC less bearish

But DXY or Dollar index has not moved down.  Tides take time to turn
I assume BTC has an ongoing headwind


I've thought for a long time its not USA based buyers of BTC that are real movers, its more the foreign recipients of Dollar or all the places that USA imports from.   They repatriate their currency via BTC to the rest of the world and could be a large part of usage and strength behind the market


I like that talk through but I think there is more coins circulating then 1%   Its no negative for people to keep reusing the currency, if anything I believe we have more to thank them for the value that exists to BTC.   But yea the whole market cap thing is a guesstimate, working turnover probably matters far more.   Same goes for all the exchange pricing, I only really value real world usage especially

I believe that investors from all over the world will come and join crypto there is no impossible for the capitalization to grow upto a Trillion bucks.what you are mentioning who invested last year is just a small part of the target markt of this community ,if the mass adaptations happens in future,theres nothing impossible to reach the hype again

the money is circulating and the money currently available is much different bro.
it looks like you have to stop spreading panic, if you can't stand please leave here because everything you say is just a superficial mindset.

My point was to show 2 extreme examples to help OP understand that marketcap is not amount of money need to be put into market to boost to current price. I agree with you that there are more than 1% circulating coins.

sry for necroing. just stumbled over op headline...

guess the come back wasn't a lie.  :D

I love these throwback accounts posting stuff that went out of fashion in 2015. Back then this place was crawling with them. After 2017 they really weren't trying very hard. Now they're wonderfully quaint. Fodder for newcomers to enjoy.

fun fact: somehow a tweet from Jstolfi got into my feed. hilarious. he is literally still shitting on bitcoin calling it a ponzi - almost asked him if he had plans to return to btctalk. (I heard he had logged in here as of lately).

now that they are all gone I almost miss them. but I guess not even the hardest masochist can stand the constant flak in WO for long.

I do not miss them. By the time Stolfi is on his death bed I am certain at least 1-2 solid years of his life will have been spent screaming about Bitcoin. What a stunning waste.

In 2014/15 it was still possible to believe it could go nowhere so these people could make the back of your mind twitch, if you're weak. If they insist the same thing after that they are pissing in the wind as we say.  

yes, reality leaves the moronic haters no choices. 2021 will be tough for them.

Remember the days of "it's going to zero!" and "cheap coins, cheap coins!" ? Lol

Ha! Prof. Bitcorn was the same. Last I remember from him he was telling people to "mark his words" that 20k was the retail top and would never again be reached. Some people just love to double down on their losing positions.

Price wise, Bitcoin was in a very scary place when this OP was written, so I'm not surprised at the sentiment. The market was in free fall and dripping through the low $3,000s. It was very easy to imagine it failing below the 200-week MA, or retesting the 2013 ATH and/or failing below it, things Bitcoin had never done before that would suggest an end to the historic bull cycle. If things had gone differently and BTC traded sub-$1K after the post-2017 bubble pop (something that seemed very plausible not all that long ago) this discussion would sound a lot different.

All dependent on when you arrived. If you've been through one cycle before then you're fully immunised to proper panic, or at least I felt exactly zilch from 2017 onwards other than boredom.

If newcomers could upload the experience of complete boom and bust into their sweaty minds they would come out the next real one in a vastly better position. Either way post 2017 it was shit but the idea of it dwindling to nothing had become outlandish. Far less so in 2014/15.

Basically the majority of bitcoin buyers who regretted buying at the 2017 big rise can now sell without losing the money that they were crying about for 3 years now or even make a profit, or they can keep it and wait, HODL ;)

They should keep it, they have waited 3 years HODLING their coins, another all time high is looming, they have extend their patient for the past two years why letting it go now, unless you badly need money because of the pandemic, but if you can still keep on, why not HODL for another one year, things are looking better now, they are going to regret it if Bitcoin reach $30 k next year.

I wish I had your boredom. in it since 2013 and literally every bear cycle almost broke me in different angles. looking forward for the next opportunity to fuck up  :D

I remember Dec 2018 like it was yesterday, and it was pretty much as bad as that $200 support break back in 2015, I think it was in Aug 2015 or so. Basically it was a scary time also because BTC traded at $200 forever and when it broke $200, we all assumed it would go to double digits but the next day or so it quickly went back above $200 and that was actually the LOWEST that I have ever seen bitcoin trade since I got involved with crypto. And don't say, "why didnt you get a loan and buy all the BTC you could at $175?" Because I didn't know it was the bottom.

Just like this individual felt in Dec 2018, sure it seems like a good idea to buy at $3200 back in that time however the sentiment was negative and looked like BTC would go to maybe triple digits back then. So it doesn't matter how many cycles you have been through, if you got a large percentage of your savings tied into crypto, those times sure must of hurt.

as they say The internet is written in ink.
topics like this are good historical and educational things to read for everyone specifically the starting post with the following FUD:

in fact it is so much more important for people to read this type of topic years after they are created so that they can learn about FUD, what it looks like, who spreads it and why.

The Dec low was harsh over xmas as well but the lows before that after 2013 peaking seemed far worse, a desolate wasteland of a failed idea type meta and it wasnt that but overall I think there was a ton more doubt and it reflected in price in that first instance that I remember.    The halvening in 2016 probably helped more then at first realised to break the back of that negative sentiment.  
 The reason this thread is worth referring back to is that it will repeat most likely, both negative sentiment and the reference to QE being ended.    You will know when QE ends because it will go boom, it'll get your attention whether interested or not.   They cant unwind or neutralise QE, Japan hasnt managed to reverse 30 years of decline with decades of QE because its not a positive or productive measure, its disruptive and a last resort but now its commonplace.  Its likely we are going to witness once in a generation events before its over and somehow BTC is woven in and involved in that process both positive and negatives.   Volatility is a rising trend is my general take so it wont just be price appreciation but more upsets and tests along the way I reckon.

Whoever found this topic and made it comeback deserves a big applause from me.

@600watt
Thanks for making me laugh at people who doubted bitcoin and how it could never come back.

I mean we are in bitcoin world and made it to $20k once, why do people think that it was only for once and why do people think that it is impossible for bitcoin to do something again after it has already done it once?

There is obviously always a way that bitcoin could do the same thing again and breach over $20k, if we did it once that means we can do it again. What we need to do now is stay calm and not get hyped about bitcoin and act like we deserved and earned this place, if we act like this is a hyped price that is ballooned up that would turn this into a bubble that could burst but if we act like the price is settling where it should be, we will stay here.

  I think you had the 2018 sell-off that caused you to panic and lose confidence in Bitcoin. Actually, there are many people who suffer like you but they choose to be silent. The sad thing about manipulation is that manipulation is so common that it can lose all greedy people in just a few days.
So when participating in the crypto market, be sure to have a safe method of making money. manipulative organizations are still growing stronger so in the coming days, we also need to be careful about the correction after the rising streak.
Ps: I would say that Bitcoin can surpass ATH and may continue to fly even higher in the future. Do not be too pessimistic about Bitcoin because in the future it will soon be legalized worldwide.

I can create a program for you to turn you into a Bitcoin warrior monk. It basically involves me telling you how to feel. Simply send me a text message and I will reply with the emotion you should be feeling. The only thing you need to do to succeed is obey me completely. If you do this you will do very well, grasshopper.

It's not about being hardened against panic. If you'd feel exactly the same at $800 as you would at $16K then good on you, but I'm mainly interested in the actual trajectory of the market.

The point was that in early December 2018, regardless of any fundamental factors, it was very possible Bitcoin was going to fail below the 200-week MA, the previous 2013 ATH, etc. This would have, in my opinion, ended Bitcoin's historic bull market. We could even be trading in triple digits right now if things had gone that way.

Obviously things didn't go that way and I see that scenario as virtually impossible now, but as is the case in all bear markets, you can't recognize the bottom until it's very far away in hindsight.

I guess I was totally right 2 years ago. Rich people are buying. The institutions where rich people have their wealth stored. Bitcoin is moving from hands of 99% to hands of 1%.

The OP is not simply wrong now - he was wrong then.