Bitcoin Forum

On the back of a grueling quarter, the bitcoin price could still see tougher times ahead. One analyst over at Bloomberg sees the flagship cryptocurrency possibly heading toward $1,500.

Indeed, bitcoin had a dismal November, as part of a difficult year overall for the crypto market, though the past few days have seen slightly more stability from crypto’s largest asset. However, today it seems that the selling has resumed. Bitcoin has dropped nearly $200 already today, from just over $3,900 down to $3,739 as of the time of writing.


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BTC/USD | Bitstamp


In a report released today, Bloomberg technical analyst Mike McGlone explained that bitcoin is currently stuck in stiff downward momentum.

According to a chart indicator called the Average Directional Index (ADI for short), BTC is at a peak not seen since July. If the indicator is high, it shows high levels of downward trend vigor. McGlone said that he sees a possible price target of $1,500 for bitcoin. Hitting that price would mean another 60 percent fall from its current rate, which is already down 81 percent from last year’s all-time high.

“There’s little to prevent fading bitcoin prices from reaching the continuous mean of $1,500 […] A rush to the exits among investors seems to be in place,” said McGlone, who fingered the Bitcoin Cash hard fork and tax-based selling as catalysts for the downward momentum.

    “The hard fork was a key trigger that signaled the technology is way too nascent. You had these dicey characters threatening to destroy each other and institutions said ‘It might be best if we stay away from this for a while.'”

The Bloomberg report also mentions the recent SEC crackdown on ICOs and the commission’s hesitancy to approve a bitcoin ETF.

November, as CCN reported, saw bitcoin dive over 40 percent, racking up the largest monthly price drop for the asset in the past seven years.

“The trend is lower prices, lower volatility, reduced speculation, and the preponderance of stable coins,” said McGlone. He indicates the need for crypto assets to set a firm price base. Unfortunately, “we’re not near that base yet,” he said.

Other crypto experts see bitcoin dropping further as well, but some see a bottom possibly higher than $1,500. Last month CCN reported on Anthony Pompliano’s thoughts on a bottom for bitcoin.

“85 percent from the all-time high is about where we’ll end up. Puts it around $3,000. Came close over the weekend but probably a little bit more to fall,” Pomliano stated.

On the flip side, there is still the $15,000 end of year forecast from Tom Lee, though that target appears less likely by the day.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-will-likely-fall-to-1500-bloomberg-analyst/

Heard a lot from many 'experts' on Twitter before, not surprising to see this kind of target from them though. They are only saying something that is possible, and basically, everything is possible in cryptocurrency, I can say that Bitcoin will take another down if we are comparing it from where it got dumped in 2014 for more than 87% and at the same time it also has a probability to take another upward movement if we are seeing it from its current state(oversold).

Heard a lot about it and literally, it numbs me.

more of these bear calls, please! :D

i'm so glad all these bearish predictions are coming out of the woodworks, especially in the mainstream media like this. it's no coincidence that when everyone was expecting new ATHs and a perpetual bull market, we crashed. now that i'm seeing targets like this (and also sub-$1000 targets as well), i'm getting more confident that we're getting close to capitulation.

$1500 isn't off the table entirely, but i'd rate the chances pretty low.

I wonder if the nocoiners are having absolute fun when they report marginal FUD like that. Don't they understand that $1500 per coin is literally better and more attractive for potential investors?

Literally the value of 1500 is better for new investors buying BTC and the increase is inevitable then they invite their partners or relatives to invest in BTC,they tell us that the value has entered the 20K more or less like that and the results will continue to grow by word of mouth.I think a fall of to 1500 won't happen even though it's possible but it remains in my own feelings and analysis the fall won't be that bad.

I hear you and amen, brother! Bitcoin's struggling as it is, and this doesn't change my perspective one bit, especially (or only?) because this is one of the guys who said Bcash was responsible (come on!).

I want all these guys to gather their nerves and come out and lay it down. Because people are thinking the "weak hands" and the naysayers are all out but no, I think many of them are still in, hoping for a quick recovery so they can minimise their losses.

I'm not convinced the culling is over so yes, let's whittle it down some more.

Here it is a new twist in the market now, well we need to be ready to adapt any kind of situation. If this prediction works I believe a lot of investors will lose hope in cryptocurrency. We need to prove it by holding our patience.

It's always a positive when experts start to start getting bearish, means the bottom is getting closer. The BCH hash war shouldn't dissuade institutions, it should encourage them, they can take advantage of the infighting and consolidate their own positions. It must allow them to realize that under the right control they could profit greatly.

CCN articles and Bloomberg analysts can only make me laugh.
Nobody isn't going to be shocked by such price dump.A guess that all the hodlers are going to sell bitcoins,in order to buy some Christmass gifts. ;D

Unless if those people who do report FUD are the investors itself.  ;D

Incredible! It looks like Bloomberg has found a crystal ball !!  ;D ;D
In fact, this type of information is another attempt to make panic among inexperienced investors and price manipulation.

That means there is no need for continue holding. Bitcoin has been attacked and many micro investors are seriously losing money  this year than any other years. I believe that governments and some big financial institutions are attacking bitcoin in other to be able to have control over it in future. If bitcoin is going down to $1500 then there is no need of holding it now.

$1500? Thats too much conservative.

They should be calling for three digits already.

It's only the other side of the same coin where people here scream to the moon.

I agree with you guys, if Bitcoins price goes to these levels I would gladly accumulate more than right now. There is possibility for that could happen, but I would not say that this scenario is likely to happen, despite of that I am being prepared for that scenario.

Saying an analyst predicts something is literally worthless. They don't know what's gonna happen in the market any better than you or I. The only reason that is news is because its an extreme view. Price has been going down the past few days but that's after it recovered back to 4200. November drop was a reaction to bitcoin cash turmoil (hard fork / hash war / chain split). Price had been very stable. I think we'll get a very stable 3000s/4000s price as the bottom now maybe until mid-2019. But I'm just another random dude telling you what I predict just like that analyst is. do your own research don't believe some random person no matter what their title is, unless they have a time machine it don't matter.

https://i.imgflip.com/2ocil2.jpg (https://imgflip.com/i/2ocil2) (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)

Let them keep on talking while Bitcoin doesn't really care about what these so-called experts are talking. Rising or falling it doesn't matter anyway, Bitcoin price is still stable at this rate. They will all be another story that will be written in the history again, Bitcoin will survive and no, it is not dying.

How can I forget? WHY did I forget? Hahaha. Yes! They are the whale-cumulators. They order their minions to report FUD, and manipulate the price lower themselves, until the plebs are capitulated from the market. When they are done accumulating, watch them hail Bitcoin as the currency of the "new" economy. 8)

Lol. If you observe the noisy ones, they pop up seasonally. You're right that these people are probably linked to whales trying to scare others into selling. Of course if you don't have as much coins as whales do, this market movement would hurt. This is where your backup plan should kick in so you can put your attention somewhere else.

Doesnt't care, yeah. We are at 3 200 and going down fast.  And yes, it will not die. For enthusiasts like in this forum and may be some criminals. But for most common investors it is already half dead. If it really will go below 3 000, it will be a full capitulation. And it will take 3-4 years then the price will return even to 6 000 level. Or may be it will never return..

And you could have said the same thing 4 years ago, and been dead wrong. No reason to think this is any different than any other Bitcoin crash. I'd say the only difference is that instead of having nothing on the horizon four years ago as everyone abandoned Bitcoin, this time around we have multiple Wall St firms building exchanges and custody solutions and trading desks and whatnot to offer Bitcoin to a whole new group of people that have a TON of money.

When retail investors come back to the Bitcoin market in say two years they're just gonna find it a hell of a lot harder to buy Bitcoin because big money will already have eaten up MILLIONS of bitcoin by then. Institutions have already bought up hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin from panic selling noobs this year. Smart retail investors are doing the same thing, buying as much as they can from panic selling noobs to accumulate cheap Bitcoin now.

Well, in my opinion this crash is different. Because of Wall St firms you mentioned. When it was millions of dollars, yes, there were many individuals. And many of them were believers of new tech. Others wanted to hiide their payments. They can sale because of panic, because they need fiat right now. But Wall Street is different. Today they are playing with bitcoins, tomorrow with gold and after that with some derivatives or orange juice. They can leave some market very fast (in fact, this is happening right now). For them it is just another of thousands markets. And if they lose trust in crypto, well they can return in years or decades. Another problem is adoption. Many retailers refused Bitcoin this year, even Stripe. And the worst is the world crisis that many economists predict in 2019-2020. In every crisis, such instruction investors will leave high-risk markets. It is a rule.
I’m surprised that everybody if this forum are making analogies to past crashes. How many crashes Bitcoin had before? 3-4? Why everybody think that if something happened 4 times, it will be the same this time? Everybody talking of butcoin as a currency. But it is not. May be it will become a world currency and maybe not. Over the past 3 years, Bitcoin has not come close to becoming a currency, but is has become a high volatile speculative asset.

Yeah, I doubt that's going to happen.  I also doubt bitcoin is going to be near $1500 by the end of the year, nor do I think it's going much further in that direction.  These TA people drive me nuts with their predictions, and more often than not they're wrong.  Bitcoin prognosticators are even less accurate than weather forecasters, and that's saying something.

The golden rule of investing (well one of them): no, this time isn't different.

People thought the same way you are when Bitcoin was $200 in 2015 (I was one of them).
And Wall St has barely entered the market. So not sure why you are saying that somehow that makes this crash different.

Generally the worst thing you can do is assume that this time is different. The last boom wasn't different than any other boom, and people who thought the price would just keep going up and never crash were wrong cuz they decided "this time is different", and you are doing the same thing now.

But hey, all it means is that you're gonna miss getting in at the bottom of this cycle. Doesn't bother those of us who are loading up accumulating cheap Bitcoin now.

most price predictions are always going to be wrong. even if one eventually gets it right, timing it is nearly impossible. i wouldn't conflate prediction with TA though. the ability to predict exact prices isn't what TA is useful for. it's useful for things like establishing trend direction and price levels where high volume exchanges took place. TA isn't about crystal balls---we can't know which level price will stop at. but it can give us an edge in recognizing when the market is reversing and why.

also, haven't you noticed how much better weather forecasters have gotten in the last several years? they were a joke when i was a kid, but they're pretty accurate now. :P

The time will show. But 17 years ago when DotComs crashed, many people had said the same, “no, this time isn't different”. And lost everything.

Lololol.  Needs more love.

People can said and predicted anything about crypto but most of the time the prediction is only based on history data, crypto currencies are unique coin, they are decentralized coins, if all of us want to cooperate and got the same mind then we can break any limit, but the problem now is the whales prefer to manipulated it for their own profit and the investors run away once they saw the price keep on declining,if this situation keep on continue we will see a more horrible bottom

Only the people who invested in shit companies, the corollary today would be investing in shit altcoins and shit ICOs. Bitcoin is the Amazon of the crypto market. Pretty sure nobody who held Amazon stock through the dotcom crash into today is complaining about making a crazy amount of money.

"No this time isn't different" is a general rule of investing, it has nothing to do with trying to say oh this one thing one time happened so that means this time is gonna be like that one time in an entirely different market and so the rule doesn't apply. Your logic and argument is extremely weak.

I'm not sure that Bitcoin is Amazon. Bitcoin is slow, it consumes a huge amount of electricity, and it is almost immposible to make any useful changes because miner groups or big exchanges will block any decision. Its only advantage that it was first and that is why it is more popular. This could change.

Comparing it to "Amazon" is not very flattering. But Bitcoin is still the most secure censorship-resistant cryptocurrency out there. Bitcoin is not merely a consumer payments product, it is hard money.


Because it is truly decentralized.


It could. But with what cryptocurrency? 8)

Fake news :)

Who knows) May be it isn't created yet or so unpopular we never heard about it or may be it would be Ripple

if you try to make block time much faster, you start sacrificing security. you'll see much more orphaning and users should thus require more confirmations before consider a payment settled. blockchains with faster block times are just less secure.

it does consume a lot of electricity, but so does the banking industry. so does gold mining. if bitcoin is to take a chunk out of their market shares, maybe it's justified considering the level of security bitcoin's POW provides.

miners blocking segwit showed that BIP9 was an ineffective way of implementing soft forks. the UASF approach might be a better route.

haha, keep on dreaming. Doge coin has a better chance of being it than a centralized shitcoin such as Ripple :D

as for changes that you are talking about above, it is not hard at all but the problem is that the "change" needs to be actually good and not controversial with lots of downsides and security issues.
if you have a proposal we are open to hearing it! but it seems like you only have imagination.

Hahahaha! I believe you are still in the initial stages of your cryptocurrency journey, sorry for laughing. But you remind me of "me" when I discovered all this craziness. I also thought Bitcoin was this "slow, old" technology that needed to replaced by something newer, and faster. Then the more I learned, the more I found that Bitcoin, with all its imperfection, is the "gold standard" of cryptocurrencies.

I am very confident you, and every newbie, will discover it too. The misinformation will be memefied.

It is just a number which even if said is not true. Because market will not fall below 3k so any prediction done by people that it will reach to 2k, 1k etc are just imaginary. We are looking for 2019 to begin positively and if it can rise to 10k and above in next couple of months it will be great.

It might fall and might be not but honestly i don't believe in predictions anymore as all predictions like this did not happen as desired and many famous experts in predictions are now became foolish because of this bearish market in which still in effect so better lets wait and see for what will be the next for this market.

really? I never had that phase. and I have started with bitcoin back in one of the most FUD filled times back in 2014 when price was falling hard and here was filled with a lot of FUD about how bitcoin is dead, something like these days actually.
and every time I heard someone say some altcoin is better than bitcoin with some "fury" I knew they are full of it trying to hype it up to pump it up...
specially a coin like ripple which is obviously centralized...

No, my 4.5 years "cryptocurrency journey" is about to end. And yes, naive idealists make me hahahahaha)

Yes, thank you. I really believe that imagination it one of the most great human qualities.

Ripple was just an example. In fact, I think that it will be a cryptocurency of group of banks or state project like US or EU. And yes, It will be centralized. You see, nobody cares about some decentralization. 99% don't even know what this word means. But what they Does know, that currency must be a) fast b) comfortable c) cheap to use.

So, when world banks for example would decide (maybe they already did) to create their own cc, they would make it cheap and fast and confortable. And freely converted to fiat via one button push on Iphone screen. And with Paypal support.  If they also would spend some billions for advertising (they should), well... Bitcoin would be a curency for small groups of geeks and criminals. With its cost about $100.

Yes, I do have some proposals. Not tech, because although I studied the BTC blockchain technology (I am a programmer), I do not consider myself an expert enough. But I have some propaganda ideas.

As I answered before, Ripple was just an example. And yes, I think that centralized currency is that what modern consumer wants.

At this point nothing will surprise me, the market is moving in a very erratic way and nothing tells me that it is going to become stable soon so most likely the crash that we are seeing is going to continue for some more months which is terrible news for those that are holding their coins.

only if you sell.

all you have to do is continue holding and wait for the next boom, as has always been the case. If the bear market continued and the price kept going down for a few more months that isn't terrible news for holders, that is great news because it means there's plenty of great buy opportunities - and then you can have more to hold! I don't think the price will sink for months though, we're probably now in the bottom range of the price. The only reason it sunk this low is because of the BCH fork panic selling, otherwise the price had stabilized $3k higher. Looks like now $3000s is roughly where the price will stabilize for lets say the next half year. Only time will tell of course! But I can tell you one thing for sure, as a holder, nothing would excite me more than to be able to continue to buy in the $3000s (or even lower!) for the next half year. I'm almost as excited right now as I was last year during the bull run!

Really i don't think the price will go so down, anyway is better to hold. I will hold even if goes more down i will still hold because i think we will have a good price when bull run will start or when a big news will come.

Same here. People are too stupid to realize that this is very likely the last ever opportunity to buy coins at these levels. It boggles my mind that even some of the olders members here are stuck in their rooky mindset. They say they believe in Bitcoin yet are afraid that the price will completely collapse. These are the times where real hodlers seperate themselves from the rest.

I'm of course not celebrating that this market has turned into a pile of rubbish, but I'm just utilizing my opportunities the best way I can instead of complaining. It won't sell off for ever. ;)

Welcome in the speculation section, the place where experts share thoughts.

honestly I really hate predictions like this, because predictions like this can make someone lose the spirit to hold bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin has fallen very far and I don't want the price of bitcoin to fall further.

Me also, I stop believing in predictions because anyone can do that and in cryptomarket everything is possible. I’d rather be prepared if we hit the bottom so I can buy more. The bottom is very near, let’s just wait for that moment and do your best decision. $1500 for bitcoin is too attractive for the investors and for sure many whales will took advantage.

Then it might need more than 4.5 years for some people to deeply learn what Bitcoin is, where it's going, and why it is indeed better than all the altcoins. Especially the centralized tokens like Ripple.

Good luck in your journey.

based on your previous answer you are confusing the different types of centralization.
we have fiat that is centralized but it is trusted and used and adopted by EVERYONE. people don't doubt about fiat. it is legitimate.
we also have shitcoins that are centralized but they are shitcoins, they don't deserve the trust because they are created by a company or some group of shady people who started it to make money. Ripple and a lot of other altcoins fall under this category and that is why they will never succeed.

on the other hand if the government that is already controlling fiat were to release a centralized cryptocurrency that would be a different thing. it will be trusted and used by lots of people because they will see it as fiat.
however that has nothing to do with bitcoin or any other decentralized currency that may exist out there. specially since bitcoin and the likes of it are global and cheap to use while centralized coins (gov-coin) are limited to one country and expensive to use.