Bitcoin Forum

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Mike Novogratz, Jim Breyer, and Tim Draper are some of many billionaire investors in the traditional financial market who remain optimistic towards the long-term trend of crypto.

How are these investors able to maintain their positive stance in regards to the growth of the cryptocurrency sector following an 85 percent decline in valuation across the board?

It’s About Cycles
For the most part, high profile individual investors are able to handle severe losses in emerging asset classes and high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) because they account for a small part of their wealth and portfolios.

As is the same in real estate and other traditional markets, wealthy investors have the ability to hold onto assets and properties even during the event of an unexpected market crash or the occurrence of a bear market.

But, normal retail investors and individual traders who need quick cash to cover day-to-day operations and expenses have no other option but to sell most of the high-risk assets they hold in their portfolios.

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In bear markets, retail traders often suffer a significant loss because they are unable to handle an 80 to 90 percent drop in value and are forced into a position to liquidate their holdings. Billionaire investors and large-scale institutions, in contrast, have the luxury to hold and sustain their portfolios.

Perhaps a bigger factor that has high net worth individuals remaining relatively positive on the long-term growth of the cryptocurrency market is the historical performance of Bitcoin.

Throughout the past nine years, Bitcoin has suffered five bubble-crash-build-rally cycles wherein the dominant cryptocurrency dropped by about 85 percent on average and recovered to a new all-time high.

From $19,500, Bitcoin has dropped about 82 percent in value and the 85 percent point would be at around $2,950.

On Wall Street, most of the high profile investors that are currently involved in the cryptocurrency market have gone through many cycles like the bubble-crash-build-rally pattern of cryptocurrencies, and for a big portion of those investors, such cycles do not come across as untypical.

This year has also demonstrated to investors that cryptocurrencies as an asset class is not a fad because both cryptocurrency-related businesses and major financial institutions continue to build and strengthen the infrastructure surrounding the asset class, as seen in the efforts of NYSE, Nasdaq, and ICE.

Jim Breyer, a billionaire venture capitalist, added that the world’s best computer scientists are flocking to the blockchain space and it would not be a smart move to bet against the industry:

    “So many of the very best computer scientists and deep learning Ph.D. students and postdocs are working on blockchain because they have so much fundamental interest in what blockchain can mean. You don’t want to bet against the best and brightest in the world.”

Question is, When Will it Recover?
On average, it has taken 67 weeks for Bitcoin to recover in its past five major corrections and achieve a new all-time high. 67 weeks from the point in which Bitcoin achieved $19,500 would be the 2nd quarter of 2018.

The past is not a guarantee of the future performance of the cryptocurrency space, but it provides a hint on how the market normally performs and survives through intense sell-offs.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/why-billionaire-investors-still-remain-positive-on-long-term-trend-of-crypto/

You ask question and you give answer, it is difficult to add anything else on this issue. Some of the key things that differ large from small investors :

- they have huge amounts of money.
- they invest only small part of that in crypto.
- they can wait for years, when price is down - it is time to buy more and not to panic.
- they understand that 1 BTC is always 1 BTC, long-term there is no loss.

You did not actually write anything, this is just copy/past of whole article and only part of forum for such posting is Press (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=77.0).

I always find this a misleading statement.
If you are now holding 1 Zimbabwe Dollar then you can argue that you are not at a loss but you will never get out without a loss.
Other than that I agree.

It's all relative I guess. If you have an operation running that nets its revenue and profits in BTC, you don't lose or gain anything based on what the fiat reflection of the price does.

Overall, it seems that most of the traders and services dealing strictly with BTC are out to stack up what they have, regardless of what the price does. Sure, a small percentage needs to be sold to pay bills, but that's it.

Coming back to your statement, fiat is inflationary, which means it is supposed to lose value as time goes by. Bitcoin is the complete opposite, meaning, you'll be looking at a price going up as time goes by.

It makes me shake my head when I read things like that, too.  1BTC=1BTC is unarguably true, but it's a pretty meaningless statement for a currency.  Everyone with a brain knows that bitcoin gains and loses value by the minute.  Sure, you can say that you still have the same amount of bitcoin, but since everything is priced in terms of your local fiat currency, the purchasing power of bitcoin drops when the price of bitcoin drops.  The Zimbabwe dollar analogy was a good one to get that point across.

OP, is that gigantic photo really necessary for this thread?  It's starting to get really annoying when members keep inserting pictures that don't add anything to the discussion, and they're usually the kind of generic pics you see in mainstream media news articles.  Please stop doing that, I'm begging you.

but when your a true HODLER with a LONGTERM belief and doesn't care about BTC's price today or tomorrow ....
then 1BTC=1BTC perfectly stands, cause whatever the price does you don't lose any of that stash

i have my portion of cold wallet stash, and their i count 1BTC=1BTC, and i just try to ADD more BTC to it
i play poker for BTC, the the price can be 500-1000-20000... we still played the same blinds same buy'in etc so their stands the rule as well 1BTC=1BTC cause thats where we play for.
only @this moment when you sell or buy for FIAT it matters, but thats justy what you wanna hold the most, i prefer more BTC and try to keep my amount of BTC up so i can understand the meaning of 1BTC=1BTC and the fiat price can't affect that....

if your main reason is to get rich quick, yeah then your not happy now with 1BTC=10k and then 1BTC=3.5k
but everybody has their reason, mine is not to get rich tomorrow or next year.

One thing worth always considering is that rarely are people ever speaking from a completely impartial position, some of the big bulls you've mentioned are clearly holding a big stack of BTC and so it makes sense for them to be bullish and to encourage others to enter the market. If they didn't have their own BTC you can bet they won't be so bullish.

It is obvious, it is not whether they have a huge holdings of BTC, they have the money to wait. Unlike the ordinary traders and die-hard all in BTC investors.  It is stated on one of the replies why they do not worry and believe that they will gain one day.  They have the means to wait, to buy and to accumulate without touching the majority of their fund and besides the market is always a cycle.

Billionaires have some funds to spare. They have lots of resources that even they will loss on a certain "investments" or "businesses" surely they can covered it on their other profitable investments. If you have something "big", not just big but "really big", you are comfortable to take the risks without worrying (at least) for the possibility of the loss. Only of course on something that is worth to take a shot.


Hope you understand this statement OP.

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Not a forum rule or something but next time, make some statements or thoughts about the article you are posting.

Even you posted a source/link, you just literally copied the entire thing here.

What exactly makes you and me different from these billionaires? They only allocate a small percentage of their worth to Bitcoin and crypto in general, and so should you do. People here act like billionaires have money to blow like it's nothing, but they don't have huge bags full of fiat lying around. Most of their worth consists of their own businesses being worth a certain amount, properties they own, etc. I doubt that most of the billionaires have even 10% of their worth in liquid means.

People need to understand that investing shouldn't be done with borrowed money or money you need in your own life. If you only risk a portion you have sitting in your savings account and won't need anyway, you will be able to walk through this bear market without any problems. It's just a matter of logical thinking.

BTC has shown multiple times it follows a strong bear and bull cycle. Its cycles have been unlike anything you'd see in more traditional markets but so far they've been fairly predictable and fairly routine. Evidently that will end at some point but given the increasing adoption and clamor around bitcoin it doesn't seem likely it will be for at least one more bear/bull cycle.

That's not really true. You might not lose anything in BTC terms but you certainly lose purchasing power or value when BTC crashes. That's what actually matters when you're running a business.


Yeah, that works when you have low overheads. The bear market should still thin the herd of those who don't, and those who weren't well-capitalized enough to ride out a year or two with much lower prices and much lower interest in Bitcoin/crypto.

you shound't remain positive about future of bitcoin because of some arbitrary cycle or because of something that happened in the past!!!

instead you shuold be positive about bitcoin only if you know the potential of bitcoin as a decentralized payment system which works globally and has a limited supply. combine that with the growing adoption and you can see the chance of growing a lot more than this is quite high that justifies investing in it.

otherwise if you just base that on some cycle that happened before then you have to also invest in a lot of shitcoins that are dead today because each of them had pumping cycles where they went up quite high then got dumped down 80%-95% and then went up again. but eventually since there was no real potential they simply died.

Well that's just the thing: growing adoption. Adoption should be reflected in demand, which is reflected in the charts, since price is the result supply and demand at any given time. That means if adoption is growing then price should rise over the long term.

That's why I think it's important to be aware of the long term trend. If the market starts breaking below the highs and lows from previous bull cycles, that would suggest the formation of a long term downtrend. That would throw into question whether adoption is really increasing.

That is to say, I don't think we should expect results based purely on past performance......but analyzing the long term trend can tell us a lot about adoption.

Exactly. And the billionaires are rich already, so there's no rush for them.
The recent drop is a great opportunity they fructify and we waste it.
When the market reverses, which in all market cycles happens, they'll become even richer and we(*)'ll be the suckers getting caught by FOMO and will buy when they'll already be largely on profit.


(*) that "we" means the impatient majority of trader wannabes, the ones that probably also bought at 17k or 19k and sold at 6k or the majority too poor to stay easy when the fiat value of their investment goes down the drain. Of course many of bitcointalkers are not part of that "we" and no disregard was intended.

it seems like people "forced the history to repeat" instead of history being repeated as a "cycle" as many think. you can not find any logical reason why price should have fallen this much and like this and no reason why the bear market should even last more than a year!
but apparently people insisted on making the history repeat itself enough times that they willed it into being a trend now. specially with hundreds of comparison of this year with 2013 as if there was any similarity to begin with!

This is something I also explain to people. This means that fiat relative to Bitcoin means you will always have an edge when holding Bitcoin.
HODL is therfore a good tactic.

Forget billionaire investors and whales. Anyone who's got any long-term view and invested for a long time in Bitcoin has to remain positive. Because what's the alternative? Keeping on the fences? Maintaining negative views? That's contradictory to the decision to become long-term investors.

If we felt positive in 2016 and 2017, why would we change out mind this year when we had prior knowledge that the lows would surely come?

Just wanted to point out how redundant it seems to me for people defined by their positivism of Bitcoin when they entered, to say they're still optimistic.

The long term trend is still very bullish. And one thing people seem to exclude from their thinking is supply. While it is limited, it is not yet fixed. Supply is still increasing each day and with it there is downward pressure on the price. The fact btc is still so bullish including that only suggests a more positive future with less supply pressure in the future as halving's occur

It is quite strange for me to make comparisons between BTC and Zimbabwe dollar, they are currencies and that's the only thing they have in common. But BTC is also store of value (at least for some people), they just hold their value in BTC because they believe this is a safer way then fiat and banks.

No one who has brains and common sense will never even consider Zimbabwean Dollar as a serious currency, not to mention store of value. 1 ZWD is today 0.00276319 USD, 1BTC is 3400 USD. Let's say I bought 1 BTC back in 2014/15 for 200-500$, it's still 1BTC, but value is go up which means I have profited and I can buy more with my money than before 3-4 years.

Different people have different views on BTC or cryptocurrency in general. Some consider it to be a currency only, some else as a store of values - many thinks it is Ponzi scheme or experiment of some three letter agency. For me this is the primary store of value and then currency.

That is exactly how they became billionaires in the first place. Odds are if you keep investing illogically and embracing too much risk you'll eventually get burned. You need to diversify your investments and only invest what you can afford to lose. The only difference between there investments and ours is that there may be more invested and they might have some people to do research and report back to them instead of us having to do it ourselves.

I agree, they have the knowledge on how to make their money work for them.  They study the market carefully, do their research and seek advice to their capable financial advisors.  They do not invest blindly, if they go into wild investment, it is just a very small portion of their investment funds.  Aside from that, they have the patience to wait for their investment to produce profit.  Many of us here think that a month investment is too long.

Billionaires are billionaires because they know how to trade. Buy now when the market is down, then sell when it goes past the all time high. If it takes a long time, no problem because they have enough to survive on

Bitcoin is a great investment if you already have a lot of money.

For people who have invested into stocks, gold, bonds and many other stuff for billions of dollars it is nothing to just put 10 million dollars into a crypto fund and hope for the best, even if it goes to one million dollars that is a billionaire losing 9 million dollars which is basically nothing. So, rich people do not care about these short term falls but only care about getting more of it when it falls down since they can afford to lose money now in order to make money later, that is how you become rich, unless you do not plan for the future you will not have a lot of money when you get old.

Moreover, when you are poor and planning how to finish the month and have 20 more days to live with 100 dollars in your pocket it is hard to focus on a future investment. That is why billionaires are positive on long term trend of crypto.

I dont believe new ATH will happen in Q2 2019. It will be way latter. Probably whole year latter. latest bottom was less then a week ago. And even if there will be no new bottom that barely give us that Bitcoin will start recovering in Q2 2019. Usually after bottom is reach there is time of stability that takes about half year.  Once recovery start it is impossible to expect it will reach 20k in just a month or two.

You need to forget the idea of them having enough to survive on, it may make things easier but that's probably not in their thinking. The majority will be perfectionists and they'll remove finances from their decisions. You'd see that they'd be just as invested in making the right decision for a $100 investment compared to a $100m investment, that's just the way that they are wired.

For some 1BTC=1BTC and for some others 1BTC= whatever value it is sold at the current moment, it really comes to the mindset to the person you are talking with, and I don't think it has nothing to do with believing in Bitcoin or not, you can be one of the biggest Bitcoin supporters and still value Bitcoin to what is really worth in Fiat ( it called being realistic because that what 95%+ of people do at the moment).

Speaking of positivity and the ability to keep holding for long-term is not only something for Billionaires only and it can be done by smallholders too, but the situation is just different from one person to another.

I don't understand how anyone can say that 1BTC is 1BTC and the value doesn't matter because even if bitcoin is not priced against fiat, it will still have a value and a price. FIAT is a great example of this. 1 dollar is 1 dollar but a dollar 30 years ago would get you a lot more than it would do today.

The difference being with bitcoin is that it doesn't have an inherently inflationary nature and so in 30 years time that 1 bitcoin should get you a lot more than it will today. Or so goes the theory.

Billionaire investers are billionaires because they have taken other peoples money.

Make of that what you will.

All money was someone else's money at some point, except money fresh out of print. Even then it cost money to produce that money. Doesn't matter if you're a billionaire or someone living paycheck to paycheck, you always take someone else's money.

Your third point is probably the most important, those that have a lot of money have long term mentalities and they can wait for a long time and accept huge potential losses if they believe in the potential of their investment but small investors most of the time are looking for fast profits and they sell at the worst possible time when they should be looking to buy coins and not sell them.

Most billionaires share one trait: patience. They know that things take time. You don't get to billionaire status overnight. You may become a millionaire overnight, but not the big B. Case in point, just take Bitcoin for example. Many became millionaires when they found out they had a bunch of early coins mined and out of luck they held them because they basically forgot about them, so they didn't apply any fundamental analysis to hold long term. The people that become billionaires understand what they are holding and accumulate during bear markets and think long term. Warren Buffet lost a lot of money when he bought shares of many of his picks, but long term he was victorious. I don't have long term doubts of Bitcoin because the fundamental analysis is clear: unconfiscatable decentralized money has to be worth $trillions when measured against infinite supply backed by infinite debt.

Billionaries know that new bullrun definitely will come again. And when it happens new and new people come in crypto again and we will have a lot of new money. So this is just a cycles...

This, even if bitcoin never becomes a decentralized currency used by everyone the fact that no government can print it or take it away in a whim must be worth a fortune and it seems the market agrees with us since even during this bear market the market cap of bitcoin still remains high, so even if there are short term variations in the price like the ones we are seeing the overall trajectory of the price of bitcoin over time must be up.

Investors have their own point of view about crypto, crypto is a technology that has a future, so they think positively with crypto.

This is why people shouldn't be stressed about the bear market.

Bitcoin isn't some magical investment that will continue to appreciate in value.

Just like any other asset, it will have its bull markets and bear markets in the short run, and right now we are in the latter. If you do think that long term demand for bitcoin will increase (i.e., more people will start using bitcoin to pay in the future, or at least store their wealth), then these short term price swings shouldn't worry you at all.

As OP said, we see that on average, bear markets take around 1-2 years to recover. I think we are close to the bottom right now, and that it is a good idea to accumulate some coins through dollar cost averaging to enter the market at a low price.