Bitcoin Forum

As the year 2018 is finally coming to end, and the so called experts and analysts are out giving their take on 2019 prices let's revind back and see some of the outrageous predictions of 2018.

1)Thomas Lee first predicted prices would touch 25k, later in the year he adjusted it to 13k and now he's not interested in making any more predictions lol.

2) Second on my list is John McAfee who tweeted bitcoins shall touch 1 million by 2020, which definitely won't be happening.

3) Third and last for now is Tyler Winklevos who predicted bitcoins prices to reach 1 Lakh dollars, and as we discuss we're no where close to even his predictions.

There're many others who predicted different numbers, but my point is simple no one can predict Bitcoins prices and buying solely on such predictions is suicidal.

 If you intend to buy bitcoins, I recommend you to do your own research, buy for the technology for it's features not based on people words hopefully you'll now make more informed choices going ahead.

Luckily I'm not so famous, but I predicted/expected 50k and I also reached the point I'm afraid of making predictions anymore.
It's easy to predict. Anyone can do it. It's much harder to actually predict it right.
And yes, investing by others' predictions is simply lottery.

That doesnt proof anything. For all year long 25k was as possible as 3k. 3k happend but noone knows how close to 25k we were. It could be 1 impuls while struggling with 6k support.... ETF, BAKKT was delayed soo manny times. Maybe that was ment to be little spark that starts the fire - new bull run - and it didnt happend on time. Now we can say thet they were wrong (not John McAfee ... his bet is still in game ... his prediction was made for 3 years ahead. Only first year ended. We still have 2 whole years) but we cannot make fun of them and "do your own research" hoping that I (newbie just entering crypto after 1h research) will be smarter that crypto influencers who are in crypto word for years.

I hope to dig this topic out in december 2020 with bitcoin worth over 1 mil dolar making fun out of "which definitely won't be happening" because in my opinion game is not over yet :)

I wouldn't call your first predictions "outrageous". $25k was easily within reach at the peak of the bull run at $20k. McAfee's prediction is obviously outrageous, as is everything that comes out of that scammer and criminal's mouth. Everything he says is motivated by personal financial gain only, as can be seen by his whole "buy a tweet for your altcoin" shitshow earlier this year.

$100k, although seeming outrageous at the moment, I don't think is an unrealistic target for bitcoin with widespread adoption, but we are looking at years down the line and not in the immediate future.

I remember 2016,when I thought that 1K USD is the "moon" for bitcoin and there's no way it can go above 1K.
Next year (2017) the price went above 17K USD...That's why I hate making predictions about bitcoin. ;D
I don't take any crypto guru's predictions about btc seriously.I like to think that making crypto price predictions is just for fun.
 

By 2014 and 2015, similar predication and summarizing of those prediction also had happened when bitcoin was first time testing $1200 levels. But, where we are trading right now ? I also was confident about bitcoin will not have this much downfall in 2018 by considering its userbase and new investors and moreover the main reason for 2014 collapse was mtgox problems hence I was confident about nothing could be repeated similar to 2014/2015. But, profit booking from whales and panic selling by others had led bitcoin prices to where we are now.

I mean to say all those speculation will become true without those mentioned time frame. I hate this topic. Please do not laugh at speculators.

This year speculation is many hype and fall was happened so majority of the prediction are destroyed. Bitcoin is the only hope in crypto platform so definitely it will going to moon in 2019 at the same time some drawback also possible in next year but mostly it will raise gradually. I think last two year was dream so I just travel dream but this year many hardles are occur in the market.

The best predictor award goes to McAfee ;D people would have come to know about the reality of him. Same like him a lot of them said the value of BTC will go upto $50k in 2018. But maximum number of them failed. However it's always better to plan for long-term.

Well its funny a lot of people actually believed them since they are people who has influence in crypto. A friend of mine calls me over the phone every time there are prediction like this and his voice is always enthusiastic about it lol. I always like the guy which is why I remind him as always that its just an speculation.

That Tommy Lee prediction is really a LOL situation. Going down to $13,000 is still a ridiculously outrageous. This dude is $10k out and that therefore proves that it is impossible to predict these prices

No one's barring anyone from making such bold and outlandish predictions that's why these people are trying to make such lavish claims in order to stay relevant. Tommy Lee is a great investor, no doubt about it, but everything he says about bitcoin markets are either turning into a flop or goes the opposite of what he 'expects' the market to do. John McAfee is nothing sort of a deranged guy who would whore his handles for the money. In reality though, anyone can make predictions out of thin air, draw some lines on graphs and say something technical to prove their points, but the market decides which way it goes and does not follow any predictions of any people--be it prominent or just the normal Joe--so it's best to avoid using these predictions as a basis for your trades and taking positions.

Exactly. If technical analysis was as accurate as some people claim it to be, then everyone would be a millionaire. It's super easy to look back at old graphs and draws lines to prove pretty much anything you want. And for every person who can say "Look at my accurate prediction from x months ago", there are 10 more who made a similar prediction that was miles off target.

I can't agree more. TA works only for those who earn on learning  orthers about TA. I even made special topic why logicaly TA should not work.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4420866.msg39412664#msg39412664
I love those who are saing that they know TA perfectly but TA sometime works sometimes not... yea.. coin toss too :)

Some other predictions made for 2018 :

https://cointelegraph.com/news/from-obsolete-blockchain-to-bitcoin-at-1-mln-predictions-of-2018

Some of them were actually pretty accurate.

Hindsight is 20/20. You have no way of knowing which were accurate and which were not prior to them happening. I could go to the Speculation Board or Google and find predictions that bitcoin will hit every multiple of a thousand dollars between 0 and 100k by the end of this year. I can find predictions that say ETF is coming and that it isn't. That Bakkt is coming and that it isn't. That institutional investors are coming and that they aren't. None of these predictions are in anyway useful because they are all guesses. Focusing on the 1% that turned out to be accurate and ignoring the 99% that didn't is simply selection bias.

As we have seen all year long, listening to "experts" for their price predictions is useless. If you believe in the technology, get involved. If you want to day trade, do so with your own knowledge and understanding and not because some else tells you to.

I remember well how at the beggining of 2018 people were saying that at the end of the year we'll have a new ATH, and there was a lot of support for this prediction amongst newbies on this forum. But as Bitcoin kept falling, people realized that there's no chance of any bullishness in this year, so the general opinion grew negative towards those perma-bulls who continued promising us quick recovery. The lesson here is that even if you are a strong believer in BTC, you shouldn't be scared to make negative price predictions, it's not the same as FUD, it doesn't mean that Bitcoin is dying, it's simply a natural part of the market.

It is easy to predict, every one of us has a different perspective on Bitcoin price prediction. In that case, most likely people looking back in the old graph which is they think that the price movement last year will happen again this but it is only a trap.

Yes, correct, do you think if that claiming an expert in prediction was the right and accurate in the analysis will keep posting it everywhere to be well known? If they know, for sure they will never tell us. Only time can tell at all.

tom lee is self-explanatory---he's a permabull who got his ass handed to him.

i think mcafee's prediction won't be that far off but his guess is too early IMO. we still have to give him 2 years to let it play out too. i personally think $300k-$500k is possible, closer to 2021 based on previous cycle magnitude and the timing around halvings.

i'm not sure what a Lakh dollar is, but the winklevoss twins predicted $320k. i don't think they gave a deadline though, so it's open-ended.

If you are famous i think someone might want to listen to your prediction or even make fun of it. Luckily you are not and congratulation on that, and yes it is very easy to actually predict since it is just up to the people if they want to listen to you. And there is nothing to lose if you will just give your own prediction, it is still an idea from the wondering mind.

$100K seems paltry compared to past bubbles. I'll acknowledge that each bubble is getting smaller in magnitude, but a mere 5x above the previous ATH is aiming way too low. On the 2017 run, we topped ~16x above the previous ATH.

I think we'll move well into six figures next time around. I also don't expect it to happen for another 2-3 years.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love for the price to go that high, but I don't think it's a realistic target for another bull run which is based mostly on speculation and trading. That kind of fiat value will only be reached (IMO) when we see widespread adoption and the frequent, daily use of bitcoin, which I think is probably another decade away at least.

You are not alone when it comes to making mistakes when it is the time to make predictions, if anyone in the forum has made predictions in the past I can assure you that they got their fair share of mistakes, and as you may guess I am including myself among those people, I remember that in the year of 2017 my highest expectation for the price of bitcoin was 2000 so I was wrong by a very wide margin.

I used to think that way too. The 2017 bubble changed my view of things. It really reinforced for me that these cycles are far more based on pure speculation than they are on actual adoption and network usage. Low liquidity combined with speculative mania creates a situation where there's really no limit on price. The price won't be sustainable at the highs of course......just talking about where the top might be.

Something else to consider is what trajectory adoption might take. It could be logarithmic (with persistently diminishing gains over time) or it could be exponential like an S-curve, which implies the largest percentage gains haven't been observed yet. In the S-curve scenario, Bitcoin could shoot to $13M a piece and I wouldn't be surprised.

Some months ago you were labelled a fud spreader for saying that the price would drop below $6000, and a mega troll bear if you thought it would drop below the $5000 level. It just shows what sort of people we are dealing with here. People buy hoping that the price rockets up in one straight line. Correction? What's that? Bear market? Does that even exist?

People who are legit into this for the tech refrain from making silly predictions that most of the times is adjusted lower because it was too unrealistic. I like Tim Draper, he sticks to his predictions and doesn't back off one single moment. Regardless of who you are, you can't even tempt him to make a new prediction, which just proves that he's not interested in the short term market.

Tim has seen the best and the worst of the market. He's balls deep into it with his money. No cheap talk here.

You're an idiot. You have no idea what "definitely" will or won't be happening, anymore than anyone else here. Make fun all you want of those who have been proven wrong, but stfu about predictions based on times that haven't yet occured.

yes, it can be said that many predictions missed the price of bitcoin for this year, even many are not ready for low prices. seeing the speculation that already existed, of course it would be funny. well, but we can't blame that. however, that is only speculation. so when you have bitcoin, don't expect too much from high speculation.

Well when we see the super speed rising on December 2017, some of us thought that Bitcoin is invisible, the correction is not going to make the price become half, and judge by the popularity and the interest of that time, it's really make sense to think that Bitcoin going to cross over 50k, but unfortunately the market said the other way, now a lot of people losing trust because the price keep on decline and the support level keep on dropping

 All prediction made on this year are not reliable , usually reason why more people keep complaining and asking why always opposite happened .people nowadays are very  confused . Lol

There is no reliable predictions I think, and the OP is right that we should make our own research and invest only on the coins we believe in and not because of someone’s advice. This market will grow without making any predictions, don’t be confused just focus on your strategies and you will succeed on your investment.

You're right, still, the market is unpredictable so those people claiming who are expert in predictions most likely they are guessing the market price movement of gathering an idea on previous graph chart to have a prediction. Every one of us is free to predict market we have our own perspectives idea, so if you think that it's worth to hold for long-term in bitcoin investment then, you should.

Speculations from the experts were really horrible experience, few said BTC might go more than 50k but here reaching 5k has become impossible. So there's no reasonable prediction.

6 digits won't be impossible, if BTC will surpass the marketcap of gold. People may treat BTC as a currency, used for everyday exchange, buying anything on any local or online stores, but for me: it's a store of value, a new era of stock market. You can't buy a pizza with BTC yet, especially when there is a long line waiting on the counter. Amazon won't accept it too because of its volatile nature, businesses would have a heart attack with the sudden up and down of the price if they accept it.

@OP, what about Jamie Dimon and Warren Buffet? I never heard anything from them this 2018, I wonder why they became silent.

sometimes they make predictions that are impossible for popularity, many experts say if this year's bitcoin price will soar very high. but what happened ? do you understand what i mean ?

Trusting or not trusting media persons, And also people who are considered authoritative is a personal matter of each person, if you are not a professional in something and do not understand the current situation, then you need to listen to the opinion of authoritative people, but when as your experience grows, it becomes serious enough - you no longer need to listen to any authority in order to make the right assessment of the situation and the correct forecast yourself.

Your admission strengthens our assumption that those hedge fund experts only know as much as the forum experts of bitcointalk hehehe.

:) I don't consider myself expert. And even the experts cannot predict the future. And, like in meteorology, any prediction, more farther the future tries to depict, the more the chances it goes wrong.

The expectation was too much despite knowing it is highly volatile and not every time market will keep on rising and this has being proven in this year. But one thing is clear people who were speculation to end, it is a bubble, will become 0, 100$ etc all failed and maker may infact bounce back and cross 10k as well again in coming 2019.

Am I the only one who would prefer it if there wasn't another bubble? A nice steady rise over a long time would screw far fewer people and improve BTC's overall perception amongst those yet to arrive. I know that's not going to happen for a few more cycles yet but it would be better for all.

I retain an open mind about what future levels might look like. A 5x rise is still enormous and at that point we would have to put the idea of BTC being chicken feed in global terms to bed for good, but it all depends on the enormousness of the funds and people who arrive.

This is a neat summation of this year's predictions.

https://www.theblockcrypto.com/2018/12/31/here-comes-the-new-year-please-stop-irresponsibly-predicting-cryptocurrency-prices/

I'm totally with you on that one. Everyone dreaming of hitting $50-100k in the next year or two is in the wrong mindset, as far as I'm concerned. Another rise that quickly will be based on pure speculation, as the rise at the end of last year was. The fall out from that is loads of people losing their money and rage-quitting out of crypto altogether, a new article every day claiming that bitcoin is dead, and derision amongst the outside world - "I'm so glad I'm not invested in bitcoin! Look at the price drop!" etc.

It would be both more healthy and more sustainable for slow, steady growth based on increasing use and adoption of bitcoin worldwide.

What to research about bitcoin, everything is explained million times, now its do you believe in that or not. Go back in time and for people who have been here a lot longer than us, what you think about them? In the end its always about believing in something. Will world adopt bitcoin or not? Maybe that will happen, maybe not? Do you think anyway can predict what will happen with 100% accuracy?
Better advice is if you intend to invest in anything I recommend not investing all you have, cause if it fails you will fail, invest how much you can afford, in that way you are secured for every possible scenario. Managing money is all about that.

sounds nice but it doesn't matter what any of us wants. :)

the boom-and-bust nature of the market makes perfect sense because bitcoin is an extremely speculative asset. this results in hyper-emotional market cycles as market sentiment goes from "new paradigm!" to "bitcoins are beanie babies!" and back.

cryptocurrency isn't the only market that moves like this. all speculative markets do to differing degrees. look at a historical chart of rhodium or other low-supply commodities with elastic demand.

also, markets love to screw over as many people as possible. whatever will cause the least pain for traders, the opposite will probably happen. ;)

There is nothing to LOL every one predicted according to trend analysis and their experience. Problem is btc donot follow any trend :)

I think a trend has been set, look at the last two halvings and what happened the followinng year. I think many will be expecting it this time, let's see if it repeats.

Those are exaggerated speculations backed up by nothing but emotions.
If you look at the pricing back then, the recurrent downfall was called for and was known by many. Its just that some smart traders knew about it and therefore took measures while the others missed the train. :P

If, as economists are only recently realising, that traditional markets are susceptible to emotion and behave the complete opposite of rational theories simply because people are anything but rational... It should be a surprise if Bitcoin were to show anything but rational behaviour.

Would love that too, a gradual rise petering off to some value that's in tandem with worth... But we ain't seeing that in our lifetimes I think.

Maximum pain, and path with most resistance. That's the Bitcoin market we must expect;)

Oh and OP, what makes you so sure McDick still can't make 2020? 2 years. A lot of time!

Just like 2011 and 2013?

Why would you expect things to change all of a sudden? It's not about dreaming. It's about respecting a reliable trend and understanding how this market moves. Slow, sustained growth always snowballs into speculative rises.

The next year or two is pushing it anyway. I think 2021 (and much higher than $100K) is possible though, based on a continued logarithmic trend.

What one guy is saying (and others are supporting) is "wanting" something and what you guys are going against is his wishes not his estimates or guesses.

I too want bitcoin to increase gradually and slowly instead of a big boom but I also understand that bitcoin is a volatile thing and it will increase a lot faster and will keep going high very quickly and go low very quickly as well. That is what bitcoin has done ever since it was created, all the increases has been a sudden thing and it will most probably keep going that way. Just because it has been like that before and most probably will happen again in the future doesn't mean we want something else from bitcoin, we are allowed to wish bitcoin to go up slowly and make a great place at high prices instead of going up and down constantly.

That is what many experimented members of the forum want for bitcoin not only because it will be the best for them it will be the best for bitcoin and everyone, but all of those that are just investing and discovering bitcoin will like to see the price skyrocketing again because they will see the past behaviour of bitcoin and they will like to see profits similar to what you could see in the past.

BTC speculation was very much exciting for the Investors but it turned to sorrows which was never expected by anyone as BTC suffered with a massive downfall. however It's better to Hodl coins in this tough market situation and now it is slowly trending let's wait patiently till the Value of BTC comes to a normal position.

I hope many of us will hold to this your great advice and do research before investing.  The speculators are in the business of moving the market within any reason backing the movements!  Remember that investing into cryptocurrencies market is a very risky venture and you should not go into it without adequate investments plan and decisions Speclators can said many things about the market but since it is not back up by adequate fact they is no way we can depend on those speculations in making investments decision.  Like you said we have to be patience with the market until the values of bitcoin rise again.